Author Topic: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban  (Read 3251 times)

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Offline fohat.digs

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Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« on: Fri, 13 August 2021, 08:29:15 »
From what I can find, only about 10%-15% of the population even wants the Taliban around any more, and actual Taliban members are a small fraction of 1% of the people living there.

So how is it that they are "taking over" with so little effort? What is it that "taking over" means, and what do they plan to do when they take over?

In general, we might expect new leadership to offer some benefits - better roads, electricity, clean water, etc - whatever it is that the people want and need. As far as I can tell, these guys aren't really doing anything except driving around with their guns out.

What will they actually do for the people when they get the power that they want?

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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #1 on: Fri, 13 August 2021, 10:53:28 »
We're Great Britain, and Afghanis is Bizarro-Ghandi India.

Offline Findecanor

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #2 on: Fri, 13 August 2021, 11:02:17 »
I don't think it has to do with the Taliban being capable as much as it has to do with the Western-supported  government being incapable.

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #3 on: Fri, 13 August 2021, 16:17:42 »

the Western-supported government being incapable.


Would there ever be an end game possible? After all these years you have to let go eventually.

Yet another example of why there needs to be a real United Nations.
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Offline Leslieann

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #4 on: Sat, 14 August 2021, 01:54:08 »
Taliban is a battle hardened military force, Afghanistan military is little more effective than a bunch of drunken rednecks running around in ATVs with sawed off shotguns except in this case it's AKs and camels (ok they do have some vehicles).  The Taliban is half the size of the Afghan army and with them being battle hardened that size difference matters little, especially when the Afghan army is going to focus specifically on protecting the cities. You also have to remember quite a lot of men, especially incels (and not just the ones there) like a lot of what they stand for and the regular meals it brings so recruiting from small villages is not that difficult.

It doesn't help that Afghanistan is considered one of the most corrupt governments in the world, local leaders are often warlords or their descendants who took over when Russia left, often trained using Russian tactics. As soon as these groups see a power vacuum they all swoop in hoping to capitalize on it, meaning even if you stop the Taliban, another clan/tribe/faction is going to be right behind them trying to do the same thing (like Isis and Taliban). It's all the exact same problems we face in Iraq.

Oh and forget the whole "They beat Russia" thing. Chernobyl happened less than a year before they started pulling out and it burned through so much money that Mikhail Gorbachev (Soviet leader at the time) says it's what actually bankrupted the Soviet Union not the cold war arms race, it was he who decided they needed to shift focus away from Afghanistan. Russia also wasn't fighting the Afghan military it was fighting various clans/tribes/factions, the Taliban rose up from some of those very groups.
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Offline fohat.digs

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #5 on: Sat, 14 August 2021, 08:51:08 »

Taliban is a battle hardened military force

quite a lot of men, especially incels (and not just the ones there) like a lot of what they stand for

even if you stop the Taliban, another clan/tribe/faction is going to be right behind them trying to do the same thing


Good points. But as someone who came up in the Vietnam era I see striking similarities as well as striking differences.

There is no doubt that no "outside" force can remain long-term when the general population of a country does not want them there, and it is also it is inevitable that the vacuum of its exit will be filled.

But, while the Vietnamese people were never happy with the Cold War opponents fighting their proxy war there, they could not see any significant change on the horizon after the combatants went home.

Today, a primitive and repressed people have had a view through a window into the modern world that is astonishingly different from what they knew before, and even saw it burgeoning in their cities. As they say, an entire generation has grown up seeing a new world that understands and appreciates progressive values like education and womens' rights.

The Soviets never really got the chance to move beyond the fighting, but, for all the corrpution and waste ingrained in Afghan life, we genuinely attempted to usher in the beginnings of a more progressive socitey. So how can an equilibrium endure between those "moderns" (in the US the Radical Right delights in calling them "the elites") and this most primitive and aggressive faction that fears and loathes any deviation from their fundamentalist worldview? You say that a similar faction would fill in behind them, but is there anybody else so closed and rigid?

It looks to me like what we have here in the US and refer to as the "Culture Wars" - on a triple dose of steroids and with no restraints.

