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geekhack Community => Off Topic => Topic started by: Leslieann on Sat, 24 June 2023, 00:55:26

Title: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: Leslieann on Sat, 24 June 2023, 00:55:26
Timeline as best I can tell.

So a few weeks/months ago, a Russian commander in Ukraine got drunk and shelled a Wagner battalion (neo-nazi paramilitary mercenary group who were considered Putin's private army), he laughed it off and they went in and took him out. This soured relations but all seemed fine.

Today(?) the Ministry of Defense screwed up and bombed a Wagner battalion.
Now they're pissed and vowing revenge on anyone involved, including a bunch of Russian troops (10k is the rumor).
His troops head back to Russia towards Rostov where the Ministry of Defense is headquartered for the Ukraine offensive, not sure if Wagner endorsed it, it sounds like maybe not initially.
The Wagner commander gets branded traitor/mutineer and issues an arrest warrant so now he's in on it as well.
Russia then bans Google News to silence outside news.
Yandex (Russian search engine) banned the Wagner commander's name from search.
The latest They basically surrounded the town, took the streets and bridges then surrounded the Ministry of Defense.
A top Russian battalion refused to mobilize against them.
Other Russian battalions are scared or support them.
Then a (small?) convoy left towards Moscow, a heli attacked and Wagner shot it down.
Apparently many random skirmishes so far.

The latest news is Wagner's commander issued a press release stating he's in a convoy with 25k troops on his way to Moscow and more fights have broken out.



This may or may not be 100%accurate especially the timeline. The news is fast, sporatic due to news blackouts and it's a way,  and there's translation issues. So...

I'm not sure how many good troops Russia still has, much less in Moscow but the Wagner mercs are well trained, well equipped and battle hardened. Even if Russia knocks them down it's very possibly going to be the end of the Ukraine offensive as without Wagner they probably have zero chance.  Worse still for Putin it could weaken Russia enough that Ukraine (who has stated they're watching) could try another offensive and with out Wagner's help Russia could be in trouble. There's also a small revolutionary force that has been freeing Russian towns for a few weeks as well.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: tp4tissue on Sat, 24 June 2023, 01:19:26
'Murica is shipping DU ammo into vkra1ne. this stuff has a high contamination rate, look no further than 1raq, their children hospital is pretty horrific with birth defects owing mostly due to our use of DU in that country.

Hopefully the conflict ends before too much of that stuff is cast into the environment.

Will it end soon ?

Let's say power change hands, we'll have pvt1n 2, and they still can't capitulate, both sides have invested a tremendous amount of prestige in this matter.

The bad part is we're on the hook as much as they are.

If ne1 is interested in DU ammo, look into work done by Dama(1o L0pez who grew up in the town where it was first developed. The health hazards are overwhelming.

Also there's a .pdf document by Doctor Ma5s1mo zu((he7, many photos of the impact he's witnessed.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: iri on Sat, 24 June 2023, 04:17:43
Timeline as best I can tell.

So a few weeks/months ago, a Russian commander in Ukraine got drunk and shelled a Wagner battalion (neo-nazi paramilitary mercenary group
I thought "where would the bull**** start" and the answer is, on the second line.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: iri on Sat, 24 June 2023, 04:20:22
Yandex (Russian search engine) banned the Wagner commander's name from search.
made this Yandex search literally right now

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: Findecanor on Sat, 24 June 2023, 08:27:39
You can't tell what these Russian military leaders' motivations really are by listening to their claims about who did what, because they always tell lies. You can only look at what they are actually doing.

Perhaps this is a reaction against Putin's generals, like what is claimed. Perhaps this is a military coup long in the planning. Perhaps this is a diversion for an attack on the Ukraine. Perhaps this is a long-time planned scheme for Putin to blame the whole war on Prigoszyn (sp?) so as to get out of it. Perhaps this is a plot to find an excuse for escalating the war.
At this moment, WE DON'T KNOW. We can only watch, and hope for the best.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: iri on Sat, 24 June 2023, 12:16:17
There's also a small revolutionary force that has been freeing Russian towns for a few weeks as well.
OK, let's look who was 'freeing' Russian towns:

Quote from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65681806
Its leader is known as Denis Kapustin or Denis Nikitin, a Russian nationalist, and the group openly espouses a mono-ethnic Russian state.
Wow, Leslieann is a literal nazi sympatiser.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: iri on Sat, 24 June 2023, 13:21:21
OK, it's over. Boring.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: CaesarAZealad on Sat, 24 June 2023, 16:49:03
Yandex (Russian search engine) banned the Wagner commander's name from search.
made this Yandex search literally right now

(Attachment Link)
Yandex sounds like something you'd look up anime girls on. Like exclusively.

