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geekhack Community => Other Geeky Stuff => Topic started by: microsoft windows on Mon, 05 August 2013, 16:41:18

Title: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: microsoft windows on Mon, 05 August 2013, 16:41:18
What do you all think about where keyboards are going to be in the long term? After seeing everybody using smart-phones and tablets nowadays, do you think keyboards are going to go obsolete and be replaced by touch screens?
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: esoomenona on Mon, 05 August 2013, 16:42:03
Even if they were, there would still be us, using outdated input devices.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: alaricljs on Mon, 05 August 2013, 16:44:19
Casual home users may move to tablets or make a laptop their primary keyboard usage.  Business users and home users that do a lot of typing will still want a real keyboard.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Grim Fandango on Mon, 05 August 2013, 16:47:02
I agree that for casual use , sleek and compact solutions will likely be the most popular. For business use and people who value good input devices there will still be physical keys. For now it is still the solution that works best with the human anatomy.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hashbaz on Mon, 05 August 2013, 16:53:22
I have a hard time believing that touchscreens will ever be as accurate and fast as inputting text with physical buttons.  People who type for a living (writers, programmers, IT professionals, pro gamers) will keep keyboards alive.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: CommunistWitchDr on Mon, 05 August 2013, 16:54:18
The keyboard will not be totally replaced until we have direct neural interfaces so we can think to type. Voice will never catch on because people don't want to say what they're typing and touch screen is impractical for anything serious.

Though the most serious typists don't use keyboards anyway, steno all the way at the top.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: rowdy on Mon, 05 August 2013, 17:17:16
For end users, the touch screen is already taking hold.  For many people, a table is their only computing device.

For programmers, we still need a keyboard.  Neural input will have to improve markedly before it will be of use for programming.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: baldgye on Mon, 05 August 2013, 17:21:23
For end users, the touch screen is already taking hold.  For many people, a table is their only computing device.

For programmers, we still need a keyboard.  Neural input will have to improve markedly before it will be of use for programming.

I think for anyone actually working on a machine a proper keyboard will be required for a long time to come becasue it's just so much better than nearly every other kind of input.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Leslieann on Mon, 05 August 2013, 18:30:58
The keyboard will not be totally replaced until we have direct neural interfaces so we can think to type. Voice will never catch on because people don't want to say what they're typing and touch screen is impractical for anything serious.

Though the most serious typists don't use keyboards anyway, steno all the way at the top.

This.
Any job needing significant data input will have keyboards for a long time, the keyboard will outlast the home PC (PC, not home computer, but this is a discussion for another time).

Voice was dead on arrival for offices, imagine 50 people all trying to voice to their computer while others are on the phone. It's also a recipe for disaster. Walk into an "enemies" cubicle and just tell it to close document, ignore changes... Their whole day is shot. Or how about working while your spouse is sleeping next to you? The Minority Report screen was also dead on arrival (yes, they exist). It's a hassle to use, much less see.  Even touch screens on desktops and notebooks are struggling, it's awkward to from keyboard to touch and back, too many different planes of use. All of these "improvements" look great on paper and on movie screens, but unless they can input information better or easier, they are dead on arrival.

Touch screens are taking off on tablets due to convenience, however, many, many tablets are sitting idle because people have figured out they aren't meant for daily computing. You need a keyboard for data entry (and a mouse helps too), which is why there are so many keyboard/folio cases. Voice works on phones, but again, this is due to convenience, the device is too small for even the poor typing you do on a tablet. How many times have you seen people talking to Siri on their Ipad? Voice works on a phone due to limited abilities, and size. However, all of this is in a transition phase, so don't count on it all working as it does now in the future. Everything will become more coalesced and will alter the input/output landscape.

It's convenience, not speed or accuracy. Keep in mind these devices have less data coming back out at the same time. The best example is how they use computers on Star Trek, they communicate by voice with the computer, but it's limited information that is pre-sorted, when they need to input or view larger amounts of data, they still use a terminal with a keyboard.


Bottom line, don't count out the keyboard or mouse. Even if your computer disappears, the mouse and keyboard will stick around for a while because they are the easiest and most convenient input method for large amounts of data.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: fohat.digs on Mon, 05 August 2013, 20:24:37
I totally agree with Leslieann on the keyboard.

I probably agree about the mouse, too, but I hate mice and always have. The alternatives are worse, although handy in specific limited situations.

Please, somebody, make a better manual pointing device!
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: noisyturtle on Mon, 05 August 2013, 20:40:42
I could see innovation for the mouse in the near future that could replace the standard, but keyboards allow so much variation of input reliant on the users direct knowledge and use, I don't see anything directly succeeding it any time soon unless I can think lines of code and have it appear on-screen formatted and written the way I intended.

Also as moose stated, we will always be here supporting outdated tech anyway.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: do_Og@n on Mon, 05 August 2013, 20:59:05
I don't know if it's our generation but I could never use a touch device on my computer. I've always been the type of person to want to touch and feel what I am typing out. If there was a mechanical keyboard I could use on my phone I would.

I can only see the voice technology working if it was mapped to voice recognition. Even then it would drive me nuts to talk to my computer....I say to many things that shouldn't be typed (depending on how long the day feels).

Well put Leslieann!!!
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: davkol on Tue, 06 August 2013, 17:23:16
The keyboard will not be totally replaced until we have direct neural interfaces so we can think to type. Voice will never catch on because people don't want to say what they're typing and touch screen is impractical for anything serious.

