geekhack
geekhack Community => Off Topic => Topic started by: Puddsy on Sat, 30 December 2017, 22:27:59
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Raffle
Pros:
- Long entry window (timezones are less of an issue)
- Easier to deal with a blacklist and/or spot duplicate entries (if applicable)
Cons:
- Easy to cast duplicate entries ("Hey, I know you're not into this, but can you enter and sell to me if you win?" or just making duplicate accounts with no posts)
- Hard to gate accounts fairly (for example, post-count or karma gating users out of a raffle deletes lurkers)
- Difficult to tell how slots are being distributed, and if they're being distributed fairly
FCFS:
Pros:
- Extremely difficult to cast duplicate entries (making second accounts discouraged by nature of the format)
- Sort of skill based (faster typists will win every time on a properly built form)
- Easier on GB runner (when all slots are filled, just go ahead with next steps)
Cons:
- Potentially short entry window (timezones, price, and MOQ are major factors)
- Harder to gate entries, especially if you have a blacklist ("My entry went in an :01, but people who got in at :02 won and I didn't?")
This thread is now dedicated to this debate point. I'm curious on y'all's thoughts about it.
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what are the Prizes ??
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As you stated, they both certainly have pros and cons. I just can't get over the fact that FCFS is significantly unfair to people who have other responsibilities at the time when they would have to be filling out an online form to join in the group buy.
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As a GB runner, chose FCFS both times because I didn't think there was enough demand.
As someone entering something, FCFS, as I seem to win more. Don't care how the distribution happens, I either win or I don't.
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As a GB runner, chose FCFS both times because I didn't think there was enough demand.
As someone entering something, FCFS, as I seem to win more. Don't care how the distribution happens, I either win or I don't.
I definitely win more often in FCFS than I do in raffles.
With Mech27, Devin and I learned that FCFS might be able to fill demand better than raffle
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I think it depends on the product being sold and the means in which it's being sold (I'll explain that lol)
Raffle Style
This style is (in my own opinion) good for small supply but large demand (i.e. artisans) with the intent on more similar products in the future.
On the flip side this style is bad for say a PCB or Custom kit as a PCB is "cheap" and easy to reproduce or a Custom Kit may only be around for one round.
FCFS Style
The style is good for small supply, small demand products or a "medium" supply with a saturated market (making a 60% custom in a sea of 60% customs)
This is not a good style for products like artisans where the time to produce a large supply of them will eventually out weight the profitable margins, this has happened to certain artisan makers where they get a large order and then it takes absolutely forever to fulfill while they could be have lot's of "mini" sales to help keep profit margins stable.
My Humble Conclusion
It really depends, I personally prefer FCFS in most instances as I have terrible luck. But winning a raffle is always a rush.
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The reason I like raffles is that they feel equally unfair to everyone. You'll have people gaming the system no matter which system you use. People who get their friends to enter raffles for them will also get them to enter fcfs or flash sales.
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FCFS to me is more fair so is limiting the number people can get. The demand is there so why not limit to 1 per person. I don't want to hear the argument about shipping. These creators are making serious bank when it comes to gross profits. I bet a typical single sell nets them between 5-10k dollars Gross. Given they most likely lose 25-30% of that for Tax, materials, and fee's. There still making a hefty profit for something they do part time.
I wanted to add why not do a Raffle that has a 12 month window... Using a system that prioritizes those that hadn't won in 12 months. That way things are more distributed. Basically if you hadn't won in the past 12 months your entry counts higher then someone who has. Thus making it more fair and more even. Its really disheartening to hear the same people winning over and over. While I wouldn't accuse anyone of rigging a raffle. I could see people trying and It be hard to turn down the money. Look at what some people pay for artisan's on ebay. Is it really that far fetched for someone to offer a creators 500-1000 dollar's to make sure they win the raffle for something they really want. How would anyone know other then the creator and the person paying.
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FCFS to me is more fair so is limiting the number people can get. The demand is there so why not limit to 1 per person. I don't want to hear the argument about shipping. These creators are making serious bank when it comes to gross profits. I bet a typical single sell nets them between 5-10k dollars Gross. Given they most likely lose 25-30% of that for Tax, materials, and fee's. There still making a hefty profit for something they do part time.
depends on what they're selling
i don't know the intimates of too many GBs, but i can tell you most people aren't making NEARLY as much as you think from keyboards
obviously there are exceptions to every rule
I think it depends on the product being sold and the means in which it's being sold (I'll explain that lol)
Raffle Style
This style is (in my own opinion) good for small supply but large demand (i.e. artisans) with the intent on more similar products in the future.
On the flip side this style is bad for say a PCB or Custom kit as a PCB is "cheap" and easy to reproduce or a Custom Kit may only be around for one round.
FCFS Style
The style is good for small supply, small demand products or a "medium" supply with a saturated market (making a 60% custom in a sea of 60% customs)
This is not a good style for products like artisans where the time to produce a large supply of them will eventually out weight the profitable margins, this has happened to certain artisan makers where they get a large order and then it takes absolutely forever to fulfill while they could be have lot's of "mini" sales to help keep profit margins stable.
