When you say "way higher than supply" how much do you mean? I'm still pretty new and have not yet participated in any raffles myself but I wonder what the percent chances of winning a raffle are? I keep hearing how hard it is to win/ start collecting artisans. What have been your experiences with that? Should one just enter as many raffles as possible?
It depends on how many caps the artisan makes. Like say, I make a supply of 100 caps but 200 people enter the raffle. Only half of the people will be winning anything. Some people that are drawn may want (and win) multiple caps which would lessen the amount of winners. That depends on the process of the artisan maker though. Everyone has a different way of choosing winners and how much each people get.
For popular makers, there are probably hundreds of entries. I don't know how many caps they make, but not everyone is going to win a cap. I don't win often, heh. You can always try trading in the Classifieds section, or on r/mechmarket.
We do raffle-style so that everyone that enters has an equal chance of winning. Rather than first-come, first-served, where people online at the time have the advantage over other people that are working or live in different time zones.
I would say to enter all the raffles that you are interested in. If you're lucky, you'll get the chance to purchase a few. Of course, the more raffles you enter, the more chances you get. Again, you can try trading or buying from the secondhand market, but prices usually go up from there.