Though the most serious typists don't use keyboards anyway, steno all the way at the top.

This.
Any job needing significant data input will have keyboards for a long time, the keyboard will outlast the home PC (PC, not home computer, but this is a discussion for another time).

Voice was dead on arrival for offices, imagine 50 people all trying to voice to their computer while others are on the phone. It's also a recipe for disaster. Walk into an "enemies" cubicle and just tell it to close document, ignore changes... Their whole day is shot. Or how about working while your spouse is sleeping next to you? The Minority Report screen was also dead on arrival (yes, they exist). It's a hassle to use, much less see.  Even touch screens on desktops and notebooks are struggling, it's awkward to from keyboard to touch and back, too many different planes of use. All of these "improvements" look great on paper and on movie screens, but unless they can input information better or easier, they are dead on arrival.

Touch screens are taking off on tablets due to convenience, however, many, many tablets are sitting idle because people have figured out they aren't meant for daily computing. You need a keyboard for data entry (and a mouse helps too), which is why there are so many keyboard/folio cases. Voice works on phones, but again, this is due to convenience, the device is too small for even the poor typing you do on a tablet. How many times have you seen people talking to Siri on their Ipad? Voice works on a phone due to limited abilities, and size. However, all of this is in a transition phase, so don't count on it all working as it does now in the future. Everything will become more coalesced and will alter the input/output landscape.

It's convenience, not speed or accuracy. Keep in mind these devices have less data coming back out at the same time. The best example is how they use computers on Star Trek, they communicate by voice with the computer, but it's limited information that is pre-sorted, when they need to input or view larger amounts of data, they still use a terminal with a keyboard.


Bottom line, don't count out the keyboard or mouse. Even if your computer disappears, the mouse and keyboard will stick around for a while because they are the easiest and most convenient input method for large amounts of data.

You ignore laryngophones, haptics,...
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Findecanor on Wed, 07 August 2013, 10:29:02
The Minority Report screen was also dead on arrival (yes, they exist).
I still would not say that it exists, because the solutions are yet so primitive.
Sure, there is free-air gesture recognition (Leap Motion, MS Kinect,etc) and there is eye-tracking (Tobii, etc), but they need to be combined to achieve eye-hand-screen coordination. Sony owns the patent for that, and I don't see a product from them in this area.

Then for a shift to occur, there needs to be operating system support, applications, and hardware that is good enough over a critical threshold.
In the case of touch screens, Apple was able to set the ball rolling only because different types of tech had evolved to be good enough. For instance, a resistive touchscreen or a touchscreen with only one touch-point was not enough, a proper IPS LCD display with capacitative multitouch sensing was critical for the iPhone's success.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: kenmai9 on Wed, 07 August 2013, 10:30:23
People still use the Model M 30 years later..
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: pixel5 on Wed, 07 August 2013, 10:42:39
GAMERS.

Gamers will never grow out of the need for physical buttons.

And if they do, my keyboards are tested to 50 million actuations so I think I'm good for a while :D
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: TheSoulhunter on Wed, 07 August 2013, 13:01:47
Voice Input:

+ Potential for fast input
+ Mic doesn't cost more than a keyboard
- Software needs training to minimize errors (or work at all in case people speak some dialect etc.)
- Doesn't work well in loud environments
- Doesn't work for "typing while talking" scenarios (call-center/office/etc.)
- Doesn't work for confidential stuff "Enter Password! 842941!"
- Doesn't work for people with speaking disorders


Neural Interfaces:

+ Potential for very fast input
+ Works around most problems mentioned above
- Probably expensive, no matter how far in future keyboards will be cheaper
- Probably the software needs a lot of training to work well with a given person
- You don't want to type everything you think "Dear... Uhm... What was his name? Bill? Brian? I think it was Brian... Live of Brian...Fuuu, what I'm typing!?"


Touchscreens:

+ Possibly easier navigation (with the right UI) as it acts as a mouse replacement as well
- Typing for prolonged sessions causes strain and pain (no shock absorbing...)
- Touch-typing gets much much much harder (on old cellphones I could write SMS while having it in my trouser-pocket, try that with current touchscreen phones!)
- Not very precise and sometimes even laggy (tho this might change in future, but it will probably never match a KB in these terms)


I guess we will keep keyboards for long long time... :3
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: davkol on Wed, 07 August 2013, 14:36:43
Voice Input:

- Doesn't work well in loud environments

Again, what do *pilots* in the military use? Laryngophones. Obviously, planes are loud.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hashbaz on Wed, 07 August 2013, 15:54:29
Voice dictation is great for a lot of things, but I don't see it ever being a general input mechanism.  Ditto stenographic keyboards.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Leslieann on Wed, 07 August 2013, 17:05:14
The Minority Report screen was also dead on arrival (yes, they exist).
I still would not say that it exists, because the solutions are yet so primitive.
It's more than that, you are looking at light on a glass screen with no backing, have fun reading small text on that. Ever notice how dark it was in their office, that was the only way you could see the screen. Instead of open and airy, it looked more like a dungeon.

Go look at screen shots of the movie, you will notice there is almost no text ever on the screen that you can see. You will also notice that when what is on the screen is important, a black backdrop is suddenly behind it. Also, the resolution stunk because like I said, small text was illegible. Forget how to interact with it, it was a stupid idea before you hand ever even went to touch it.

