geekhack
geekhack Community => Off Topic => Topic started by: tp4tissue on Tue, 11 August 2020, 20:50:24
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Is'gon be better ? worse ? bout-same ?
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Isn't this a bit premature? Why do people keep talking about a second wave in the US- has the country made it past the first wave yet? i.e. have new infection numbers ever been brought under control for an extended amount of time?
How many months has it been now?
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Well, we didn't have a uniform lockdown, but I'd say for example NY/NJ is past 1st wave.
(https://i.imgur.com/E12R2ah.gif)
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We have very different perspectives of "under control" then. My 'home' state back in Australia has had a flare up, which means they've seen on average 10 new cases a day for the past two weeks. Population isn't as high as NY though, 8M instead of 19M. Looks like NY has been averaging 700+ day.
If we're going to call that 'past the first wave', I guess the second will happen as soon as any restrictions at all are relaxed- travel or socialisation. Clearly, the virus is still widespread in the state, so as soon as current restrictions are eased, boom.
In fact, hasn't this already been the pattern there? I'm not paying very close attention as I don't live there, but I thought states that started relaxing generally got fairly quick spikes in numbers as a consequence.
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I'm guessing UK will have second wave in month or two.
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has the country made it past the first wave yet?
The re-opening happened while the first wave was still in its early stages and it will not end until there is an *EFFECTIVE* vaccine *AND THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE ACTUALLY USE IT*.
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Truth be told, it was a rhetorical question. I cannot fathom what sort of mental gymnastics must be required for people in the US to tell themselves that they're through the first wave. To a foreigner, it's simply mind boggling and total wishful thinking.
Talking about state by state waves, why does this even matter if there are neighbouring states with high numbers, air transport is still running, and state borders remain open? It's just a long, drawn out, first wave ebbing and flowing around the entire country.
Australia has had states close borders using police and military. There are hotel quarantines for residents returning to the country and the national airline has grounded international flights. They had a couple weeks of zero or single digit infections throughout the states, now that marked the end of their first wave (and they have entered their second shortly after things loosened up a little). New York, which subsided to 700+ infections per day, that's not the end of a wave by any sane metric.
We're in a third wave out where I'm living. We went from single digits up to over a hundred a day for a week, now back down to sub 100.
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I'm guessing UK will have second wave in month or two.
Schools go back early September and the parents in the playground who will have to chat to catch up are free to return to work, so unless masks are a strongly enforced legal requirement no way will it take as long as two months for the second wave.
Expecting the same virtual non-event here though, not many cases as not a city and no beach to attract infected morons from afar. Wouldn't be surprised if every big city gets locked down again, as many are already.
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Considering my area hasn't even gotten past the initial wave, it'll be more of an extension of the 1st wave (can't have a second wave if you never get past the first). But I can see it starting to spring up further in another month or so as temperatures start to decline in most areas.