Author Topic: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news  (Read 8213 times)

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Offline Leslieann

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Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« on: Sat, 06 November 2021, 20:02:45 »
Here's the latest update.


The lead time for chips was something like 4 weeks last year, 6 weeks in January, 11 weeks by June..  It's now at 22(!) weeks with no sign of slowing.
Some companies are now being accused of hoarding, no one is naming names but the one being whispered is Nvidia (though I suspect Apple is also to blame). It's also now come out that not only are companies hoarding but companies are now ordering a YEARs worth in advance out of fears the line will get even longer... Causing even longer lines. Keep in mind, around 2024-2025 they expect demand to outstrip supply, so they have 6-12 months (assuming the lead time keeps growing at current rate) to catch up before it's lost until the new fabs open in 20025 and 2026. As I said in past updates, I'm not holding my breath they get it fixed in time to catch up.


Cars
Car dealers in my area are so short on cars some cannot even keep the spots along the street full let alone lots or even the showroom(!). Volkswagon is at like 20% capacity. Chevy had employee cars in the lot to make it look more full.... What has come out is car manufacturers are using OOOOOOLD chips, so old the fabs have to shut down to reconfigure to make them. The manufacturers abandoned orders to cut costs when Covid hit, not aware once they cancel they can't just jump back in line, instead they start at the end. Manufacturers are angry with car manufacturers because it takes so long to switch over, car manufacturers are crying victim, not wanting to update...  Instead of figuring out how to use more modern chips took a different tact, they bought the sand mines and are more or less trying to blackmail their way way into cutting the line and chip makers aren't having it and it could create a standoff. Some say they won't upgrade because of reliability, I'm sorry, but we aren't talking about 4 year old chips, he car companies want 10-15 year old chips. We have newer stuff, they just don't want to use it, some say because cost... Again, BS. One newer chip can do what 4 old ones could, and you can cut costs elsewhere as well on all the necessary connectors and power modulation, etc... But also, we're talking PENNIES, not hundreds of dollars.

Car companies HAAATE actual innovation, once you look at them through that lens it all starts to make sense. They do it their way and they hate having to change it once they figure out out how to pinch every last bit of profit. I have some news for car companies though... They may own the nearby mines, but sand is the most common thing on earth and chip makers will find a way. They don't need car companies but car companies need them, other industries need chips, not more cars so if a standoff happens, expect chip prices to rise and car companies to fall. We may see some car companies fall regardless.  As a result, Chevy has idled some plants, Mitsubishi left the US market until they can get enough chips.. Meanwhile Ford is introducing new models but have no stock to actually sell and dealers are taking on a $10k extra charge (or more) on new cars to make up the for the losses.

Computers..
Companies are are short changing all systems, often for zero reason other than money, and by this I mean more than normal. I tried to find an I5 or I7 or AMD equivalent for an office the other day with 16gigs ram and 512gb ssd... Not even with a GPU... yeah right. It was either 256gb ssd or 8gb ram. In 2021. And even then the price was stupid, $700 for that? Get bent. Worse still, the systems were garbage, using too many proprietary parts (making them disposable). Dell and them all know you will buy whatever junk they offer right now and a whole lot of it is just that, junk. Good luck if you want a gpu as well.  I saw a 1660 on "sale" for $550, but hey, it was in stock but only because no one was stupid enough to buy it. Avoid buying a prebuilt if you can if at all avoid it.
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Offline fohat.digs

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #2 on: Sat, 06 November 2021, 20:57:52 »
Whoa!

I sure am glad that I built an entire fresh strong system at the beginning of the pandemic, and that my laptop is still going strong even though it's old.

And when my AC/Heat Pump controller went out last summer I was angry that it took a week and cost $800 to fix, but that was probably getting off light. But my kids are probably going to need cars in the not-too-distant future ....
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Offline Sintpinty

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #3 on: Sun, 07 November 2021, 18:14:59 »
Here's the latest update.


