Someone may have done this calculation before but :
If you assume English, e is the most common character at 12.702% (ignoring the space bar, capitols and all that).
That means a key rated at 20,000,000 activations will fail after a total of 157,355,518 total key presses (if 12.7% of them are on a single key).
Using the standard definition of "word" at 5 characters that's a total of 31,491,103 words.
If you can type at a constant 80wpm, the most use key will hit its life after 393,639min (273 days) of constant typing. A key rated at 50M key presses should last 2.5x as long.
Seems like the new best thing will come along long before either 20M or 50M activation keys will wear out =P.