Author Topic: [IC] GMK Olivia++  (Read 145659 times)

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Offline Wilba

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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #300 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 00:42:28 »
While absolute madmen heroes like T0mb3ry or Oblotzky use successful colorways as a way to get new tooling made (good chunk of cyrillic and R0 + R5 or Space Cadet which even supported Colemak), this set won't even put out a NorDeUk kit that would make MOQ quite easily...

This is a nice colorway, but given the overwhelming popularity you could definately take a few (small) risks and run a child kit with lower profit margins (even if you sold it for less "profit", the extra 75 base kits it would help sell could be 5% of total sales) and make an even better product.

Who could take these risks? Novelkeys? Mykeyboard.eu? Daily Clack?

And what risks, exactly? Do you mean praying this sells 1,500 base kits and NorDeUK kit gets 5% (optimistic) and hits a 75 MOQ?

And what if it doesn't? Who has to buy up the MOQ? All the proxies who can't sell NorDeUK kits?

And should the NorDeUK be light or dark alphas? Or both?

It's almost like there are deciding factors other than courage.

Color me surprised.

Offline bukowski

  • Posts: 112
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #301 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 03:47:14 »
You are making it more complicated than it needs to be. Risk can and should be split - so that vendors each would have to bear just a few kits. But considering firstly how huge this run is and secondly how Oblivion v2 turned out, its weird to talk about "courage", "risk" and "buy ups" in this matter. And the NorDeUK kit should have the usual light alphas of course, since this is the original kit (why are there dark alphas/2 different versions anyway? just run a new design if you want a new look).

Offline Wilba

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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #302 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 04:36:39 »
You are making it more complicated than it needs to be. Risk can and should be split - so that vendors each would have to bear just a few kits. But considering firstly how huge this run is and secondly how Oblivion v2 turned out, its weird to talk about "courage", "risk" and "buy ups" in this matter. And the NorDeUK kit should have the usual light alphas of course, since this is the original kit (why are there dark alphas/2 different versions anyway? just run a new design if you want a new look).

Thanks for reminding me why I shouldn't post on geekhack.

I'll crawl back under a rock now.

Peace.

Offline eniigma

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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #303 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 06:19:44 »
You are making it more complicated than it needs to be. Risk can and should be split - so that vendors each would have to bear just a few kits. But considering firstly how huge this run is and secondly how Oblivion v2 turned out, its weird to talk about "courage", "risk" and "buy ups" in this matter. And the NorDeUK kit should have the usual light alphas of course, since this is the original kit (why are there dark alphas/2 different versions anyway? just run a new design if you want a new look).
tldr: switch to ansi



Offline Poesjuh

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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #304 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 06:31:00 »
The solution to everything right. Switch to ANSI and only use TKL or smaller, but not smaller than a 60%.

On a serious note; excited to see what kits will be, especially for the all-dark options :)

Offline Digitize

  • Posts: 96
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[IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #305 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 09:57:56 »
•\O_O/•.....????    my reaction the the weird conversations above but...

thank goodness I’m simple with my ANSI asssh layout.




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« Last Edit: Tue, 12 November 2019, 10:00:53 by Digitize »

Offline mrpetrov

  • Posts: 643
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #306 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 10:15:40 »
•\O_O/•.....????    my reaction the the weird conversations above but...

thank goodness I’m simple with my ANSI asssh layout.


You're lucky you were born with ANSI privilege.

Offline bukowski

  • Posts: 112
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #307 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 11:10:08 »
Thanks for reminding me why I shouldn't post on geekhack.
Sorry for contributing to your bad experience on these forums. But if you make (weak) points you should also be able to defend them. And you don‘t learn that by „crawling under a rock“ everytime you encounter the slightest bit of controversy. ;-)

tldr: switch to ansi
Yeah but then again: not exactly my idea of a „custom“ keyboard community.


« Last Edit: Tue, 12 November 2019, 11:18:13 by bukowski »

Offline KingOfMemes

  • Posts: 845
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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #308 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 11:19:06 »
Thanks for reminding me why I shouldn't post on geekhack.
Sorry for contributing to your bad experience on these forums. But if you make (weak) points you should also be able to defend them. And you don‘t learn that by „crawling under a rock“ everytime you encounter the slightest bit of controvery. ;-)

tldr: switch to ansi
Yeah but then again: not exactly my idea of a „custom“ keyboard community.
Lol how long have you been around? The second anyone hints at an alt layout you are met with "Nah **** you, it's bad lul." And don't EVER expect any indepth explanation beyond that lol. "But if you make (weak) points you should also be able to defend them." You will never get numbers, or logic, or explanations for anything. Pretentious, snide remarks are all you'll ever get. You are a drone in the hive. Act like it and fall in line.

Offline L8T

  • Posts: 96
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #309 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 12:19:55 »
Amongst this ****show i have a sincere recommendation to make : Could you please just yoink the renders of newer boards with olivia on them and add it to the post if possible? It would be nice to have it all in one place! Thanks!

Offline ian13

  • Posts: 166
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #310 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 21:07:07 »
Just to change the general environment a bit. I would like to voice out that I am extremely excited about this, whatever Olivia decides to do.
Thank you very much for bringing this back. I hope this will also be a huge success like what R1 did. :)

Offline livingspeedbump

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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #311 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 22:01:25 »
While absolute madmen heroes like T0mb3ry or Oblotzky use successful colorways as a way to get new tooling made (good chunk of cyrillic and R0 + R5 or Space Cadet which even supported Colemak), this set won't even put out a NorDeUk kit that would make MOQ quite easily...

This is a nice colorway, but given the overwhelming popularity you could definately take a few (small) risks and run a child kit with lower profit margins (even if you sold it for less "profit", the extra 75 base kits it would help sell could be 5% of total sales) and make an even better product.

Who could take these risks? Novelkeys? Mykeyboard.eu? Daily Clack?