The lead time for chips was something like 4 weeks last year, 6 weeks in January, 11 weeks by June..  It's now at 22(!) weeks with no sign of slowing.
Some companies are now being accused of hoarding, no one is naming names but the one being whispered is Nvidia (though I suspect Apple is also to blame). It's also now come out that not only are companies hoarding but companies are now ordering a YEARs worth in advance out of fears the line will get even longer... Causing even longer lines. Keep in mind, around 2024-2025 they expect demand to outstrip supply, so they have 6-12 months (assuming the lead time keeps growing at current rate) to catch up before it's lost until the new fabs open in 20025 and 2026. As I said in past updates, I'm not holding my breath they get it fixed in time to catch up.

Cars
Car dealers in my area are so short on cars some cannot even keep the spots along the street full let alone lots or even the showroom(!). Volkswagon is at like 20% capacity. Chevy had employee cars in the lot to make it look more full.... What has come out is car manufacturers are using OOOOOOLD chips, so old the fabs have to shut down to reconfigure to make them. The manufacturers abandoned orders to cut costs when Covid hit, not aware once they cancel they can't just jump back in line, instead they start at the end. Manufacturers are angry with car manufacturers because it takes so long to switch over, car manufacturers are crying victim, not wanting to update...  Instead of figuring out how to use more modern chips took a different tact, they bought the sand mines and are more or less trying to blackmail their way way into cutting the line and chip makers aren't having it and it could create a standoff. Some say they won't upgrade because of reliability, I'm sorry, but we aren't talking about 4 year old chips, he car companies want 10-15 year old chips. We have newer stuff, they just don't want to use it, some say because cost... Again, BS. One newer chip can do what 4 old ones could, and you can cut costs elsewhere as well on all the necessary connectors and power modulation, etc... But also, we're talking PENNIES, not hundreds of dollars.

Car companies HAAATE actual innovation, once you look at them through that lens it all starts to make sense. They do it their way and they hate having to change it once they figure out out how to pinch every last bit of profit. I have some news for car companies though... They may own the nearby mines, but sand is the most common thing on earth and chip makers will find a way. They don't need car companies but car companies need them, other industries need chips, not more cars so if a standoff happens, expect chip prices to rise and car companies to fall. We may see some car companies fall regardless.  As a result, Chevy has idled some plants, Mitsubishi left the US market until they can get enough chips.. Meanwhile Ford is introducing new models but have no stock to actually sell and dealers are taking on a $10k extra charge (or more) on new cars to make up the for the losses.

Computers..
Companies are are short changing all systems, often for zero reason other than money, and by this I mean more than normal. I tried to find an I5 or I7 or AMD equivalent for an office the other day with 16gigs ram and 512gb ssd... Not even with a GPU... yeah right. It was either 256gb ssd or 8gb ram. In 2021. And even then the price was stupid, $700 for that? Get bent. Worse still, the systems were garbage, using too many proprietary parts (making them disposable). Dell and them all know you will buy whatever junk they offer right now and a whole lot of it is just that, junk. Good luck if you want a gpu as well.  I saw a 1660 on "sale" for $550, but hey, it was in stock but only because no one was stupid enough to buy it. Avoid buying a prebuilt if you can if at all avoid it.

Goddamit

Offline Maledicted

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #4 on: Tue, 09 November 2021, 08:50:46 »
I guess I'm lucky that I almost never upgrade anything and often just use whatever I happen to find at a recycling facility. My bedroom HTPC is literally a SFF Dell I picked up for $25 at a recycler and plopped an SSD in it.

That's the one good thing I see out of this. So much perfectly good hardware is recycled for no good reason at all. My desktop's i7 came out of a bucket of processors at the same recycling facility. Maybe people will stop upgrading for nominal gains and trashing hardware that could do whatever they need for another 10 or 15 years.

My newest car is a 2012, and I hate it.  ;D Too bad we can't undo cash for clunkers.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #5 on: Tue, 09 November 2021, 17:31:16 »
That's the one good thing I see out of this. So much perfectly good hardware is recycled for no good reason at all. My desktop's i7 came out of a bucket of processors at the same recycling facility. Maybe people will stop upgrading for nominal gains and trashing hardware that could do whatever they need for another 10 or 15 years.

My newest car is a 2012, and I hate it.  ;D Too bad we can't undo cash for clunkers.
TONS of good, cheap hardware, and Win11 will only accelerate it.

As for the new-ish car...
You really don't want to go back too much further for a daily driver. Between wear and tear and safety features it's just not really a good idea. Pre-2000 (ish) crash ratings were not as good, and do you really want to trust a 25 year old airbag to deploy even if you had one?

I'm all for old cars. I LOOVE old cars, but I wouldn't want to be doing 15-30k miles a year on an old car due to the safety of it. I was okay with it until I saw the Bel Air/Malibu crash test video, that was a game  changer for me. If you think the Bel Air got wrecked, 70's and 80's tin cans would fare even worse, at least it had some mass to it. Gotta drive them like you're riding a motorcycle.

For those curious:
Note they talk about lack of seat belts, airbag and such to help the passenger... That doesn't help at all when the entire cabin was crushed.
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Offline Maledicted

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #6 on: Tue, 09 November 2021, 17:45:48 »
That's the one good thing I see out of this. So much perfectly good hardware is recycled for no good reason at all. My desktop's i7 came out of a bucket of processors at the same recycling facility. Maybe people will stop upgrading for nominal gains and trashing hardware that could do whatever they need for another 10 or 15 years.

My newest car is a 2012, and I hate it.  ;D Too bad we can't undo cash for clunkers.
TONS of good, cheap hardware, and Win11 will only accelerate it.

As for the new-ish car...
You really don't want to go back too much further for a daily driver. Between wear and tear and safety features it's just not really a good idea. Pre-2000 (ish) crash ratings were not as good, and do you really want to trust a 25 year old airbag to deploy even if you had one?

I'm all for old cars. I LOOVE old cars, but I wouldn't want to be doing 15-30k miles a year on an old car due to the safety of it. I was okay with it until I saw the Bel Air/Malibu crash test video, that was a game  changer for me. If you think the Bel Air got wrecked, 70's and 80's tin cans would fare even worse, at least it had some mass to it. Gotta drive them like you're riding a motorcycle.

For those curious:
Note they talk about lack of seat belts, airbag and such to help the passenger... That doesn't help at all when the entire cabin was crushed.

Right, Windows 11. I still haven't bothered to even look into all of the features (or lack of features) it actually adds. I love how our school district just finally upgraded everything to Windows 10 and M$ announces they've changed their mind about 10 being the last version of Windows soon after.

My oldest car is a 2001 Saturn SC2, that's got a unibody construction and crumple zones. I wish I were rich to own classic cars like that. Rust eats everything here, so classics of any kind aren't cheap. I just like being able to feel the road, the power steering, the clutch and the shifter. Everything in the Sonic is electronic. Playing a video game with my G27 racing wheel with force feedback feels more realistic than actually driving that car. I can't even tell it is losing traction on the highway until I visibly see myself drift out of sync with where I have moved the wheel.

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #7 on: Tue, 09 November 2021, 18:15:08 »
When I was 7 Dad bought Mother a 1959 Impala *convertible* light metallic blue with a white top and blue interior, pretty much like this:

It was  AWESOME  and all the other kids were jealous of me. We kids used to stand up in the back when we were out on the road, and when my Dad went over rolling hills fast enough for us to come up off the seat, my sister called them "stomach bumps"
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Offline Maledicted

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #8 on: Wed, 10 November 2021, 07:30:57 »
When I was 7 Dad bought Mother a 1959 Impala *convertible* light metallic blue with a white top and blue interior, pretty much like this:

It was  AWESOME  and all the other kids were jealous of me. We kids used to stand up in the back when we were out on the road, and when my Dad went over rolling hills fast enough for us to come up off the seat, my sister called them "stomach bumps"

I'm generally not a fan of the aesthetics of cars of that period, but that car is beautiful. Why did you put convertible in quotes?

I had never even been in a convertible until I bought one recently. I have literally driven it with the top down whenever it is not below 40 degrees Fahrenheit and/or raining ever since.

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #9 on: Wed, 10 November 2021, 07:43:08 »
I emphasized convertible, those are asterisks not quotes.

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Offline Leslieann

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #10 on: Fri, 10 December 2021, 10:46:14 »
Nvidia re-released the 2060 to help combat the shortage, possibly a 12gb version, however it''s gpu is pretty much a common 2060, not a super, so performance will not be as good as a Super despite added ram. Theya lso refuse to give an MSRP, letting 3rd party vendors set the price....

AMD has now said 2022 will be no better than 2021 for chips.

If you want to see firsthand the sad state of things go drive by a few new car dealerships and pay attention to not just how empty the lot is, but what is on the lot. Many are using used cars and employee cars to keep the lots looking more full than they are. My local VW didn't have enough to put VW's on the plinth out front and now doesn't even have enough to fill all of the plinths without hurting the front row of the lot.
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Offline TaZeR

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #11 on: Thu, 14 April 2022, 07:21:40 »
Any update on how the chip supply is looking as of today?  I am looking to get myself some sort of computer for gaming, since the last desktop system I built was confiscated by the cops and not returned to me even though I won the case (****ing bastards).

So I'm on a budget of about $1000 more or less, I've been considering perhaps going with a gaming laptop as the GPUs seem to perform better than they used to in comparison to their desktop counterparts and the prices seem to have gone down if anything for a decent CPU/GPU combo in a gaming laptop?

I still have my 144hz gaming monitor, so I can go for a 60hz screen.  What do yall think, are the prices good enough to build a desktop rig?  One thing I thought about is buying like an off lease Dell Optiplex system or something like that in a tower where all I would have to do is plug in a GPU and a new power supply to convert it.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #12 on: Thu, 14 April 2022, 11:09:24 »
Prices are coming down and there is inventory, for the moment.

And while they may come down a bit more and come back in stock a bit more I honestly think it's temporary. This short bump is because PC companies understand how to order chips and so they've been making purchases and ordering appropriately unlike other industries.* A further dip is coming because Biden has taken out many of the tariffs, so that will help as well however companies know quite well that you're willing to pay more, so don't expect them to just drop prices right away and by the time that kicks in and prices drop it's possible the shortages will kick in again so you are trying to catch a short term dip. Don't forget there's a lot of questionable parts in the supply chain so even if you can buy it doesn't mean it will be good.

If you can buy now, buy now, not necessarily today as soon as you can.
You may spend a bit more than if you wait but at least you have the parts. If you wait for prices to drop more you may end up paying even more.  Other than crazy inflated prices, I ALWAYS recommend buying when you can, never wait for price or the next new thing because you will always be waiting. Buy what you can and enjoy it.


Why is it going to go back up?
World instability and demand, not demand for GPU's entirely but demand for chips in general, we've peaked our capacity and many fabs are running at 100% or over 100% just to keep up much less catch up which is really hard on them. At some point they need downtime to clean and maintenance. Bottom line is they can't do this until the new fabs come online and bail us out, so I firmly believe at some point things will start to go back up again.



Unfortunately $1000 is okay for a gaming system when times are good but right now that's pretty lean, sorry to say, things are still about 20-40% over what they should be.  Used is certainly a great idea, however NOT DELL. Dell is notorious for proprietary garbage (HP is slightly better). It will save you money now but cost you later when you can't upgrade without a new case and heat sink or something else. I would look for a nice deal on a used AMD chip (or 8th gen or newer Intel), ram and mobo then go new on everything else. AMD prices drop faster than Intel and while compatibility is a bit less, buying someone's working setup is a good way to avoid the hassle. Never buy a used standalone drive or PSU but if you get those in the deal, it's fine. Checkfor Win11 compatibility on AMD. On Intel aim for 6 core or better and 8th gen or newer, AMD you want a 3600 or better (2700 is fine but not Win11 compatible I think).


* Toyota is 2 currently YEARS behind on Hybrid Rav4 production depending on options and over 5 years on Land Cruiser (they discontinued LC sales in the US as a result). Ford Mustang Mach E, last I heard, was something like 9 months behind. NIssan is 3-6 months (which was already extended once) on certain Hybrid models. Most cars are not that far behind, but hybrids and EVs certainly are.
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Offline noisyturtle

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Re: Chip shortage update end of 2021.. more bad news
« Reply #13 on: Sat, 16 April 2022, 01:53:39 »
I don't even care anymore. I'm weirdly proud of how maxed out my outdated system is now, who needs a $3k series GPU when you got style  :cool: