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geekhack Community => Off Topic => Topic started by: cgoldberg on Mon, 21 February 2011, 10:14:28

Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: cgoldberg on Mon, 21 February 2011, 10:14:28
very interesting stuff.

"Building Watson: An Overview of the DeepQA Project"
https://www.stanford.edu/class/cs124/AIMagzine-DeepQA.pdf (PDF)
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: digitalleftovers on Mon, 21 February 2011, 10:16:48
I want one for my company's call center =)
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: keyboardlover on Mon, 21 February 2011, 11:00:17
Watson is not actually "intelligent".

I'm impressed but only mildly. While computers can be programmed to make decisions on very large amounts of data, the decisions are programmed by people. The computer is only as intelligent therefore as the programmer who designs it.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: .XL on Mon, 21 February 2011, 11:47:25
Quote from: keyboardlover;298783
Watson is not actually "intelligent".

I'm impressed but only mildly. While computers can be programmed to make decisions on very large amounts of data, the decisions are programmed by people. The computer is only as intelligent therefore as the programmer who designs it.


Good thing I don't program, then...it'd be iRobot in real life!
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: hoggy on Mon, 21 February 2011, 13:46:22
Quote from: keyboardlover;298783
Watson is not actually "intelligent".

I'm impressed but only mildly. While computers can be programmed to make decisions on very large amounts of data, the decisions are programmed by people. The computer is only as intelligent therefore as the programmer who designs it.


Funny that.  The goal posts defining intelligence have moved quite a bit in the last half century or so...  It used to be about things that humans find hard - but a lot of that turned out to be stuff that wasn't impossible to program a computer to do.  Nowadays AI researchers tend to be more interested in getting computers to do things that humans find easy to do, but would find it hard going to program a computer to do.

It doesn't matter what breakthrough comes next, the goalposts will shift again.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: hoggy on Mon, 21 February 2011, 13:50:02
Quote from: digitalleftovers;298764
I want one for my company's call center =)


Yeah! but get one to hound a rival company's call center with difficult questions.

I'm sure Watson can be put to evil uses.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: clickclack on Mon, 21 February 2011, 14:24:12
Quote from: keyboardlover;298783
Watson is not actually "intelligent".

This ^ contradicts...

Quote from: keyboardlover;298783

 The computer is only as intelligent therefore as the programmer who designs it.

This  ^   doncha think?


I am quite impressed with what they were able to get this computer/program to do. Lets say for the heck of it that this computer is "only" as intelligent as it's programer(s) as you put it, then I think it's safe to say it's far more intelligent than the majority of people. LoL  XD

=)
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: keyboardlover on Mon, 21 February 2011, 14:26:08
I meant that its not "intelligent" in the same sense that humans are. It's impossible for computers to be, IMHO.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: didjamatic on Mon, 21 February 2011, 14:33:26
Just remember it was humans who built Watson.  :)
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: Crypt on Mon, 21 February 2011, 14:54:54
Quote from: keyboardlover;298783
Watson is not actually "intelligent".

I'm impressed but only mildly. While computers can be programmed to make decisions on very large amounts of data, the decisions are programmed by people. The computer is only as intelligent therefore as the programmer who designs it.
Computers can be programmed to make decisions that the programmer would not know how to make a correct decision about.  In other words, computers can be programmed to learn how to make their own decisions (see neural nets.)  As an example, a programmer could program a chess computer that could consistently beat the programmer.  The programmer only sets guidelines on how to learn to win at chess and not explicitly what move to make in each situation.  Whether you consider that intelligence or not is up to you, ultimately.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: keyboardlover on Mon, 21 February 2011, 15:33:36
I DO think its interesting that while computers can hear, see and speak, they cannot smell or feel. That makes me feel vastly superior.

Also computers know nothing of expressing emotions. Emoticons do NOT count people!

No matter HOW cute they are.

(http://geekhack.org/picture.php?pictureid=653&albumid=112&dl=1297990076&thumb=1)
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: quadibloc on Mon, 21 February 2011, 22:56:34
Quote from: hoggy;298863
It doesn't matter what breakthrough comes next, the goalposts will shift again.
For a while, but I don't see that as being dishonest.

Computers still can't do a lot of things that people can do. And, after the fact, things we thought would be hard for us to get computers to do have turned out to be achievable... in trivial ways that didn't give us much of a clue to how to get computers to do lots of other things that require "intelligence".

Some tasks do call for more sophisticated types of programming than the ordinary things computers are usually used for. They make less efficient use of CPU cycles as well.

But the goal posts won't move if something based on computer hardware has wants, desires, and feelings.

Quote from: clickclack;298891
Lets say for the heck of it that this computer is "only" as intelligent as it's programer(s) as you put it, then I think it's safe to say it's far more intelligent than the majority of people.
No. It's not intelligent at all.

It is good at answering trivia questions.

However, if someone told it that the budget for paying the electrical power bill for the computers on which it was running was running out, would it try to think of a way to find a paying job? Would it do anything? Would it even care?

No. It has none of that sort of thing. It parses text questions fed to it (it didn't do speech recognition, but was treated as a deaf contestant) in a somewhat open-ended manner, but it doesn't come close to dealing with reality like an intelligent organism.

This is not to say that intelligent computers are not possible. The neurons of which our brains are composed are physical objects which obey physical laws. But we are still hugely distant from being able to design true intelligence in silicon.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: instantkamera on Tue, 22 February 2011, 09:00:30
Funny thing is, I dont think it was all that much better at answering questions (than a jeopardy-calibre human). I think it's main strength was the same thing that has always been the forte of computers, and the reason we use them daily: It can do what we can do FASTER and more consistently. Namely, in this case, "buzz in". I find it hard to believe that either of the human contestants would know less than 80% of those answers, but for the most part, the only time they got to buzz in before Watson was when his certainty of an answer was relatively low.
This is basically the same reason we have used calculators for ages, not because we cant do the math, just that we are relatively SLOW at it.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: Half-Saint on Wed, 23 February 2011, 00:53:28
Well this topic may not be about what it says but anyway..

I'm seriously considering getting out of the IT business alltogether. I've been coding for a living for the past 7 years and I'm getting fed up. The main issue is that Microsoft keeps producing new sh*t every 2-3 years and it's virtually impossible to keep up. In my current job we're still doing most of the coding in .NET 2.0 which brings me to the second issue - having too many (idiot) bosses. I've changed three jobs now and it's been the same everywhere. I'm beginning to lose hope that there are normal companies out there.

The alternative is trade. My father has a small shop that deals mostly in numismatics as well as other stuff. If I decide to take over I plan to increase international visibility and sales. Current level is well almost non-existent. I'm also planning to expand the business to include Magic The Gathering for example as well as vintage games and stuff.

Any other coders/devs here thinking about changing jobs?

Cheers,
SainT
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: shrap on Wed, 23 February 2011, 01:18:43
I think programmers have the least to worry about. Watson is already poised to start working in the medical field.  Law seems like the next step, along with simpler tasks such as customer service and data mining.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: clickclack on Wed, 23 February 2011, 02:05:48
Wow, I just noticed how unfunny and/or vague my sense of humor apparently is.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: instantkamera on Wed, 23 February 2011, 06:15:09
Quote from: Half-Saint;299687
Well this topic may not be about what it says but anyway..

I'm seriously considering getting out of the IT business alltogether. I've been coding for a living for the past 7 years and I'm getting fed up. The main issue is that Microsoft keeps producing new sh*t every 2-3 years and it's virtually impossible to keep up. In my current job we're still doing most of the coding in .NET 2.0 which brings me to the second issue - having too many (idiot) bosses. I've changed three jobs now and it's been the same everywhere. I'm beginning to lose hope that there are normal companies out there.

The alternative is trade. My father has a small shop that deals mostly in numismatics as well as other stuff. If I decide to take over I plan to increase international visibility and sales. Current level is well almost non-existent. I'm also planning to expand the business to include Magic The Gathering for example as well as vintage games and stuff.

Any other coders/devs here thinking about changing jobs?

Cheers,
SainT

Stop coding for/with MS products...
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: keyboardlover on Wed, 23 February 2011, 06:26:53
My place does .net but tech currency is a big priority. We are already on vs 2010 and Sql 2008.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: quadibloc on Wed, 23 February 2011, 09:42:05
Quote from: ripster;299701
The Double Helix (http://www.amazon.com/Double-Helix-Personal-Discovery-Structure/dp/074321630X) is strongly recommended.
As in Watson and Crick, I take it. As I suspected from the lab coat...

Quote from: Half-Saint;299687
The alternative is trade. My father has a small shop that deals mostly in numismatics as well as other stuff. If I decide to take over I plan to increase international visibility and sales. Current level is well almost non-existent. I'm also planning to expand the business to include Magic The Gathering for example as well as vintage games and stuff.
Remember that new Magic: the Gathering product can't be sold internationally.

A coin and stamp store in a large shopping mall in my area added Magic: the Gathering as well as sports cards in its general "collectibles" theme, and is doing quite well.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: quadibloc on Wed, 23 February 2011, 09:43:59
Quote from: Half-Saint;299687
The alternative is trade. My father has a small shop that deals mostly in numismatics as well as other stuff. If I decide to take over I plan to increase international visibility and sales. Current level is well almost non-existent. I'm also planning to expand the business to include Magic The Gathering for example as well as vintage games and stuff.
Remember that new Magic: the Gathering product can't be sold internationally.

A coin and stamp store in a large shopping mall in my area added Magic: the Gathering as well as sports cards in its general "collectibles" theme, and is doing quite well.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: Hak Foo on Wed, 23 February 2011, 22:45:32
Quote from: quadibloc;299810
As in Watson and Crick, I take it. As I suspected from the lab coat...

Remember that new Magic: the Gathering product can't be sold internationally.

A coin and stamp store in a large shopping mall in my area added Magic: the Gathering as well as sports cards in its general "collectibles" theme, and is doing quite well.



Don't get too hung up on gold right now.  A lot of coin dealers, during these rushes, get flooded with gold-centric business and can end up pretty dependent on the market bubble.

In the US, in 1980, gold spiked to like USD900 per ounce (apparently close to USD2000 when adjusted for inflation) but the bubble burst fast.

When the price of gold collapses again-- and odds are, it will, given that a lot of it was a runup due to fears about other markets-- the last guy holding onto the gold loses his shirt.

/afk to hoard foreign banknotes.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: keyboardlover on Thu, 24 February 2011, 08:01:32
Good thing I do .net now. M$ FTW!
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: instantkamera on Thu, 24 February 2011, 10:22:50
RE: Watson's buzz speed, they are basically saying it does, in fact, have a super-human ability to buzz. 5-10 milliseconds is many times faster than human avg. Also, it is CONSISTENT.

Their argument that Watson does not win ALL the buzz-races is silly, since Watson's decision to buzz was based on it's certainty (much the same as a human would decided whether to buzz or not).

If you dont agree, read the response from Ken himself, who admits that is an ADVANTAGE of Watson, but did not consider it "unfair", as Watson did suffer certain disadvantages as well.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: instantkamera on Thu, 24 February 2011, 10:25:47
What argument? And who is a sore loser?
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: instantkamera on Thu, 24 February 2011, 13:08:45
Something only humans care about.

What are "sufficiently vague posts to avoid any direct discussion and possible conflict"?
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: cyberphine on Thu, 24 February 2011, 13:09:22
Quote from: Half-Saint;299687
Well this topic may not be about what it says but anyway..

I'm seriously considering getting out of the IT business alltogether. I've been coding for a living for the past 7 years and I'm getting fed up. The main issue is that Microsoft keeps producing new sh*t every 2-3 years and it's virtually impossible to keep up. In my current job we're still doing most of the coding in .NET 2.0 which brings me to the second issue - having too many (idiot) bosses. I've changed three jobs now and it's been the same everywhere. I'm beginning to lose hope that there are normal companies out there.

The alternative is trade. My father has a small shop that deals mostly in numismatics as well as other stuff. If I decide to take over I plan to increase international visibility and sales. Current level is well almost non-existent. I'm also planning to expand the business to include Magic The Gathering for example as well as vintage games and stuff.

Any other coders/devs here thinking about changing jobs?

Cheers,
SainT


I feel your pain.  I switched to security for a while, then back to programming again.  The painful fact about programming is that their is very little "intellectual capital" that can be carried over from year after year.  Knowing a product today isn't going to help you tomorrow.  Lawyers / Doctors / Engineers build intellectual capital every year and are rewarded for that intellectual capital late in their career.  Programming is such a young industry that it's hard to build capital with the ever changing technology.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: chimera15 on Thu, 24 February 2011, 14:24:57
As discussed in Irobot, imo computers won't be fully recognized as intelligent, even if they are, until they act on their own and disobey humans in their own self interest, just like a 2 year old child does.


Just hope it's not hooked up to weaponry or skynet when it does.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: keyboardlover on Fri, 25 February 2011, 20:26:15
I am not afraid of Watson. Any computer designed by man can be destroyed by man.

Here's how:

Me: "Watson, please explain the logic behind Cherry Corp. product codes."

Watson:

(http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/files/images/mushroom-cloud.jpg)
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: 8_INCH_FLOPPY on Fri, 25 February 2011, 20:38:01
Last time I checked, Watson wasn't responsible for programming itself, so how exactly do programmers need a new profession?
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: Voixdelion on Fri, 25 February 2011, 22:32:40
okay, once again I am apparently out of the loop.  What happened?  A computer went on Jeopardy?  And why does the title of the thread make me think of the Terminator skeleton rising from the smoking ruins?
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: hoggy on Sat, 26 February 2011, 13:19:44
Will Watson be forced to sing as well?
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: hoggy on Sat, 26 February 2011, 13:22:04
Just imagine the havoc if muggle studies covered autohotkey...  None of that tedious wand waving...
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: pfink on Sat, 26 February 2011, 14:42:31
Quote from: cyberphine;300366
The painful fact about programming is that their is very little "intellectual capital" that can be carried over from year after year.


I disagree. Once you master essential programming concepts you can use and build on them indefinitely, so the intellectual capital is definitely being carried over. Sure, you have to learn new things on a regular basis but mastering different languages and platforms is trivial in comparison to learning how to program well in the first place.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: cyberphine on Sat, 26 February 2011, 14:45:53
Quote from: pfink;301420
I disagree. Once you master essential programming concepts you can use and build on them indefinitely, so the intellectual capital is definitely being carried over. Sure, you have to learn new things on a regular basis but mastering different languages and platforms is trivial in comparison to learning how to program well in the first place.


Keyword was "very little".  Relative to a profession like law.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: Soarer on Sat, 26 February 2011, 15:06:11
I agree with pfink - new languages don't come around that often, and rarely offer a huge paradigm shift. Frameworks and such are more of a pain, but there's such a wealth of material available these days it really doesn't take long to feel familiar with something.

Law keeps changing as well - actually, I'd imagine it's probably quite similar to programming in the amount of time that 'change' takes up.

Maybe it's because I grew through doing electronics, then assembly, then C etc, then various OO languages - from my perspective it really hasn't changed that much! On the other hand, I wouldn't like to go back to programming assembly with hardly any libraries available: progress is good :)

I'm still hoping to find time to get a handle on Lisp... preferably before I retire!
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: keyboardlover on Sat, 26 February 2011, 15:18:28
I think that frameworks/APIs are getting larger and there is much more reuse than ever before. Especially with frameworks like Rails you can put up a very feature rich site crazy fast. Languages are becoming more feature rich too - as soon as Java automated creation of getters and setters (in Java 6), .Net did the same thing in Framework 4.0. As far as I'm concerned, the less code I have to write, the better. Gives me more time to do what's really valuable in software development - working closely with analysts to design the solution.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: Ekaros on Sat, 26 February 2011, 17:18:19
Are you suggesting I'm learning C99 and MIPS for nothing?
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: quadibloc on Mon, 28 February 2011, 10:22:21
Quote from: keyboardlover;301153
Me: "Watson, please explain the logic behind Cherry Corp. product codes."
You've been watching too much Star Trek.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: instantkamera on Wed, 02 March 2011, 17:43:21
Quote from: ripster;301506
To be clear you OFTEN are a sore loser.


Care to cite sources?
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: instantkamera on Wed, 02 March 2011, 17:52:09
Quote from: ripster;303716
Not really.


That's what I thought.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: keyboardlover on Wed, 02 March 2011, 18:12:30
He's lazy.
Title: Programmers - Time for a new profession - A New Day Arises
Post by: instantkamera on Thu, 03 March 2011, 07:31:56
Thanks for taking the high ground, we could all learn a thing or two from you...