Long-term Fate of the Keyboard

[microsoft windows]

What do you all think about where keyboards are going to be in the long term? After seeing everybody using smart-phones and tablets nowadays, do you think keyboards are going to go obsolete and be replaced by touch screens?

[esoomenona]

Even if they were, there would still be us, using outdated input devices.

[alaricljs]

Casual home users may move to tablets or make a laptop their primary keyboard usage.  Business users and home users that do a lot of typing will still want a real keyboard.

[Grim Fandango]

I agree that for casual use , sleek and compact solutions will likely be the most popular. For business use and people who value good input devices there will still be physical keys. For now it is still the solution that works best with the human anatomy.

[hashbaz]

I have a hard time believing that touchscreens will ever be as accurate and fast as inputting text with physical buttons.  People who type for a living (writers, programmers, IT professionals, pro gamers) will keep keyboards alive.

[CommunistWitchDr]

The keyboard will not be totally replaced until we have direct neural interfaces so we can think to type. Voice will never catch on because people don't want to say what they're typing and touch screen is impractical for anything serious.

Though the most serious typists don't use keyboards anyway, steno all the way at the top.

[rowdy]

For end users, the touch screen is already taking hold.  For many people, a table is their only computing device.

For programmers, we still need a keyboard.  Neural input will have to improve markedly before it will be of use for programming.

[baldgye]

For end users, the touch screen is already taking hold.  For many people, a table is their only computing device.

For programmers, we still need a keyboard.  Neural input will have to improve markedly before it will be of use for programming.

I think for anyone actually working on a machine a proper keyboard will be required for a long time to come becasue it's just so much better than nearly every other kind of input.

[Leslieann]

The keyboard will not be totally replaced until we have direct neural interfaces so we can think to type. Voice will never catch on because people don't want to say what they're typing and touch screen is impractical for anything serious.

Though the most serious typists don't use keyboards anyway, steno all the way at the top.

This.
Any job needing significant data input will have keyboards for a long time, the keyboard will outlast the home PC (PC, not home computer, but this is a discussion for another time).

Voice was dead on arrival for offices, imagine 50 people all trying to voice to their computer while others are on the phone. It's also a recipe for disaster. Walk into an "enemies" cubicle and just tell it to close document, ignore changes... Their whole day is shot. Or how about working while your spouse is sleeping next to you? The Minority Report screen was also dead on arrival (yes, they exist). It's a hassle to use, much less see.  Even touch screens on desktops and notebooks are struggling, it's awkward to from keyboard to touch and back, too many different planes of use. All of these "improvements" look great on paper and on movie screens, but unless they can input information better or easier, they are dead on arrival.

Touch screens are taking off on tablets due to convenience, however, many, many tablets are sitting idle because people have figured out they aren't meant for daily computing. You need a keyboard for data entry (and a mouse helps too), which is why there are so many keyboard/folio cases. Voice works on phones, but again, this is due to convenience, the device is too small for even the poor typing you do on a tablet. How many times have you seen people talking to Siri on their Ipad? Voice works on a phone due to limited abilities, and size. However, all of this is in a transition phase, so don't count on it all working as it does now in the future. Everything will become more coalesced and will alter the input/output landscape.

It's convenience, not speed or accuracy. Keep in mind these devices have less data coming back out at the same time. The best example is how they use computers on Star Trek, they communicate by voice with the computer, but it's limited information that is pre-sorted, when they need to input or view larger amounts of data, they still use a terminal with a keyboard.


Bottom line, don't count out the keyboard or mouse. Even if your computer disappears, the mouse and keyboard will stick around for a while because they are the easiest and most convenient input method for large amounts of data.

[fohat.digs]

I totally agree with Leslieann on the keyboard.

I probably agree about the mouse, too, but I hate mice and always have. The alternatives are worse, although handy in specific limited situations.

Please, somebody, make a better manual pointing device!

