Part of me wants to do the math to see what my odds are, but another part of me is afraid to see how small that number is. The third part is psyched about getting stickers and fears not being able to the math for the first part anyway.
Well as of 10/8/2015, 4031 stickers were sold. Sale ended a couple days after that so I'll assume 4500 stickers were sold. 100 Binge caps available so that's a 1/45 chance for every sticker bought. 45 stickers bought is a near guarantee for getting a cap unless you're really unlucky. This doesn't really account for people who bought a lot of stickers (because when their order is drawn, they're pulled out of the pool), so I imagine the odds are better. 220+ unique orders... 100 of those win a cap so it seems the chances are a lot better than 1/45 per sticker. Someone tell me this makes sense lol.
So without accounting for the 2-cap limit and withdrawal of those tickets from the pool, the odds of receiving a keycap with 45 tickets and 4500 tickets sold should be about 63.4% I believe.
1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
Where x is the probability of the event and y is the number of runs.
I'm just using an old loot chance formula, but I think the idea's the same.
Anyone please feel free to point out any mistakes or errors in logic.
Once again, this doesn't account for the ticket pool changing, so odds are likely better than estimated.
