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geekhack Community => Off Topic => Topic started by: tp4tissue on Fri, 13 March 2026, 18:47:08
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It seems people are still in denial about the reality of Global Economic Recession.
Please observe this graph, ENERGY and GDP has NEVER diverged. It simply can not.
[attach=1]
Anything you can possible do or intend to do, REQUIRES energy.
Every year, Developed countries only manage 1-3% GDP. Even Wizard-China, which maintained crazy 15-20% growth has slowed down to only 3-5% post Magic.
20% of global energy (25% of seaborne oil, 20% of LNG) comes out of the Middle East.
WHAT do you suppose is the consequence of a SUDDEN-contraction of this magnitude.
Even if the US withdrew all forces tomorrow, we would STILL have to negotiate with 1R nto. We chose to atk THEM,
Their Published List of demands:
- That US and 1 srlt , recognize 1Rnto's rights
- That 1Rnto is paid REPARATIONS for the damage to the country and the people we killed.
- Security guarantee that no future wars such as this will ever happen again.
Do you think something this complicated can be negotiated in anything less than 1 month, 2 months, 6 months, 2-3 years?
When oil projections for 1 month is at $200-300 / barrel, $500-600 at 6-8 weeks. Basic gasoline price will be $10-$25, Don't forget about diesel, those amazon packages don't arrive by magic.
1 rnto also already has a Tri-lateral agreement with Rvss and China, as a key-founder of BRICS membership,
So you've got SUPER COMPLICATED, negotiations ahead.
NOW, what they can do is, IN THEORY, release the choke hold on the StraitofH for the time being DURING negotiations as good faith,
BUT Would they do that? They can hold it until November, Put the US and Europe into economic meltdown, and take their sweet time watching us burn.
,
The GUY, that they've got in charge now, the ayatlll'4's son, We bombed his father, his wife, and his baby daughter (3x confirmed dead), apparently his own legs got blown off (unconfirmed), and he's severely injured.
JUST Sayn', Blackrock preventing withdraws, what's next.
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I don't think it is an economic collapse, but a consolidation of wealth. Elimination of the middle class was always their plan, the ultra wealthy are just able to speedrun it now since they are using cheat modes to bypass corruption filters.
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Failure to understand Scaling.
If you have 100 Fuel, you can produce 100 units.
If you have 80 Fuel, you may only be able to produce 40-50 units.
A $1500 PC produce 400fps @ x-settings (9070xt)
A $1200 PC may only produce 100-200fps @ x-settings (4060)
The-Quality-Of-Life, GDP+etcetera, DIMINISHED, will FAR EXCEED that of a 20% reduction in Energy
They will masssage the numbers, but that will NOT change the underlying physical effects (MEGA INFLATION).
The Rate-of-reduction, in energy by THIS EVENT, is 100x that of the Oil Crisis in the 70s.
Buy everything YOU_NEED, NOW, Immediately, it can only get worse. (RICE, Machine tools, PCs, Television, Washing Machine, Oven)
DO NOT BUY, High luxury tax items, especially among categories you don't need.
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Hhmm...
This is basically game over for the American Economy.
We will almost certainly have to Default.
Positive:
We're doing stupid things with oil, now we can't.
The Petro-Dollar did not belong TO US, we are the Robbers/Parasites upon Mid-Ease oil. Now it rightly goes back to them.
A more equal world, a more humbling experience.
Potential upside is there,
We go back to a production based economy, we-succeed, free education, fair compensation, you can buy a house and feed your kids.
We beh3 ad a bunch of Billionaires.
Negative:
Possible Dystopia
_US, could go into a state of totalitarianism. TechBro-Feudalism
_Transitional Massive Unemployment.
_The US economy is consumption based, and it finances that consumption by issuing DEBT, DEBT that is pushed forward using MID-EASE petro-dollar recycling.
_Women/Blacks/Latinos will be severely-marginalized, if not outright enslaved
_South Indian/Chinese immigrants might get a slightly better status due to their technical expertise, but over time, they will almost 100% leave.
_Civil war possible
_Racial purges
_Suburbia will erode within 3 years to become unlivable under high energy costs. _if you drive to the grocery store, imagine adding $15-20 of gas to every weekend drive.
_Cities will become the default living space, for efficiency sake, but because of high energy cost, it will mostly be slum like conditions for most people.
_The US will attempt to go back to a production base, but it simply can't compete, as the civilian population is already too old, too lazy, too fat, too uneducated.
_The transition fails, we enter a mad-monarch scenario.
Countries like FRANCE/ JAPAN will also go down in flames, they will also have to DEFAULT.
MOST COUNTRIES, that DO NOT have their own oil, will have to refinance using the YUAN through sips.
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50% of all LNG carrier ships are stuck BEHIND the strait.
Europe would go into severe economic depression. That's why they're buying ever Cubic of gas from ANYONE selling.
So this idea that Europe is going to give several hundreds of Billions to Rvssss, annnnnnd pretend like they can fund the Vkr1nne front is ludicrous.
Tp4 has said from the beginning, Nato will fight to the last Vkran1an, and it's turned out to be exactly the case. Zlentskzzz, turns out he's been stealing from the war fund. Typical of installed dictators, remember, Dvmp is a Tv-personality, Zlentskzz is a LITERAL clown, that was his actual job prior to being installed.
Not saying the Democratically elected OTHER guy is any better, but the point is, it's been called from the beginning that they're all going to die.
FOR WHAT exactly? The aimless cadence of monkey shakespeare.
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Capitalism was a huge mistake, because human beings cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving
This has always been our greatest flaw as a species
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"Free-market capitalism, for "free market" in the libertarian sense, specifically.
Communism suffers from the same fallacy: people with power and influence cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving.
There is no "invisible hand" composed of all parts of the system that is governing things. The system has to be governed by people, through laws and regulations, and enforcement of those laws and regulations.
Conventions are good but not good enough: because that opens up the possibility of someone finding a way to ignore the conventions and disrupting the market.
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"Free-market capitalism, for "free market" in the libertarian sense
people with power and influence cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving.
There is no "invisible hand"
because human beings cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving
Capitalism can function well but that requires legitimate competition and regulation.
Included in "regulation" is appropriate taxation to ensure that each entity pays its fair share toward the good of the whole.
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Capitalism can NEVER WORK, because it doesn't model the reality of the system.
Capitalism, only attempts to model for "perceptual-happiness."
By turning Trillions of gallons of FUEL into some avenue of Happy, drugs, food, music, pornography, gambling, videogames(simulated murder).
WITHOUT asking, Happiness for whom or , Happiness for what purpose.
The entirety of the modern economy is WASTE, generate happiness for happiness sake, with ZERO consideration for the ECOLOGICAL systems which ultimately foot the bill.
The SAME ecological system that ALL LIFE on EARTH is dependent on, HAS NO SAY in ANY of human economic systems/thinking.
THEREFORE, CRASH IS HERE.
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Finance is in the idea phase of doing.
But because "PROGRESS" is shallowly/wrongly defined, FINANCE becomes Parasitic to the system, as it narrowly aims to FEED itself (to make more money).
This is why we constantly hear about fiscal policy, because Finance fails and we keep pounding down fistfuls of medication.
MEDICATION (Fiscal policy) only affects SYMPTOMS of Financial failure, it does not address the cause (Wrong goals).
Tp4 looks in the mirror. Tp4 is super fat, but instead of improving himself, he messes with the mirror, tries to bend it so as to look skinnier in the mirror.
THAT Horizon is the barrier to human problem solving.
Instead of aiming towards a Utopia, the average Human exposed to technology narrowly pursues Indefinite-Euphoria (in all domains).
There is no medicine/ policy that can fix this at scale. The machine has crashed.
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Look no further than the SWING RIOTS, where disgruntled plebs smashed up England's Threshing machines (wheat) and left a calling card post deed signed "Captain Swing."
The riots brought wealthy landlords to their knees, they had to reduce rent/tithes and increase wages. Social reform.
When a David fights a Goliath, David's got nothing to lose. It's always the case that DESTRUCTION is economical vs CONSTRUCTION.
So when it comes to Attrition, unless you have a 10^9999 advantage, Even something 10000x smaller can emit crippling damage.
Think about it this way, A BEE STING can Kill-some-people. A person is 281,540 x the mass of a BEE.
Asymmetrical Warfare.
1r 3nto's retaliation on qa trr's oil fields, caused 5 Billion in damages, + 20 Billion in ANNUAL lost revenue, projected repair time 5 years.
So, with $200000 worth of weapons, they caused $105,000,000,000 worth of damages.
Iren t0 situation is the Nation-State version of Captain Swing.
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nice
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Fohat, you've got the worst case of DDS.
|) is the greatest american president ever, if it weren't for the fact that he's being blackmailed, he would NEVER have gone to war.
On the matter with Maga, know this, Charlie Kirk actually WAS an all-american-Hero, now that we know what got him killed.
Yea, Charlie kirk does represent the Worst-America, bigotry, sexism, slavery, anti-lgbt, NOT a good guy. For sure.
He was all those things, BUT AT LEAST, He was FOR America, unlike, you know what.
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The "Worst" oil crisis we've ever had, Oil embargo, 1973, oil price (barrel) increased roughly 3-4x.
NOW, THAT was around 10% disruption to the oil consumption in 1973.
TODAY, Project 3ps7e zzz Fury is a 20% disruption, and not only that, but also LNG, + 30% of world wide fertilizer (Yes whole world earth).
The dependence in ALL ASPECTS of modern living, ON CHEAP OIL has only increased, NOTHING about the modern economy works without OIL.
The Gulf state, also has a SPECIAL oil, it's very good (economical) for conversion to DIESEL, the True BLOOD of the economy.
Everything will just stop working.
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So... them France did some maths.
They say 30-40% mid-eaz oil infrastructure damaged/destroyed.
Now, if you recall from Tp4 lessons, the Gulf represents 20% rough of world oil. Their oil is Also a SPECIAL oil particularly suited for Diesel vs American tight-oil which is suited for Plastics (not efficient for Diesel).
30-40% infrastructure problem, means at least 10% of world oil supply comes out BROKEN, even if somehow the whole world magically ended tensions overnight.
The 1973 oil embargo was only a 10% disruption.
That means, what we have going forward is 3-10 year potential Oil Embargo (1973).
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
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We like plastics on this forum. /s
There has been hope among some people that the current oil crisis would at least reduce some climate emissions, which have only gone up. Fat chance that it would even make a dent, but we could always hope.
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Emissions reduction is entirely hypothetical.
Every little bit counts, but the scientist already said, if you started 10 years ago, it would still be a catastrophic. We've got 3-5 Celcius baked in.
We have to reduce emission at least 50% within 20 years.
That's IMPOSSIBLE.
Which is why, Tp4 has given you guys the TRUE SOLUTION to climate change, eat 100% Veggies.
The 43% of all surface land used for grazing and growing feed crop represents 3x the NET emissions since the industrial revolution.
THERE IS NO OTHER SOLUTION, Do, or Die.
Clearly the world has chosen to die.
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If the weekend's US attack with Trooobs happen,
We will cross from 3-5 year infrastructure damage into 10-30 year energy infrastructure damage
Europe = Done.
Leave, if you can, go to (anada.
There's going to be no energy replacement.
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The sheer quantity of Copium going around right now.
Look how hard it is to build a Gaming PC right now, because of Ram, just this little ol' Ram. Everything else in the pipe is stuck. Lots of smaller PC retailers going out of business or shedding stock with 0 margins, because MOST stock comes in on Borrowed Money.
NOW imagine the CORE, FUNDAMENTAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE has a giant 20% HOLE in it.
To fill it, you need 2.5x Russia.
This is just a physical reality.
You can magically end the conflict tomorrow, and turn everything back on, and you're still 4-5 years out before restoring energy flows, fixing broken distillation vessels, pipes, well heads.
But, BY THAT TIME, the industrial process would have Entirely Collapsed in the interim, and permanently shutter the machinery that That-Fuel once flowed into.
So, asssssuming you had the political will and economic WILL to turn the machinery back on, MORE LAG TIME, Another 4-5 years.
The Negative Reverberations will be felt for the next 100 Years.
Assummning' we don't bomb ourselves to death.
No one can come in and plug this. GLOBAL DEPRESSION = GUARANTEED
You're going to see them MESS with the NUMBERS, this will NOT change the underlying physical reality of horrific pull back in day to day life.
And this WHOLE TIME, NO ONE is even TALKING ABOUT 100% VEGGIE,
The SINGULAR SOLUTION to our EXTINCTION LVL Crisis via Climate Change.
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People are CONFUSED by the State-Of-Events, because they don't understand the Economy, or its History.
Basically, the Petro Dollar System, means, the Money which comes out the Mid-eas Oil, Fundamentally BELONGS to the US.
The installed autocracies in the region, saudi, bahrein, uae, qatar, are merely US puppets, they're NOT REALLY even Vassel States., they're just drugged up local gangsters, that we tell what to do, we also sell them drugs*.
For example, they're allowed to INVEST their oil money IN, US Stock and Bonds, Services, But they have NO CONTROL over US Companies/ Policies in the Companies they invest in, regardless of their share of ownership. Of course they will have some influence, but NOT REALLY.
That money comes in, it allows the US economy, and its ancilliary the European economy, to BORRRROWW, as people will buy US debt to eventually TRADE for more Oil.
Through this process, The OIL in the mid-ease does not at all belong to the Mid-Eas (States*), it BELONGS to AMERICA.
America produce some of its own oil + gas, it uses up MOST of it (Diesel oil portion), the (Plastic portion) it sells, and the Mid-Eas oil + our gas, and their gas, it Sells.
The Mid Eas, is essentially an American pocketbook.
How does money even work, well If you didn't inflate, and print, PROFIT wouldn't be possible, it would be Zero-Sum, So by PRINTING, it makes profit possible, but it also mostly keeps the system in balanced debt, moving forward.
Because we control the PETRO DOLLAR, it allows us to PRINT and Selfishly-keep most of the benefits, we can just keep borrowing and fund "the lifestyle", America, the upper classes anyway, got to enjoy Living-Life, while outputting Minimal labor vs the rest of the world.
For example, a customer in America buys a bag of rice for $25, 15lbs, the farmer in India, was paid around $0.5 for that bag.
Now take the American pocket book away, WHAT are you left with. The western idea of A-Life collapses. If you take $25 and $0.5 lifestyle and you go from one to the other, you're looking at something like 1/3-1/6 multiple of what the typical Western-Lifestyle is like.
Imagine yourself with 1/3-1/6 the amount of purchasing power/ free time/ vacations.
DO UNDERSTAND 1 Thing, the LIFE we got to live, was on the Back of modern Slavery and Colonial Exploitation of resources that DID NOT BELONG TO US. It was Never-Just, infact, it was CRIMINAL.
The reduction will feel catestrophic, but it is at its core, More Equitable.
PREPARE YOURSELVES.
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The politicization out there "Right Now", Lays the blame squarely on the current administration.
THE REALITY is.
Clinton brought us here
Bush brought us here
OBAMA brought us here
Bidn brought us here
Dv p brought us here.
Every single 'murican president as far back as Ted Roo, would be considered WAR CRIMINALS under international Law.
We didn't lose the Empire overnight, every administration inched forward our Eventual Defeat.
We spent mid-eas oil , as if it belonged to us, it does not, and now it's being taken back.
THIS WAS ALWAYS GOING TO HAPPEN... it is in the NATURE of Empires to FAIL.
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People are exceptionally confused about GDP yet again. It's all about SCALE.
Our american GDP is 31.8 trillion
China's gdp is 20.6 trillion.
On the surface, you would think, there's alot more "Happening" on 1 side.
The reality however is,
An American crane operator, makes $150,000 a year, takes 2 half hour breaks a day, gets off at 4-6pm.
A Chinese crane operator, works 996, 12 hours a day, 6 days a week, makes $25,000 USD a year.
So, when you do the GDP, yea 1 side is way bigger, but the SCALE of it.
AI labs in the US, you might have 5 guys, each making $100-200,000.
AI labs in China, you got 50 guys, each making $5000-8000.
So when you COUNT up GDP, it's very much DIVORCED from what actually HAPPENS.
This is the same reason why OUR missiles trade so inefficiently, when they're hand made, and in the range of 2 million-15 million a piece.
It's just stupid economics. This is the true end of our empire, STUPID ECONOMICS.
It costs the US military 10-20x $$ to blow up the same building vs any other military. But our military budget is not 20x someone elses, and our manufacturing capacity is in 1 word, "Negligible."
The IDEA that we could win something -Militarily- absent the industrial capacity, and economic policy to feed the machine is ludicrous.
We're losing this war the same way we lost every war since Vietnam.
The only problem THIS TIME, is we're about to lose the LAST-of-our-Wallet, Mid-Eas OIL.
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There's literally NO way out of this 'Militarily"
Let's say Dmp goes through with the threats,, atks 1rno , and blows up all their oil and gas.
OK, they turn around, blow up all the GCC oil and gas.
WELLLLL, now you have a 32-35% loss in net world Oil, 20-25% loss in net Gas, 30-35% loss in net Fertilizer.
In the GLOBALIZED economy, in countries that Import just about everything, PRODUCE very-little,
Yea, we'll literally put ourselves back in the stone ages.
Imagine, Japn goes down, they import 80-90% of their oil and other material.
They make WIDGETS, very important ones, that go into Industrial processes, like Fanuc PWM controllers.
You pull something very fundamental out of industrial system, the system crashes, because nothing can move forward, and these components are very time-consuming to replace, if even possible.
The whole import export system works on DEBT, Import, means Borrowing, now the banks can't collect, nothing in, nothing out, The flow stalls, NOTHING WORKS.
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"His father would be so proud."
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This is not Maga's fault.
America has done this IDENTICALLY under ALL PRESIDENTS.
And the truth is, Democrat voters on average, 95% are all Maga, w/ blue hats.
Neither "BASE" understands what "THIS" country truly does, or how the "Economy" Works.
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If you went to the American people and said, would you rather have a Slushie machine or a missile.
They'd say slushie machine.
A single patriot pac3missiles we're wasting money on actually cost as much as 8400x Ninja Slushie Max
Ninja Slushie Max makes 150ozs of slushie per cycle, that's 4.5 LITERS of slushie, 1.2 Gallons.
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Ughh....
You see this ECONOMIC PHD Talking-heads in the Media saying how, oh this will be a great boom for China because they got solar panels, and everyone won't want OIL cars because of the Energy crisis.
THIS here is the Disconnect. These SILO-ED Moron PHDs don't know the first thing about the MATERIALS economy, are put in POSITIONS to run the Corporations and Government.
WTF are they talking about.
PLASTICS come from fossil fuels,
Aluminum and Steel mining,smelting,casting,forming is done on Fossil energy
- Why they often put steel/aluminum plants right next to Oil refineries hmm??
GLASS production, Usually Gas heating.
Organic Solar Cells
Diesel fuel for trucks, How are these solar panels coming to your house, they don't walk themselves.
JET fuel
SHIP Diesel (tar)
Workers installing solar-panels got to eat, they eat food, food produced with FERTILIZER, Via the Haber Bosch process
- Why are Fertilizer plants put next to Natural Gas plants, OH, because fixing nitrogen into ammonia, again FOSSIL FUELS.
- 50% of all the NITROGEN in the HUMAN BODY comes from this Fossil Fuel Driven Fertilizer production process.
I mean, the world's going to pewwps, and THIS IS WHY. You have entire heads of state and government that don't understand how anything is made.
THIS WAR will NOT be a big boom for Solar, There is only 1 true "Current" technological energy source, FOSSIL FUELS. It's the Beginning and the END, There is no alternative outside of the Science-Fiction.
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OMg, this suppposid learnnnned 'diplomat" talking about FUSION...
Saying things like Fusion is unlimited clean energy.
This guy, is not a physicist, Fusion is only unlimited clean energy on the SUN , with its immense gravity being able to fuse Hydrogen.
You CAN NOT do that on Earth.
No matter what, if you managed fusion on Earth, you still have nuclear waste, and stuff can still go boom.
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LOL, East West Pipeline Hit, 5-7 Million barrels..
LOLOLOLOLOLOL
It's either laugh or Cry at this point.
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LOLOL, these 1rn lego diss-tracks.
I bet, if lego was smart enuff, they'd release lego 1rnn' missile model sets, annnd make $Billions, they'd single handedly finance the American deficit.
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So, it seems, the big plan is, dear (hyna, you must buy m0ar soy-soy, and 737 Max8s.
/scratichyscritch, get ready for meltdown people.
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scratichyscritch
2 consummate liars making an "agreement".
I was wondering what Drumpf could bring home that he could call "a win" since Iran was not just a loss but a triumph for the opposition.
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What Tp4 can't understand is, Nothing this complicated is ever "hashed-out" by Heads of state.
They basically do the negotiation using aids for MONTHS if not years, THEN the heads of state visits, and announce formally, it's done.
Heads of state are mere actors, the actual work is done by the grunts.
NOTHING LIKE THAT has happened, the grunts haven't had the time to do a single thing, therefore, Nothing is likely-to-happen.
We're scroooooooooooooooowd.
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They's gon' strike urope within the nxt 2 monts,
Get rdy guys, stay away from landmarks / strategic factories.
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Soonnish, Rvs may be breaking the back of eroup, unless their "democracy(oligarchy)" can sort itself out.
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As dump tries to steal $10billion in tax payer money by suing the IRS
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People fail to understand money. Including the vast majority of our leadership/ Dv mp.
Money isn't real. Power is real. The government's monopoly-on-Violence is the RIGHT to print-infinite-money and thus, subjugate the plebs.
Underneath Power and its fake-representation Money, is ACCESS to OIL-ENERGY. THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE.
The entirety of mankind is Fossil Powered. Solar and Wind REQUIRE without exception in construction AND deployment the USE OF OIL, for Plastics, Glass, Aluminum, Steel, Concrete, Copper, Rare-Earths.
Everything at the base lvl is DIESEL POWERED, Mining/Transport/Smelting/Casting etc. Electrical "Fake-Newables" are fundamentally PIPELINES TO -- OIL.
OIL IS EVERYTHING. The Fake world ontop of that is what you see, Money.
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People fail to understand money.
True that. And that misunderstanding ripples out like the ripples on the surface of the pond.
But the actual pond and the rock that made the ripples are all underneath, out of sight.
It is bad enough that people are distracted by money but it is almost understandable - for a simple mind there isn't enough room for the whole of reality and money is an extremely easy concept. It is just a number.
What disturbs me is people's eagerness to chase the ridiculous and stupid distractions that the Republican party tosses out. SQUIRREL !
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Something is about to blow up.
They're selling an 85 inch TV 2900 backlit zones for $1000.
Previous TVs of this type, 75 inch 1500 zones for $900.
That's 2X the # of led zones and 28% bigger TV for only 10% more money.
It's a super good deal, but OUTSIDE OF THAT, they must be desperate for CASH NOW !!
Sumtin's up, this rate of discount is Highly-unusual.
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Something is about to blow up.
They're selling an 85 inch TV 2900 backlit zones for $1000.
Previous TVs of this type, 75 inch 1500 zones for $900.
That's 2X the # of led zones and 28% bigger TV for only 10% more money.
It's a super good deal, but OUTSIDE OF THAT, they must be desperate for CASH NOW !!
Sumtin's up, this rate of discount is Highly-unusual.
China gearing up to invade Taiwan
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How bad is the market Tp?
The Tsunami hit "Asia" EARLY, because their fuel supply ships (already on water) were discontinued approximately 4 weeks prior to, (Western Bound) ships.
Since 2 weeks ago, if you went to the Asian-Grocer, ALL of the large 20lb sweet-rice bags out of Thailand were GONE. Just up and went,
They're no where to be found, and Tp4 called the warehouse guy, he said, yup, nothing, no lead time, it's all gone, no news.
This stuff is as "CORE" a material as "Flour is".
and, it just UP AND WENT.
The last WESTern bound fuel ships ended last 2 weeks. We got 1.5-2 months of disrupted-but-acceptable-Normalcy left.
After that, Tp4, Pro-Logistix says, dooooooooooooooooooooooooooomm.
It's about 5-10x the disruption that Covid was.
The market may not sell-off, 401k NUMERICALLY is probably safe, because if the big hedges don't move, it can't tank too much.
THAT SAID, the NUMERAL is completely DISCONNECTED from REALITY, Meaning STAGFLATION is already a CERTAINTY. Extreme unemployment, extreme Inflation.
For example, you look at the futures for oil, it's $95-110 per barrel, if you wanted to actually BUY a barrel of physical oil, it's $140-250 per barrel. @ $200, basically nothing you produce with that barrel will be profitable, especially if you add volatility in chain risks.
The economic outlook is basically Ditch-Digging for men, and Prostitution for women. AND, At least Doubly so for Europe.
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Sigh..
If something as simple as Irnnto can STRANGLE the entirety of the MiddlEase oil, then the largest cache of 'Proven exploitable oil" on EARTH = "Stranded-Assets"
That is to say the $DOLLAR is a stranded asset.
Even excluding the climate-problem where there's an ecological boundary for emissions, we've already lost the plot through State Mismanagement.
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Econmi's bad, Tp4 switched to store brand sodaz. Their sprite tastes almost identical to windex.
Fortunately, Tp4 realllly likes the windex smell.
Really, sprite always tasted like windex, but it was missing that last ringing note.
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That Dvmp $250 bill.
The move is actually genius, in JhyyyNa, if you call someone 250 = Moron/Imbecile/Mediocre.
With this 1 move, Literally Every person in JhyyyNa will want to collect this $250 bill, You're talking raising 250* 1 Billion adults, that's 250 Billion dollars.
Make the Jhyyyneese PAY !! :eek:
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If "mrurui(kan style" capitalism is to survive, we have to destroy ur00p.
Their consumer base is more/less the same. But given that there is rapidly diminishing ENERGY to Produce + Transport All Things, if we are to CONSUME as before, someone has to Consume much less, or not at all.
-- is probably what's being discussed in the board rooms.
Understand that DURING the cold war, the nuclear umbrella did not actually COVER Europe.
The missiles and bombing runs extended as far as Germany as a buffer zone, that being, Germany was the Umbrella, if it came to Nv(clrr war, Ur000p was going to eat the soviet Nvks, to KEEEEP MuririKa SAFE.
If the average ur00pean read a book sometime, they'd know this. The classic plan WAS indeed to sacrifice ur00p militarily.
But recent state of events, THEY may have to sacrifice ur00p economically. >seems like it's already in the wurks no??<
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Look, lots of good research saying, young people failing in schools, etc etc.
OK, but the question then is, do we need young people to think.
If 'mrurika, loses dollar dominance, it loses oil dominance, it LOSES the ability to IMPORT labor, both in terms of service AND the material goods.
Well, at this point, what we need is Labor, ditch digging, coal miners, very dirty, very hard, very crippled in your 50-60s, silly people who can withstand mindless work, because, turns out we can't afford robots, they're actually very expensive and we can't produce them.
The options are, ensure the next generation is as dumb as possible, or invade mexico.
So you see, the SYSTEM is the problem, you may think this whole decision process is unethical, but actually, it's NECESSARY, if we define the economy with Capitalism (imperialism).
If you want to go socialism, the system might survive, but this is all still going down the tubes, as socialism only defines the economy slightly better FOR HUMANS. Even if we successfully invade South-Mruruika, this will only buy time, as it does not alleviate all the other stressors from limited-energy, and very limited remaining climate load.
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Red Sea seams to be happening.
R yoo Rdy Ur00p ?
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You no what's hilarious, there are now analysts talking about the US essentially balkanizing "Itself".
Hahahahahahhaha.. It's only funny, because it's entirely plausible. :D
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Guys, we might not have an economy left by Friday.
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Ok, so it seeeeeems, that the military solution is basically totally collapsed now that 1rnto may indeed have decided to build The Weapon, which they didn't want to before.
But basically, the last thing we can do is leave, if we stay, it's just chasing bad money with good.
So.... guess we're going to stay, and prepare for hyper inflation?
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chasing bad money with good.
How lucky we are to have a very stable genius at the helm.
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chasing bad money with good.
How lucky we are to have a very stable genius at the helm.
He really is the chosen 1, he's saving the world by destroying the western economy.
You couldn't achieve this with the highest financial jurisprudence. The greatest climate activist of all of Human History.
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Tp4 goes to the outside yea?
The outside people neither appreciate nor understand what's about to happen to them.
Latest Kpler projections, only 45% output will be operational in hormuz in the "Impossible" situation that the war ends tomorrow.
AFTER THAT, oil will stay at $100+ INDEFINITELY. (Current realworld price for PHYSICAL barrels of oil is $150-175) This is different from the futures market, that number is the future, which is discounted, it's not real oil.
Who will pay for repairs in the Gulf States, who will come up with the money, who would INSURE reconstruction.
The FIRST replacement boat won't hit the water for 2-3 months after wars end, IF it even ends.
The 'Muririikan oil reserve, which we've been SELLING on the open market to keep prices down, runs dry END OF JULY.
In all likelihood, geo-strategically Hormuz will never recover to 100%.
Without Petr0D0llr recycling, 'Muririrkan stonks and MORE IMPORTANTLY, BONDZ, Go Pooooooof.
The entirety of Europe is already hitting the poor house, without oil, it might as well be the Stone Ages.
Without CHEAP energy access, they will DE-INDUSTRIALIZE, as not a single one of their industry is cost competitive.
They're hell bent on atkn' Rvssss 1a. OK.... sure, Rvsss just said, no more gas for Europe. , Rvsss 1a also lining up Oresniks to TEST the Article5 resolve.
Ur00p were getting Hormuz gas before, alot of that output Capacity has been blown up too, and repairs are in the 3-5 year ball park.
Imagine having to close a factory for 3-5 years. You think the owners can handle ANY interest payments with 0 revenue for 3-5 years?
In principle, yea, everyone can go on vacation, as they eat at the breadline everyday and then back to their Tents at night. This could be fun, you don't know, alot less showering, one would imagine.
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Full war has resumed,
It would seem that dmp did not have any realistic negotiations going on, despite all the apparent lying about it in the last few days, it was yet another stupid attempt at sucker-punch.
What "the wurl" is looking for at this point, is SOME - Turning point.
Annnnnd, it would seem that we're NO WHERE CLOSE to it.
Basically, at this point, ECONOMIC """ DEPRESSION """ has been locked in.
There is no political off ramp, no military off ramp, NO ECONOMIC off ramp.
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A sense of what's here and what's to come.. !!
Tragic America, by Theodore Dreiser (famous author of the fiction, An American Tragedy)
synopsis::: Non-fiction critique on the social-system in the Era of the Great Depression
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Tp4's seeing in all likelihood, world GDP 1.5-3% drop 2027.
No one has ever seen a post-growth world.
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There is no deal. MOUs are not deals, anything like this between "Whole Countries" require "Treaties" that are ratified by the Senate w/ 2/3 majority.
Don't believe the hype. All that's happening is they're trying to quiet the markets to STEAL what's left of public funds, 401ks etc, to pay for their failing STONKS bubble.
They're desperate to steal this money because it's readily obvious, that when you pull THIS MUCH ENERGY out of the economy, ontop of losing Geo-political control over the SOURCE of that energy, it means the total collapse of primacy and borrowing.
Borrowing is all that 'mruruika had, Debt was our only real export.
The tech bubble is wholly DEPENDENT on energy imports. Not only have we LOST the excess energy to fuel that bubble, we've also lost the CASH Injection (Petrodollar recycling) to FINANCE it.
ENJORY Camping / AKA homelessness.
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What may come to pass.
So, If the Murikuzns does a full TahyK0, leaves the mijd-ease, then the dollar system collapses, the new world will be denominated in RMB.
That is probably not going to happen, regardless of which administration, racist or otherwise, they probably won't allow it.
What does that mean.. Wellllll..... you may think the economics FORCE them to pull a tay(ko, But geo-politically, they will probably become full pirates.
So, the double blockade, if 1rnt is not allowing oil, then the US blokad will ALSO be there indefinitely,
But this costs FUEL, and enormous amounts resources, WHO will bear the burden.
The US is probably looking at ur000p thinking, ur000p will not only pay for this war, numbers side of things, but ALSO supply their children (3-5 million soldiers) for the Front lines, most will again die on the beach. This will be continuous, until the Nv(lr weapons tip, where we all probably die.
That's the only possible outcome if decision making is LEFT to the Oligarchs of each country.
If you believe the people will have a say about it, Maybe, we could have a short civil war, if the people come out on top, the 'murikam economy collapses totally, and from total bankruptcy, we balkanize and rebuild from scratch, < the fall of the american union >.
This is the less violent option of the 2.
Everything will miraculously be Fine scenario, well, Unfortunately this is unlikely, because from both end of this, TO THE PEOPLE IN CHARGE, it is Existential.
Tp4 recommends either Moving to your NEAREST nv(lar weapons Big-Country, like Rvss, US, (haiNa.
ur00p is marked for Death by 'Murika, it will be sacrificed.
Our prevailing world structure. (loud noise warning)
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Asssssuming the MOU holds.
Tp4 would say, 60/40, favoring holds.
The economic collapse, on the surface, the bailout is already happening in full swing right now given the stock pumps.
But long run, we've destroyed roughly 15% of world energy production, they were literally blown up, it's done. This effect will be far excess of 15%.
> 15% physical reduction (already locked, it's gone)
> 20-25% mechanical production "scaling loss" a $1500 pc vs a $1200 pc, Night and day difference in performance.
> Any conceivable repairs to oil/gas are 5+ years out. Do we think (the economy) can wait that long..
> 0% Confidence for middle-ezse investment, you might build a refinery in UAE last year, but WOULD YOU EVER AGAIN, now that you see what can happen in the region, when refineries are 20-30 year investments, and might not turn a profit until Year 15.
> 0% Confidence in safety, if you were an Oil/Gas engineer, would you take your family and move there? you might a year ago, enjoy the brothels/drugs, but today, when NE moment now, bombs could be flying, and they hosed the airport, and people couldn't leave, with NO running water in the middle of a desert?
> Latest Conflict has proven, 'Murikn military technology is obsolete, they offer 0 protection over the most <volatile> asset on the planet. = STRANDED ASSETS.
> Stonks are unreliable, because we're in an identical DotCom Dark Fiber situation. Lots of "money" upfront, with NO-realistic-profit-prospective.
> Datacenters CONTRACTED have stalled and / or canceled
>> They run on energy we don't have, can't build.
>> (haiyNa sells the "same tokens." at 1/4 to 1/6th the price, because of their Industrial Scale.
>> Scale is Everything.
> Locking out (haiyNa from buying western Semiconductor tooling
>> Sounds good right?
>> Stop their AI..
>> Except we forget, technology comes about by way of BRAIN POWER, there's nothing special about it. It's a commodity relative to any large population of humans.
>> East Asians in high tech 'Muririka companies form 15-30% of the Brain-Trust.
>> How come, Genetic Cognitive Superiority + Cultural affinity for education.
>> Official US Doctrine, we're GOING TO WAR with (hyNNA... Look it up, Land and Sea Battle.
>> Let's say you go to war with (hyNA, Kewl kewl kewl.
>>>> Every1 now h8s the yellow people, kewl kewl
>>>> Yellow people go home
>>>> What population can come in and replace these PHDs / Double PHDs, meatbags which took 30 years to train.
>>>> You think the yellow people will just stay around, when you're killing all the yellow people overseas?
>>>> You're going to offer all the koreans and japanese yellow people special Yellow people arm bands so they don't get accidentally racisted ? Hahahahha
>> Historical certainty, Every time US has refused (hyna a technology,
>> (haiNa built it themselves.
>>> Mechanically, we either accept inter-dependence, or we accept defeat by overwhelmingly superior MASS
>>> SCALING is everything, output scales exponentially.
>> Brain power comparison. Engineering graduates.
[attachimg=1]
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Future Production Ecnomy.
Some problems.
The China (Machine) is already built, AND, It's hooked up to Rv55n' Nergy.
Our Western (Machine) is not yet built, AND, we Just blew up a huge chunk of its energy pipelines/ contracts / political handshakes.
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NE1 do anything to prepare for economic depression?
Seems pretty much 99% locked.
US refiners have already instigated the ask to Washn'ton, on fuel types.
It's either jet-fuel, OR diesel, but not both, there isn't enough for both.
Translation::: This is going to be beyond bare-shelves, Total Catastrophe (Stagflation).
Tp4 has increased the Garden by 100%. Water's expensive, but cheaper than Store veg.
2 Years stock on RICE.
Thinking about getting a big battery and some panels.
Looked at Roof-Solar, Not a huge fan because they all bolt through, and leaks are an inevitability over time, huge pain to fix. Just got whole new roof last summer.
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Also looking into a "serious" xercise routine.
Since, walking / running are going to be extremely "common" in a world without affordable transportation.
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People don't get it.
The primary currency of "the World." is not Dollars, it's OIL.
We held the middle ease Hostage, because all of their money MUST go through our banking system. That OIL money MUST return into our capital markets.
We then borrow against that "incoming" "recycling", Allowing, us to PRINT, which amounts to a disproportionate influx of "Resources/Buys" INTO the American ground base.
NOW, That WHOLE THINGAMaboob, is blown up.
We can NO LONGER enforce this system.. Ontop of the fact, that "Our Vassals" (the human rulers in the mid-ease) are "Extremely Unpopular.", These were merely the mud-hut people the British installed when they left and handed the keys to the 'Murikns
For example, Bahrain (royals), they straight up left, poof, if they went back, they would be killed.
That is to say, that whole region may enter Civil war. and IN CIVIL WAR, No one controls anything, that unpredictability makes the coordinated investment REQUIRED to EXTRACT OIL and SELL OIL, virtually impossible.
This is WHY.... KPLER... project that the Mid-Ease may only achieve 45% of Pre-War output FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. Representing a 15% immediate contraction of World Energy, and as you know the association between GDP and Energy is .95-.99.
Tp4 doesn't necessarily agree with this, if they side with the Eastrn security architecture, in principle, the Eurasian powers DO have the economic and industrial capacity to restore Extraction rates, BUHHHhhhhh, this makes no difference on OUR end, WE LOSE.
So, the power on the "Muriknu' side has to decide, our options are some combination of, Stagflation, World Conflagration, Deep Economic Depression. The only other option is to Continue the war, which will lead to Hyper-Inflation in the West.
At this point in time, the only thing that looks certain for America, is Insolvency, should there be a CALL- exercised on part of "The rest of the world".
Assuming they don't do that, basically our wiener falls off anyway.
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Ok, so you got alot of these cycles saying, HEY xxxx business will improve, xxxx business will get worse.
EconomiP4 says::
It's all going to be bad.
WHY, anytime you have a recession/contraction/depression/all the sions, DISCRETIONARY SPENDING FALLS.
What is the difference between 2026 and 1973.
WELLL, a MUCH LARGER proportion of capital and markets ARE Discretionary.
This is the case because we've long-since maxed out the Necessities. So all growth sectors/perceived wants are in discretionary.
Nintendo/GPUs/AI/eLeCtriK cars.
<NONE OF WHICH> are <NECESSARY>
<ALL of WHich> in <A BUBBLE>
The best any sector can do is HANG ON. Outside of protected sectors such as agriculture/energy/medicine/transport, everything else will go to pewps.
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We're doomed to fail, because people are idiots, and OIL is mis-priced.
Most modern 1st wurlders have not done any physical labor relevant to their survival.
For example, Digging a hole.
Get yourself a PickAxe and Shovel. Try digging a hole just 2 feet deep. It is REALLY exhausting, especially if you've hit some gravel.
Pros can do it decently fast, but the average person will probably take 10-30 minutes. Then there's clean up, moving plants, filling it, watering.
ALL THAT to plant ONE THING.
People don't appreciate what ENERGY does.
The energy in a SINGLE-Barrel of oil translated into HUMAN-mechanical-energy equivalent is 5-YEARS of physical labor.
This substance is actually "A GOOD DEAL" at virtually ANY PRICE.
But it's Priced at $60-100, most recently $150-200.
Even at this very elevated stage, pushing the economic system into near collapse, IT HAS collapsed in many places in Asia,,, Even at this price of $200, HUMANITY still under-appreciate its true value, and CONTINUE TO WASTE.
OIL does not come back, the next tranch in Energy is not-guaranteed-possible.
SOLAR / WIND do not replace what OIL does, neither its Portability, Easy Storage, Liquid at room temp, Does not require pressure vessels, nor its Importance in FEED STOCKS for other materals such as plastic.
Electricity can not replace oil. Not in the slightest in the vast majority of Industries.
Between then and there, is an Infinite set of distractions.
The slums of India, is the best case outcome for the majority of our future timeline.
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Tp4, you're on and on about how the wurl's gon' bad.
But how has this affected you personally? How bad IS the e( onomi?
-- Back in the day, The Histories.
Tp4 used to cook 2 packs of ramen. Just 2 whole packs, threw out the extra set of seasoning, because who cares.
crisys 1, 2 packs of good-ramen, save 1 set of seasoning for another day, very frugal very reasonable, less waste.
crisys 2, 1 pack of good-ramen, 1 pack of cheapo-noodz
crisys 3, 1 pack of good ramen + mix with the day's Rice, no more secondary noodz pack.
Today, 1 pack of cheapo-noodz + mixed with the day's Rice. Tp4 not even buying the Shin-Rmen, DestituteP4 Walks quickly past the aisle @ costco.
In a few years, probably just porridge + salted cucumbers.
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Dear Tp4,
You're over-reacting, Plz, Trust Capitalism, Trust that the Market will ****** certain actions, they're crazy but NOT that-Crazy.
O-Rly. Tp4 works frr Rich people, day in day out, You know how the pharoahs burried their survents alive? That's how "Rich people" relate to the Commoners.
They would not hesitate to throw your life at preserving their status. A War they're Losing? Throw more bodies at it.
Look no further than the 90Billion worth of shorts on the oil futures right now. The $60 Artificially low price, but when you go to actually buy physical oil, oh, nope not in stock, you want oil it's $150-200. But hey look the OIL is back where it is.
They're gambling with the financial solvency of the UNited States people, from their perspective, you're nothing, and they don't care to depreciate your money and your labor, which is the Whole point of quantitative easing.
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You can't use capitalism, to save the world from problems caused BY CAPITALISM.
Something's gotta give, or that's the hill you all die on.
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Analogies.
Let's say USA is the right arm. Iran is like the knee-cap
Apparently the Arm is very very displeased with the knee-cap.
The Arm spends money, gets a knife, and starts stabbing the knee cap.
You get about 1 stabby stab in, and the whole body writhes in pain.
OH.. I SEE, says the Arm, the knee-cap is an essential component attached to the whole.
That's where we are, unfortunately, the Arm spent all that money on buying a knife, and it's looking for other body parts to stab. BECAUSE, Capitalism and Knife-collections are very important.
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Calling it, tvkr calrs0n is the real krasn0v.
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In Seattle they tore down the huge homeless encampment in '19 that had programs for needle exchanges, health care, food banks, addiction specialists. Granted, it was a total eyesore. Literally the first thing you see driving into d/t Seattle, and half the time it was on fire. But now we've got fent zombies just wandering the streets in broad daylight. Bent over at 90° moaning against a wall, or ****ting in the street in view of tourists and children. I feel like it is WAY worse now, and people just walk by, not even commenting. Normalizing this. It is insane.
On the flip side, I've read articles that are deadass serious with working professionals claiming they are making $300K USD A YEAR and somehow it is apparently not enough to get by.
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You live and a bubble, and everything you know is fake.
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Good bye e(onom1..
/waves
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the cease fire will never work unless Drumpf keeps Netanyahu on a very short leash.
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This has nothing to do with netnyootzoo.
People get confused who works for whom. They're the happy scapegoat. That was the deal.
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To keep numbers easy to understand.
The whole world is 100million barrel of oil (per day),
~30% of oil from the whole world is convertible to diesel, 7% into jet fuel. They draw on the same middle distillate. We produce 30m diesel 7m jet.
Hormuz transits 25 million barrels of oil, 50-60% is middle-distillate, UNIQUELY suitable for diesel. Unlike 'Murikan sweet crude which yields high for plastics and gasoline, poorly for diesel.
This is also why america is not energy independent, it has to imports lots and lots of crude oil to MAKE DIESEL.
There is no substitution, oils are not all the same. Refinery configurations also CAN NOT CHANGE, you're talking YEARS to a Decade of modification.
12.5m hormuz oil made into diesel+jet
12.5m out of 37m is 33.8%.
Hormuz is responsible for 33.8% of the world's diesel+jet.
After our "murika super Epi ( smart foreign policy plan"
A virtually impossible mid-east Miracle recovery tops out at 45% for the next decade->forseeable future. (Kpler study)
So, you got .55*12.5 = 6.875m lost barrel, 6.875/37 = 18.59% barrel of the world's diesel+jet is GONE,
so 18.59% contraction in world diesel+jet supply is the IMPOSSIBLE BEST CASE.
You throw in inefficiencies, Delays, restarts, forever-wars, politics politics politics.
You're looking at something like 20-25% of diesel supply loss.
This is a big deal. as DIESEL has an extremely Outsized Impact on the Economy and supply chain..
You take the impact of a "butterfly effect" event, turn that into a sledge hammer the size of 20million barrels of oil, AND ask, WAHT is the Economi, going to LOOK LIKE?
E(onoP4 remarks/ rough surfaces, ahead.
Ep4 used low estimates of the oil transit. The real impact is probably EVEN Higher.
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Also,
KEEP IN MIND...
That remaining diesel is NOT evenly distributed. Eur0op has almost None.
The US has -Some- because we bully Canada for 75% of our domestic use.
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I cannot in any way understand this decision. I don't understand...
https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/xbox-ceo-asha-sharma-named-as-adviser-to-us-federal-reserve-on-jobs-and-productivity/ (https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/xbox-ceo-asha-sharma-named-as-adviser-to-us-federal-reserve-on-jobs-and-productivity/)
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understand this decision.
How far you make it in DC today depends on your skill at stroking the ego of the orange monster.
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The western e(onom1 is actually very very simple.
Colonialism is the core of what modern capitalism is.
Produce very little yourself, but if you have extractive colony you can pull resources and labor from, English parasite off India, Capitalism works.
The majority of what made western economies wealthy, post ww2, had been its ability to simply BORROW.
It's able to do this by issuing Debt, (a piece of Paper).
But because US inherited total dominion of the former European colonies, WE became the Parasite King.
Our inheritance of the Mid-east, we control the entirety of oil wealth, all of the oil sold has to be dollars and all the dollars MUST go through Western banking. They had no true sovereignty under UK/Europe, they had no sovereignty under US.
Because the Epst3e3ez class decided they'd rather have private-corporations financialize the entirety of the nation, RATHER than a strong central state, The US became divided into various fiefdoms.
This is the OPPOSITE of efficiency, but it WORKED because we could print, and simply BUY all the "Stuffs."
Ultimately, our monetary system became US prints monopoly money, Europe buys that monopoly money with their own monopoly money, Everyone else buys monopoly money with a "small portion of their own for settlement" but mostly with REAL GOODS.
As technology is transferred and re-invented naturally, in states of excess energy, it simply democratizes itself. There are choke-points on certain natural resources, but there is no true choke-point on technology.
We've reached a point where the rest of the world has decided, they don't need to buy our monopoly money anymore.
NOW we're panicked, because we don't know how to do anything for ourselves, as that wouldn't be colonialism. The only way our system could continue is if we enslaved south america and canada.
There is no other way to maintain the system as is.
Capitalism is supppppose to evolve into Socialism. If it does not, it will Stall + Destroy itself by adding successive barriers to development through rent-seeking.
They've decided at least for now, we MUST continue the only thing we've been doing for the last 80 years, Rent-Seeking.
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Ur0 oop. is done!
Sell everything.. !!
1rn declred, if they are atkd, WHICH is likely in the coming week, they will fully close Bab-el-Mandeb strait (Suez canal), AND withdraw from NPT.
That water way is another 10% of global Energy shipping, a full 30% of all container traffic. So assuming any ships even "get out" of the GCC, they'd incur 10-30 % extra time/ shipping cost sailing around africa.
You'd be lighting up the problem candle on both ends. You have ALOT LESS energy available AND you have to spend MORE Energy in logistics.
Meanwhile, in Grimini, Let's go 5th reiggch, we're gonna defeat rvssa..
In grandstrategi, it's almost like, well, we'll fight to the last uroopean just like we fought to the last vkr1nian.
Literally, that's what they did, vkr1n1n is already past breaking point, their population is so diminished, the country is no longer viable, it has no industrial/ labor / military strength to sustain any realistic sovereignty. Mechanically, you can consider the nation dissolved..
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@ costco today. looks at the baggles, sigh... can't afford them this week. looks at the pita pokets, nope, price went up on that too.
Went to walmart to get some sodaz, even store brand soda is 20cents more than last week.
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If they started sailing the Oil, a MONTH ago, they'd be TOO LATE.
We're out, it's flat as that.
AND THERE'S No more coming. Doesn't look like it.
Not for 6 month to 2 years.
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the dm,{vp imposes 20% 'murika tax on hormuz oil ? LOLOLOL whatt??
This literally makes no sense, the oil doesn't have that much margin.
No country could pay this, Right now, the REAL Out the door price for a refinery BUYING OIL is $110 to $200 per barrel.
If you add 20%, that's $132, to $240
Literally, no one Would or COULD pay this.
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Hahahahahahaha...
We're looking at 15-20% maximum hormuz recovery at this point.
Leave ur00p NOW !!
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Young people who believe, obrrrmrr, was a great president.
Under obrrmr, we took interest rate allllll the way down on top of ENORMOUS quantitative easing (Print money), liquidity up
This led to anyone with big-money to BORROW, like crazy.
WHERE did all this money end up, well, in 'murika, at this point in our history, no one wants to do anything HARD, because most of those things are very uncertain and they take a LONG time to profit, things like MINES, Factories, Refineries, etc, job-creators, we had NO new jobs, no industrial growth...
SO, all that money ended up in Financial Capitalism, which Bid-Up Assets, like equities, land, HOUSES.
All the big firms buying up HUGE tracks of land and residential, is a DIRECT result of obrmmrmrm's 2 terms.
Young people who are impoverished and can't afford their home, have to directly thank him. AND YET, the media paints a different picture, omg, dvmp is soooo bad, obbrrmrr so Guuuud'' omg, he's black, omg, diversity.
Obrrmrr, took away any hope they had for owning a home.
He also laucnhed the largest assas55ination campaign ever in the mid east, gainst' Seat1_reeia.
He gave in "assistance", basically money, More than any president in history, to 1s reeeeee Lelt.
Obrrrmrrr, Screwed young people 10x as badly as bush, easily equivalent of duvpm
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Red Sea, aka <that Other-h0rmvz>
WE're like 95% trigger likelihood that it will be closed soon.
Brace urseff ur00p. Xpensive everything ahead.
BUY 9070xt NOW !!
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The current argument works like this,
Had they NOT manipulated the speculative Oil market, the consumption would've tapered rapidly from escalating prices. That would've lead to overall - CONSERVATION of what little-is-left of SUPPLY.
BECAUSE they've chosen instead to feed the botnet and pump $ into bank accounts instead, REAL_OIL_CONSUMPTION remained excessively HIGH.
That is to say, we've BLED OUT before people even knew they were dying.
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*Courts rule previous tariffs were illegal and unfair and orders repayment after costing tax payers billions to repay huge companies
*Immediately orders a new round of illegal tariffs that will cost the tax payers billions... AGAIN}
He is such a corrupt stupid clown. He needs to be stopped.
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Tariffs are irrelevant.
The oil is all that matters @ any price.
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a corrupt stupid clown.
Unlike most of his shenanigans, this is not making him any money.
This is pure cruelty - for no reason other than to inflict suffering - just because he can.
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I just hope that if we ever discover alien life, humanity will finally stand together.
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Tp4 wakes up every morning, Checks if the world is still there.
What a time to be alive.
Is this better than, IS THE CORN OK?, which is how most people lived for the majority of peoples.
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Sovereign wealth funds.
The Thing ur00p and the mid-eaz needs to understand about "soverign welath funds" is, It Reallly just means , lending money, TO 'Murika, so 'Murika can keep losing wars.
But you see, all ur politicians are puppets, they send their kiz to 'murika ivy-skools, to do drugs, they themselves retire into positions in 'Murika weapons makers and think tanks.
Money isn't real, and you don't even own your own sovereign funds. On paper your future has already been sold.
When 'Murika PRINTS, the $dollar inflates, devalues, But there's a MAGNIFIED depreciating effect on funds held in old bonds.
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There are things young people have legitimate complaints of.
But the reality is, they wake up, and there's a refrigerator, and inside, ice cold watermelon.
Tp4 grew up when there were NO TOMATOES in winter. Now you can eat tomatoes, ANYTIME YOU WANT.
So, you know, PERSPECTIVE.
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You're not panicked enough.
It's been about a week, Nothing in the news talking about the pumping station and reciever station of the sa ud1, East-West p1 p,line being destoryed,
This line was responsible for 7 mil barrels.
Each mil is about 1% of global oil.
To say the averge person is clueless, is an understatement. The problem we'll soon face, is that in less than 1 month, the petrol reserve is fully caput.
A guy is dying dying dying, until one day, the door slams shut.
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So why did we dnfentd the Yen.
Welllll, because if we didn't, it'd blow up, AND They'd have to SELLL THEIR DOLLARRZZ..
We threw ur000p under the bus, just like that, THE POINT IS though, this is extremely TEMPORARY.
Jpn is in a special position also because of the SIZE of their US Bnd holdings.
The OTHER glaring omission in the media, is that Jpn is in serious DIRE STRIETSz on OIL.
ALL of their refineries are setup for Mid-ezzz crude oil, These are not readily convertible.
If they don't haz OIL, their economi stalls, THEY CAN'T MAKE STUFF, if you can't make STUFF, people can't PAY YOU.
Enter bail-outs.
Bail-outs which merely amount to more inflation/ more printing/ MORE PROBLEMS with debt and yields.
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The way our econom works mathematically today, is that it MUST GROW, or it will IMPLODE.
But if you reduce ENERGY, or in this case CUT OFF nearly 33% of all diesel, WELLLLLLL, what E(on0 mi is there left to Speak OF ??
Anything and everything is OIL. EVERYTHING.
Our economee is no longer Mathematically Relevant.
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Gold is the world's oldest Pokemon Cards.
The "Play" is not foolproof.
If a castle is under-siege, the princess will trade her pearls for bread and potatoes, this works until the king has to sell the princess for bread and potatoes.
This tells you something. A true hoard-able resource has to have REAL Utility.
What we're witnessing is simply a millennia history of assets being mis-priced.
OIL / LNG is the source of ALL BREAD.
You need haberbosch to make nitrogen fertilizer. 50-70% of the nitrogen in a human body comes from haber bosch.
YOU ARE MADE WITH OIL / LNG.
Food that is grown must then tended by TRACTORS and shipped by TRUCKS, ALL RUNNING ON DIESEL.
GOLD is no more sturdier or flimsier than ANY FIAT.
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People FAIL to understand Technology.
The further, YOU TECH UP, the more FRAGILE the systems.
How fragile is a chair, you can kick it across the room, some glue, maybe, STILL 100% Chair.
How fragile is a computer, you can LOOK at the damn thing wrong, Touch it the wrong way, a tiny spark can fry/ break it.
The (i_A's been working on global threats for decades now, IN THEIR UNPUBLISHED memoirs, they admit, 5 guyz with ak47s, can take down the entire eastern or western power grid. And we'd be sitting in the dark for MONTHS.
THAT is how fragile electrical distribution systems are. RELIANCE on SuPER-Transformerz, which are mostly produced by CHINA, and you have to order them 5 YEARS in advance.
They contain large quantities of RARE elemetns produced in suitable quantities in NO OTHER THAN CHINA.
The idea of MILITARIST IMPERIALISM is OBSOLETE.
TP4 did some cursory calculations, if Jina diverted 0.1% of their economy to producing basic atk-dronz, it is roughly 100,000,000 Units, That's 100 MILLION units.. Population of britain is 69Mil..
These things fly, have top speed of 115mph, 2,500km-4,000km range, delivers roughly the xplodz power of a 155mm m0rter shell.
Unjammable, satellite guidance, 3D positioning precision within 0.5-1.5meters.
We are incredibly lucky, that Jina isn't like us.
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Watching smart econo people arguing over the notion, is this going to be a recession or a depression.
LOLOL.. it don't matter what you call it.. You turn off the gas, EVERYTHING STOPS.
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People fail to understand that ALL MONEY SYSTEMS are Ponzi-Schemes.
It HAS to be this way, because Human-Beings are ****ty accountants.
The same reason behind why EMPIRES always fall.
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Ok... so..
We're seeing the talking heads now saying, Long Gold, Long Hard Assets.
Mmmm.. Ok...... yes and Nooo!.
Think about it this way, IN the APOCALYPSE, what are you going to do with gold, trade it? Maybe in a mini-pocalypse, where fiats scale down, and gold being the original pokemon card, is the "trusted-older-better" fiat.
But in the REALpocalypse, GOLD is useless, people would rather own SHOES, CANNED SOUP. The GOLD equivalent would be is CANNED PORK, the Diamond equivalent would be CANNED PINEAPPLES, Iron Salt batteries.
So, yes on Hard Assets, be it oil, dirt, sand, something physical.
But GOLD?
The risk here is, is it a mini-pocalypse, or a REAL-pocalypse.
Tp4 would lean harder on this-Wave being Realpocalypse. So what are the HARD assets. Where do people actually INTERACT with the "Stuff."
The billionaire investor class, interacts on the paper lvl, so he could indeed put bets on Material Inputs.
For general civilian, they interact with material itself, they wear the actual shoes they can afford.
So, Hard assets may be 9070xts for a normal person.
For the mid-investor class, Hard assets is wholly characterized by what ?
RMB, why, that's the gateway of exchange of REAL STUFF.
Grimini is going hard on Panda bonds, AND ANDDDDD, their bank has professed hard pivot on being the European corridor TO the RMB marketplace.
This doesn't mean any civilian should go out and buy RMB, you can't buy enough, and you can't take the risk, You're better off stacking Bags of rice, and 9070xts.
The normal civilian will be poor forever, and in an Energy-sparse world, it's only going to get worse.
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Investing in war-torn vkrin.
So, there are some hairbrain ideas out there, you take out a few million in loans, Go to Carkivh, buy a soviet apartment building.
Each apartment go for 20k-60k, so yea, you can indeed buy a whole building.
The issue here is, the way exlpozivs work, there's shockwave, and while a building might not look damaged, just a few broken windows, cement internals may have cracks, and the building would have to be demolished upon inspection.
The BET, here would be, now that vrkin is deplete of MEN, lots of average unimportant western skilled workers, could go in, and have a slightly elevated social status, and trade up in women.
Tp4 suspects this is somewhat of a long bet, since in reality, the dearth in, in-demand skilled men exist in every country.
There is no lack of people to dig ditches. And if you filled up the whole place with them, it's not an economic boon.
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What is PROFIT.
Profit is , you make the difference between what IT cost you, vs what you sell IT for.
So, really it's an informational difference, gatekeeping.
Functionally, it's no different than organized theft.
But theft is inaccurate, because in reality, you don't own anything, you only claim that you do.
Theft is then not wrong, as morality does not exist absent artificial structure.
Theft, like any other endeavor, is merely the actuation of the perceived path of survival, as a necessity.
Then we're left with, anything goes.
BUT Where then can you cleave good from evil.
Limited by the act of cognition, we only process some frames of reality, if the frames are large enough in scope (feed the hungry), crossing a chosen threshold, we call it Good, if the frames are unusually small in scope (steal computer mouse), we call it EVIL.
That's it, how good you can be is merely the breadth of your empathy, how evil you are is merely the narrowness of any pursuit.
All attributes, the size of stone or human personality are genetically cast across the spectrum between dualities.
And it is only via the searching does the "semblance" of "sustained reality" come about.
We're in a bind, because if we never got into binds, we'd never know which sharp rock one should not attempt to sleep on.
Optimists see that collapse MAY lead to renneissance.
Pessimists see that collapse MAY merely flame out.
The universe, Tp4 suspects does all things, for without which it would be bored.
In that Great Mess, is our silly civilization, an experiment perhaps, more likely only 1 color of the universe's set of pastels.
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I'm a year behind on rent and bills teetering on being kicked out, have just enough food to get through today and tomorrow, and bank account is overdrawn.
The American dream?
I feel like I should be more stressed about my situation, but it is so far removed from my control it feels like a slow motion car crash.
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The way the economy works is, it must grow, EXPONENTIALLY, or it collapses.
That's just in the nature of the existing accounting system.
Now that we have a global energy shortage of nearing 15-20% for what looks like indefinitely,
That system can't grow, and therefore, it MUST collapse.
So, here comes the CREATIVE_Accounting, to change the rules. But we're creating new claims for the same 20% LESS of everything.
Which is to say, INFLATION+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
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No society can survive without a sustainable working class. AI is just accelerating the elimination of lower and middle income households. They won't end up with an indentured slave class like they think.
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So, ur00p peeps may be wondering,
Why is my gobamnt so bad, why are they this delusional, and EVEN FACING OBVIOUS collapse, they chooose nonsense which would be detrimental to themselves.
Ah.... so you see, that gobamnt doesn't represent you, and YOU DON"T HAVE DEMOCRACY.
In peace time, this ALWAYS happens, the economi guys buy out everything, and profit is maximized, until everything fails.
The "alleged" leaders, are defacto/for-rell powerless, BECASUE, they use the banking system. So, whoever owns the bank, THEY run it all. What they say goes.
All wars are bankers wars. Old adage, Always true.
Xept Jahyna, they actually have banks subordinate to the State, and they accel at every damn thing, there's still corruption of course, but in every metric that matters, they've got a better system.
You can't replicate it in the US / ur00p / the west, because we don't have the ethics/ culture/ education lvl to do it.
Most 'mooririkns are functionally illiterate, is the bulk of the problem, this was deliberate, similar with most ur00pns.
Are things moving in the righ direction for ur00p, honestly no. Tp4 doesn't believe nethn short of (i _VL war would help the average citizen (long term)..
short term, if you can get a farm n sum'gunz, get a farm n sum'gunz.
You need at least 100-200 competent people on the farm for adequate defence, social structure, job distribution.
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https://whattheythink.com/articles/129229-surge-functional-illiteracy-signals-trouble-ahead-us/
We can't compete in globalization, WITH THIS. __^^^^^^^^^^^^
If the plan is to end globalization, well that's not a solution, we literally produce nothing of daily use, from coat-hangers to laptops.
THE IDEA WAS, well, we need bodies for the meat grindr, so at the very worst, we'll have people we can send into that.
MILITARY industrial money money money.
Ok, TURNS OUT, they were right about having PEOPLE to put into it, they were WRONG about what constitutes A MILITARY in the 2020s.
Now, those meat bags are useless. The INDUSTRIAL-Base is the only thing that matters, can you churn out Massive long-range-stand-off munitions, ON TIME, AT LOW COST, OF Sufficient-Quality.
The answer is no, we can't do that, we don't have everything at the front of that chain.
F35 = trash tier in modern war, they're nearly useless. The program posts a fantastic 25% readiness.
If you buy 4 planes, only 1 works at any one time. That's how **** tier it is. Which is why they still mostly roll the F16s
Soldiers = trash tier in modern war, they're nearly useless. Dronz blow them up.
So, we're in a situation, where our MOST expensive, and, LEAST expensive military expense are BOTH USELSS> !!
So if it's all down to the dronz, and you have NO MANUFACTURING BASE, what is the outcome.
Financialization is our downfall. Making money Out-Of Money, because CapEX is HARD. Apparently Too-Hard.
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Monetary interventions.
It's just kicking the can on the numbers.
If you have 5 loaves of bread in the world, and NOW, you have 4.
It doens't matter how much you print or un-print MONEY, you HAVE whatever pile of money pursuing the same FEWER loaves of bread.
THE TRICK IS, for a WHILE, a short WHILE, we were able to TAKE THAT BREAD BY FORCE.
Now we're not able to do that. WHAT's the Plan ??
This is where they want to use nv(lr wepns,
---GIVE US THE BREAD, or WE BLOW IT UP.
PROBLEM, THEY can also blwo up the bread... so if at this junction YOU SPEND MORE, on the BLOWing UP, you STILL DON"T GET THE BREAD.
That bread never belonged to us. We're not sitting on it. That's just how it works.
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Currency "hegemony."
There were many reasons for $Dollar Hegemony.
They're gone now...
We held a gun to the middle east, use our banks to sell oil, or we kill you.
Everyone needed oil, we ruled the world.
Middle eaz rises up, says, no more.
Currency is fundamentally nothing, it's the difference between VISA and Mastercard.
The material for which you are buying does not ever change, and are not speculative, the physical stock and flows.
What is speculative, is the value system we assign to real things. This system is entirely fabricated and interchangeable.
There was a financial "technology" dominance in our world, we had the computers, we had the network.
Now EVERYONE has computers and everyone has networks.
Who still wears Esprit, Bugle Boys, The Limited ? Brands come and go.
So now that the "technology" has naturally democratized, this gangster stuff simply stops working. The dollar is just another credit card company, and because of you know who, everyone hates it. The BRAND has been destroyed.
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The average rich person doesn't know what's ahead.
If 'murika ends up going into full fascist, They WILL KILL MOST Rich people, and rob their assets.
ONLY IN A TIME OF PEACE, do you have this, abundance, overproduction OF-ELITES.
WHEN IN WAR, the country Slaughters its own Elites for the Cash, to Grind the war-machine.
Then AFTER the war, they kill EVEN MORE rich people, because the gobamnt is even m0ar poor after protracted resource use.
Every time the Emperor wins a war, what does he do, He starts killing off former allies/generals etc.
RICH people THINK they're supporting the emperor, when in fact, They're walking themselves into the slaughter house.
Unfortunately, at the end of each Empire, most "elites/ the rich" don't read, and has forgotten the histories.
That's where we are.
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Tp4, what does the future look like.
Well,,, it's not all bad.... Basically all the old fotos you see floating around.
Obesity will solve itself, the health care industry will collapse. People will have to leave cities and go back to rural farming.
Alot more digging involved.
Women will probably have fewer rights, even if on paper they do, the energy system simply won't support the "freedom to act on that liberty".
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/headscritches.
They' is ssaying,, there's a deal that's agreed upon, because the US is about to crash the hell out of solvency.
We'll see... But, will be pleasantly surprised, however incredibly unlikely..
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SO, the tresery comes out and says, who ever is helping ir nt, we're going to do super DUPER sanctions now, and you will leave the d0llr system.
Whaaaaat?? That's the exact thing we're trying to avoid.... people- LEAVING,
If the yield is climbing, that's LITERALLY PEOPLE LEAVING the dolrr system...
We're scr000d.
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That's the exact thing we're trying to avoid.... people- LEAVING,
Drumpf is incapable of being anything but an angry, mean-spirited, toddler.
He has spent a lifetime getting his way by inflicting pain on everyone except himself, and can't comprehend why it is not working this time.
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Inflation for you, inflation for you, inflation for everybody....!!
That said, this is good for the planet, so, assume we don't kill ourselves in this, it's actually kind of in the right direction, Climate wise.
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So, bunch o' these gcc places are working/requesting LINES OF CREDIT.
What does this Demonstrate.
Something E(on0P4 has been expoutn' for a long time. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS SAVINGS.
They have so much "#Money" in the bank, that if spent, they could DO NOTHING and live on the interest forever.
BUHhhh, helloow, turns out you can't. What's happening? Thought they were billionaires.
Ah HA, #1, money in the bank, isn't really yours, #2, money isn't real, #3 you can't eat money, you can't wear money, you can't do anything with money itself.
The reality is you can only use Money to appropriate the AMOUNT OF ENERGY you're allowed to expend.
But THIS SYSTEM is LEVERAGED, meaning, there is at least 100-1000x the amount of claims outstanding on the ACTUAL stockpile, future stock of available (economically extract-ible) Energy.
Without or Severely-Constrained access "IN" Nergy, suddenly CREDITS don't work, credits DO NOTHING on their own.
I can't sell you what isn't there for #ANY# amount of money.
Humanity has never made a dime, we've always been BURNING, first wood, then Fossils.
Humanity, has only ever SPENT, we've never at any point in history SAVED ANYTHING.
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A woman got her arm bitten off by a shark and made $400K on GoFundMe
I'm about to just jump into the ocean to try my luck.
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Phillipines getting flak for the poverty stricken people eating pagpag, "recycled refried jolibee chicken thrown away at the restaurant". (Dealers) collect the trash bins at closing, and wash + reprocess.
Bro, we got people eating out of the dumpster ALL OVER the US, everywhereee.
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This whole AI maboober that we're betting our LAST PENNY on.
AI is not about the hardware, it's the TALENT to Develop AND Utilize AI.
China labs, on average have 50x the brain-power by sheer mass and STEM-GRADUATION RATE.
Their AI science is already significantly more advanced, AND their open-model allows rapid proliferation and co-development.
The other thing that's been discounted is, we're 20 years behind on Eletrical infrastructure, This is not something you can throw money at, it takes MASSIVE amounts of planning and time. It's simply not possible to catch up.
You can't build infrastructure and have it be SINGULAR, feeding 1 system, you need a tapestry of technology AROUND that system, so you can efficiently amortize the cost when the market fluctuates.
We're building 500 nvidia carts, but we've raised exactly 1 horse to pull it.
If we continue with the idea of building a moat, and dividing the world into corporations that understand PROFIT and nothing else.
>>-- The outside DEMOCRATIZED, SOCIALIST Science-systems, will DESTROY US.
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we're 20 40 years behind on Eletrical all of our infrastructure,
Thanks, Reagan
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It's not reagan, it's capitalism in general.
It would've went this way regardless of who was president.
Biden Obama could easily contend for the 2 worst presidents ever.
Biden nearly put us in nu(lr war. Rvss made an unambiguous response saying they will nvk washington if certain missile capabilities were extended u know where. That eventually got the dementia ridden ****den to stand down.
Obrrmrr gave more militaryhardware (net $$) to you know who issssrr than ANY OTHER PRESIDENT.
And now dump is doing it too.
Turtles ALL THE WAY DOWN. The ROT, is total.
And now they're tricking people with this demo socialist bs.
Take for example, Mamdani, public loves him right? Right?, Social Media... !!
But u know what, at every turn, regarding Nypd, he deferrs to his chief of police, who is, an ARDENT z10n eastii.
They give people stuff that don't matter, manhole covers, pot holes, film it, He's great, oh wow, manholes, you seeing this.
EVERYTHING that MATTERS, it's the same old, same ol'.
People are stupid, and easily tricked. The entirety of the leadership is bad.
No matter who you vote for, the RESULT is the same.
Tp4 can't recommend civil war, but the situation won't change for anything less.
The point is, even civil war, it's irrelevant, you're too chickenpoo to do it. .
WAHT IS RELEVANT, is you need to PREPARE for extreme suffering/poverty.
The Indian Slums await. That's where we're headed.
Heck the main problem is, you're all functionally illiterate, might as well live in slums.
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The irony is , if at this point in time, we don't suppor dump, the future will be even more bleak.
The entirety of the empire is about to unravel.. a mad stoopid king is better than no -king, read your history.
The choice right now really, is, instantaneous modesty (poverty) vs ~10 more years of duck empire.
1 choice gives you some breathing room to pick up and run, the other, well, if you're ok with alot of digging and potatoes.
And before you choose the digging, please go out and dig a hole just 2 feet deep, it's harder than you think, and there will be thousands of that.
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one may be wondering, Tp4, you always say everything stays the same, it's always bad, what proooof do you have .
Well, if you're not content with what's happening in front of your very eyes as proof.
Simply consider, the Car.
The CAR is a system, it can only run on gasoline, we can only use gasoline, it is what it is, not a choice.
You can't change the car very much, because it's complex, and modification takes significant time.
Now magnify the car to something MUCH bigger, the time it takes to change a GIANT car is even longer.
So, in Our life span, it's pretty much going to be the same gasoline, the same political/socio-economic structure. the Same horrible leadership feed-stock going in, and horrible decisions coming out.
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People still don't understand money.
They just don't get it.
Saudi Arabia, and many other GCC are getting credit swap lines, loans basically.
WHYyyyy, aren't they rich? don't they have MONEY in the "BANK?"
LOL...
What about NORWAY's sovereign wealth fund !!
There's no such thing as money.
There is only OIL.
and Once you BURN IT, it doesn't come back for Millions of years, IF EVER actually.
Nothing of modernity works without OIL/Fossil fuels.
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Tp4 projects, Deezeell might hit $8-9/gallon, $2.38/liter
Buy everything NOW, it won't get cheaper, until the economi blows up. Whereby, well, you won't buy anything at all.
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When vkrin went through its inflation crisis,
A family may have had enough currency to buy a house and some cars.
After the crisis, that money was enough to buy a month worth of groceries.
THE POINT IS, When everyone went to "Press" the sell button, IT DIDN'T WORK.
The bank locked, allocated, and you're left with what you're left with.
Remember guys, MONEY IS NOT REAL. You've stored NOTHING but your fat-ass and that 1 sac of moldy potatoes.
Even your HOUSE, you DO NOT OWN, because it's not defensible, and you must pay property tax.
The "Sovereign Wealth" section isn't any better, All majors are shedding exposure right now.
But it's fundamentally irrelevant as simply, there is LESS STUFF that you could buy (with any-amount of money).
Groceries have gone up easily 100-200% already. You tell me what the real inflation is.
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AI productivity is a pipe dream.
ROBOTS DO EVERYTHING. with unlimited energy, sure.
But a ROBOT is highly power inefficient.
Human beings do all that they do on 40watts / hr. A modern playstation is 200-300watts.
EVERYTHING our economy "purports" to do, comes at a power budget. It can not escape physics.
The most irrational aspect is the PRICE of OIL. If a barrel of oil is worth 5 years of HUMAN physical Labor, WHY IS IT $60, or $100, or $200, or $10,000.
Why is it not $1,000,000. IN FACT, that SHOULD BE the price of oil.
So what is happening is, the allocation structure at the top, decides simply to maximize BURN RATE.
The Money structure in GDP, is that rate.
It's not a rate of Wealth Generation or Wealth Storage. GDP is the BURN RATE of FUEL.
This coupled with the fact that there IS NO GREEN ENERGY, all the machinery in solar/wind are simply conduits made from AND to FOSSIL FUELS, Coal, Oil, Gas, Coal, Oil, Gas.
Nature cracked the code, it is beyond anything else, the most POWER EFFICIENT, the natural systems does all that it does @ EXTREMELY low wattage, ALMOST no waste heat.
How much waste heat does a ROBOT produce, or an electric car, electric bus, electric tooth brush.
This is not to be against mechanization, But one must understand the LIMITS of What It Can Do, and the VERY FINITE Budget of energy available in the Time-Span of Civilization.
Nature can operate in Geological-Time, Human Civilization CAN NOT.
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If EROI is going down across all energy platforms, What in fact are they smoking, when they say, "We're going to GROW" out of the debt crisis.
Grow, with WHAT.
We'd need a "Sudden" invention which borders on reverse entropy energy generation.
Tp4 can understand the enthusiasm for AI, but if it was sentient enough to invent such a thing, it's sentient enough to cut humans out of the deal.
Transhumanism is again, not what you've imagined, there is no YOU in that movie, the AI is the transhuman, there wouldn't be any other human, just the AI, the 1 blob.
Tp4 is ok with that, ideologically, but the incompetence in the ep5ti class and their illogical fantasies is disasterous.
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The general premise of how we got hailtrerrrrerr, is that the economic hopelessness resultant of versai, led to the middle class and industrial corporations betting on anything other than democracy, and that was hailtrererrrr, the nasis.
And, they' is saying that's exactly what afd is.
Pretty much yea... it's reasonable.
But the political ideology is sound all around, ANY of the belief systems could've worked HAD THEY BEEN PROPERLY IMPLEMENTED.
The problem is when the TIRE HITS THE ROAD, you have Human Beings, with Human Frailties.
Regardless of Promise, you have reality, which is human beings making decisions to INCREASE emotional happiness supplemented by Energy.
This is unlimited from the perspective of the human, the energy seems limitless, and 1 person doesn't use all that much.
But when the framework of decision making is Entirely enveloped in the Utopia experiment, That process is no longer human, as it no longer serves the living, it merely produces happiness.
Where happiness is supposed to come from, is hijacked by industrial energy.
We make happiness out of energy, And because humans can only see and FEEL so much, they no longer have a bearing on which way is up, because the happiness they feel is disconnected and unknown, it just happens.
A utopian society with no lore to explain where everything comes from, self terminates.
Drug addiction is not sustainable, because rapidly, an addict no longer performs the necessary rituals which maintain the mental pathways for LIFE.
In the same way, we carry on with our respective Air Conditioned Bubbles, totally disconnected from the REAL Life support system.
We tilt it so severely, both physically, and mentally, that the governing system chooses (war) suicide.
We all pay into it with our collective pathologies, until it kills everything.
And for those who see war as anything else, Tp4 goes back to his prime allegory, your left hand stabs your right hand, america stabs russia, Same planet, same lifesupport system, what is that IF NOT SUICIDE.
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prime allegory, your left hand stabs your right hand
“When you say my legacy, I’ll be a block. I’ll end up being a blocker. I’ll block all their bad stuff for two years,” Trump said. “It won’t be the same, but I’ll be a blocker — what can I tell you?”
- the Donald on Fox TV 2026-09-10
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It's not Dv mp's fault, he's just a paid actor, like the entirety of western govnment.
The poorly arranged money system behind the scenes is responsible.
Starting with Clinton is when they undid everything roosevelt put in place during the golden age. Biden obamr equally bad, if not actually alot worse than dmp.
We have 2 extremist right wing parties running 'murika.