And what risks, exactly? Do you mean praying this sells 1,500 base kits and NorDeUK kit gets 5% (optimistic) and hits a 75 MOQ?

And what if it doesn't? Who has to buy up the MOQ? All the proxies who can't sell NorDeUK kits?

And should the NorDeUK be light or dark alphas? Or both?

It's almost like there are deciding factors other than courage.

Color me surprised.

For starters, the legends that are universally available to anyone to use (languages, cadet, ascii,etc) aren't charged to the buys in any of these cases, GMK foots this bill.

NorDeUK is never easy to hit MOQ really, there is always risk inherently involved here. They can and do hit, but it is often a struggle and never a guarantee still these days.

Hard to talk about taking "risks" when you aren't footing the money, as Wilba stated rather well.

To me a lot of sensible decisions have been made in terms of the design. This is a great set, and I'm sure Olivia will knock set design out of the park.

PS, <3 you Wilba :-*
<- My Collection (so far)

Offline Puddsy

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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #312 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 22:05:21 »
tldr: switch to ansi
Yeah but then again: not exactly my idea of a „custom“ keyboard community.

i use blanks for two reasons

1) i think they look better

2) i use colemak and >lol getting a colemak kit produced in a color i actually want

adapt
QFR | MJ2 TKL | "Bulgogiboard" (Keycon 104) | ctrl.alt x GON 60% | TGR Alice | Mira SE #29 | Mira SE #34 | Revo One | z | Keycult No. 1 | AIS65 | First CW87 prototype | Mech27v1 | Camp C225 | Duck Orion V1 | LZ CLS sxh | Geon Frog TKL | Hiney TKL One | Geon Glare TKL



"Everything is worse, but in a barely perceptible and indefinable way" -dollartacos, after I came back from a break | "Is Linkshine our Nixon?" -NAV | "Puddsy is the Puddsy of keebs" -ns90

Offline KingOfMemes

  • Posts: 845
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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #313 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 22:53:03 »
While absolute madmen heroes like T0mb3ry or Oblotzky use successful colorways as a way to get new tooling made (good chunk of cyrillic and R0 + R5 or Space Cadet which even supported Colemak), this set won't even put out a NorDeUk kit that would make MOQ quite easily...

This is a nice colorway, but given the overwhelming popularity you could definately take a few (small) risks and run a child kit with lower profit margins (even if you sold it for less "profit", the extra 75 base kits it would help sell could be 5% of total sales) and make an even better product.

Who could take these risks? Novelkeys? Mykeyboard.eu? Daily Clack?

And what risks, exactly? Do you mean praying this sells 1,500 base kits and NorDeUK kit gets 5% (optimistic) and hits a 75 MOQ?

And what if it doesn't? Who has to buy up the MOQ? All the proxies who can't sell NorDeUK kits?

And should the NorDeUK be light or dark alphas? Or both?

It's almost like there are deciding factors other than courage.

Color me surprised.

For starters, the legends that are universally available to anyone to use (languages, cadet, ascii,etc) aren't charged to the buys in any of these cases, GMK foots this bill.

NorDeUK is never easy to hit MOQ really, there is always risk inherently involved here. They can and do hit, but it is often a struggle and never a guarantee still these days.

Hard to talk about taking "risks" when you aren't footing the money, as Wilba stated rather well.

To me a lot of sensible decisions have been made in terms of the design. This is a great set, and I'm sure Olivia will knock set design out of the park.

PS, <3 you Wilba :-*
What are the numbers? What are the actual risks? What is a scenario where this actually happened and someone was deeply regretful for including nordeuk? How badly, in money, could a hype set like Olivia failing a moq on nordeuk really screw someone over?

I don't use nordeuk. I'm all for telling people to just stfu about nordeuk, but nobody ever gives them a good reason to. It's always just snide remarks. "Hard to talk about risks when you aren't fronting the money". Yeah sure. Let's put these people in the dirt once and for all. Tell them about the real risk and consequences, and the realities, of a failed nordeuk kit missing moq on set that's going to set records for base kits sold. Nobody wants those answers more than nordeuk users, but nobody is ever willing to give them a straight forward answer as to why they should shut up

Offline Han

  • Posts: 19
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #314 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 23:23:25 »
Can't wait to see the kits.



Offline livingspeedbump

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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #315 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 23:24:29 »
While absolute madmen heroes like T0mb3ry or Oblotzky use successful colorways as a way to get new tooling made (good chunk of cyrillic and R0 + R5 or Space Cadet which even supported Colemak), this set won't even put out a NorDeUk kit that would make MOQ quite easily...

This is a nice colorway, but given the overwhelming popularity you could definately take a few (small) risks and run a child kit with lower profit margins (even if you sold it for less "profit", the extra 75 base kits it would help sell could be 5% of total sales) and make an even better product.

Who could take these risks? Novelkeys? Mykeyboard.eu? Daily Clack?

And what risks, exactly? Do you mean praying this sells 1,500 base kits and NorDeUK kit gets 5% (optimistic) and hits a 75 MOQ?

And what if it doesn't? Who has to buy up the MOQ? All the proxies who can't sell NorDeUK kits?

And should the NorDeUK be light or dark alphas? Or both?

It's almost like there are deciding factors other than courage.

Color me surprised.

For starters, the legends that are universally available to anyone to use (languages, cadet, ascii,etc) aren't charged to the buys in any of these cases, GMK foots this bill.

NorDeUK is never easy to hit MOQ really, there is always risk inherently involved here. They can and do hit, but it is often a struggle and never a guarantee still these days.

Hard to talk about taking "risks" when you aren't footing the money, as Wilba stated rather well.

To me a lot of sensible decisions have been made in terms of the design. This is a great set, and I'm sure Olivia will knock set design out of the park.