Either way this 3 day occupation is taking awfully long.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: tp4tissue on Sat, 24 June 2023, 17:35:58
what's the update, not seeing a whole bunch of coverage.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: Leslieann on Sun, 25 June 2023, 01:18:59
Quote from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65681806
Its leader is known as Denis Kapustin or Denis Nikitin, a Russian nationalist, and the group openly espouses a mono-ethnic Russian state.
Wow, Leslieann is a literal nazi sympatiser.
That's a jump.
I'm not routing for Russia, Wagner or the rebels, I would like the Ukraine war to end.
Oh and the Yandex thing may have only applied to Russia or may have just been rumor.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: Leslieann on Sun, 25 June 2023, 01:37:21
what's the update, not seeing a whole bunch of coverage.
Wagner demanded two people be delivered to him to call it off, no word if he was given those people.
They got through a bunch of checkpoints with minimal effort, shot down a heli and a jet (no deaths supposedly) and got within 120 miles of Moscow before Belarus brokered a deal to stop the whole thing.

The deal:
Has the leader going to Belarus, friend of Putin or not, I think I'd be disappearing as soon as I got there and watch what I ate. I could see friends and foes of Putin trying to take him out.
Wagner troops are not going to face charges and are being pushed into to the Russian army a different merc group named MOD, though apparently no sooner had they signed and Russian troops started ransacking their homes. I could even see his own troops feeling betrayed now (again).

Meanwhile Ukraine made some gains in the confusion.

Edit: correction to troop pledge
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: iri on Sun, 25 June 2023, 06:38:07
Quote from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65681806
Its leader is known as Denis Kapustin or Denis Nikitin, a Russian nationalist, and the group openly espouses a mono-ethnic Russian state.
Wow, Leslieann is a literal nazi sympatiser.
That's a jump.
Not really, just a natural reaction to someone calling nazi attacks "freeing towns". I'm glad that you don't root for them lol
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: Leslieann on Sun, 25 June 2023, 12:35:09
Quote from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65681806
Its leader is known as Denis Kapustin or Denis Nikitin, a Russian nationalist, and the group openly espouses a mono-ethnic Russian state.
Wow, Leslieann is a literal nazi sympatiser.
That's a jump.
Not really, just a natural reaction to someone calling nazi attacks "freeing towns". I'm glad that you don't root for them lol
Just cheering for a disruption to the war.

Freeing was originally in quotes but I removed it to keep it somewhat impartial.
While they seem to be doing revolution things I'm sure Ukraine's propaganda arm is amplifying anything they do. Anyone can walk into the middle of a town and declare it or themselves free, sovereign citizens do it all the time, it doesn't really mean anything. Maybe they're more than that though, I have no idea, so I tried to be impartial about it.

Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: tp4tissue on Sun, 25 June 2023, 12:38:55
Not alot of press on the DU ammun1ti0n. They are very to><ic.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: Leslieann on Mon, 26 June 2023, 18:37:58
Well only took 2 days to start to fall apart.
Word is it was all called off due to threats to the head of Wagner's Family and promises of no repurcussions.

The head of Wagner is complaining about Ministry of Defense again after they planned to disband Wagner roll uninvolved Wagner troops into Russian main military and confiscated one of three vans full of gold and cash intended for payroll and widow benefits for their fighters. Now Russia is refiling charges an some are wanting treason charges (as in up against the wall and shoot them) for those who participated.

Russia also claimed all Wagner troops were back in Ukraine but people on the street have been seeing them around town acting like nothing had happened.
Despite Russian initial claims of no dead, there were several pilots killed.