And then there is the actual use of it, try holding your arms up like that for 8 hours.  I guarantee you, in a year, your arms will look like a pro wrestler. Just make sure you keep them both up evenly, or people may start asking how hairy your palms are.

- You don't want to type everything you think "Dear... Uhm... What was his name? Bill? Brian? I think it was Brian... Live of Brian...Fuuu, what I'm typing!?"
:))
Just think, if you hate your boss, you wouldn't have to work for him for long.
"Thursday schedule:Lunch with your hag of a wife, and if you knew how much I hate you, you would have fired me ages ago. I wonder if I could spike his coffee and sneak out early on Friday. Cr@p here he comes, act busy."


Again, what do *pilots* in the military use? Laryngophones. Obviously, planes are loud.
Back in the 50's and maybe some Russian planes maybe, most haven't used them in ages. I know the U.S. certainly hasn't.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: fohat.digs on Wed, 07 August 2013, 19:32:39
This afternoon, I forgot my digital camera and needed to take some important photos in bright sunlight using my "smart" phone (Samsung Galaxy).

Granted, I did not have my reading glasses, either, but I ended up taking retarded videos that started and stopped at random unexpected times.

I could not even see the screen, anyway, and had to simply guess whatever I was shooting.

There is a reasonable argument for having a little metal and plastic rectangle that can "do everything" but sometimes it is just too complex for a simple but important straightforward task.

Typing text is both and functional and sensual undertaking. Don't make me give up my wonderful keyboard.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: TheSoulhunter on Wed, 07 August 2013, 23:51:03
Voice Input:

- Doesn't work well in loud environments

Again, what do *pilots* in the military use? Laryngophones. Obviously, planes are loud.

But you have to wear that thing all day, or put it on/off each time you wanna enter text, sounds annoying,
and I guess the acceptance as standard input device for text would be rather low...
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hoggy on Thu, 08 August 2013, 00:51:25

Please, somebody, make a better manual pointing device!


Yeah, all I ask is for someone to take eye-tracking a little further and work out the position of my eyes, where they are pointing and then triangulate that with the tip of my finger so I can point at text without having to touch the screen.  Would pay a chunk of cash for it.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: davkol on Thu, 08 August 2013, 02:00:57
Voice Input:

- Doesn't work well in loud environments

Again, what do *pilots* in the military use? Laryngophones. Obviously, planes are loud.

But you have to wear that thing all day, or put it on/off each time you wanna enter text, sounds annoying,
and I guess the acceptance as standard input device for text would be rather low...

Throat microphones are made as phone accessories. Unfortunately, quality is kinda lacking in this case, but I wouldn't be surprised if people adopted it as some did in case of Google Glass, although some wouldn't wear glasses otherwise. Or it should be rather easy to implant.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hashbaz on Thu, 08 August 2013, 02:44:41
Yeah, all I ask is for someone to take eye-tracking a little further and work out the position of my eyes, where they are pointing and then triangulate that with the tip of my finger so I can point at text without having to touch the screen.  Would pay a chunk of cash for it.

Mm-hmmm.  Writing code would be sooo much better if all motion commands could reduced to "snap the cursor to my eye focus".
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: TheQsanity on Thu, 08 August 2013, 03:14:10
Smartphones hurt my thumbs when playing games. I press way harder than I need to.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Glod on Thu, 08 August 2013, 04:11:31
i think tactile input devices are going to take many decades before they will go away or even longer, but will a revolutionary tactile input device sometime replace the traditional keyboard? its possible....

what saddens me is that i see offices now issue out these really crap mice and keyboards, flat mice and scissor switch keyboards. crap fonts. no ergonomics at all and they aren't really good for intense work but they are standard issue by Dell. they look good for this "tablet age". Grade schools around here i see don't even teach typing anymore. I see the new generation using the hunt and peck with their index fingers method. I fear people are going to get slower and slower with their input. It doesn't really advance the cause for keeping traditional keyboards.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: TheQsanity on Thu, 08 August 2013, 04:16:04
Dell must have upped their game. I haven't used one of their scissor switches yet! :))

I think once we have hologram interfaces well lose everything that requires actual touch. :P

I don't think keyboards will fade out anytime soon. Would someone rather steal some plastic garbage or a smooth touchscreeny thingy.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Leslieann on Thu, 08 August 2013, 17:00:46
what saddens me is that i see offices now issue out these really crap mice and keyboards, flat mice and scissor switch keyboards. crap fonts. no ergonomics at all and they aren't really good for intense work but they are standard issue by Dell.
One of my customers brought his employees in early on Black Friday so they could go buy the cheapest laptops they could to replace three 12 year old desktops. It was cheaper by $10 to pay the employees than it was to pay normal price. Seriously, the guy still has a Celeron 533 in the office as a workstation (recently it was upgraded to Office 2010, from Office XP). Those cheap Dells would run rings around every single system in this office and would be an ergonomic and stability upgrade.

It's not that he's broke either, he's a real estate broker who owns well over 300 homes, he just happens to squeak when he walks.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Glod on Thu, 08 August 2013, 17:24:50
what saddens me is that i see offices now issue out these really crap mice and keyboards, flat mice and scissor switch keyboards. crap fonts. no ergonomics at all and they aren't really good for intense work but they are standard issue by Dell.
One of my customers brought his employees in early on Black Friday so they could go buy the cheapest laptops they could to replace three 12 year old desktops. It was cheaper by $10 to pay the employees than it was to pay normal price. Seriously, the guy still has a Celeron 533 in the office as a workstation (recently it was upgraded to Office 2010, from Office XP). Those cheap Dells would run rings around every single system in this office and would be an ergonomic and stability upgrade.

It's not that he's broke either, he's a real estate broker who owns well over 300 homes, he just happens to squeak when he walks.

oh yeah, along with replacing mice and keyboards with crap (they weren't that good to begin with) my main office replaced the workstations purchased in 2008/2009 with these new ones with tiny cases. Problem is the new ones are these pathetic i3 systems with a intel graphics card which is struggling with dual monitor setups that the entire office has. The old systems were E6600 and Q6600 with dedicated ati graphics cards and even in 2013 they were work horses compared to these i3 system. their excuse is that much of our work is done over RDP into our massive server infrastructure; they think its not necessary to have powerful workstations for RDP, Email, Office, Dual Monitor.

ugh

point i guess is, relating to the conversation, I really feel we are going backwards, on input devices, on everything. People attempting to do stuff on tablets that shouldn't be done on tablets including heavy typing, standard keyboards and mice distributed getting cheaper in quality, oh and also what makes me mad is that offices are buying cheaper and cheaper office chairs; they are painful with long hours of use and break under people over 200lbs; i bet in some ways the cheaper chairs are literally killing employees in the long run.

/rant
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Findecanor on Thu, 08 August 2013, 17:31:11
Mm-hmmm.  Writing code would be sooo much better if all motion commands could reduced to "snap the cursor to my eye focus".
I have tried an eye-tracking system where the mouse pointer (not the keyboard cursor) could jump to where you were looking. It felt really weird and unintuitive.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Leslieann on Thu, 08 August 2013, 17:40:53
oh yeah, along with replacing mice and keyboards with crap (they weren't that good to begin with) my main office replaced the workstations purchased in 2008/2009 with these new ones with tiny cases. Problem is the new ones are these pathetic i3 systems with a intel graphics card which is struggling with dual monitor setups that the entire office has.
He himself and a few key employees got those mini itx boxes. JUNK!
The first two didn't last a year, and oh he was pissed when I told him. One needed new ram, the other blew the drive. $70 to replace the memory, which it fried 6 months later. The other he junked because $200 to fix a dead drive in a 9 month old $250 computer was too much for him to stomach. So of course he went back and bought 3 more of them. Yes, they had warranties, but it costs too much to have the systems down for warranty repairs.

Dual screens HA! not in this place. The lucky (and I say that with a straight face) employees get the mini ITX boxes and 19in flat screens.

The most annoying part of it, is that you would think the guy would learn, his home system is a custom built box I built 12 years ago and has run great. He more than got his moneys worth from it, but nope, he buys disposable junk time and time again. He spent $500 on one box alone last year. When you spend as much in repairs per year as you do on the system, something's wrong.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: microsoft windows on Sun, 11 August 2013, 11:38:13
I'VE NEVER BEEN MUCH OF A FAN OF THOSE COMPACT DESKTOP PC'S. THEY ALWAYS LIKE TO GET CLOGGED UP WITH DUST AND THEN THEY DON'T COOL PROPERLY, OFTEN CAUSING COMPONENT FAILURE.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Leslieann on Sun, 11 August 2013, 18:34:55
I'VE NEVER BEEN MUCH OF A FAN OF THOSE COMPACT DESKTOP PC'S. THEY ALWAYS LIKE TO GET CLOGGED UP WITH DUST AND THEN THEY DON'T COOL PROPERLY, OFTEN CAUSING COMPONENT FAILURE.

Believe it or not, size isn't a factor or the problem, cooling depends on how much airflow you can get across the hot surfaces, not how much air is inside the box. The problem with these little boxes is that they're cheap. They put cheap, failure prone components, used small heatsinks and cheap, (hot running) power supplies. Small boxes run fine, and are efficient, when they are engineered properly. The problem with these, is that they aren't. They had to cut corners on every part they could to meet their price point.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hashbaz on Mon, 12 August 2013, 00:32:28
Believe it or not, microsoft windows should in fact never be responded to at face value.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Linkbane on Thu, 15 August 2013, 04:55:15
I don't exactly want to be that guy, but keyboards aren't efficient methods of inputting information, as it is much slower than human speech. Slow, conversational speech is 110-150 wpm according to first glance research, and people speaking very quickly can go easily above 300 wpm.
However, many things such as symbols and programming would be very difficult to adapt to human speech, and as it is our speech-recognition system is slow and inaccurate, so I think keyboards will be around in a non-antique usage for maybe another 10 years if we're lucky.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hashbaz on Thu, 15 August 2013, 14:23:18
Writing and (even more so) editing code by voice command would be tedious, even with perfect and instantaneous speech recognition.  Unless programming changes into a much higher level descriptive activity much more akin to dictating a letter than hand-crafting code, I don't see the keyboard going away.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: fohat.digs on Thu, 15 August 2013, 16:51:38
Blowing out an "initial draft" might be simple, but getting the edits and corrections correct down to the nit .....
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Leslieann on Fri, 16 August 2013, 01:39:04
I don't exactly want to be that guy, but keyboards aren't efficient methods of inputting information, as it is much slower than human speech. Slow, conversational speech is 110-150 wpm according to first glance research, and people speaking very quickly can go easily above 300 wpm.
However, many things such as symbols and programming would be very difficult to adapt to human speech, and as it is our speech-recognition system is slow and inaccurate, so I think keyboards will be around in a non-antique usage for maybe another 10 years if we're lucky.
Try it in a crowded office.

And like I said before, wait till someone walks by and tells "computer, exit and don't save" while you are working on that report due Monday morning. Have a nice weekend.
Or better yet
"computer, format D drive, confirm"


It probably won't be speech recognition that wins at the office, it will be neural sensors.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Linkbane on Fri, 16 August 2013, 01:58:47

Try it in a crowded office.

And like I said before, wait till someone walks by and tells "computer, exit and don't save" while you are working on that report due Monday morning. Have a nice weekend.
Or better yet
"computer, format D drive, confirm"


It probably won't be speech recognition that wins at the office, it will be neural sensors.
[/quote]

Go ahead and slam me and be defensive, it's okay. I understand that people are resistant to change.
First of all, I said 'word processing'. Not that the computer would be controlled by voice, that was a bad assumption. In terms of word processing, again, one would probably use a microphone to isolate noise. However resistant you may be, it's just simple fact that speech is much faster than hands. Most people can't even get to 80 wpm, and even me at my fastest could hardly record a slow talker (130 wpm), and especially not very accurately.

Also, considering that it's the future and all, there will probably be recognition to the point that it's obvious when it's not you talking (and it's not even able to be heard when using a microphone), so something stupid like telling the computer to format the drive, beyond not being recognized, would certainly need a password.

I'm not saying bad things about keyboards, I really like having several and typing. However, I'm not going to write out long chapters in twice or three times the amount of time it would take me to dictate the things to the program.

Also, to hashbaz, I did say that retaining the keyboard for programming would likely be necessary, didn't I?
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hashbaz on Fri, 16 August 2013, 02:04:16
... However, many things such as symbols and programming would be very difficult to adapt to human speech, and as it is our speech-recognition system is slow and inaccurate, so I think keyboards will be around in a non-antique usage for maybe another 10 years if we're lucky.

To me this reads as "despite the difficulties of programming by voice, keyboards will be obsolete in at most 10 years".
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Linkbane on Fri, 16 August 2013, 03:52:28
To me this reads as "despite the difficulties of programming by voice, keyboards will be obsolete in at most 10 years".

It doesn't really matter what it reads to you as. In the end, it's all your own mind bringing up what you think it is, and I can't really change that nor can I change when keyboards become obsolete. Feel free to argue why keyboards won't be obsolete in x years to me or anyone else, it hardly matters.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hashbaz on Fri, 16 August 2013, 03:58:59
Take the chip off your shoulder son, I'm not gonna fight you.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: CommunistWitchDr on Fri, 16 August 2013, 04:30:39
Most people can't even get to 80 wpm, and even me at my fastest could hardly record a slow talker (130 wpm), and especially not very accurately.
 for programming would likely be necessary, didn't I?

Stenotype can reach speeds of over 200 (and in very rare cases over 300) wpm. Faster than most people can comfortably and understandably speak. Though people can speak much faster with practice, and I'm sure that would be more common with voice recognition.

Also, would you want to say everything you type out loud? Everything?



Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: fohat.digs on Fri, 16 August 2013, 09:38:11
Also, would you want to say everything you type out loud? Everything?

This would seem embarrassing, even if I was alone at home.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: jdcarpe on Fri, 16 August 2013, 09:46:06
Google is preparing for screenless computers (http://qz.com/115304/google-is-preparing-for-screenless-computers/)

Quote
There’s nothing new about voice interaction with computers per se. What’s different about Google’s work on the technology is that the company wants to make it as fluid and easy as keyboards and touch screens are now.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Jhors2 on Fri, 16 August 2013, 11:46:10
Not to de-rail the thread with other slightly related things, but I feel even with the uptick of VR lately in the computer world that there will still be the classic computer users that just feel more comfortable typing on a keyboard and using the good ol monitor and mouse.  That may just be me though...
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: neoezekiel on Fri, 16 August 2013, 12:31:58
What do you all think about where keyboards are going to be in the long term? After seeing everybody using smart-phones and tablets nowadays, do you think keyboards are going to go obsolete and be replaced by touch screens?

Not if I can help it, they will have to pry the boards out of my cold dead hands...
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Thimplum on Fri, 16 August 2013, 12:33:53
tp4 says that we're going to get neural implants.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: rowdy on Sat, 17 August 2013, 03:45:38
tp4 says that we're going to get neural implants.

As long as they are shaped like Ergo Dox, we should be fine.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Linkbane on Mon, 19 August 2013, 22:42:52
Stenotype can reach speeds of over 200 (and in very rare cases over 300) wpm. Faster than most people can comfortably and understandably speak. Though people can speak much faster with practice, and I'm sure that would be more common with voice recognition.

Also, would you want to say everything you type out loud? Everything?

Agreed, stenotype is very efficient for recording. However, it does require a great deal of training to reach a level of human speech.
I actually wouldn't mind saying everything I typed, but sometimes I would not like what I say typed. But with a noise-isolation, it shouldn't be too hard.
I'm just trying to refer to the general public. I am sure that a company would rather have all employees able to record words at over 150 and over twice that when speaking quickly. Just look at auctioneers; they're likely trained as much as stenographers or even less, but they can speak at over 600 wpm, completely impossible for typing.

Take the chip off your shoulder son, I'm not gonna fight you.

You try and bait me to an argument by ignoring what I say and then say that I'm trying to fight you. Aren't you supposed to be a "Moderator Supreme", not some argumentative fool using his age as comparison against me? It's funny that some moderator would be wasting their time arguing with users, when I was expressing an opinion. Good job 'moderating'.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hashbaz on Mon, 19 August 2013, 23:03:33
You try and bait me to an argument by ignoring what I say and then say that I'm trying to fight you. Aren't you supposed to be a "Moderator Supreme", not some argumentative fool using his age as comparison against me? It's funny that some moderator would be wasting their time arguing with users, when I was expressing an opinion. Good job 'moderating'.

Chip. On. Shoulder.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: noisyturtle on Tue, 20 August 2013, 00:28:01
'XBOX, PLAY PORNOGRAPHY'
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Linkbane on Tue, 20 August 2013, 01:27:57
Chip. On. Shoulder.

Continue please. I am nonchalant.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hashbaz on Tue, 20 August 2013, 01:54:55
Good!  So you're done being a belligerent ass?

For transcription and brainstorming and shooting off quick emails I agree that good voice recognition would be fabulous.  But for people who write for a living -- novelists, programmers, journalists -- I think that dictation is not a great means of input.  Composition is inherently a start/stop activity with a lot of downtime while thought occurs.  There is a lot of deleting, going back and editing, cursor movement.  Increased WPM is kind of pointless for these activities.  You can edit faster by keypress than by voice.  So I don't think keyboards are going anywhere.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Linkbane on Tue, 20 August 2013, 04:52:12
Good!  So you're done being a belligerent ass?

For transcription and brainstorming and shooting off quick emails I agree that good voice recognition would be fabulous.  But for people who write for a living -- novelists, programmers, journalists -- I think that dictation is not a great means of input.  Composition is inherently a start/stop activity with a lot of downtime while thought occurs.  There is a lot of deleting, going back and editing, cursor movement.  Increased WPM is kind of pointless for these activities.  You can edit faster by keypress than by voice.  So I don't think keyboards are going anywhere.

I see that you begin to speak about my points when I've finished the arguments. If only you could have said this earlier instead of trying to start a flame war, perhaps we could speak cordially. I haven't called you any names, neither should you start the discourtesy.

OT: I'm pretty sure that any novelist or journalist would much prefer a dictation system. I write both poetry and prose, and speaking makes it both easier to record something in your head as well as well as freer in that one is not restricted to a computer; they could walk around a place of inspiration with just a microphone and/or some sort of small screen, such as Google Glass, and compose a novel there. I certainly feel that if I were able to record a poem as it came to mind rather than waiting to get to a computer (or pen/paper for that matter), I would have better writing.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hashbaz on Tue, 20 August 2013, 12:32:53
You can't be ignorant of how rude and overreactive your posts in this thread have been.  You seem intent on taking and giving offense at every opportunity.  The phrase "belligerent ass" is not an empty insult; it's a carefully chosen description of your behavior.

Your one point seems to be that speaking is faster than typing.  But dictation is only one part of writing.  What about editing text?  Adding punctuation?  Correcting mistakes?  This is where a character-based input device excels and a word-based one becomes clunky.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Thimplum on Tue, 20 August 2013, 12:40:42
I think that the keyboard is a good middle ground between efficient editing(paper and pencil) and creation speed(voice dictation).
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Linkbane on Wed, 21 August 2013, 03:24:02
You can't be ignorant of how rude and overreactive your posts in this thread have been.  You seem intent on taking and giving offense at every opportunity.  The phrase "belligerent ass" is not an empty insult; it's a carefully chosen description of your behavior.

Your one point seems to be that speaking is faster than typing.  But dictation is only one part of writing.  What about editing text?  Adding punctuation?  Correcting mistakes?  This is where a character-based input device excels and a word-based one becomes clunky.

Hardly, you seem to be the only one with any issue, and all that you respond with are insults.
Moreover, what irritates me about your behavior is the foolish way in which you attempt to portray facts. In a similar vein, I offer an example.

Your one point seems to be that cars are faster than walking. But speed is only one part of moving. What about building strength? Spiritual improvement? Seeing the environment? This is where walking excels and a car-based becomes clunky.

It's just nonsensical. Obviously having a different device will have certain very specific applications, while the majority is still supplanted. I'm finished being forced to make you digest facts, you can continue to delude nobody further if you wish.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Thimplum on Wed, 21 August 2013, 08:36:09
You can't be ignorant of how rude and overreactive your posts in this thread have been.  You seem intent on taking and giving offense at every opportunity.  The phrase "belligerent ass" is not an empty insult; it's a carefully chosen description of your behavior.

Your one point seems to be that speaking is faster than typing.  But dictation is only one part of writing.  What about editing text?  Adding punctuation?  Correcting mistakes?  This is where a character-based input device excels and a word-based one becomes clunky.

Hardly, you seem to be the only one with any issue, and all that you respond with are insults.
Moreover, what irritates me about your behavior is the foolish way in which you attempt to portray facts. In a similar vein, I offer an example.

Your one point seems to be that cars are faster than walking. But speed is only one part of moving. What about building strength? Spiritual improvement? Seeing the environment? This is where walking excels and a car-based becomes clunky.

It's just nonsensical. Obviously having a different device will have certain very specific applications, while the majority is still supplanted. I'm finished being forced to make you digest facts, you can continue to delude nobody further if you wish.

I'm sick of car-tech analogies. I think that most on this forum, myself included, would agree with hashbaz. And this thread has become an argument between someone with 27 posts and a moderator. Not good.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Halvar on Wed, 21 August 2013, 09:07:42
I see people walk all the time. It doesn't seem to have been replaced by the invention of the car. If you know what I mean.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: MTManiac on Wed, 21 August 2013, 09:38:15
Mm-hmmm.  Writing code would be sooo much better if all motion commands could reduced to "snap the cursor to my eye focus".
I have tried an eye-tracking system where the mouse pointer (not the keyboard cursor) could jump to where you were looking. It felt really weird and unintuitive.

That's because a tracking system like that doesn't know when to move the mouse so it is un-natural.
After working with neural interfaces for about a decade, so fun and yet frustrating at the same time, I can tell you the system needs to know when to move the mouse and when not to. Just like when you are sitting at a keyboard, your eyes move to look at all sorts of things, but your hand doesn't move the mouse everywhere you look, it would be tiresome.
A neural interface mouse will be the first big neural interface product for the mass public.
BUT!!! it will require some massive new algorithms and RosettaStone-esque training for the user before they are as proficient with it vs their hand eye coordination and a physical mouse.
The neural keyboard will be another decade or two after the neural mouse, there are too many input switches and retraining your brain to actuate every one will be INTENSE.
The real issue with neural interfaces is it requires crazy effort from the end user to get crazy results. The lazy plug and play generation won't be able to use the product, so there goes that huge target market. The same problems enthusiast markets face today. If we do see a neural mouse or keyboard it'll be a kickstarter (or whatever they use in 2025 lul) project and not something funded by a big corporation. Although the big corps will be gnashing at their bits to buy up the first company that makes the product.

(Just my opinion)
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: fohat.digs on Wed, 21 August 2013, 19:43:17
There is a lot of deleting, going back and editing, cursor movement.

I think that this is the stumbling block.

What about the fact that many people like to work with their hands? Carpentry, for example, can be a job or a hobby.

Art? I can derive considerable satisfaction and enjoyment when I see or hold something that I have crafted something physically.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Linkbane on Thu, 22 August 2013, 06:35:00
What about the fact that many people like to work with their hands? Carpentry, for example, can be a job or a hobby.

Well, when information recording becomes a hobby and not a job, I'm sure keyboards will make a resurgence. I'm not saying that some people won't want to use keyboards anymore, I just think that it's unreasonable to think that most people would want to use it when they could use their voice instead.
I'm keeping my boards. 99% of my friends probably won't.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: audioave10 on Sat, 24 August 2013, 00:19:00
I think things are getting better all the time for mechanical keyboards. Example:
Two or three years ago, I could not buy (or find) a mechanical keyboard at NewEgg. We build gaming PC's constantly here and that's where all my parts are bought. Now, I have the choices of Ducky, Corsair and Cooler Master right from NewEgg. There are also other places to buy from too that weren't around 3 years ago. The gaming sites of Overclock.net and many others are full of threads about the almighty mechanical keyboard.
I see things improving myself. Lets hope it stays that way.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: davkol on Sat, 24 August 2013, 04:19:45
I see things improving myself. Lets hope it stays that way.

I fail to see it. Maybe we don't have the numbers yet, but I haven't noticed any notable breakthrough in impact on environment and computer-related injuries.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: meiosis on Sat, 24 August 2013, 04:23:11
I invested in two expensive Korean paperweights
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: TheeCOoon on Thu, 29 August 2013, 23:47:20
Only if i could connect my keyboard to my ipad. Then keyboards will last FOREVER
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Thimplum on Fri, 30 August 2013, 08:23:03
I invested in two expensive Korean paperweights

Can I have one? :)
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: ynrozturk on Fri, 30 August 2013, 10:17:44
I do not want to think of a life without a keyboard.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: microsoft windows on Fri, 30 August 2013, 11:49:51
Guess that's a good reason to buy more keyboards!
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Folio on Fri, 30 August 2013, 13:15:42
The keyboard will not be totally replaced until we have direct neural interfaces so we can think to type. Voice will never catch on because people don't want to say what they're typing and touch screen is impractical for anything serious.

Though the most serious typists don't use keyboards anyway, steno all the way at the top.

Stenographs could very well be replaced by voice input recorders in court room settings and depositions. The only problem is how the machine will recognize and label whoever is speaking. Maybe a voice recognition test at the beginning of every case could help ID people's differing voices and tones.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Findecanor on Fri, 30 August 2013, 17:24:53
This was posted around the web a couple of days ago:
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: abdulmuhsee on Sat, 31 August 2013, 18:00:55
The problem with voice recognition is the fact that human vocal chords have a limit as to how much they can comfortably handle within compressed periods of time.

I've narrated for a couple audiobooks, and I can say that my throat was most definitely starting to feel coarse by the tenth page during a recording session.  I would much rather type tens of pages than speak tens of pages out loud, since it can be done so without as much strain on the body.  Try reading a chapter of a novel to your significant other or child and see how far you can get before it gets tiring.

Also, there are many environments where data entry cannot possibly be done via human voice.  For example, if I am a teacher in a classroom and need to get some data entry done while students are working on an assignment or test, it could not be done in the same room with voice recognition.

In short, unless there is some sort of unbelievable, practical technology which has not yet been mentioned in this thread (neural implants being impractical/science fiction), then I cannot possibly see how keyboards would ever become obsolete.  I'm willing to entertain the possibility for fun, but not as a serious argument unless there's an input device I haven't yet considered.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Leslieann on Sun, 01 September 2013, 06:36:09
The problem with voice recognition is the fact that human vocal chords have a limit as to how much they can comfortably handle within compressed periods of time.
Good point as well.
I don't think most people realize how hard that is on your vocal chords. Even an extended work day can tax your voice.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Linkbane on Sun, 15 September 2013, 18:56:11
In short, unless there is some sort of unbelievable, practical technology which has not yet been mentioned in this thread (neural implants being impractical/science fiction), then I cannot possibly see how keyboards would ever become obsolete.  I'm willing to entertain the possibility for fun, but not as a serious argument unless there's an input device I haven't yet considered.

Wonderful. The bias is incredibly arrogant in how you speak; how many people would ever type more than ten pages in a single day? Even authors are hardly likely to write half that much in a single day; there are options far more efficient (e.g. stenography) than typing without the kinds of outlandish ideas that you propose. Just like how pressing a key three times for a letter is impractical on the phone, the most efficient way to record words and type will certainly not be through pressing a one or two keys for a letter, as stenography is far, far faster than typing, with well trained typists in the mid-300's of wpm, at or above talking speed. It's hardly unbelievable and teaching a data entry specialist to type on a stenography machine is more efficient than hiring three to type at the same speed on a keyboard.

It's just foolish to assume that a keyboard is the best solution, just because we're used to it. I would liken it to horse riders saying that without some form of teleportation or rocket, you couldn't be better than a horse, ignoring the fact that a car can go many, many times faster and that the problem with them is that they make them bored from sitting. A keyboard is hardly the most optimized tool.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: abdulmuhsee on Sun, 15 September 2013, 20:00:37
...teaching a data entry specialist to type on a stenography machine is more efficient than hiring three to type at the same speed on a keyboard.

It's just foolish to assume that a keyboard is the best solution, just because we're used to it.

So keyboards should be replaced by stenography machines?  If it can just as easily produce the full spectrum of language, but at faster speeds, then I don't see why not.  I wonder why they don't teach stenography instead of keyboarding in school by now?

I don't entirely understand how a stenography machine works (how could I without special training?), but from what I've read, you need to "memorize" certain combinations of letters that represent common phrases you are likely to hear.  For example, T K P W O G = Guilty or Not Guilty and T K P WR A R PL = Grievous Bodily Harm.

Seems incredibly confusing to me, and that's most likely why it has never even been proposed as being a standard data entry device.  If I was writing a story or a paper and looking for a specific description, like melancholy, to make a scene or an argument "pop," how many hours of training would it require for me to understand the combination of letters I need to use in order to reproduce that word? 

According to various court reporter training programs I looked up, it can require multiple years to be proficient in using a stenography machine.  A keyboard, on the other hand, almost anyone can use, regardless of how fast or slow they can type.  Does taking 2-4 years out of your life to learn basic stenography skills really sound practical as a standard data entry solution for the majority of people?

It just doesn't seem practical for your average office worker or guy typing in a website at home, and I'd bet good money on the keyboard remaining as the best solution for the masses.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Linkbane on Sun, 15 September 2013, 23:59:01
...teaching a data entry specialist to type on a stenography machine is more efficient than hiring three to type at the same speed on a keyboard.

It's just foolish to assume that a keyboard is the best solution, just because we're used to it.

So keyboards should be replaced by stenography machines?  If it can just as easily produce the full spectrum of language, but at faster speeds, then I don't see why not.  I wonder why they don't teach stenography instead of keyboarding in school by now?

I don't entirely understand how a stenography machine works (how could I without special training?), but from what I've read, you need to "memorize" certain combinations of letters that represent common phrases you are likely to hear.  For example, T K P W O G = Guilty or Not Guilty and T K P WR A R PL = Grievous Bodily Harm.

Seems incredibly confusing to me, and that's most likely why it has never even been proposed as being a standard data entry device.  If I was writing a story or a paper and looking for a specific description, like melancholy, to make a scene or an argument "pop," how many hours of training would it require for me to understand the combination of letters I need to use in order to reproduce that word? 

According to various court reporter training programs I looked up, it can require multiple years to be proficient in using a stenography machine.  A keyboard, on the other hand, almost anyone can use, regardless of how fast or slow they can type.  Does taking 2-4 years out of your life to learn basic stenography skills really sound practical as a standard data entry solution for the majority of people?

It just doesn't seem practical for your average office worker or guy typing in a website at home, and I'd bet good money on the keyboard remaining as the best solution for the masses.

The fact that a stenography machine confuses you is hardly a reason to not use it. Again, looking at it objectively, a keyboard is not the most efficient way to enter data, as you conceded. For the masses, it is cheap and therefore accessible, but the more expensive equipment always becomes cheaper. I guarantee that over 99% of people enter in less words than would be uncomfortable on a voice transcriber.
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: hashbaz on Mon, 16 September 2013, 00:02:53
Heya Linkbane long time no see! How have you been?
Title: Re: Long-term Fate of the Keyboard
Post by: Linkbane on Mon, 16 September 2013, 00:43:19
Heya Linkbane long time no see! How have you been?

Very well, I've been promoted to chief thread extender.  :thumb: