It's unfortunate, but until HTML 5 supports
video streaming, Flash is not going away.
HTML 5 supports video
FILES, but if you want to stream live video, or long form media to the desktop, you still have to use a plugin. Flash is universal so it's the goto plugin most people use.
My company looked at implementing a native h.264 stream without the need for a plugin, but the only browser that supports it is Safari on the Mac. Any other browser, or platform requires a QuickTime plugin. Even Chrome on the Mac requires the plugin.
We decided most people would rather use Flash than QuickTime, so Flash it is.
Given Apple's influence, my best guess is that we'll start to see more browsers support HLS streaming, which is what most mobile devices do, and the need for plugins will go away. We're still years away from that being a reality.