I need to go redo my math...
Your math is fine - and a soldering iron continually loses heat to the environment via air cooling. That 'iron' appears to be a normal fine tip stuffed into a plastic case.
So - if your iron is magic and doesn't lose heat to the air etc... whatever you are soldering will - so unless it is a very thin trace to a single pin on an IC, and your soldering iron only heats at the very very tip 2.5W will not be able to keep up with the object you are soldering conducting heat away to the rest of the board, air, etc...
Unless someone here with a decent rep actually uses one, I'm not believing that those things work.
Heck, the ebay page even claims the thing draws 800mA via USB... mebbe that's how the seller tries to reduce returns - claim it works fine if your USB will feed it properly, and since USB was still capped at 500mA last I checked (OK, I'm not tracking the new specs carefully, though) folks will usually not have a device to power it. Jes' a theory.
dfj