Brink of war between South and North Korea eminent ?

[Moogle Stiltzkin]

For those who don't know, south korea did some military exercises in Yeonpyeong island when the NK decided to retaliate by firing artilery fire onto the island killing a few people military and civilian. The casualties may have been few, but the act was despicable nevertheless.

Now it seems that SK is going to proceed with another round of military exercises on the same island. NK is again threatening to repeat what happened if they carried out with the drill.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/12/17/north.korea.military.threat/index.html?hpt=T1


I don't doubt that if SK proceed, NK will definitely shell Yeonpyeong again. And SK's president has already clearly stated if they did that, they would retaliate with much more force, air strikes to be specific.

So the question is will SK back down; or will the war reignite where it left off ?

The exercises, which will start Monday and end Friday, will take place off coasts on all sides of the country, the South Korean agency reported. None are scheduled near the Yellow Sea islands south of the maritime border with North Korea, defense officials said, but more locations could be added to the list.

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/12/13/south.korea.drills/index.html?iref=obinsite


Yeonpyeong artilery drill to resume soon

SEOUL, Dec. 16 (Xinhua) -- South Korea will soon carry out a live fire artillery drill on the island shelled last month by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced Thursday.

The planned drill will be conducted in waters south-west of Yeonpyeong island near the disputed western maritime border between the two Koreas on a selected day from Dec. 18-21 depending on weather conditions, JCS said in a statement.

The routine exercise is a legitimate one that abides by the armistice agreement signed at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, and will be made public, JCS said.

The firing exercise was canceled after the DPRK bombarded Yeonpyeong on Nov. 23 in what Seoul said was an unprovoked attack, killing two marines and two civilians.

The DPRK claimed the attack was for self-defense and provoked by South Korean shelling near the disputed sea border it never acknowledged.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-12/16/c_13651769.htm



I do think that Kim Jong and his ilk definitely need to be toppled sooner better than later (considering they may still have a Nuke; and maybe making more).

But the SK capital has artilerys aimed at it. So there will certainly be huge casualties. It would be very demoralizing if when the war starts, SK already loses their capital after being blasted to kingdom come.



And this is hardly the scary part about SK and NK fighting each other. The scary thing is how will China react ?

The US is strongly allied with SK and will definitely assist them. But will China get involved If they do, it could be the start of a WW3.

I may not like how China runs their country as they have a rotating elite telling everyone else how to live (i believe in a democracy). But at least they are involved with the world economically and everyone seems to be more interested in making money and bettering their lives rather than being hostile  provokers like North Korea is.

Also will Taiwan take advantage of the situation and declare independence ?? That would certainly cause ww3. However i am highly doubtful this would happen.

Japan also seems to have concerns about the Chinese besides the North Koreans, which is why Japan is modernizing their self defense force.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/12/16/japan.military.guidelines/index.html?hpt=T2

So as you can see there is a worrisome trend of tension going on in that region :/


Here is an assessment of military strength for NK and SK
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/24/north.korea.capability/index.html?iref=allsearch



Pros for the war

1. finally the kim jong + his elite of dictators will be toppled.
2. their citizens can finally stop being brainwashed and live in such a poor environment. Lots of human abuse and starvation in NK; according to NK defectors. Refer to youtube for more info.


Cons

1. loss of human life is never something good. I believe that most NKs have been brainwashed by Kim Jong's propaganda that everyone is out to get them, when in reality Kim Jong and his elite have been preying on NK to support their extravagant life styles and military might to protect their status quo; while many NKs starve and live in poor conditions. So these people will be the ones to be the meat fodder for Kim Jong and his elites :/

2. The capital city Seol is probably going to be decimated :/ How soon can their citizens reach the bunkers; and how durable are they ? But the fact remains if war happens Seol will be dust whatever the outcome of the war :/

3. I doubt the Chinese want war either. Bad for business. Same could be said for Japan, South Korea, etc etc. Probably won't matter to North Korea since they are already under economic sanctions. NK has got nothing to lose; except maybe Kim Jong will probably be over throned; which confuses me why is he provoking the SK's into action ?

4. worse case scenario a WW3. Hopefully it doesn't happen.