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Offline Leslieann

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #6 on: Sat, 14 August 2021, 23:47:39 »
Good points. But as someone who came up in the Vietnam era I see striking similarities as well as striking differences.

There is no doubt that no "outside" force can remain long-term when the general population of a country does not want them there, and it is also it is inevitable that the vacuum of its exit will be filled.

But, while the Vietnamese people were never happy with the Cold War opponents fighting their proxy war there, they could not see any significant change on the horizon after the combatants went home.

Today, a primitive and repressed people have had a view through a window into the modern world that is astonishingly different from what they knew before, and even saw it burgeoning in their cities. As they say, an entire generation has grown up seeing a new world that understands and appreciates progressive values like education and womens' rights.

The Soviets never really got the chance to move beyond the fighting, but, for all the corrpution and waste ingrained in Afghan life, we genuinely attempted to usher in the beginnings of a more progressive socitey. So how can an equilibrium endure between those "moderns" (in the US the Radical Right delights in calling them "the elites") and this most primitive and aggressive faction that fears and loathes any deviation from their fundamentalist worldview? You say that a similar faction would fill in behind them, but is there anybody else so closed and rigid?

It looks to me like what we have here in the US and refer to as the "Culture Wars" - on a triple dose of steroids and with no restraints.
I didn't mean a faction similar to Taliban would replace them only that some faction would.
Not all of them are equal, some are pretty progressive others are not, some just want to be kings others have religious priorities and some really only want to oppress their enemy clan/tribe/faction. The ones similar tend to prevail more often these days because it attracts so many outsiders to the "cause". The irony being they really don't care about the cause or their values they just want some of the lifestyle and ability to do the things they want to do (like rape and pillage).


I agree with you though.
I don't think people understand it's not a 6 month or even 10 year operation, you literally need several generations to make the necessary changes and it's always going to be a challenge because these people will always fight your progress and they will use any means at their disposal to do so. And it's not always just that they fear change, they do, but they also don't want anyone getting something better than them, this includes their own children (sadly I'm not kidding).
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Offline fohat.digs

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #7 on: Mon, 16 August 2021, 10:24:16 »
update - now that this "intermediate" phase is over with regard to Afghanistan, we can let the dust settle and move forward into the new reality of the future

unfortunately, it will probably not be "Arab Spring 2.0" but whatever happens needs to happen so that the world can chart a path forward, even if that is war in the Middle East ....

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Offline Leslieann

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #8 on: Mon, 16 August 2021, 22:55:13 »
unfortunately, it will probably not be "Arab Spring 2.0" but whatever happens needs to happen so that the world can chart a path forward, even if that is war in the Middle East ....
There won't be an Arab spring in Afghanistan for decades or possibly centuries.
The only way this was going to work was long term occupation like Korea, you need to slowly elevate the entire country, not just the cities and not just the military. That takes generations. Unless you want to commit 100 years to this, it wasn't going to happen.


This was one of the biggest routs in history, in 12 hours they retook more territory than they held prior to us being there, including all major cities. Their own military, despite 21 years of training and equipment basically dropped their weapons and ran away like some Bugs Bunny cartoon. Best I can tell they didn't even put up a fight, they simply ran.

This is a good example of what we were working with, they smoked Opuim prior, note that their commander doesn't seem to care one way or another, and that's the problem.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/p56tvm/training_of_the_afghan_army_by_us_led_nato_forces/
We had/have a similar problem in Iraq with them being drunk all the time, especially the police. They don't see this as a job were they actually have to do anything it's just an easy paycheck from the U.S. and since they know someone powerful we couldn't fire them, which is also how many of the cops got those jobs in the first place. It's a free handout to them.
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Offline iri

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #9 on: Tue, 17 August 2021, 03:11:49 »
This is my favourite video on 'Afghanistan accepting the Taliban'

https://www.bbc.com/news/av-embeds/58232525/vpid/p09scdsd
(...)Whereas back then I wrote about the tyranny of the majority, today I'd combine that with the tyranny of the minorities. These days, you have to be careful of both. They both want to control you. The first group, by making you do the same thing over and over again. The second group is indicated by the letters I get from the Vassar girls who want me to put more women's lib in The Martian Chronicles, or from blacks who want more black people in Dandelion Wine.
I say to both bunches, Whether you're a majority or minority, bug off! To hell with anybody who wants to tell me what to write. Their society breaks down into subsections of minorities who then, in effect, burn books by banning them. All this political correctness that's rampant on campuses is b.s.