PS, <3 you Wilba :-*
What are the numbers? What are the actual risks? What is a scenario where this actually happened and someone was deeply regretful for including nordeuk? How badly, in money, could a hype set like Olivia failing a moq on nordeuk really screw someone over?

I don't use nordeuk. I'm all for telling people to just stfu about nordeuk, but nobody ever gives them a good reason to. It's always just snide remarks. "Hard to talk about risks when you aren't fronting the money". Yeah sure. Let's put these people in the dirt once and for all. Tell them about the real risk and consequences, and the realities, of a failed nordeuk kit missing moq on set that's going to set records for base kits sold. Nobody wants those answers more than nordeuk users, but nobody is ever willing to give them a straight forward answer as to why they should shut up

I'm just saying nothing is a guarantee with NorDeUk kits, even still. It's definitely a decision that affects the vendor as well as the designer (if its nots Drop and buying any kit they run from the start period).

I've designed my sets, I've worked on countless others with just about every vendor or designer out ther, work full time with caps (at GMK), and know the risks all too well. I've sen all the backend numbers on these international kits and know that they are consistently the worst selling kits in a set overall. I know Massdrop (from working for them for years) is sitting on a number of these international kits from all of their buys because of very low sales on thes kits.

Money is an issue here. If a smaller vendor is going to risk the kit, paying for extras of an international kit (which will be quite spendy if under 150 units, and it almost certainly will be) could really eat into their profits. For a lot of these vendors they need the profits to continue to provide the services they do. If they don't but the kits and it doesnt make it, you can also be in a very tricky situation. Sure you can refund the money for the failed International Kit, but then what happens when those people don't want a base set or the other additional sets either? Now you refund those, and now you are potentially in a differnt price tier for those other kits making them more expensive. Now price changes for everyone. etc. etc. And this is all going on when the buy is supposed to be "over." It is a very complex issue for sure, which is why people are always cautious with kits and generally not just desinging heaps of kits and throwing them out to "see  what sticks." This wouldn't work well at all.

A huge issue with what people have called a "NorDeUK" kit, for instance, is right in the name. It's trying to combine 3+ unique layouts, none of which are very popular in the grand scheme, and make sense of it in a way that makes people happy at a cost they can stomach. If you do all of the languages and layouts right in a combined kit is super expensive, so sales are almost always low. Cut out certain keys for languages and layouts and fewer people are buying the kit.

I'm a huge proprieter that ISO should be supported in base kits. Physical layout is by far the first and most important consideration. Having the correct text layout is far less important. Is it nice to have perfect coverage, of course, but with how many unique physical layouts there are these days you're lucky to even get that. Have we found the "ideal" international kit yet? Honestly, I don't think so. Even internally we've had numerous talks with how to provide these kits for our own sets to the community. We almost certainly will take a loss on the sets if we make even the MOQ. We are doing it for Q:01 for example and fully plan on a loss. Not all vendors can stomach this.

I'm always all ears for someone to come up with a new plan for International Kits, but when one isn't provided it certainly isn't because the designer and/or vendor don't care about those users. It's just never possible to make everyone happy.

<- My Collection (so far)

Offline Butterbeer

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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #316 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 23:33:55 »
Everyone needs to relax and look at the numbers. Let's look at the numbers from the most recent NorDeUK group buy of GMK Dracula!



NorDeUK MOQ for this set was 50.

To hit that number Olivia++ needs to sell 1200 base kits.

Now if someone wants to do the marketing analysis to project sales, I believe this problem will be solved.




Offline Puddsy

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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #317 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 23:36:33 »
Everyone needs to relax and look at the numbers. Let's look at the numbers from the most recent NorDeUK group buy of GMK Dracula!

Show Image


NorDeUK MOQ for this set was 50.

To hit that number Olivia++ needs to sell 1200 base kits.

Now if someone wants to do the marketing analysis to project sales, I believe this problem will be solved.

or instead of having this debate you could just use blanks or switch to ansi
QFR | MJ2 TKL | "Bulgogiboard" (Keycon 104) | ctrl.alt x GON 60% | TGR Alice | Mira SE #29 | Mira SE #34 | Revo One | z | Keycult No. 1 | AIS65 | First CW87 prototype | Mech27v1 | Camp C225 | Duck Orion V1 | LZ CLS sxh | Geon Frog TKL | Hiney TKL One | Geon Glare TKL



"Everything is worse, but in a barely perceptible and indefinable way" -dollartacos, after I came back from a break | "Is Linkshine our Nixon?" -NAV | "Puddsy is the Puddsy of keebs" -ns90

Offline Digitize

  • Posts: 96
  • Location: California, USA
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #318 on: Tue, 12 November 2019, 23:52:37 »
\O_O/..??

I come back and this is still what people are talking about?


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Offline KingOfMemes

  • Posts: 845
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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #319 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 00:19:22 »
While absolute madmen heroes like T0mb3ry or Oblotzky use successful colorways as a way to get new tooling made (good chunk of cyrillic and R0 + R5 or Space Cadet which even supported Colemak), this set won't even put out a NorDeUk kit that would make MOQ quite easily...

This is a nice colorway, but given the overwhelming popularity you could definately take a few (small) risks and run a child kit with lower profit margins (even if you sold it for less "profit", the extra 75 base kits it would help sell could be 5% of total sales) and make an even better product.

Who could take these risks? Novelkeys? Mykeyboard.eu? Daily Clack?

And what risks, exactly? Do you mean praying this sells 1,500 base kits and NorDeUK kit gets 5% (optimistic) and hits a 75 MOQ?

And what if it doesn't? Who has to buy up the MOQ? All the proxies who can't sell NorDeUK kits?

And should the NorDeUK be light or dark alphas? Or both?

It's almost like there are deciding factors other than courage.

Color me surprised.

For starters, the legends that are universally available to anyone to use (languages, cadet, ascii,etc) aren't charged to the buys in any of these cases, GMK foots this bill.