[noisyturtle]

I could see innovation for the mouse in the near future that could replace the standard, but keyboards allow so much variation of input reliant on the users direct knowledge and use, I don't see anything directly succeeding it any time soon unless I can think lines of code and have it appear on-screen formatted and written the way I intended.

Also as moose stated, we will always be here supporting outdated tech anyway.

[do_Og@n]

I don't know if it's our generation but I could never use a touch device on my computer. I've always been the type of person to want to touch and feel what I am typing out. If there was a mechanical keyboard I could use on my phone I would.

I can only see the voice technology working if it was mapped to voice recognition. Even then it would drive me nuts to talk to my computer....I say to many things that shouldn't be typed (depending on how long the day feels).

Well put Leslieann!!!

[davkol]

The keyboard will not be totally replaced until we have direct neural interfaces so we can think to type. Voice will never catch on because people don't want to say what they're typing and touch screen is impractical for anything serious.

Though the most serious typists don't use keyboards anyway, steno all the way at the top.

This.
Any job needing significant data input will have keyboards for a long time, the keyboard will outlast the home PC (PC, not home computer, but this is a discussion for another time).

Voice was dead on arrival for offices, imagine 50 people all trying to voice to their computer while others are on the phone. It's also a recipe for disaster. Walk into an "enemies" cubicle and just tell it to close document, ignore changes... Their whole day is shot. Or how about working while your spouse is sleeping next to you? The Minority Report screen was also dead on arrival (yes, they exist). It's a hassle to use, much less see.  Even touch screens on desktops and notebooks are struggling, it's awkward to from keyboard to touch and back, too many different planes of use. All of these "improvements" look great on paper and on movie screens, but unless they can input information better or easier, they are dead on arrival.

Touch screens are taking off on tablets due to convenience, however, many, many tablets are sitting idle because people have figured out they aren't meant for daily computing. You need a keyboard for data entry (and a mouse helps too), which is why there are so many keyboard/folio cases. Voice works on phones, but again, this is due to convenience, the device is too small for even the poor typing you do on a tablet. How many times have you seen people talking to Siri on their Ipad? Voice works on a phone due to limited abilities, and size. However, all of this is in a transition phase, so don't count on it all working as it does now in the future. Everything will become more coalesced and will alter the input/output landscape.

It's convenience, not speed or accuracy. Keep in mind these devices have less data coming back out at the same time. The best example is how they use computers on Star Trek, they communicate by voice with the computer, but it's limited information that is pre-sorted, when they need to input or view larger amounts of data, they still use a terminal with a keyboard.


Bottom line, don't count out the keyboard or mouse. Even if your computer disappears, the mouse and keyboard will stick around for a while because they are the easiest and most convenient input method for large amounts of data.

You ignore laryngophones, haptics,...

[Findecanor]

The Minority Report screen was also dead on arrival (yes, they exist).

I still would not say that it exists, because the solutions are yet so primitive.
Sure, there is free-air gesture recognition (Leap Motion, MS Kinect,etc) and there is eye-tracking (Tobii, etc), but they need to be combined to achieve eye-hand-screen coordination. Sony owns the patent for that, and I don't see a product from them in this area.

Then for a shift to occur, there needs to be operating system support, applications, and hardware that is good enough over a critical threshold.
In the case of touch screens, Apple was able to set the ball rolling only because different types of tech had evolved to be good enough. For instance, a resistive touchscreen or a touchscreen with only one touch-point was not enough, a proper IPS LCD display with capacitative multitouch sensing was critical for the iPhone's success.

[kenmai9]

People still use the Model M 30 years later..

[pixel5]

GAMERS.

Gamers will never grow out of the need for physical buttons.

And if they do, my keyboards are tested to 50 million actuations so I think I'm good for a while

[TheSoulhunter]

Voice Input:

+ Potential for fast input
+ Mic doesn't cost more than a keyboard
- Software needs training to minimize errors (or work at all in case people speak some dialect etc.)
- Doesn't work well in loud environments
- Doesn't work for "typing while talking" scenarios (call-center/office/etc.)
- Doesn't work for confidential stuff "Enter Password! 842941!"
- Doesn't work for people with speaking disorders


Neural Interfaces:

+ Potential for very fast input
+ Works around most problems mentioned above
- Probably expensive, no matter how far in future keyboards will be cheaper
- Probably the software needs a lot of training to work well with a given person
- You don't want to type everything you think "Dear... Uhm... What was his name? Bill? Brian? I think it was Brian... Live of Brian...Fuuu, what I'm typing!?"


Touchscreens:

+ Possibly easier navigation (with the right UI) as it acts as a mouse replacement as well
- Typing for prolonged sessions causes strain and pain (no shock absorbing...)
- Touch-typing gets much much much harder (on old cellphones I could write SMS while having it in my trouser-pocket, try that with current touchscreen phones!)
- Not very precise and sometimes even laggy (tho this might change in future, but it will probably never match a KB in these terms)


I guess we will keep keyboards for long long time... :3

[davkol]

Voice Input:

- Doesn't work well in loud environments

Again, what do *pilots* in the military use? Laryngophones. Obviously, planes are loud.

[hashbaz]

Voice dictation is great for a lot of things, but I don't see it ever being a general input mechanism.  Ditto stenographic keyboards.

[Leslieann]

The Minority Report screen was also dead on arrival (yes, they exist).

I still would not say that it exists, because the solutions are yet so primitive.

It's more than that, you are looking at light on a glass screen with no backing, have fun reading small text on that. Ever notice how dark it was in their office, that was the only way you could see the screen. Instead of open and airy, it looked more like a dungeon.

Go look at screen shots of the movie, you will notice there is almost no text ever on the screen that you can see. You will also notice that when what is on the screen is important, a black backdrop is suddenly behind it. Also, the resolution stunk because like I said, small text was illegible. Forget how to interact with it, it was a stupid idea before you hand ever even went to touch it.

And then there is the actual use of it, try holding your arms up like that for 8 hours.  I guarantee you, in a year, your arms will look like a pro wrestler. Just make sure you keep them both up evenly, or people may start asking how hairy your palms are.

- You don't want to type everything you think "Dear... Uhm... What was his name? Bill? Brian? I think it was Brian... Live of Brian...Fuuu, what I'm typing!?"

)
Just think, if you hate your boss, you wouldn't have to work for him for long.
"Thursday schedule:Lunch with your hag of a wife, and if you knew how much I hate you, you would have fired me ages ago. I wonder if I could spike his coffee and sneak out early on Friday. Cr@p here he comes, act busy."

Again, what do *pilots* in the military use? Laryngophones. Obviously, planes are loud.

Back in the 50's and maybe some Russian planes maybe, most haven't used them in ages. I know the U.S. certainly hasn't.

[fohat.digs]

This afternoon, I forgot my digital camera and needed to take some important photos in bright sunlight using my "smart" phone (Samsung Galaxy).

Granted, I did not have my reading glasses, either, but I ended up taking retarded videos that started and stopped at random unexpected times.

I could not even see the screen, anyway, and had to simply guess whatever I was shooting.

There is a reasonable argument for having a little metal and plastic rectangle that can "do everything" but sometimes it is just too complex for a simple but important straightforward task.

Typing text is both and functional and sensual undertaking. Don't make me give up my wonderful keyboard.

[TheSoulhunter]

Voice Input:

- Doesn't work well in loud environments

Again, what do *pilots* in the military use? Laryngophones. Obviously, planes are loud.

But you have to wear that thing all day, or put it on/off each time you wanna enter text, sounds annoying,
and I guess the acceptance as standard input device for text would be rather low...

[hoggy]

Please, somebody, make a better manual pointing device!

Yeah, all I ask is for someone to take eye-tracking a little further and work out the position of my eyes, where they are pointing and then triangulate that with the tip of my finger so I can point at text without having to touch the screen.  Would pay a chunk of cash for it.

