Yes, it sounds like it's one of the shifts. Does either of them feel funny, or not work correctly?
The } could mean another iffy switch - how does } feel?
Removing a keycap is pretty easy on an IBM - I often use the wide screwdriver blade on a swiss army knife, since it has no sharp edges, to lever up one side while holding the other side with my finger. The main thing is to try and pull it fairly straight upwards, and under control.
Don't worry, we'll help you along... there's an animation on
this page which will give you an idea of what's inside each switch.
Don't worry about the bolt mod just yet. I'd say open the case and visually check the rivets, but unfortunately the Model M case can't be opened with a regular socket, because they are too wide - a nut-driver works well (5.5mm).