5. Nukes are used. The first country to use a  nuke will be attacked by everyone. I doubt the Chinese would help NK if they used a nuke. The US have said if NK used nukes; they would nuke NK in defense of SK.

6. South Koreans may not like taking in a huge swarm of poor NKs. Even if all goes well and SK wins; there may still be social problems between NK and SK citizens :/ I guess the exceptions would be reunification between NK and SK families separated by the war.

[itlnstln]

Maybe if you speculate enough one way or the other, it'll happen.

[Soarer]

China would not be pleased, it'd be bad for business lol
NK can't afford to annoy China too much!

[keyboardlover]

China would not defend NK as it would not be in their best financial interests to do so. This has already been pretty much proven by reports of China distancing themselves from NK. WW3 will not happen from this. NK is completely isolated.

[Moogle Stiltzkin]

China would not defend NK as it would not be in their best financial interests to do so. This has already been pretty much proven by reports of China distancing themselves from NK. WW3 will not happen from this. NK is completely isolated.

I think it was wikileaks documents which said that half of the chinese leaders believe on distancing themselves from NK. So the other half may be inclined to help NK :/

http://articles.latimes.com/2010/dec/01/world/la-fg-wikileaks-china-koreas-20101201

(These are just impressions. Nothing is for sure on the internet :X so take with a grain of salt.)


Also Nk might not be much of an economic contributer to China, but geopolitically they are a shield to big brother.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/26/china.north.korea.ties/index.html


Everyone is so focused on NK, they don't have time to ponder on China. makes sense why the Chinese would want NK around to keep everyones attention away from them. Also its good for them to have a buffer shield, when there are US allied countries nearby such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan.



PS: China has very strong influence with North Korea and the US. China owns most of US debt so it's going to be hard for the US to aggravate China in this matter. NK has very few allies; and China is the main reason why they hadn't been invaded. So NK cannot afford to alienate China. China's patience is growing thin already.

[godly_music]

They should just get it over with. All this ****footing around - I consider "military drills near the border" that too - is just getting old.

[Moogle Stiltzkin]

I think it's a matter of pretense.

Iraq is a very similar situation. The pretense for war was that Saddam was working on WOMD. The Americans (bush) and the British (Tony Blair) said it was true. Everyone else thought the same since both the US and UK said it was true. After the war it wasn't so; so they then changed the story that they were liberating an oppressed people all along.

So even if in the end the pretense for it was misguided, nobody really missed Saddam. Theres going to need to be something like that before SK/Japan/US can invade NK. A retaliatory strike is just what they need as an excuse to go to war.

Kim Jong may be pushing a bit too far and hard this time :/ he might come to regret it after NK is invaded, and when he is executed for crimes against humanity.

[Lanx]

There is nothing in it for America to gain by invading iraq, we don't have a republican president who is suckeling on some arabian oil tycoons, there is no such situation in NK/SK. America basically has a minor standing army in SK, if NK attacks SK, they'll be dealing with the marines, one Abrams tank could take over NK!

China is like a drug dealer, they will quietly sell to NK cuz, well money is money, however if the rest of the world says, war is now, China will say GTFO NK! no soup for you, cuz China knows that in order to be powerful again, having a great army is so 1st century but having a world economy is the new way to conquer the world.

I don't think the Japanese could even put up a fight if they didn't have American support, i think we bombed the bushido out of em back in 45'.

[8_INCH_FLOPPY]

The one good thing about the US debt is that China cannot go to war with the US without destroying their entire economy.  Fortunately, a war between US and China is not viable at the moment.  North Korea is not stupid enough to attack again.  They will threaten to, then probably try to extort some money from the UN for not doing it.

[Lanx]

China just wants our women.

Specifically Zooey Deschanel.

she's trying to be a smaller chested Kate Perry now did you know that?

[Moogle Stiltzkin]

Anywayz.... just watch 18th - 21st december. Because the sk drill is going to be held sometime along those days.

[keyboardlover]

I'll watch it. But ONLY for the lulz.

[PAINKILLER]

I'm pretty sure that the brink of war is eminent.

[WhiteRice]

It was the new defense minister that stated that the South would retaliate with airstrikes if there was any further aggression from the North.

I got bored after that.