NorDeUK is never easy to hit MOQ really, there is always risk inherently involved here. They can and do hit, but it is often a struggle and never a guarantee still these days.

Hard to talk about taking "risks" when you aren't footing the money, as Wilba stated rather well.

To me a lot of sensible decisions have been made in terms of the design. This is a great set, and I'm sure Olivia will knock set design out of the park.

PS, <3 you Wilba :-*
What are the numbers? What are the actual risks? What is a scenario where this actually happened and someone was deeply regretful for including nordeuk? How badly, in money, could a hype set like Olivia failing a moq on nordeuk really screw someone over?

I don't use nordeuk. I'm all for telling people to just stfu about nordeuk, but nobody ever gives them a good reason to. It's always just snide remarks. "Hard to talk about risks when you aren't fronting the money". Yeah sure. Let's put these people in the dirt once and for all. Tell them about the real risk and consequences, and the realities, of a failed nordeuk kit missing moq on set that's going to set records for base kits sold. Nobody wants those answers more than nordeuk users, but nobody is ever willing to give them a straight forward answer as to why they should shut up

I'm just saying nothing is a guarantee with NorDeUk kits, even still. It's definitely a decision that affects the vendor as well as the designer (if its nots Drop and buying any kit they run from the start period).

I've designed my sets, I've worked on countless others with just about every vendor or designer out ther, work full time with caps (at GMK), and know the risks all too well. I've sen all the backend numbers on these international kits and know that they are consistently the worst selling kits in a set overall. I know Massdrop (from working for them for years) is sitting on a number of these international kits from all of their buys because of very low sales on thes kits.

Money is an issue here. If a smaller vendor is going to risk the kit, paying for extras of an international kit (which will be quite spendy if under 150 units, and it almost certainly will be) could really eat into their profits. For a lot of these vendors they need the profits to continue to provide the services they do. If they don't but the kits and it doesnt make it, you can also be in a very tricky situation. Sure you can refund the money for the failed International Kit, but then what happens when those people don't want a base set or the other additional sets either? Now you refund those, and now you are potentially in a differnt price tier for those other kits making them more expensive. Now price changes for everyone. etc. etc. And this is all going on when the buy is supposed to be "over." It is a very complex issue for sure, which is why people are always cautious with kits and generally not just desinging heaps of kits and throwing them out to "see  what sticks." This wouldn't work well at all.

A huge issue with what people have called a "NorDeUK" kit, for instance, is right in the name. It's trying to combine 3+ unique layouts, none of which are very popular in the grand scheme, and make sense of it in a way that makes people happy at a cost they can stomach. If you do all of the languages and layouts right in a combined kit is super expensive, so sales are almost always low. Cut out certain keys for languages and layouts and fewer people are buying the kit.

I'm a huge proprieter that ISO should be supported in base kits. Physical layout is by far the first and most important consideration. Having the correct text layout is far less important. Is it nice to have perfect coverage, of course, but with how many unique physical layouts there are these days you're lucky to even get that. Have we found the "ideal" international kit yet? Honestly, I don't think so. Even internally we've had numerous talks with how to provide these kits for our own sets to the community. We almost certainly will take a loss on the sets if we make even the MOQ. We are doing it for Q:01 for example and fully plan on a loss. Not all vendors can stomach this.

I'm always all ears for someone to come up with a new plan for International Kits, but when one isn't provided it certainly isn't because the designer and/or vendor don't care about those users. It's just never possible to make everyone happy.
Thanks for the indepth answer. I understand vendors take hits on failed moqs, and everything you said about the complexity of those hits makes sense (ie, refunded base kits, etc). The baseline $$ is the most important thing here, and I respect that.  Another question though is, are we really, really that confident that nordeuk would fail, or confident in the risk that it will fail, on a hype set like this? Especially with recent hype sets meeting moq? I think its entirely fair to generalize alt layout kits risks in general, but when it comes to record breaking hype kits I think an exception should be made. I mentioned Oblivion earlier, and how it 3x'd moq on base kits and met moq on colevrak and locale kits. Anyone and everyone knew that set was going to slap. Dracula comes out after, wrecks base kit moq, and meets locale moq. Again... everyone knew that set was going to bank. Back to looking at risk... We are looking at a set that's been begged for since R1, has 8 pages of discussion in less then a month AND has a single render in the 1st post with no pricing or layout information. Is it really, really that absurd of me to think that a nordeuk kit would not be that risky? Is it really that absurd for me to assume that there is very little financial risk involved at all for doing so with this set?

Everyone needs to relax and look at the numbers. Let's look at the numbers from the most recent NorDeUK group buy of GMK Dracula!

Show Image


NorDeUK MOQ for this set was 50.

To hit that number Olivia++ needs to sell 1200 base kits.

Now if someone wants to do the marketing analysis to project sales, I believe this problem will be solved.
This is absolutely what we need, but I'm assuming nobody knows any numbers besides GMK, the vendors, and the people running the set. I also don't think there is any obligation to publicize those numbers from any of the parties, BUT I do think that if you don't then you should expect voices from people who want support for alternative layouts and sympathize with their plight. Again, I think the real solution to shutting them up is showing these analytics that you suggest. Show them the numbers. Show them how ridiculous their request is
« Last Edit: Wed, 13 November 2019, 00:23:40 by KingOfMemes »

Offline livingspeedbump

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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #320 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 00:27:41 »
Is it really, really that absurd of me to think that a nordeuk kit would not be that risky? Is it really that absurd for me to assume that there is very little financial risk involved at all for doing so with this set?

I'm not saying one way or another, I'm simply saying and explaining there is risk involved (however big or small) so while input is good to give, you also just have to be respectful of the final decisions the creators go with.