[davkol]

Voice Input:

- Doesn't work well in loud environments

Again, what do *pilots* in the military use? Laryngophones. Obviously, planes are loud.

But you have to wear that thing all day, or put it on/off each time you wanna enter text, sounds annoying,
and I guess the acceptance as standard input device for text would be rather low...

Throat microphones are made as phone accessories. Unfortunately, quality is kinda lacking in this case, but I wouldn't be surprised if people adopted it as some did in case of Google Glass, although some wouldn't wear glasses otherwise. Or it should be rather easy to implant.

[hashbaz]

Yeah, all I ask is for someone to take eye-tracking a little further and work out the position of my eyes, where they are pointing and then triangulate that with the tip of my finger so I can point at text without having to touch the screen.  Would pay a chunk of cash for it.

Mm-hmmm.  Writing code would be sooo much better if all motion commands could reduced to "snap the cursor to my eye focus".

[TheQsanity]

Smartphones hurt my thumbs when playing games. I press way harder than I need to.

[Glod]

i think tactile input devices are going to take many decades before they will go away or even longer, but will a revolutionary tactile input device sometime replace the traditional keyboard? its possible....

what saddens me is that i see offices now issue out these really crap mice and keyboards, flat mice and scissor switch keyboards. crap fonts. no ergonomics at all and they aren't really good for intense work but they are standard issue by Dell. they look good for this "tablet age". Grade schools around here i see don't even teach typing anymore. I see the new generation using the hunt and peck with their index fingers method. I fear people are going to get slower and slower with their input. It doesn't really advance the cause for keeping traditional keyboards.

[TheQsanity]

Dell must have upped their game. I haven't used one of their scissor switches yet! )

I think once we have hologram interfaces well lose everything that requires actual touch.

I don't think keyboards will fade out anytime soon. Would someone rather steal some plastic garbage or a smooth touchscreeny thingy.

[Leslieann]

what saddens me is that i see offices now issue out these really crap mice and keyboards, flat mice and scissor switch keyboards. crap fonts. no ergonomics at all and they aren't really good for intense work but they are standard issue by Dell.

One of my customers brought his employees in early on Black Friday so they could go buy the cheapest laptops they could to replace three 12 year old desktops. It was cheaper by $10 to pay the employees than it was to pay normal price. Seriously, the guy still has a Celeron 533 in the office as a workstation (recently it was upgraded to Office 2010, from Office XP). Those cheap Dells would run rings around every single system in this office and would be an ergonomic and stability upgrade.

It's not that he's broke either, he's a real estate broker who owns well over 300 homes, he just happens to squeak when he walks.

[Glod]

what saddens me is that i see offices now issue out these really crap mice and keyboards, flat mice and scissor switch keyboards. crap fonts. no ergonomics at all and they aren't really good for intense work but they are standard issue by Dell.

One of my customers brought his employees in early on Black Friday so they could go buy the cheapest laptops they could to replace three 12 year old desktops. It was cheaper by $10 to pay the employees than it was to pay normal price. Seriously, the guy still has a Celeron 533 in the office as a workstation (recently it was upgraded to Office 2010, from Office XP). Those cheap Dells would run rings around every single system in this office and would be an ergonomic and stability upgrade.

It's not that he's broke either, he's a real estate broker who owns well over 300 homes, he just happens to squeak when he walks.

oh yeah, along with replacing mice and keyboards with crap (they weren't that good to begin with) my main office replaced the workstations purchased in 2008/2009 with these new ones with tiny cases. Problem is the new ones are these pathetic i3 systems with a intel graphics card which is struggling with dual monitor setups that the entire office has. The old systems were E6600 and Q6600 with dedicated ati graphics cards and even in 2013 they were work horses compared to these i3 system. their excuse is that much of our work is done over RDP into our massive server infrastructure; they think its not necessary to have powerful workstations for RDP, Email, Office, Dual Monitor.

ugh

point i guess is, relating to the conversation, I really feel we are going backwards, on input devices, on everything. People attempting to do stuff on tablets that shouldn't be done on tablets including heavy typing, standard keyboards and mice distributed getting cheaper in quality, oh and also what makes me mad is that offices are buying cheaper and cheaper office chairs; they are painful with long hours of use and break under people over 200lbs; i bet in some ways the cheaper chairs are literally killing employees in the long run.