Personally, I think the "deal" was always a ruse to buy time.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: tp4tissue on Mon, 26 June 2023, 19:06:02
What were they buying time for?
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: chyros on Tue, 27 June 2023, 02:45:30
All I know is that all the official Russian statements are false.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: iri on Tue, 27 June 2023, 04:52:40
Leslieann's are.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: Leslieann on Tue, 27 June 2023, 06:06:30
What were they buying time for?
To mount a response/plan.


Leslieann's are.
This is/was looking like the start of a historic event, I was just posting what I have seen here and there about what was happening.

I have no care for Russian (or Ukrainian) politics beyond them leaving Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: fohat.digs on Tue, 27 June 2023, 06:55:57

acting like nothing had happened.


I have not been following this boondoggle too closely, but Putin has never been kind to people who have crossed him.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: iri on Tue, 27 June 2023, 13:42:11
Leslieann's are.
This is/was looking like the start of a historic event, I was just posting what I have seen here and there about what was happening.

I have no care for Russian (or Ukrainian) politics beyond them leaving Ukraine.
I mean, you are literally spreading fake news without sources.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: CaesarAZealad on Tue, 27 June 2023, 14:37:36
Leslieann's are.
This is/was looking like the start of a historic event, I was just posting what I have seen here and there about what was happening.

I have no care for Russian (or Ukrainian) politics beyond them leaving Ukraine.
I mean, you are literally spreading fake news without sources.
Yeah, they'd fit right in with the russian media!
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: Leslieann on Tue, 27 June 2023, 16:36:20
Leslieann's are.
This is/was looking like the start of a historic event, I was just posting what I have seen here and there about what was happening.

I have no care for Russian (or Ukrainian) politics beyond them leaving Ukraine.
I mean, you are literally spreading fake news without sources.

Fake news = news you don't like.

It was supposed to be casual conversation and you jump in with calling me a Nazi and several days later(?) suddenly demanding sources. Since when did GH become your trusted source for world news?
Go jump in a lake.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: iri on Wed, 28 June 2023, 03:18:27
Fake news = news you don't like.
No, they are just fake. And it takes seconds to disprove some of them, like that one with Yandex. I can go over your statements with sources if you like.

you jump in with calling me a Nazi
I didn't call you a nazi. I called you a nazi sympathiser for a very valid reason that was explained to you.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: fohat.digs on Wed, 28 June 2023, 08:26:36
My kids were here for a rare visit so I was not paying close attention, but this whole affair seems utterly bizarre and pointless from the surface perspective.

What happened, and what didn't? Make a big noise and then say "Nothing to see here, folks, just move on."

Clearly *something* happened and we may never know, but what does it mean for the Ukraine War?

From over here it looks like an enigma wrapped in a mystery. A smoke screen so that Prigozhin can escape to a remote moutain villa in the 3rd world?

Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: tp4tissue on Wed, 28 June 2023, 09:22:45
Clearly *something* happened and we may never know, but what does it mean for the Vkra1neWar?

From over here it looks like an enigma wrapped in a mystery. A smoke screen so that Pr1go2hin can escape to a remote moutain villa in the 3rd world?

We'll never know what happened.  But the Vkra1ne war is in attrition. Our western powers seem content to fight to the last Vkra1n1an.  Vkra1ne can not destroy Rv55ia. The converse is not true.

Initially we were hoping for a successful co0p which in some twist of fate might allow Rv55ia to save face and reduce,  but it's increasingly looking like that's not what the western Capitalist mi1itary industrial structure desires. The US directly interceded France's attempt at de-escalation negotiation.

The main problem is we lost the last 5 wars against opponents with basically macguyver level gear.

This war is entirely about Ego from both sides, Vkra1ne will unfortunately probably end the same way as iraq/afghan/syria.

The worst is yet to come, with large shipments of DU-ammo going in, contamination will result in birth defects well into the future, if there's any Vkra1ne left.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: katushkin on Fri, 30 June 2023, 04:46:38
It was fun while it lasted.

Is "retiring to Minsk" going to be a new euphemism for those who go on extended holiday after disagreeing with Putin?
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: Findecanor on Fri, 30 June 2023, 05:39:28
Is "retiring to Minsk" going to be a new euphemism for those who go on extended holiday after disagreeing with Putin?
I think "committed suicide" will remain the primary euphemism.
Prigozjin (sp) is too well known, and too protected for that to happen to.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: katushkin on Fri, 30 June 2023, 07:27:40
I doubt it. He now has enemies within Wagner as well as the Russian MoD, as one of the main reasons for the uprising was because he didn’t want Wagner merged into the Russian military. Now Wagner is being merged into the Russian military, seemingly, as part of his deal to have all charges dropped.

I hope incredibly bad things happen to him and everyone in Wagner.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: tp4tissue on Fri, 30 June 2023, 08:13:31
This is alot of guesswork, we don't have the facts.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: katushkin on Fri, 30 June 2023, 09:10:49
This is alot of guesswork, we don't have the facts.

About him having enemies in Wagner and the RuMoD or the war crimes part? Because he has said in his own videos that he didn't want Wagner as part of the RuMoD
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: tp4tissue on Fri, 30 June 2023, 10:13:29
This is alot of guesswork, we don't have the facts.

About him having enemies in Wagner and the RuMoD or the war crimes part? Because he has said in his own videos that he didn't want Wagner as part of the RuMoD

Just saying for every info they release, there are obscure happenstances behind the scene which makes our above board interpretations inaccurate.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: fohat.digs on Fri, 30 June 2023, 10:17:40

we don't have the facts.


for every info they release, there are obscure happenstances


We in the West probably know very little about what is actually giong on, and have far too little to even speculate.

But if I worked for a life insurance company, I wouldn't be writing any policies for anybody in that part of the world these days.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: katushkin on Fri, 30 June 2023, 11:15:21
This is alot of guesswork, we don't have the facts.

About him having enemies in Wagner and the RuMoD or the war crimes part? Because he has said in his own videos that he didn't want Wagner as part of the RuMoD

Just saying for every info they release, there are obscure happenstances behind the scene which makes our above board interpretations inaccurate.

Good to see you haven’t changed after all this time tp and your posts still make no sense.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: Darthbaggins on Fri, 30 June 2023, 12:03:21
Fake news = news you don't like.
No, they are just fake. And it takes seconds to disprove some of them, like that one with Yandex. I can go over your statements with sources if you like.

you jump in with calling me a Nazi
I didn't call you a nazi. I called you a nazi sympathizer for a very valid reason that was explained to you.
Pretty much calling someone a Nazi
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: iri on Sat, 01 July 2023, 04:54:58
We in the West probably know very little about what is actually giong on
Truer words were never spoken.
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: fohat.digs on Sat, 01 July 2023, 07:19:18
What sources do you recommend for more reliable information?
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: fohat.digs on Sun, 02 July 2023, 16:18:35
What was being called a "coup" or a "revolt" a week ago is now being recast as a "protest" to bring attention to some sort of "rivalry" between the Russian military and the Wagner Group.

Assuming that the latter is a better description, where did the "revolution" narrative come from, and, maybe more importantly, how did a media event that embarassed Putin seem to simply evaporate with few consequences?
Title: Re: Russian Revolution in progress...
Post by: tp4tissue on Sun, 02 July 2023, 17:17:50
That's the problem with an Un-Winnable war.

Rvss has the nv(lear shield.  NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS, they can suicide the planet on their own, EVEN INDIA has this capacity.  It's unfortunate that Nv(lear weapons are critical to peace, but it is what it is.

So, in a tugg-of-war that goes on Indefinitely,  All the Vkra1n1ans are dead is the only thing we'll have to show for it.

It doesn't actually matter which side capitulates first,  My best guess is, Vkra1n will have to surrender to Rvss1a eventually.

The US can't let down its pride given how much prestige we've invested, waving our big military around, and it's not officially OUR WAR, even though it 100% is.

Rvss and Vkra1nians are not dissimilar enough to say they're fundamentally 2 different nations. So, Rvss will never let this go, out of again, Invested Prestige.


In the End, Vkra1n's own oligarchs will decide, everyone dies, WHAT the hell for ?  History assures us, pride is worth less than Potatoes.

The whole concept of Nation-hood is a remnant of Colonialism, and it's inappropriate given our science and understanding of how the world actually works.


This war, as with EVERY SINGLE WAR, is the Rich Oligarch's war, fighting over who gets to exploit the taxes and labor of the Plebian Class.   The working class kids go off to die, while the Oligarchs of Their Nations Feast.