I also don't ever assume how big or small a financial risk is for anyone but myself.  What is huge for me may be miniscule to you.
<- My Collection (so far)

Offline KingOfMemes

  • Posts: 845
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Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #321 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 01:03:17 »
Is it really, really that absurd of me to think that a nordeuk kit would not be that risky? Is it really that absurd for me to assume that there is very little financial risk involved at all for doing so with this set?

I'm not saying one way or another, I'm simply saying and explaining there is risk involved (however big or small) so while input is good to give, you also just have to be respectful of the final decisions the creators go with.

I also don't ever assume how big or small a financial risk is for anyone but myself.  What is huge for me may be miniscule to you.
Sure, but you can similarly say that there is even risk running this set at all without any alt layout kits. I'm certainly not the only one that think that this kit by itself is that risky in the grand scheme of 'assessing risk' though. We can see that's the case with the hype surrounding this set. With that, everyone is very adamant about how risky an alt layout set would be. Everyone is so easily convinced this set will kill (aka not be risky) without the alt kits. We are SURE that is going to happen. Risk analysis has been done by the gmk, the vendors, and runners, and they have concluded that Olivia++ should be run and will make money and will not lose money. Risk analysis (in this case feeding into the hype) has been done by laymen in the community to come to that same conclusion. APPARENTLY risk analysis has been done by all development parties to where offering alt layouts should not be done. There are many people here, including myself that does not and will not use nordeuk, that think that kit will easily make moq. Financial risk on vendors was explained to me very well. I get all of that. What I, and I think a lot of people want to know is what analysis went into coming to the conclusion that nordeuk kits chance AND value of profits do not outweigh the chance AND value of potential losses? There was certainly analysis done on the base kits/kits that are offered, and there was (hopefully?) some done on alt layouts. If a moq of 50 kits is the 0 out number where there are 0 profits and losses, does an extra 30 kits on top of moq not hold good enough value for the potential losses from -10 (40) kits? Was there any predictive analysis done on potential numbers of alt kits to be sold? What are these numbers? What numbers and price of a nordeuk kit need to exist for it to be worth while? What is a real moq at a real price that makes the benefit outweigh the risk. It certainly can't be a moq of 50 at a price of $97 per, because hype kits DO perform well enough to at least meet moq.

I'm not asking for people to take a financial risk by offering alt layouts, I'm asking WHAT that risk is, specifically, straight forward. All I have to go off of are moqs from hype sets and moqs from non-hype sets for my own pseudo analysis. The hype sets I see hit moqs, the non-hype sets don't. My bull**** pseudo analysis tells me that Olivia++ is a hype set, which means a moq of 50 at $100 will be met easily, which means there is a high chance of profit from this kit, which makes it a nobrainer to run. Why am I wrong here? What am I missing in that?

Offline AlcoholEnthusiast

  • Posts: 456
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #322 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 04:14:24 »
NorDeUk enthusiasts should ask Olivias permission to run a NorDeUk kit in Olivia colorways separate from the official group buy. It would take any risk/stress off of Mike and the other proxies, and put the ball in their court.

Offline bukowski

  • Posts: 112
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #323 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 04:21:07 »
But who knows how this would impact order numbers, especially considering that the kits wouldn't run simultaneously. I'm not buying an expensive GMK kit like Olivia++ for the chance that a NorDeUK kit MIGHT run. I like Olivias colours but not enough to have an @ above my 2-key.  :)

Offline Tom_Kazansky

  • Posts: 409
  • Location: Vietnam
  • Oblivion Knight
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #324 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 04:22:21 »
NorDeUk enthusiasts should ask Olivias permission to run a NorDeUk kit in Olivia colorways separate from the official group buy. It would take any risk/stress off of Mike and the other proxies, and put the ball in their court.

agree!
if they can find enough buyers, organizing a GB like GMK. WOB & BOW. NORDEUK++ ADD-ON KIT is totally possible.

Offline harlekein

  • Posts: 464
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #325 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 05:24:34 »
Is it really, really that absurd of me to think that a nordeuk kit would not be that risky? Is it really that absurd for me to assume that there is very little financial risk involved at all for doing so with this set?

I'm not saying one way or another, I'm simply saying and explaining there is risk involved (however big or small) so while input is good to give, you also just have to be respectful of the final decisions the creators go with.

I also don't ever assume how big or small a financial risk is for anyone but myself.  What is huge for me may be miniscule to you.
Sure, but you can similarly say that there is even risk running this set at all without any alt layout kits. I'm certainly not the only one that think that this kit by itself is that risky in the grand scheme of 'assessing risk' though. We can see that's the case with the hype surrounding this set. With that, everyone is very adamant about how risky an alt layout set would be. Everyone is so easily convinced this set will kill (aka not be risky) without the alt kits. We are SURE that is going to happen. Risk analysis has been done by the gmk, the vendors, and runners, and they have concluded that Olivia++ should be run and will make money and will not lose money. Risk analysis (in this case feeding into the hype) has been done by laymen in the community to come to that same conclusion. APPARENTLY risk analysis has been done by all development parties to where offering alt layouts should not be done. There are many people here, including myself that does not and will not use nordeuk, that think that kit will easily make moq. Financial risk on vendors was explained to me very well. I get all of that. What I, and I think a lot of people want to know is what analysis went into coming to the conclusion that nordeuk kits chance AND value of profits do not outweigh the chance AND value of potential losses? There was certainly analysis done on the base kits/kits that are offered, and there was (hopefully?) some done on alt layouts. If a moq of 50 kits is the 0 out number where there are 0 profits and losses, does an extra 30 kits on top of moq not hold good enough value for the potential losses from -10 (40) kits? Was there any predictive analysis done on potential numbers of alt kits to be sold? What are these numbers? What numbers and price of a nordeuk kit need to exist for it to be worth while? What is a real moq at a real price that makes the benefit outweigh the risk. It certainly can't be a moq of 50 at a price of $97 per, because hype kits DO perform well enough to at least meet moq.

I'm not asking for people to take a financial risk by offering alt layouts, I'm asking WHAT that risk is, specifically, straight forward. All I have to go off of are moqs from hype sets and moqs from non-hype sets for my own pseudo analysis. The hype sets I see hit moqs, the non-hype sets don't. My bull**** pseudo analysis tells me that Olivia++ is a hype set, which means a moq of 50 at $100 will be met easily, which means there is a high chance of profit from this kit, which makes it a nobrainer to run. Why am I wrong here? What am I missing in that?

It's much easier to just run a set addressing only the biggest group than branching out and cater to the niches in this communtiy. I don't think it's much of a risk, it's just more effort for relatively little returns.

In other words, it's about maximizing profit while minimizing effort.

Offline andtar2

  • Posts: 60
  • Location: Sweden
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #326 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 06:32:08 »
NorDeUk enthusiasts should ask Olivias permission to run a NorDeUk kit in Olivia colorways separate from the official group buy. It would take any risk/stress off of Mike and the other proxies, and put the ball in their court.

As I understand running a separate GB would have 150MOQ (or maybe even more when its custom colors?). Running extra kit in same GB could have as low as 50MOQ (with higher price like GMK Dracula did) or 100MOQ as usual. 

Vendors together will GB-runner can always cancel any kit that did not meet MOQ and that they found its not worth saving. That should not put too much stress/risk on them?

Offline eniigma

  • Posts: 629
  • Location: USA
    • Storefront:
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #327 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 12:09:32 »
NorDeUk enthusiasts should ask Olivias permission to run a NorDeUk kit in Olivia colorways separate from the official group buy. It would take any risk/stress off of Mike and the other proxies, and put the ball in their court.

As I understand running a separate GB would have 150MOQ (or maybe even more when its custom colors?). Running extra kit in same GB could have as low as 50MOQ (with higher price like GMK Dracula did) or 100MOQ as usual. 

Vendors together will GB-runner can always cancel any kit that did not meet MOQ and that they found its not worth saving. That should not put too much stress/risk on them?
well, as you know, the group of users for that kit are a vocal minority. the backlash would be huge, and there's a reason you don't see 12 kits running for every set.


Offline Possumx

  • Posts: 28
  • Location: Germany
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #328 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 13:07:17 »
As soon as i entered the Hobby i noticed the "lack" of international coverage on Keysets, so i just said to myself bite the bullet and switch to ANSI ill spend less and rather just change my habbits and use the US-INTL layout.
After 2 months i can say it was probably for the better i did this, i got used to the new layout super quick :)

Offline brln

  • Posts: 38
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #329 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 13:36:54 »
As many pointed out if it's about risk for the creator or vendor than increase the MOQ or price for these kits. I can say for myself and probably others, that we don't want to scam creators into these kits. Make the calculation work for you. If the MOQ is hit, we're happy; if it's not hit, I assume most will understand.

Additionally, for me the NorDeUK kit does not determine if I buy the kit or not. It determines if I buy two or one (2 base kits + 1 NorDeUK). With that in mind: Please consider that there is also a dark number of people buying the base kit only because there is a NorDeUK (or whatever kit). So the sole sale of a particular kit does probably not do the overall success in terms of income justice.

Offline AlcoholEnthusiast

  • Posts: 456
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #330 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 13:50:05 »
NorDeUk enthusiasts should ask Olivias permission to run a NorDeUk kit in Olivia colorways separate from the official group buy. It would take any risk/stress off of Mike and the other proxies, and put the ball in their court.

As I understand running a separate GB would have 150MOQ (or maybe even more when its custom colors?). Running extra kit in same GB could have as low as 50MOQ (with higher price like GMK Dracula did) or 100MOQ as usual. 

Vendors together will GB-runner can always cancel any kit that did not meet MOQ and that they found its not worth saving. That should not put too much stress/risk on them?

If NorDeUk community can't reach MOQ of 100 or 150 with one of the most hyped sets of all time, then maybe the community isn't big enough to sustain the things they are asking for. Which is why I like this idea. Either A) The MOQ is reached, which is great - and everyone gets their keys or B) They realize first hand that there simply aren't enough people using those layouts and the set is either canceled OR the NorDeUk community has to help buy out the set (which they are asking the proxies themselves to do now).

The risk in canceling it a kit was laid out very well above. But essentially if the kit gets canceled, people often pull out of their base kits order too. Which can push the base kits/other child kits under the MOQ thresholds. All of this is done after the GB has ended (or close to it) which puts the stress/risk on the proxies to either A) Buy out the NorDeUk sets or B) risk losing orders which can increase the price if it goes below certain MOQ threshholds.

Offline KingOfMemes

  • Posts: 845
  • Location: Murica, the best country in the world
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #331 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 14:03:01 »
NorDeUk enthusiasts should ask Olivias permission to run a NorDeUk kit in Olivia colorways separate from the official group buy. It would take any risk/stress off of Mike and the other proxies, and put the ball in their court.

As I understand running a separate GB would have 150MOQ (or maybe even more when its custom colors?). Running extra kit in same GB could have as low as 50MOQ (with higher price like GMK Dracula did) or 100MOQ as usual. 

Vendors together will GB-runner can always cancel any kit that did not meet MOQ and that they found its not worth saving. That should not put too much stress/risk on them?

If NorDeUk community can't reach MOQ of 100 or 150 with one of the most hyped sets of all time, then maybe the community isn't big enough to sustain the things they are asking for. Which is why I like this idea. Either A) The MOQ is reached, which is great - and everyone gets their keys or B) They realize first hand that there simply aren't enough people using those layouts and the set is either canceled OR the NorDeUk community has to help buy out the set (which they are asking the proxies themselves to do now).

The risk in canceling it a kit was laid out very well above. But essentially if the kit gets canceled, people often pull out of their base kits order too. Which can push the base kits/other child kits under the MOQ thresholds. All of this is done after the GB has ended (or close to it) which puts the stress/risk on the proxies to either A) Buy out the NorDeUk sets or B) risk losing orders which can increase the price if it goes below certain MOQ threshholds.
We keep talking about people refunding base kits when moqs for alt kits are missed. That leads me, once again, question all the numbers that nobody ever gives. Are all of 'lost' base kits, especially those far above base kit moq, not just stacks of profit? With the base kits being more expensive than the alt layout kits, do those profits not counteract the potential, or literal, losses on the alt kits? If a single alt kit is equivalent to the purchase of an alt kit + base kit, is it not in the best interests to make it? Obviously, I assume that's the case, but again, I'll keep repeating myself asking for the realistic number values that makes that true or false.

Offline honoka

  • Posts: 344
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #332 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 14:25:51 »
Thank you everyone for the thoughtful discussion and feedback. The intensity of this thread is awe-inspiring. I've read every comment in this thread multiple times over, and these posts have reminded me why I joined this community in the first place. Thank you  :)

To my Colevrak and NorDeUK friends, have you seen Zambumon's post?

https://www.instagram.com/p/B3m-ov3FeFD/

I've seen the post but I'm too stupid to make something of it. I can imagine what it could be, but I don't even dare mentioning it.

Offline Zambumon

  • * Esteemed Elder
  • Posts: 1806
  • discord.zambumon.com
    • Keyset projects
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #333 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 15:31:03 »
Thank you everyone for the thoughtful discussion and feedback. The intensity of this thread is awe-inspiring. I've read every comment in this thread multiple times over, and these posts have reminded me why I joined this community in the first place. Thank you  :)

To my Colevrak and NorDeUK friends, have you seen Zambumon's post?

https://www.instagram.com/p/B3m-ov3FeFD/

I've seen the post but I'm too stupid to make something of it. I can imagine what it could be, but I don't even dare mentioning it.

It has nothing to do with Colevrak or NordeUK

Offline KingOfMemes

  • Posts: 845
  • Location: Murica, the best country in the world
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #334 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 17:30:41 »
Thank you everyone for the thoughtful discussion and feedback. The intensity of this thread is awe-inspiring. I've read every comment in this thread multiple times over, and these posts have reminded me why I joined this community in the first place. Thank you  :)

To my Colevrak and NorDeUK friends, have you seen Zambumon's post?

https://www.instagram.com/p/B3m-ov3FeFD/

I've seen the post but I'm too stupid to make something of it. I can imagine what it could be, but I don't even dare mentioning it.

It has nothing to do with Colevrak or NordeUK
Blanks?

Offline Zambumon

  • * Esteemed Elder
  • Posts: 1806
  • discord.zambumon.com
    • Keyset projects
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #335 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 18:04:47 »
Thank you everyone for the thoughtful discussion and feedback. The intensity of this thread is awe-inspiring. I've read every comment in this thread multiple times over, and these posts have reminded me why I joined this community in the first place. Thank you  :)

To my Colevrak and NorDeUK friends, have you seen Zambumon's post?

https://www.instagram.com/p/B3m-ov3FeFD/

I've seen the post but I'm too stupid to make something of it. I can imagine what it could be, but I don't even dare mentioning it.

It has nothing to do with Colevrak or NordeUK
Blanks?

Another clue will be up today

Offline Kokaloo

  • Posts: 1014
  • Location: Las Vegas
  • 🤘(• ω •)🤙
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #336 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 18:30:24 »
Thank you everyone for the thoughtful discussion and feedback. The intensity of this thread is awe-inspiring. I've read every comment in this thread multiple times over, and these posts have reminded me why I joined this community in the first place. Thank you  :)

To my Colevrak and NorDeUK friends, have you seen Zambumon's post?

https://www.instagram.com/p/B3m-ov3FeFD/

I've seen the post but I'm too stupid to make something of it. I can imagine what it could be, but I don't even dare mentioning it.

It has nothing to do with Colevrak or NordeUK
Blanks?

Another clue will be up today
How about some straight up information? Why should consumers jump through hoops to know what will be available to them?
« Last Edit: Wed, 13 November 2019, 18:36:34 by Kokaloo »

Offline jakereps

  • Posts: 23
  • Location: Arizona
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #337 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 18:38:16 »
Thank you everyone for the thoughtful discussion and feedback. The intensity of this thread is awe-inspiring. I've read every comment in this thread multiple times over, and these posts have reminded me why I joined this community in the first place. Thank you  :)

To my Colevrak and NorDeUK friends, have you seen Zambumon's post?

https://www.instagram.com/p/B3m-ov3FeFD/

I've seen the post but I'm too stupid to make something of it. I can imagine what it could be, but I don't even dare mentioning it.

It has nothing to do with Colevrak or NordeUK
Blanks?

Another clue will be up today
How about some straight up information? Why should consumers jump through hooks to know what will be available to them?

Because they don't care about sharing information, they know people will buy it anyways. This GB is reaching peak arrogance, as it drops in a few weeks and the IC hasn't been touched in a month other than when mandated by a mod. The game was "cute" on day 1, but begging the consumers to solve some riddle to get more information is ridiculous IMO. As has been said previously, this IC is trash.

Offline tonydatigeryo

  • Posts: 5
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #338 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 18:43:44 »
Yeah, the lack of information and way this is being handled is leaving a bad taste in my mouth... seems pompous

Offline KingOfMemes

  • Posts: 845
  • Location: Murica, the best country in the world
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #339 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 19:25:45 »
Thank you everyone for the thoughtful discussion and feedback. The intensity of this thread is awe-inspiring. I've read every comment in this thread multiple times over, and these posts have reminded me why I joined this community in the first place. Thank you  :)

To my Colevrak and NorDeUK friends, have you seen Zambumon's post?

https://www.instagram.com/p/B3m-ov3FeFD/

I've seen the post but I'm too stupid to make something of it. I can imagine what it could be, but I don't even dare mentioning it.

