Author Topic: Nightcaps: | | | (Read 45344785 times)

MUMU · « **Reply #9150 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:35:46 »

That blue thing in the key is glow in the dark? It's Stones ?

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Phitness · « **Reply #9151 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:36:42 »

Quote from: MUMU on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:35:46

That blue thing in the key is glow in the dark? It's Stones ?

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Gliter i think.

bthezebra · « **Reply #9152 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:37:38 »

man i wish there were not so many questions on here right before the sale, caused me to ignore the notifications to long enough to cook, thers should be a meta thread for general questions, anyways Goodluck to those that got in

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MUMU · « **Reply #9153 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:38:14 »

Cross fingers that there will be a day 9

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Phitness · « **Reply #9154 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:38:50 »

Quote from: bthezebra on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:37:38

man i wish there were not so many questions on here right before the sale, caused me to ignore the notifications to long enough to cook, thers should be a meta thread for general questions, anyways Goodluck to those that got in

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Yea would be nice if it was a locked thread like Bro has.

a clacktical mistake · « **Reply #9155 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:39:10 »

ETF please check email settings, they never seem to reach me somehow ..

Dragonbut · « **Reply #9156 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:39:41 »

Quote from: MUMU on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:38:14

Cross fingers that there will be a day 9

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Should be, though not necessarily Fugu. He said that more than Fugu will be in this sale and so far that's all there's been.

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nya · « **Reply #9157 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:40:53 »

Quote from: a clacktical mistake on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:39:10

ETF please check email settings, they never seem to reach me somehow ..

)

BAS1C · « **Reply #9158 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:41:44 »

Quote from: Phitness on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:38:50

Quote from: bthezebra on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:37:38
man i wish there were not so many questions on here right before the sale, caused me to ignore the notifications to long enough to cook, thers should be a meta thread for general questions, anyways Goodluck to those that got in

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Yea would be nice if it was a locked thread like Bro has.

That would make it too easy imo.

romevi · « **Reply #9159 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:41:56 »

Any cancellations?

AuthenticDanger · « **Reply #9160 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:42:42 »

Apparently I only win on odd days...

riktors · « **Reply #9161 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:43:00 »

First micro batch invoice

Cavemann6 · « **Reply #9162 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:43:10 »

Quote from: AuthenticDanger on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:42:42

Apparently I only win on odd days...

Better than no days

helladerpy · « **Reply #9163 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:46:18 »

No invoice for me, but glad to see some new winners :]

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TelFiRE · « **Reply #9164 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:52:24 »

0 for 5 attempts now

Guess I'm probably not getting in on any of these, chances are slimmer and slimmer every day. Well, grats to those who got one.

helladerpy · « **Reply #9165 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:53:05 »

Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:52:24

0 for 5 attempts now Guess I'm probably not getting in on any of these, chances are slimmer and slimmer every day. Well, grats to those who got one.

Keep your head up, the probability that you win increases with every submission!

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roostrc0gburn · « **Reply #9166 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:56:38 »

Quote from: helladerpy on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:53:05

Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:52:24
0 for 5 attempts now Guess I'm probably not getting in on any of these, chances are slimmer and slimmer every day. Well, grats to those who got one.
Keep your head up, the probability that you win increases with every submission!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

i dont think thats how probability works...

helladerpy · « **Reply #9167 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:58:59 »

Quote from: roostrc0gburn on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:56:38

Quote from: helladerpy on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:53:05
Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:52:24
0 for 5 attempts now Guess I'm probably not getting in on any of these, chances are slimmer and slimmer every day. Well, grats to those who got one.
Keep your head up, the probability that you win increases with every submission!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

i dont think thats how probability works...

Double edit: I am not a smart man

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jrau · « **Reply #9168 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:59:39 »

Quote from: roostrc0gburn on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:56:38

Quote from: helladerpy on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:53:05
Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:52:24
0 for 5 attempts now Guess I'm probably not getting in on any of these, chances are slimmer and slimmer every day. Well, grats to those who got one.
Keep your head up, the probability that you win increases with every submission!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

i dont think thats how probability works...

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. -Wayne Gretzky" -Michael Scott

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nativejibroney22 · « **Reply #9169 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 17:00:21 »

Quote from: AuthenticDanger on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:42:42

Apparently I only win on odd days...

