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geekhack Community => Off Topic => Topic started by: tp4tissue on Fri, 19 September 2025, 23:55:23
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/Investing with Tp4
/Not financial advice
/Entertainment Only
Ok, so what can Nvidia do w/ Intel.
Intel's problem is power efficiency and peak performance. It isn't anywhere close to TSMC.
BUTtttt, if you scale back, and lower the threshold, where with no strict requirements, Neither Peak, Nor Power Efficiency. You have Consumer Laptops.
The medium powered laptops, in the 50-100watt range. These won't suffer from Intel's current weakness, and with an Nvidia GPU, could be decent products.
The problem is, AMD can bring the pain ANYTIME. They have x3d, they have 7.5ghz incoming, they have new memory controller that can do 8000 soldered, 10000 future.
AMD can chase intel down across the entire stack. Mobile is not a guarantee for intel, we also can't possibly buy enough laptops which have very low margins to saturate Intel's foundaries.
Tp4 supposes, perhaps, Nvidia can make GPUs on Intel's processes. And if the demand is high enough, maybe the small players just want to buy gear, and they don't care about weaker / hotter running parts?
This is debatable. Don't think there is that much money left out there that wants to buy more machines other than China. Europe is flat broke, and they just lost their best Energy supply, Rv55n Gas.
China is so focused on its own semicon right now, they can probably achieve parity in < 8 years.
If China's good at anything, it's books/ engineering and massive infrastructure investment.
They went from No electric cars to the #1 car exporter (gas+ electric) in the world in ~6 years.
Semiconductor isn't that much harder, if you're looking at the scale and size of "the Machine."
Intel's problem is still those foundaries, and they're just burning Infinite Money.
Tp4 can't think of any other product Nvidia could actually tap Intel to make that would SCALE-enough to fill utilization break even.
So the only logical "fathoming" would be, if the INVESTOR, StonXpurt Tp4, Believed, that Intel is flat simply because they don't have enough money ??
And if Nvidia injected enough cash, Intel can buy its way out of the hole?, the problem is this is highly-unlikely the case.
This doesn't track that well, because semiconductor is a form of alchemy, and recipes. The reason Intel can't keep up with TSMC is because TSMC has Chinese people.
Chinese people are really good at irrationally working alot. Western developers need sleep. TSMC scientists have a 24/7 Lab shift, day shift, night shift, the recipe experiments DO NOT stop.
No American PHD grad is willing to do something like that, and there just arn't enough of them for Intel to Hire. They want work-life-balance. The Chinese don't do that.
Remember China graduates 600,000 engineers a year.
Taiwan less, but they have the same educational/ work culture.
What Intel needs is really just Chinese people. That is really the difference.
Strategically, the administration focus on White-power, is going against the scientific necessities of high-tech industrialism.
Then there's the theory floating, well, Nvidia uses TSMC foundaries, if they just divulge some "secret sauces" to INTC, INTC can catch up.
It's not that easy. The secret isn't written on paper, the secret is a long chain of workflows that isn't easily replicated by a highly technical-WORKFORCE that does not exist in western foundaries.
Well, maybe Nvidia can buy Intel outright, even if they allow that, Taiwan has a national interest in INTC Never reaching parity. If anything TSMC is likely to sabotage // back stab ANY American attempt at semiconductor crown.
Taiwan would cease to exist in less than 24 hours if not for TSMC.
StonXpurt Tp4 believes, all the negotiation hoopla about TSMC investing / building fabs in the US is alot of Bull****. They might do it for the camera, but look at what's been accomplished so far. ZIP, f'all.
Meanwhile, you don't see TSMC dragging their asses on their own foundry upgrades and products. So, the deliberate / bad-faith sandbagging is pretty apparent.
Tp4 does not believe Taiwan is at all Friendly with the USA. Let's say ok, they give us their scientists and all relevant research and build machines IN THE UNITED STATES. So what. What reason would we have to bother protecting Taiwan then?? They would become Geo-politically Irrelevant.
There's no possible negotiations along this route. America has to do this alone, and the MORE we involve Taiwan, the more they MAY deliberately- mismanage / sandbag our Semiconductors.
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If ne1 has bought an Arc / battlemage igpu intel product, Prolly consider returning it if you need it to work "in the future."
Support is probably getting axed.
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Intel needs product flows probably in the 200-300 billion range.
The wholeeee of the laptop market is worth <200 billion.
Tp4 just doesn't see any AI product intel could make, that would give them the edge.
The other problem is, AI optimized products only do AI, they're not great for general computing.
We're also at the cusp of the cap-out of additional compute for consumers. Consumers DO NOT have a real NEED for more compute.
You don't need 1kilowatt gpu to make games fun, in fact, the market is already so saturated with video games, there aren't enough PEOPLE to play them all.
The pivot for AI to create its own market share is correct from a "get society to spend as much money as possible," capitalistic goal, but this is directionally flawed in that these systems and machines are not being put to good use. They're put towards frivolous use.
FUEL is finite.
Very soon, Absent Abundent Wrongly priced Cheap Oil, we're going to find that Big Machines like our diamonds and bricks of gold are just elaborate paper weights.
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