Oh, and Mougrim, on this website filled with technical geeks, I am very much in the minority. Let me show you what a non-technical geek is like:
My analysis of the situation follows in brief:
Ukraine is a borderland between distinct ecological, sentimental (history and ethnicity), and cultural zones.
Ukraine will always be geopolitically caught between Europe and Russia. Unless you split the country (I think the convenient line from Kiev to Dnepropetrovsk looks good as a water-based natural border, then SW to Odessa to account for history and demographics), there will always be people who look east and people who look west.
The geography is sucky for defense. That’s why all kinds of ethnic groups – Scythians, Greeks, Avars, Tartars and more – have marched over Ukraine. But the same disadvantages can be enormous advantages in times of peace. Ukraine is where most pipelines run through, and it is well located for an Eurasian silk road trade – trans-Eurasian high speed railways between Western Europe and East Asia.
Smart leaders in Kiev would know that they must always balance Russia and Europe. It can be done. Negotiate cheap resources from Russia and get EU development funds. Make sure Russia doesn’t feel threatened and don’t ask to join NATO, but get the best of European living standards and governance standards and EU freebies that Germany is always disbursing to peripheral states like Greece and Portugal.
Too bad nobody has been smart enough to do that so far.
Average or inferior leaders will just stick with one side, and infuriate the other side. That’s what has been going on since independence.
Perhaps because Ukraine hasn’t had much of a history as a distinct state, and also due to Soviet cultural influence, its leaders feel the need to run a centralized state from Kiev. So no matter who is in charge, it will piss off some part of the country or other, leading to more demonstrations and riots.
Ukraine isn’t a homogenous nation like Poland or Ireland with a strong sense of one identity. What will probably work much better is a Federal system much like Germany or Switzerland, AND official use of two languages. There’s no need to worry that Ukraine will fall apart just because Russian is an official language – Switzerland is majority German speakers and they’ve never considered joining Germany or Austria.
Considering Ukraine’s resources, it could be the richest country in Europe. But as you see, this is not possible without political stability and leaders who are capable of marshalling the country’s resources properly. Like Thailand I think Ukraine is doomed to remain messed up until all factions are exhausted from quarrelling and a good leader comes along.