On odd days does he make a new thread before hand and post a canary there?

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shadofist · « **Reply #9170 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 17:22:09 »

Quote from: bthezebra on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:37:38

man i wish there were not so many questions on here right before the sale, caused me to ignore the notifications to long enough to cook, thers should be a meta thread for general questions, anyways Goodluck to those that got in

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Same here dude

Nonster · « **Reply #9171 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 17:23:13 »

Quote from: shadofist on Tue, 27 June 2017, 17:22:09

Quote from: bthezebra on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:37:38
man i wish there were not so many questions on here right before the sale, caused me to ignore the notifications to long enough to cook, thers should be a meta thread for general questions, anyways Goodluck to those that got in

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Same here dude

Yea, it really blew up right before the sale. Fugu conspiracy?

asianboy30354 · « **Reply #9172 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 18:01:38 »

congrats to the winners! a lot of new ppl i think won this time around xD got tripped by the question once again but wp etf

TelFiRE · « **Reply #9173 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 18:40:02 »

Quote from: helladerpy on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:53:05

Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:52:24
0 for 5 attempts now Guess I'm probably not getting in on any of these, chances are slimmer and slimmer every day. Well, grats to those who got one.
Keep your head up, the probability that you win increases with every submission!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

What? No, that's not how probability works at all :/ quite the opposite in fact

Edit: Oops this was already addressed sorry lol

helladerpy · « **Reply #9174 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 19:00:59 »

Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 18:40:02

Quote from: helladerpy on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:53:05
Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:52:24
0 for 5 attempts now Guess I'm probably not getting in on any of these, chances are slimmer and slimmer every day. Well, grats to those who got one.
Keep your head up, the probability that you win increases with every submission!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

What? No, that's not how probability works at all :/ quite the opposite in fact

Edit: Oops this was already addressed sorry lol

So out of curiosity, how would you go about calculating the probability of winning over multiple raffle style events? Something along the lines of 1 - ((pLoss) ^ # raffles) [ assuming pLoss is the same for every event]?

TelFiRE · « **Reply #9175 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 19:03:37 »

Quote from: helladerpy on Tue, 27 June 2017, 19:00:59

Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 18:40:02
Quote from: helladerpy on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:53:05
Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:52:24
0 for 5 attempts now Guess I'm probably not getting in on any of these, chances are slimmer and slimmer every day. Well, grats to those who got one.
Keep your head up, the probability that you win increases with every submission!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

What? No, that's not how probability works at all :/ quite the opposite in fact

Edit: Oops this was already addressed sorry lol

So out of curiosity, how would you go about calculating the probability of winning over multiple raffle style events? Something along the lines of 1 - ((pLoss) ^ # raffles) [ assuming pLoss is the same for every event]?

The problem with probability is it doesn't factor in bad luck.

But seriously, the chances are much much lower with each passing day, because way more people enter. Especially today with 5 minute window and extra alert time. With the exception of Day 7 if you got the question right, which I kick myself for not doing heh.

helladerpy · « **Reply #9176 on:** Tue, 27 June 2017, 19:07:45 »

Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 19:03:37

Quote from: helladerpy on Tue, 27 June 2017, 19:00:59
Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 18:40:02
Quote from: helladerpy on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:53:05
Quote from: TelFiRE on Tue, 27 June 2017, 16:52:24
0 for 5 attempts now Guess I'm probably not getting in on any of these, chances are slimmer and slimmer every day. Well, grats to those who got one.
Keep your head up, the probability that you win increases with every submission!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

What? No, that's not how probability works at all :/ quite the opposite in fact

Edit: Oops this was already addressed sorry lol

So out of curiosity, how would you go about calculating the probability of winning over multiple raffle style events? Something along the lines of 1 - ((pLoss) ^ # raffles) [ assuming pLoss is the same for every event]?

The problem with probability is it doesn't factor in bad luck.

But seriously, the chances are much much lower with each passing day, because way more people enter. Especially today with 5 minute window and extra alert time. With the exception of Day 7 if you got the question right, which I kick myself for not doing heh.

Agreed, I was just wondering how you would derive the generic probability across a course of constantly sized raffles (not factoring in luck).

Also, the other curve ball is the number of valid entries which is more relevant. Yesterday had 29 for example :]

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Dragonbut · « **Reply #9177 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 01:21:24 »

I'm pretty sad cause I was at the store with someone, they took an extra 15 minutes or so looking at stuff, and then when I got home and checked the sale had been done about 15 minutes prior.

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Andrewbot5 · « **Reply #9178 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 03:57:29 »

I sense a Golemfish rerun some day this week, we have already gotten Fire Guppy and Hexter's Notion from the original Fugu sale.

forevermadrigal · « **Reply #9179 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 05:13:30 »

I wanna see Shoals or Deep Ocean

BAS1C · « **Reply #9180 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 09:05:01 »

Crossing canary toes for Day 9 🙈

danielucf · « **Reply #9181 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:23:43 »

Quote from: BAS1C on Wed, 28 June 2017, 09:05:01

Crossing canary toes for Day 9 🙈

Ask and you shall receive

DirtyMonkey43 · « **Reply #9182 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:51:02 »

Where is everyone?! Let's get the title change hype goin !

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Dragonbut · « **Reply #9183 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:52:57 »

Quote from: DirtyMonkey43 on Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:51:02

Where is everyone?! Let's get the title change hype goin !

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Title change isn't here yet though feelsbad

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DirtyMonkey43 · « **Reply #9184 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:53:21 »

Quote from: Dragonbut on Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:52:57

Quote from: DirtyMonkey43 on Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:51:02
Where is everyone?! Let's get the title change hype goin !

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Title change isn't here yet though feelsbad

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Right! So we gotta get the train goin to bring it

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Dragonbut · « **Reply #9185 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:55:36 »

Quote from: DirtyMonkey43 on Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:53:21

Quote from: Dragonbut on Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:52:57
Quote from: DirtyMonkey43 on Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:51:02
Where is everyone?! Let's get the title change hype goin !

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title change isn't here yet though feelsbad

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Right! So we gotta get the train goin to bring it

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How's this?

COME TO US OH GREAT CANARY
(*)>
/ )
/"

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icedogg · « **Reply #9186 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 11:56:49 »

Hoping for a late Canary tonight

Have a concert this evening, wouldn't be able to check until much later.

ArchDill · « **Reply #9187 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 12:01:02 »

C'mon. Let the poor dead canary spirit rest.

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meepmeep · « **Reply #9188 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 12:06:02 »

(
( ) )
( ) )
() ____.______._____
.--. ----- | _ - HYPE - |
__||___|[_]| |.|#|.[].[].[]..|
o)__ |_ | ..|=|_|-|___________|
__ <(__(*)_(*)_~_____~(*)____(*)_____
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

asianboy30354 · « **Reply #9189 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 12:07:49 »

^this guy hypes

BAS1C · « **Reply #9190 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 12:10:00 »

Quote from: asianboy30354 on Wed, 28 June 2017, 12:07:49

^this guy hypes

Hypes af.

helladerpy · « **Reply #9191 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 12:11:55 »

Canary died for our caps. Praise be to canary!

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HardcoreDesk · « **Reply #9192 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 13:38:34 »

Day 42 thread when?

BAS1C · « **Reply #9193 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 13:40:51 »

ITS HAPPENING.

asianboy30354 · « **Reply #9194 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 13:40:57 »

name change hype!

chroness · « **Reply #9195 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 13:43:11 »

Still a long time until ETF allowed to post on mm though

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asuar034 · « **Reply #9196 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 13:43:18 »

Time speculations.

Based off the 48hr rule on /mm

He can post no earlier than 11:30pm-ish EST correct?

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Nonster · « **Reply #9197 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 13:43:30 »

Never ending Poisoned Summer! When is the 48hr mark for ETF to post /mm?

DirtyMonkey43 · « **Reply #9198 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 13:43:52 »

Quote from: asuar034 on Wed, 28 June 2017, 13:43:18

Time speculations.

Based off the 48hr rule on /mm

He can post no earlier than 11:30pm-ish EST correct?

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Seems about right, unless he has worked an exception out

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AuthenticDanger · « **Reply #9199 on:** Wed, 28 June 2017, 13:44:43 »

Start the 7 hour 54 minute countdown!

News:

Author Topic: Nightcaps: | | | (Read 45344785 times)