/rant

[Findecanor]

Mm-hmmm.  Writing code would be sooo much better if all motion commands could reduced to "snap the cursor to my eye focus".

I have tried an eye-tracking system where the mouse pointer (not the keyboard cursor) could jump to where you were looking. It felt really weird and unintuitive.

[Leslieann]

oh yeah, along with replacing mice and keyboards with crap (they weren't that good to begin with) my main office replaced the workstations purchased in 2008/2009 with these new ones with tiny cases. Problem is the new ones are these pathetic i3 systems with a intel graphics card which is struggling with dual monitor setups that the entire office has.

He himself and a few key employees got those mini itx boxes. JUNK!
The first two didn't last a year, and oh he was pissed when I told him. One needed new ram, the other blew the drive. $70 to replace the memory, which it fried 6 months later. The other he junked because $200 to fix a dead drive in a 9 month old $250 computer was too much for him to stomach. So of course he went back and bought 3 more of them. Yes, they had warranties, but it costs too much to have the systems down for warranty repairs.

Dual screens HA! not in this place. The lucky (and I say that with a straight face) employees get the mini ITX boxes and 19in flat screens.

The most annoying part of it, is that you would think the guy would learn, his home system is a custom built box I built 12 years ago and has run great. He more than got his moneys worth from it, but nope, he buys disposable junk time and time again. He spent $500 on one box alone last year. When you spend as much in repairs per year as you do on the system, something's wrong.

[microsoft windows]

I'VE NEVER BEEN MUCH OF A FAN OF THOSE COMPACT DESKTOP PC'S. THEY ALWAYS LIKE TO GET CLOGGED UP WITH DUST AND THEN THEY DON'T COOL PROPERLY, OFTEN CAUSING COMPONENT FAILURE.

[Leslieann]

I'VE NEVER BEEN MUCH OF A FAN OF THOSE COMPACT DESKTOP PC'S. THEY ALWAYS LIKE TO GET CLOGGED UP WITH DUST AND THEN THEY DON'T COOL PROPERLY, OFTEN CAUSING COMPONENT FAILURE.

Believe it or not, size isn't a factor or the problem, cooling depends on how much airflow you can get across the hot surfaces, not how much air is inside the box. The problem with these little boxes is that they're cheap. They put cheap, failure prone components, used small heatsinks and cheap, (hot running) power supplies. Small boxes run fine, and are efficient, when they are engineered properly. The problem with these, is that they aren't. They had to cut corners on every part they could to meet their price point.

[hashbaz]

Believe it or not, microsoft windows should in fact never be responded to at face value.

[Linkbane]

I don't exactly want to be that guy, but keyboards aren't efficient methods of inputting information, as it is much slower than human speech. Slow, conversational speech is 110-150 wpm according to first glance research, and people speaking very quickly can go easily above 300 wpm.
However, many things such as symbols and programming would be very difficult to adapt to human speech, and as it is our speech-recognition system is slow and inaccurate, so I think keyboards will be around in a non-antique usage for maybe another 10 years if we're lucky.

[hashbaz]

Writing and (even more so) editing code by voice command would be tedious, even with perfect and instantaneous speech recognition.  Unless programming changes into a much higher level descriptive activity much more akin to dictating a letter than hand-crafting code, I don't see the keyboard going away.

[fohat.digs]

Blowing out an "initial draft" might be simple, but getting the edits and corrections correct down to the nit .....

[Leslieann]

I don't exactly want to be that guy, but keyboards aren't efficient methods of inputting information, as it is much slower than human speech. Slow, conversational speech is 110-150 wpm according to first glance research, and people speaking very quickly can go easily above 300 wpm.
However, many things such as symbols and programming would be very difficult to adapt to human speech, and as it is our speech-recognition system is slow and inaccurate, so I think keyboards will be around in a non-antique usage for maybe another 10 years if we're lucky.

Try it in a crowded office.

And like I said before, wait till someone walks by and tells "computer, exit and don't save" while you are working on that report due Monday morning. Have a nice weekend.
Or better yet
"computer, format D drive, confirm"


It probably won't be speech recognition that wins at the office, it will be neural sensors.

[Linkbane]

Try it in a crowded office.

And like I said before, wait till someone walks by and tells "computer, exit and don't save" while you are working on that report due Monday morning. Have a nice weekend.
Or better yet
"computer, format D drive, confirm"


It probably won't be speech recognition that wins at the office, it will be neural sensors.
[/quote]

Go ahead and slam me and be defensive, it's okay. I understand that people are resistant to change.
First of all, I said 'word processing'. Not that the computer would be controlled by voice, that was a bad assumption. In terms of word processing, again, one would probably use a microphone to isolate noise. However resistant you may be, it's just simple fact that speech is much faster than hands. Most people can't even get to 80 wpm, and even me at my fastest could hardly record a slow talker (130 wpm), and especially not very accurately.

Also, considering that it's the future and all, there will probably be recognition to the point that it's obvious when it's not you talking (and it's not even able to be heard when using a microphone), so something stupid like telling the computer to format the drive, beyond not being recognized, would certainly need a password.

I'm not saying bad things about keyboards, I really like having several and typing. However, I'm not going to write out long chapters in twice or three times the amount of time it would take me to dictate the things to the program.

Also, to hashbaz, I did say that retaining the keyboard for programming would likely be necessary, didn't I?

[hashbaz]

... However, many things such as symbols and programming would be very difficult to adapt to human speech, and as it is our speech-recognition system is slow and inaccurate, so I think keyboards will be around in a non-antique usage for maybe another 10 years if we're lucky.

To me this reads as "despite the difficulties of programming by voice, keyboards will be obsolete in at most 10 years".

[Linkbane]

To me this reads as "despite the difficulties of programming by voice, keyboards will be obsolete in at most 10 years".

It doesn't really matter what it reads to you as. In the end, it's all your own mind bringing up what you think it is, and I can't really change that nor can I change when keyboards become obsolete. Feel free to argue why keyboards won't be obsolete in x years to me or anyone else, it hardly matters.

[hashbaz]

Take the chip off your shoulder son, I'm not gonna fight you.

[CommunistWitchDr]

Most people can't even get to 80 wpm, and even me at my fastest could hardly record a slow talker (130 wpm), and especially not very accurately.
 for programming would likely be necessary, didn't I?

Stenotype can reach speeds of over 200 (and in very rare cases over 300) wpm. Faster than most people can comfortably and understandably speak. Though people can speak much faster with practice, and I'm sure that would be more common with voice recognition.

Also, would you want to say everything you type out loud? Everything?

[fohat.digs]

Also, would you want to say everything you type out loud? Everything?

This would seem embarrassing, even if I was alone at home.

[jdcarpe]

Google is preparing for screenless computers

There’s nothing new about voice interaction with computers per se. What’s different about Google’s work on the technology is that the company wants to make it as fluid and easy as keyboards and touch screens are now.

[Jhors2]

Not to de-rail the thread with other slightly related things, but I feel even with the uptick of VR lately in the computer world that there will still be the classic computer users that just feel more comfortable typing on a keyboard and using the good ol monitor and mouse.  That may just be me though...

[neoezekiel]

What do you all think about where keyboards are going to be in the long term? After seeing everybody using smart-phones and tablets nowadays, do you think keyboards are going to go obsolete and be replaced by touch screens?

Not if I can help it, they will have to pry the boards out of my cold dead hands...

[Thimplum]

tp4 says that we're going to get neural implants.

[rowdy]

tp4 says that we're going to get neural implants.

As long as they are shaped like Ergo Dox, we should be fine.