-Ray Bradbury

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #10 on: Tue, 17 August 2021, 08:40:25 »

it's just an easy paycheck from the U.S.


All true. But my underlying question is: how will a few tens of thousands of people dominate a few tens of millions of people, long-term, when they have nothing to offer - physically, mentally, or spiritually?
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Offline Leslieann

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #11 on: Tue, 17 August 2021, 23:03:44 »
All true. But my underlying question is: how will a few tens of thousands of people dominate a few tens of millions of people, long-term, when they have nothing to offer - physically, mentally, or spiritually?

Most people just want to be left alone and so long as it doesn't interfere too much with their life they won't resist, they'll ***** and moan but they won't resist. They will make an example of the first few to resist and that will be the end of it, we've seen it before. Many of the men like their way of rule anyhow, especially in regards to women so there's not going to be much resistance from them. The women aren't going to have a say in the matter.

As for control,
It actually takes shockingly few troops to control a population once you have control of it, they have that, we only really had it in a few cities and surrounding areas. Once you have control one soldier can control 2000 people. This doesn't mean he/she stands in front of 2000 people and controls them, the troublemakers will gather, so some areas need more some need less, but in general as a whole it's one troop per 2000 people or so (sorry, I don't remember where I learned that). This means they could control all of Afghanistan with fewer than 16k troops, the rest are reserves and fighting on your front, in this case the new Northern Coalition setup by the former Vice President and a few local tribes.
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Offline chadrezzar

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #12 on: Wed, 18 August 2021, 19:51:04 »

Would there ever be an end game possible? After all these years you have to let go eventually.

Yet another example of why there needs to be a real United Nations.

Yes an end game would be possible but to accomplish changes amongst populations, especially with how different the Afghan culture is from what we see as "normal" in the west it would take decades if not a couple generations. Regardless of cost committing to long term projects like that is unfeasible for the majority of the western world as the elections we have every X years don't help with consistent foreign policies. Even if you were to spend another 30 years and might be starting to see some amount of change nothing prevents the next electees from cutting it all away and abandoning the interim Afghan government/supported local warlords.

Honestly China would probably have much more succes due to their ability to take a long term approach to certain issues/opportunities without having to be afraid of their work being undone in the next 5 years by the next guy elected for no other reasons than the whims of the masses. As China still have investments going in Afghanistan(which is quite affluent in terms of mineable resources) I'd say the developments there will be quite interesting to see over the next 10-20-30 years. Will they be able to start exploitation of their resources on larger scales?
« Last Edit: Wed, 18 August 2021, 19:53:23 by chadrezzar »

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: Help me understand Afghanistan accepting the Taliban
« Reply #13 on: Wed, 01 September 2021, 17:56:03 »
Biden's speech yesterday was somber and inspiring. I am sick of having to listen to blowhards "blaming" him for "chaos"

Before the process started I remember hearing numbers like ~20K-30K Afghans who would need to be evacuated, and we brought out MANY TIMES those numbers.

How can you blame anybody EXCEPT the Afghan Army? They had 10X-20X the number of soldiers as the Taliban, equipped with modern US technology, and an AIR FORCE. Fortunately those planes won't fly because crucial parts were removed and will be extremely hard to replace, but those bozos just threw down their hand weapons and ran. How was the whole mess not entirely their fault?

And when Ashraf Ghani loaded  US$170M  in cash into a helicopter at the first sign of trouble and flew the coop, that was like page 8 news. WTF?

If it was inevitable that the Taliban would take over eventually, well then, so be it.

But I do think that we did accomplish something of great and lasting importance. We showed a whole generation what the modern world looks like. You know that they are going to get tired of living in the Dark Ages when they know that it doesn't have to be that way. But they will have to find their own way out.
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