[quadibloc]

I would be very surprised if North Korea would fire upon the troops involved in a military exercise. South Korea is showing great forbearance, now that innocent citizens of its country have been killed, undeniably, by the North Korean military. That is because they won't choose to escalate to all-out war.

But their troops will shoot back if fired upon, and if that happens, North Korea would be faced with the choice of escalating. Unless it plans to do so, there is no benefit to it of proving that its threats are hollow.

China is likely to demand that the South or the U.S. not take over control of the North if there is a conflict, and since China has a second-strike capability, it might well be able to get that much from the U.S.; but if it were instead to demand that the North be allowed to take over the South, that would lead to war between the U.S. and China - and so China is not likely to make that kind of demand.

Thus, the most likely outcome of all this is only unnecessary and inconclusive bloodshed.

[chimera15]

Let's look at it this way. The U.S. had the Korean war won, and the entirety of the Korean peninsula was going to fall when China and Russia stepped in and saved the North.  

If China and Russia are no longer supporting NK, then there's no foundation for them being a country at all.  We have 50 years of military advancement on anything NK has.  We could probably take out that country in less than a week, nukes or not, and troops in Iraq or not.  Our Air Force currently isn't doing anything, and with SK troops, NK would be doomed.

They've fired missiles towards us, clearly in an attempt to threaten the US/Hawaii.  So what currently is the reason we're not just destroying NK?

[Moogle Stiltzkin]

Probably hands full with Iraq and Afghanistan at the time. War on terror :X and ousting Saddam.

[WhiteRice]

Most of North Korea is made up of innocent people.

That's the thing about war, it's horrible.

"take out" a whole country. This is why people hate Americans.

Show Image

Pixelated representation of the deaths in Iraq, recorded in the US Army SigActs, for a period going from 01/01/2004 to 12/31/2009.

Blue = *Friendly*, Green = *Host* Nation, Orange = Civilians, Grey = Enemies.

First one is function of sum, second one is function of time, or how you can dilute the media impact of a massacre by killing a few people each day for 6 years. Just remember that host nation + civilian + enemies = mostly Iraqis.

Used the cleaned dump from The Guardian.

-http://melka.one.free.fr/portfolio/

[Lanx]

half the ppl in NK prolly just want to see their SK family and vice versa, pretty sure thousands were split up to accomodate this stupid NK/SK split. (ilove how countries back then just split other countries up, e-w berlin, palistin and israel)

[Moogle Stiltzkin]

Hm well bill richardson is there having talks with the nk officials to try help ease tensions.

Sk also may delay their scheduled drill by a few days now apparently :/

Anyway i can see from his perspective, why bill wants to prevent this from escalating. Like with the Us economy in deep****; do they really need another war at this time ?

But isn't this what Nk wants ? Pick a fight to act tough (maybe so later they can demand more stuff like loosening of sanctions ?), and when SK/US decide no more being mr nice guys after the sinking of a military ship and artilery strikes on the island; now comes along bill to ease the tentions :/ Is this the sort of encouragement/behaviour to show Nk in reflection of their actions ? Probably not.

But to avert a costly war under the current economic situation ? Maybe :x

[Lanx]

no one is gonna start any wars unless it's the US, we're all powerful, we wtfpwnd Iraq in 91 that was almost 20 years ago with like 20 tanks, then we pwn'd them again 12 years later with upgraded tanks. Now we let the geeky kids kill ppl by remote control. The gov't said we need ppl that can remote fly these complicated predator death drones, lets get those modern warfare kids that can't do a push up in here and see what they do. Congrats son! your promoted to top gun (this is loosely true on a few accounts)
I mean NK is dumb, but they ain't a r-tard, they know how bad it can get, what they do have going for them is that they have fanatical ppl who have lived under a blanket for 2/3 generations, so that pretty much guarantee's lots of faithful soldiers.
SK on the other hand has mandatory military service, yes they send kids into the army whose only know tactic is zerg rush, or reaver drop and they come out ready to kill.
Pretty sure even w/o the US flying machines of sniper death or awesome wtf pwn'd tanks of destruction, SK can take care of themselves.
kekeke zerg rush NK in 5...4...3....

[mike]

Let's look at it this way. The U.S. had the Korean war won, and the entirety of the Korean peninsula was going to fall when China and Russia stepped in and saved the North.  

No, the Allies won the Korean war; to say otherwise is an insult to the combatants and casualties from all the other countries.

[quadibloc]

No, the Allies won the Korean war; to say otherwise is an insult to the combatants and casualties from all the other countries.

It certainly is true that South Korea, the United States, Canada, Australia, Turkey, Belgium, Colombia, Ethiopia, France, Greece, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Phillipines, South Africa, and Thailand together won the Korean War.

However, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics participated on the other side in the Korean War, India only sent non-combatant medical personnel, and Mexico, the Republic of China, Norway, Poland, and Czechoslovakia, for example, were not participants.

(In English, at least, the phrase "the Allies" normally means the Allied combatants in World War II, and not any other conflict.)

[Lanx]

I thought the Korean war was the first conflict of UN intervention, and the "allies" side was actually the side of the UN and the "other side" were the ppl who didn't qualify.

[Moogle Stiltzkin]

@quadibloc

I am pretty sure the Chinese sent troops to assist North Korea.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War

History:
On June 25, 1950, the North Korean offensive started from four locations across the 38th parallel into South Korea. In 41 days the South Korean and American forces would be driven back into the Pusan perimeter, just a few miles from the southern shore of the tip of South Korea. In August reinforcements from the Eighth Army and Marine Corps would arrive.

By the end of September the Eighth Army would break out of the Pusan perimeter while Infantry and Marine Corps landed at Inchon and liberated Seoul, the capital of South Korea. Three months later Marines, forward details from the Army and other British, French, Turkish, South Korean and other United Nations forces would stand at the Yalu River, the border between Korea and China, thinking the war was nearly over. Soon after reaching the border, a force of 300,000 Chinese troops who had moved into North Korea during the UN advance and concealed themselves in the mountainous terrain, attacked the UN forces from the rear. The UN forces would soon be fighting their way back to the coast to be taken off by the Navy or to secure positions in the south. The next 2½ years of the conflict would become trench warfare or battles for hilltops fought back and forth across the 38th parallel. During the war several decisions were made that would set the course of World history. Prior to the conflict America was disarming from World War II, ignoring the communist threat. After the North Korean invasion, President Truman set the doctrine that no country would fall to communism. It marked the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union and established our industrial base for the next 50 years.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bootbearwdc/82490561/

[keyboardlover]

It was the new defense minister that stated that the South would retaliate with airstrikes if there was any further aggression from the North.

I got bored after that.

Show Image

Best post in this thread.

[Moogle Stiltzkin]

The main reason for the war

The war began on 25 June 1950 and an armistice was signed on 27 July 1953. The war was a result of the physical division of Korea by an agreement of the victorious Allies at the conclusion of the Pacific War.

The Korean peninsula had been ruled by Japan from 1910 until the end of World War II.

In 1945, following the surrender of Japan, American administrators divided the peninsula along the 38th Parallel, with United States troops occupying the southern part and Soviet troops occupying the northern part.[29]


With both North and South Korea sponsored by external powers, the Korean War was a proxy war. From a military science perspective, it combined strategies and tactics of World War I and World War II: it began with a mobile campaign of swift infantry attacks followed by air bombing raids, but became a static trench war by July 1951.

Mostly i blame the Russians. Their puppet Kim Jong and their ilk was after all just a dictatorship thug that made his people suffer, while he and his elites lived in luxury.

Compare that to the South Korea who have a democratic government and they work toward improving their citizens life standards, you can see a contrast difference in administration styles.

[quadibloc]

I am pretty sure the Chinese sent troops to assist North Korea.

They certainly did. I just said that Taiwan didn't send any troops to assist South Korea.

I had been listing several of the Allies that didn't fight on the side of South Korea. The People's Republic of China did not belong on that list, because it didn't exist yet during World War II, although there were then parts of China held by Communist forces due to the chaos caused by the Japanese invasion.

[Moogle Stiltzkin]

Maybe Taiwan had too much at stack to be involved. Just my guess :/

[keyboardlover]

Maybe Taiwan had too much at stack to be involved. Just my guess :/

So Taiwan had a "stack overflow"?

[Moogle Stiltzkin]

Ops. I meant at stake :x

[Pylon]

According to a book I'm currently reading, Chiang-Kai-Shek offered to send troops to assist the UN/South Korea, but the Truman administration declined because his intentions were obviously to provoke Communist China into joining the war, have them enter the war, and then force the US to join him and invade and retakeover China, or something like that. Truman wanted none of that.

[quadibloc]

According to a book I'm currently reading, Chiang-Kai-Shek offered to send troops to assist the UN/South Korea, but the Truman administration declined because his intentions were obviously to provoke Communist China into joining the war, have them enter the war, and then force the US to join him and invade and retakeover China, or something like that. Truman wanted none of that.

Which is quite understandable at the time - and, of course, as was also exemplified by MacArthur's fate. After the downfall of the Soviet Union, and before China acquired a second-strike capability, perhaps the Clinton Administration should have reconsidered.

[Moogle Stiltzkin]

Nothing happened after all

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/12/20/koreas.tensions/index.html?hpt=T2


Apparently Bill Richardson succeeded in getting North Korea to take a chill pill.

But still this is troubling. NK is saying the south can buy their fuel rods .... so their trying to extort So basically it's back to square one of the extortion racket to sponsor Kim Jong and gang's extravagant life styles.

[mike]

It certainly is true that South Korea, the United States, Canada, Australia, Turkey, Belgium, Colombia, Ethiopia, France, Greece, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Phillipines, South Africa, and Thailand together won the Korean War.

(In English, at least, the phrase "the Allies" normally means the Allied combatants in World War II, and not any other conflict.)

Er ... you've missed out the second biggest contributor!

As to 'the Allies', you're probably right - if you include WWI too. It does get abused often enough that it's beginning to lose that exclusivity though.

[mike]

Wow.  A Semicolon.

;

You don't see that around Geekhack much these  days.  In fact this key is going the way of the ScrollLock key.

I like scattering them around randomly - who wants a key that doesn't get much use ?

There's still Perl though - plenty of semicolons used there.

[keyboardlover]

Love me some semicolons; guess I'm one of the few.

[mike]

Love me some semicolons; guess I'm one of the few.

You've just reached the age of the semicolon; it comes to us all in the end. Although there's a few who reach the age of the colon.

[quadibloc]

Er ... you've missed out the second biggest contributor!

My apologies to the United Kingdom. I thought it was in the list, but I was not watchful enough.

[Hak Foo]

It's important to remember that the Republic of Korea was not always the modern showcase it is today. It had its share of autocratic madmen.

[AndrewZorn]

director of Oldboy

...and it will be watched.

[Oqsy]

[Lanx]

I'm really into South Korean cinema right now.

you never have to say Skorea cinema or skorean anything really, nkorea doesn't export anything except a load of batsh&& craziness. So anything coming out of korea, or any film/tv show, any korean you have ever met is going to be defaulted to skorean really.

[PAINKILLER]

you never have to say Skorea cinema or skorean anything really, nkorea doesn't export anything except a load of batsh&& craziness. So anything coming out of korea, or any film/tv show, any korean you have ever met is going to be defaulted to skorean really.

Oh yeah? How about this:

I'm watching it right now. Pretty entertaining.
Btw North Korea also exports a lot of arms.

[quadibloc]

Btw North Korea also exports a lot of arms.

Yes, to the wrong people who shouldn't have them.

[PAINKILLER]

Well, apparently my country did the same thing. Many times. So what? Business is business.

[Oqsy]

I want to travel to Best Korea!  I want to see a unicorn!

[Hak Foo]

When trade becomes difficult, and the oil runs out, we'll all look to them to see how to make do with less.

Incidental:  Kim Il-Sung is still alive; he's a vampire.  That awesome reason is why he's still considered the head of state despite nominally being dead.


Someone needs to do a Chuck Norris style meme about the DPRK

[Oqsy]

How to make do with less?  Muwahahaha.

[quadibloc]

Oh yeah? How about this:

Our glorious country probably made similar films about the construction of the St. Lawrence Seaway, but they do not appear to be available on the Internet.

Apparently our National Film Board feels these films are so compelling in their interest, that money can be made from people paying to watch them, and so putting them on the Internet for free would be unwise!