It has nothing to do with Colevrak or NordeUK
Blanks?

Another clue will be up today
How about some straight up information? Why should consumers jump through hooks to know what will be available to them?

Because they don't care about sharing information, they know people will buy it anyways. This GB is reaching peak arrogance, as it drops in a few weeks and the IC hasn't been touched in a month other than when mandated by a mod. The game was "cute" on day 1, but begging the consumers to solve some riddle to get more information is ridiculous IMO. As has been said previously, this IC is trash.
Fall in line, drone

Offline stevenT

  • Posts: 104
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #340 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 20:21:06 »
This IC only started from October with 1 rendered picture and short announcement, yet there are 7 pages of comments, replies,.etc. I would just call it a huge success. ;D

Offline renolo

  • Posts: 40
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #341 on: Wed, 13 November 2019, 20:47:35 »
watch this all be a huge elaborate prank or something

"Whats this? you plebs actually thought you guys were gonna get a second round of Olivia? Lmao, if you want Olivia go sell your kidneys and buy one off mech market you peasant."
Doritos, Cheetos, or Fritos.

Offline bukowski

  • Posts: 112
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #342 on: Thu, 14 November 2019, 01:48:03 »
With that in mind: Please consider that there is also a dark number of people buying the base kit only because there is a NorDeUK (or whatever kit). So the sole sale of a particular kit does probably not do the overall success in terms of income justice.
Exactly the position that I and probably every NorDeUK user is in. There are so many sets I didn't buy even though I loved their colours: GMK 8008, GMK Nines and now probably GMK Olivia++.

Offline dexie

  • Posts: 92
  • Location: Riga, Latvia
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #343 on: Thu, 14 November 2019, 02:20:23 »
Zambumon posted a new stuff to instagram:  https://www.instagram.com/p/B401iixnVwv/

The post is
Code: [Select]
What? Where? hihihi YXBvdHB1d2FtYWh0d29wdHdvcA==Base64 part translates to
Code: [Select]
apotpuwamahtwoptwop
It looks very cipher-ish, so I tried to go through all the most common cyphers. ROTn, atbash, caesar, substition, rail fence - nothing yielded any results. You can notice the string ends with "...twoptwop",  which might be a substitution for "...plusplus", but the order in which letters are substituted is not obvious (numbers of letters do not change in linear way), so there must be some kind of "rule" behind it. Let's call it a "Key"!

 So, I looked through "keyed" ciphers (the ones requiring a key to decrypt), and I assumed that hihihi from the post might be a key. Long story short, it is a Beaufort Cipher. If we decode "apotpuwamahtwoptwop" with "hihihi" using Beaufort Cipher, we get "httpsoliviaplusplus" string.

I guess it is a website for additional info on the groupbuy. According to whois "https://oliviaplus.plus" was registered on Oct 15, so it must be it :)
« Last Edit: Thu, 14 November 2019, 02:59:38 by dexie »
ISO Life

Offline harlekein

  • Posts: 464
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #344 on: Thu, 14 November 2019, 03:03:16 »
Thank you everyone for the thoughtful discussion and feedback. The intensity of this thread is awe-inspiring. I've read every comment in this thread multiple times over, and these posts have reminded me why I joined this community in the first place. Thank you  :)

To my Colevrak and NorDeUK friends, have you seen Zambumon's post?

https://www.instagram.com/p/B3m-ov3FeFD/

I've seen the post but I'm too stupid to make something of it. I can imagine what it could be, but I don't even dare mentioning it.

It has nothing to do with Colevrak or NordeUK
Blanks?

Another clue will be up today
How about some straight up information? Why should consumers jump through hoops to know what will be available to them?

Because this is not an IC. This is just hype building.

Offline honoka

  • Posts: 344
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #345 on: Thu, 14 November 2019, 03:11:12 »
Nice one dexie, impressive deduction!

Zambumon, naughty boy for being so tricky.
« Last Edit: Thu, 14 November 2019, 06:39:23 by honoka »

Offline Khers

  • Posts: 513
  • Schrödinger's box
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #346 on: Thu, 14 November 2019, 06:12:47 »
This "IC" is a complete ****ing turn off. The arrogance on show by those involved is staggering.

GLWB

Offline forevermadrigal

  • Posts: 663
  • Location: In between myself
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #347 on: Thu, 14 November 2019, 08:26:55 »
This IC only started from October with 1 rendered picture and short announcement, yet there are 7 pages of comments, replies,.etc. I would just call it a huge success. ;D

People are nonstop complaining. The thread is a ****show

Offline Vigrith

  • Posts: 1843
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #348 on: Thu, 14 November 2019, 08:38:22 »
You are making it more complicated than it needs to be. Risk can and should be split - so that vendors each would have to bear just a few kits. But considering firstly how huge this run is and secondly how Oblivion v2 turned out, its weird to talk about "courage", "risk" and "buy ups" in this matter. And the NorDeUK kit should have the usual light alphas of course, since this is the original kit (why are there dark alphas/2 different versions anyway? just run a new design if you want a new look).

NK and Mykeyboard aren't Massdrop.

PS: Colevrak and norde suck.

Offline harlekein

  • Posts: 464
Re: [IC] GMK Olivia++
« Reply #349 on: Thu, 14 November 2019, 08:59:24 »
You are making it more complicated than it needs to be. Risk can and should be split - so that vendors each would have to bear just a few kits. But considering firstly how huge this run is and secondly how Oblivion v2 turned out, its weird to talk about "courage", "risk" and "buy ups" in this matter. And the NorDeUK kit should have the usual light alphas of course, since this is the original kit (why are there dark alphas/2 different versions anyway? just run a new design if you want a new look).

NK and Mykeyboard aren't Massdrop.

PS: Colevrak and norde suck.

So edgy.