My Humble Conclusion
It really depends, I personally prefer FCFS in most instances as I have terrible luck. But winning a raffle is always a rush.
i agree with you on all points
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FCFS to me is more fair so is limiting the number people can get. The demand is there so why not limit to 1 per person. I don't want to hear the argument about shipping. These creators are making serious bank when it comes to gross profits. I bet a typical single sell nets them between 5-10k dollars Gross. Given they most likely lose 25-30% of that for Tax, materials, and fee's. There still making a hefty profit for something they do part time.
depends on what they're selling
i don't know the intimates of too many GBs, but i can tell you most people aren't making NEARLY as much as you think from keyboards
obviously there are exceptions to every rule
I think it depends on the product being sold and the means in which it's being sold (I'll explain that lol)
Raffle Style
This style is (in my own opinion) good for small supply but large demand (i.e. artisans) with the intent on more similar products in the future.
On the flip side this style is bad for say a PCB or Custom kit as a PCB is "cheap" and easy to reproduce or a Custom Kit may only be around for one round.
FCFS Style
The style is good for small supply, small demand products or a "medium" supply with a saturated market (making a 60% custom in a sea of 60% customs)
This is not a good style for products like artisans where the time to produce a large supply of them will eventually out weight the profitable margins, this has happened to certain artisan makers where they get a large order and then it takes absolutely forever to fulfill while they could be have lot's of "mini" sales to help keep profit margins stable.
My Humble Conclusion
It really depends, I personally prefer FCFS in most instances as I have terrible luck. But winning a raffle is always a rush.
i agree with you on all points
I was thinking Artisan's keyboards I understand the raffle thought, it does burn me a little that your entering for a chance to pay several 100 dollars for something. I do do wish those where limitless like have a MOQ then if it goes over fine..
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there are very few reasons for a keyboard to have a cap
main one for me would be the runner's logistics capabilities, that's why recent LZs and mech27v2 have caps
TGR i think it's something to do with his manufacturer, mainly the anodizer
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there are very few reasons for a keyboard to have a cap
main one for me would be the runner's logistics capabilities, that's why recent LZs and mech27v2 have caps
TGR i think it's something to do with his manufacturer, mainly the anodizer
The real drawback I can see with keyboard GB's is either the provider/designer's capabilities to fulfill or the manufacturer limiting the sale (less likely imo)
A lot of buys I think may have unnecessary caps to "draw" people to buy quick.
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Personally I’m more of a fan of FCFS. I think it pays back individuals who have been supporting a project from the start, where a raffle is completely random. It also makes things a bit more fun, nothing like the rush of sending an email/filling a form at a specific time.
There are definite cons to each and you can’t satisfy everyone. Might as well have fun :)
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I prefer FCFS because I feel like it gets the product into the hands of people that want it the most. I understand why raffles are popular with artisans though.
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Staggered FCFS is the best. 20 minute windows 6-hours apart four times in one day. Allows everyone in every time zone to try. Allows for second attempts. The kind of person that's likely to get in during one of the earlier windows, then tries and succeeds again during one of the later windows, is also the kind of person who is unlikely to drop out from the GB - causing less overall administrative pain.
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FCFS is easily the most widely cheated system. If you have a small quantity of product to sell (literally every and any artisan sale), FCFS makes no sense. Even amateur makers have hordes of interested parties that will pay whatever it costs to own one of their caps. To be successful at winning FCFS sales you have to have excellent typing skills (or program a script), outstanding internet connection (ideally a connection that is close to the server that is hosting the website or google forum), and a lot of patience before the sale starts.
Running a sale as a raffle not only balances the playing field, but exposes your sale to a much wider audience and increases your potential popularity for future sales, leading to increased revenue for the maker. People want to feel like they have as much of a chance as anyone else. FCFS eliminates this.
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FCFS is easily the most widely cheated system. If you have a small quantity of product to sell (literally every and any artisan sale), FCFS makes no sense. Even amateur makers have hordes of interested parties that will pay whatever it costs to own one of their caps. To be successful at winning FCFS sales you have to have excellent typing skills (or program a script), outstanding internet connection (ideally a connection that is close to the server that is hosting the website or google forum), and a lot of patience before the sale starts.
Running a sale as a raffle not only balances the playing field, but exposes your sale to a much wider audience and increases your potential popularity for future sales, leading to increased revenue for the maker. People want to feel like they have as much of a chance as anyone else. FCFS eliminates this.
What even is FCFS ??
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FCFS is easily the most widely cheated system. If you have a small quantity of product to sell (literally every and any artisan sale), FCFS makes no sense. Even amateur makers have hordes of interested parties that will pay whatever it costs to own one of their caps. To be successful at winning FCFS sales you have to have excellent typing skills (or program a script), outstanding internet connection (ideally a connection that is close to the server that is hosting the website or google forum), and a lot of patience before the sale starts.
Running a sale as a raffle not only balances the playing field, but exposes your sale to a much wider audience and increases your potential popularity for future sales, leading to increased revenue for the maker. People want to feel like they have as much of a chance as anyone else. FCFS eliminates this.
What even is FCFS ??
First come first served. Basically the product is sold to the first person who buys it as opposed to entering a raffle for a chance to win a spot to buy the product.
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First come first served. Basically the product is sold to the first person who buys it as opposed to entering a raffle for a chance to win a spot to buy the product.
Ok I see.
Well in real life.. The super-rare highly coveted items are only Given or Sold to people of celebrity status or celebrity level wealth.
Then, after having built a base for brand-status, they create sub-brands // off-shoots for middle class and general-consumer items..
Since the majority of GH divers are unfortunate proletariat broke-ass m#thrfk##, that ultimate form of collectors/keepsake marketing would never work.
In this circumstance, It's actually impossible to brand build, because you simply don't have super-wealthy clients at this level of consumer product (Computer Keyboards).
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I'm a fan of FCFS. But if I was a GB runner, I'd also include some subjective selections as to who gets in if a name that was prominent in showing interest wasn't present. Especially since it seems like disputes are getting handed out like hotcakes... I may advocate being heavy-handed in picking through people.
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I’m fine with FCFS, because I know how to win now, but no way is it fair. If you are prepared, you can also game FCFS way harder.
Most of the flaws listed with raffles aren’t actually flaws with raffles but flaws with how some raffles have been run. There is nothing about a raffle that prevents making it balanced in different ways, you can for example give people more entires if they enter earlier, you can have a separate pool for people who expressed interest during the IC. If you want to prevent cheaters, you could for example have everyone who enters PayPal a dollar from a VERIFIED account.
FCFS is certainly the easiest, and for stuff with less demand it’s not super critical which way you go, but there is no way to really make FCFS fair, the same people will always win. Raffle is as fair as the runner chooses to make it, but at least then the potential exists.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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I'm a fan of FCFS. But if I was a GB runner, I'd also include some subjective selections as to who gets in if a name that was prominent in showing interest wasn't present. Especially since it seems like disputes are getting handed out like hotcakes... I may advocate being heavy-handed in picking through people.
i mean the best way to handle buyers is through a private GB
that way you don't have to worry as much about people going rogue if there's a delay
my bold 2018 prediction is an uptick in private GBs
we're already seeing it start
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I think ETF has got it almost figured out. Advertise a 'drop' time, raffle form, and only leave the window open long enough for people that were prepared. Kind of a hybrid between fcfs and raffle.
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I think ETF has got it almost figured out. Advertise a 'drop' time, raffle form, and only leave the window open long enough for people that were prepared. Kind of a hybrid between fcfs and raffle.
that's just FCFS though
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My work schedule can be really hectic so I prefer raffle. Even with raffle flash sales, I usually get a ping and have a chance of entering. I have won two fcfs styles. One of them was the very first ETF micro and no one really knew about it. I lucked out and was online. The second was a Bro email sale. Other than those, I lose fcfs every time.
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I'm pretty sure anyone can write a script for FCFS. Either way I have zero experience at the moment.
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I think ETF has got it almost figured out. Advertise a 'drop' time, raffle form, and only leave the window open long enough for people that were prepared. Kind of a hybrid between fcfs and raffle.
that's just FCFS though
It has the benefits of FCFS but with out the long drawn out "get everyone in here so the chances of winning are diminished to nill" problems of a 24 hours raffle entry. FCFS when you have small numbers and thousands of people refreshing a webpage is insane. Kind of how the ebay buy-it-now days went this summer. Its not impossible but I think giving people the opportunity to get a form filled out but not much more time than that would be great at keeping a balance between the two methods.
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I'm pretty sure anyone can write a script for FCFS. Either way I have zero experience at the moment.
theres lots of browser plug-ins that refresh a page on a schedule and then send you notifications if a selected portion of the page has been changed. I personally use Distill in Opera which notified me when "the birb" was posted because i was monitoring ETF's profile posts time stamp as well as his ebay listings. I had it checking every 10min pretty much all summer long. I have it pulling all sorts of "sold out" websites all over the place on a daily or 8 hour cycle.
... it could not have gotten me those ebay drops. Thats pretty much being quick with the refresh and buy it now button. But if 500 people are doing the same thing, you're talking milliseconds between a win and a fail.
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I'm pretty sure anyone can write a script for FCFS. Either way I have zero experience at the moment.
a well designed form avoids this problem
obviously you can macro all your info into your keyboard, but someone still has to be there to open it and look at it
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Yea scripting seems a bit extreme especially when an adequately complicated capcha is thrown into the mix
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There’s so many keyboards being made available, FCFS shouldn’t be a huge issue. It’s really only been a problem on a few of the dozens of GB’s being made available. I think people just need to cope better and move on. I can guarantee in a month or two there will be another awesome board being made available. We don’t need to enter every single one.
If people want to write scripts or game the system in some other way, whatever, I don’t approve but there will always be a dirtbag somewhere.
The “fun” of raffles wears fairly thin with artisan sales for me. I guess the notion of not needing to enter anything and everything is not the mainstream attitude right now?