Keyboard Prediction Thread

[swimmingbird]

I'm finding that I don't have enough general keyboard chat stuff in my watched thread coming up so I wanted to start a thread where people could post and discuss their predictions or thoughts about what's happening in the keyboard community, the implications and so forth.

Ideally this thread would be focused on keyboards, keycaps, layouts, switches, geekhack, groupbuys, vendors and any other topic related topic If possible predictions should try and elicit discussion amongst community members. If you want feel free to add a date on to your predictions if you want to test it down the road.

I'll start off with a few that I've had on my mind lately:

1. More and more GMK buys will be run either through vendors or in conjunction with vendors - I predict 4+ full GMK sets to be run through Massdrop in 2016

2. Sandwich style board designs like GON and Winkeyless will be copied by major manufacturers - 

I'd love to hear all of your predictions 

[fknraiden]

I have a feeling that one or more of the "Elders" here will get out of the KB game for good.

[njbair]

This sounds like fun. I predict that by the end of 2017:

1. Signature Plastics will create a new keycap profile, similar to DCS but thicker, in order to compete with GMK.

2. Matias will expand their line of Alps-compatible switches, to offer more choices for hobbyists.

3. njbair will finally score some blue Alps switches.

[raymogi]

Here's an easy prediction. Applies to me and everyone else here.

More money will fly out of our wallets... sacrificed for the KB gods...

[swimmingbird]

NJBair, coming from one of the dudes picking up an unpaid order, I assumed I wasn't in the raffle. Definitely not going to be upset if not entered- just happy to be here! If we do get included it's just a pretty sweet bonus So no worries bra, don't think about it too much

This sounds like fun. I predict that by the end of 2017:

1. Signature Plastics will create a new keycap profile, similar to DCS but thicker, in order to compete with GMK.

2. Matias will expand their line of Alps-compatible switches, to offer more choices for hobbyists.

3. njbair will finally score some blue Alps switches.

1. Just opened my package of JTK Debut keycaps - these are what SP should have done with DCS... I'm not sure how responsive SP are to investment though - it seems like it took so much effort just to get R4 shifts in SA profile, I don't think they'd be willing to drop the cash for molding an entire set of nice thick cherry profile caps - would be really nice though considering that they are basically the only custom place offering Alps compatible sets (at least in DCS)

2. Would be cool but do Matias have the cash to do it? It seems like at the moment they are trying to get more OEMs to start using their existing switches in their boards (e.g. V80 TKL).

3. Fingers crossed 

[swimmingbird]

Here's an easy prediction. Applies to me and everyone else here.

More money will fly out of our wallets... sacrificed for the KB gods...

That's like predicting that the sun is going to come up tomorrow

[FrostyToast]

1. There will be drama with a keycap artisan
2. A group buy runner or vendor will disappear
3. Massdrop will **** up a group buy. Again.

[njbair]

2. Would be cool but do Matias have the cash to do it? It seems like at the moment they are trying to get more OEMs to start using their existing switches in their boards (e.g. V80 TKL).

It wouldn't take much, since the sliders are identical in all Matias switches, only the tactile/click leaf would change, and probably different spring weights, etc.

[jonathanyu]

1. There will be drama with a keycap artisan
2. A group buy runner or vendor will disappear
3. Massdrop will **** up a group buy. Again.

This is the fate on gh. not prediction

[swimmingbird]

2. Would be cool but do Matias have the cash to do it? It seems like at the moment they are trying to get more OEMs to start using their existing switches in their boards (e.g. V80 TKL).

It wouldn't take much, since the sliders are identical in all Matias switches, only the tactile/click leaf would change, and probably different spring weights, etc.

Care to make a prediction on clicky/tactile/linear? Weight?

[njbair]

2. Would be cool but do Matias have the cash to do it? It seems like at the moment they are trying to get more OEMs to start using their existing switches in their boards (e.g. V80 TKL).

It wouldn't take much, since the sliders are identical in all Matias switches, only the tactile/click leaf would change, and probably different spring weights, etc.

Care to make a prediction on clicky/tactile/linear? Weight?

Since I've only tried Quiet Clicks so far (I've got some Clicks on the way from BlueNalgene), I'll hold off on the specifics. But probably a total of two linear styles with different weights, and a second tactile option as well.

I'm not an expert on the mechanics of simplified Alps, but I wonder if they could offer a switch with a different actuation point.

[Snowdog993]

A very unique buckling spring keyboard will emerge in the near future:

1. Space Saving TKL
2. Between 84-94 keys.
3. Fully configurable ~ Programmable.
4. Diode / Fiberglass construction.
5. Custom Bezel (actually can be easily modified)
6. Frame/Scroll buffering up to 255 characters.  (Not exactly NKRO but pretty cool...)
7. There will be several "sizes" for the new board.  (Actually 2-3 options depending on configuration)
8. ANSI and ISO options.
* MASS Production picked up by a MAJOR manufacturer.

I wish.

[darkclone24]

The supply of 60% keyboards via both manufacturers and group buys will grow larger than the demand, and we'll see a lot of failed group buys for 60s next year.

[FrostyToast]

1. There will be drama with a keycap artisan
2. A group buy runner or vendor will disappear
3. Massdrop will **** up a group buy. Again.

This is the fate on gh. not prediction

Very true. I'll provide something a little more insightful than the basic stuff.

1. Matias will venture further into the keycap space; expanding not only with their PBT caps but also interesting colorways
2. A unique and original custom model f keyboard following Ellipse's success
3. Some sort of custom housing for a topre keyboard. Realforce, HHKB, etc.
4. JTK will not be available for production outside of [CTRL]Alt exclusive sales; not even a PMK style voting system
5. Increased support for custom ALPS boards through GH run GBs, keyboard kits specifically

[fanpeople]

I predict that there will not be a HHKB 3 as HHKB has already achieved perfection.

[Oobly]

1. There will be a new font made for SA profile to allow designers more choice
2. Documents detailing SP's capabilities in different profiles will be produced, including accurate specifications for legend designs
3. Designers will start to use more gloss caps and polycarbonate in their SA designs
4. SA profile SHIF T key legends will be fixed on future sets
5. SA profile will continue to be the most popular with designers, despite the lead time, due to all the options it affords designers
6. Cherry will finally make a switch that the community really wants (a 62g dampened Clear perhaps) and isn't scratchy, but will it be too little, too late?
7. A portable mechanical keyboard for phones and tablets will be released
8. JTK will introduce backlit Cherry profile doubleshots that actually look nice with backlighting on and off
9. UKKeycaps will run a GB for a Devlin "Q" profile caps set <-looking forward to this one
10. I will spend too much money on keyboards and keycaps

But I cheated on a few of those...

I don't think SP will make a new set of molds for "thick DCS", but if they did I'd want them to redesign the bottom rows to have a flatter angle and maybe even symmetrical spacebar and Alt keys (convex, like the spacebar) since most people use their thumbs for those.

[jaffers]

Definitely agree with the GMK sets. In particular I think that there will be a classic beige GB again and it will actually reach MOQ this time.
65% to 75% GB's will become increasingly more popular as 60% alone is not functional enough.
Cherry profile will become available at Signature Plastics.
People will have a falling out with Signature Plastics for fluctuating prices.
Massdrop will make a loss for having too many el cheapo chinese keyboards that can be bought off ali express for less

[FrostyToast]

Definitely agree with the GMK sets. In particular I think that there will be a classic beige GB again and it will actually reach MOQ this time.
65% to 75% GB's will become increasingly more popular as 60% alone is not functional enough.
Cherry profile will become available at Signature Plastics.
People will have a falling out with Signature Plastics for fluctuating prices.
Massdrop will make a loss for having too many el cheapo chinese keyboards that can be bought off ali express for less

SP already has DCS which is pretty much Cherry profile already.
They would not waste the time and resources in producing a new Cherry profile unless there was the additional motive for thicker caps.

[KHAANNN]

I think GMK is going to screw everyone by allowing custom double-shots through Uniqey, we will all enjoy it tho

Gone the days feeling special because you scored GMK's for your absurd layout, <$500 will buy any custom colorscheme, you can sell the accompanying keyboard later on

[azhdar]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

[Melvang]

I predict I will purchase a mill, make custom cases for model F and start my learning and transition to building Datamancer level cases for F AT, 122, Unsaver, and possibly XT.

[jonathanyu]

DrHubble's MIRA will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

this is actually what i predict as well..

[Photekq]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

High quality prediction.

[Oobly]

I predict I will purchase a mill, make custom cases for model F and start my learning and transition to building Datamancer level cases for F AT, 122, Unsaver, and possibly XT.

I like this prediction a lot. And look forward to seeing it fulfilled!

[Dernubenfrieken]

Backlit topre keyboard. Just seems like an inevitability.

PMK will never materialize. Seems like vaporware at this point, and its easier for them to just reproduce what they feel like to keep their tooling busy. Massdrop will dominate SP group buys, and very few will be run by individuals/ctrlalt/etc.

3 months from now there will be 10 different SA interest checks claiming they are about to go to group buy.

[Melvang]

I predict I will purchase a mill, make custom cases for model F and start my learning and transition to building Datamancer level cases for F AT, 122, Unsaver, and possibly XT.

I like this prediction a lot. And look forward to seeing it fulfilled!

Current thought is a two metal pieces total.  The solid back plate is also the case, all milled from one block, and the swiss cheese plate for the barrels is also the top half of the case, all milled from a second block.  The biggest hurdle, is this would require either some serious CAM/CNC, or I think it could be possible with manual using 4 axis.

[nmur]

Razer/Corsair will release 60% gaming keyboard lines, with marketing advertising their space saving properties. Overtakes the pok3r.

Less keys = less LEDs to break, right?

[swimmingbird]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

High quality prediction.

DrHubble's MIRA will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

this is actually what i predict as well..

 

[swimmingbird]

Razer/Corsair will release 60% gaming keyboard lines, with marketing advertising their space saving properties. Overtakes the pok3r.

Less keys = less LEDs to break, right?

I think what azhdar said about 65% is probably more likely - non-GH/DT/r/mk people need to see arrow keys to feel comfortable

[njbair]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

I would be okay with this, especially if the nonstandard bottom row issues are addressed and corrected.

[swimmingbird]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

I would be okay with this, especially if the nonstandard bottom row issues are addressed and corrected.

There's a nonstandard bottom row?

[njbair]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

I would be okay with this, especially if the nonstandard bottom row issues are addressed and corrected.

There's a nonstandard bottom row?

Leopold FC660 has a 6U spacebar.

[swimmingbird]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

I would be okay with this, especially if the nonstandard bottom row issues are addressed and corrected.

There's a nonstandard bottom row?

Leopold FC660 has a 6U spacebar.

Thought you were talking about MIRA

[potatowire]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

I would be okay with this, especially if the nonstandard bottom row issues are addressed and corrected.

There's a nonstandard bottom row?

Leopold FC660 has a 6U spacebar.

The 660 *had* a 6u space bar.

http://imgur.com/a/TM7E4

[njbair]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

I would be okay with this, especially if the nonstandard bottom row issues are addressed and corrected.

There's a nonstandard bottom row?

Leopold FC660 has a 6U spacebar.

The 660 *had* a 6u space bar.

http://imgur.com/a/TM7E4

Maybe I'm losing my mind, but I can't tell where they changed it to buy themselves an extra 0.25U. What am I missing?

[Melvang]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

I would be okay with this, especially if the nonstandard bottom row issues are addressed and corrected.

There's a nonstandard bottom row?

Leopold FC660 has a 6U spacebar.

The 660 *had* a 6u space bar.

http://imgur.com/a/TM7E4

Maybe I'm losing my mind, but I can't tell where they changed it to buy themselves an extra 0.25U. What am I missing?

Left control

[njbair]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

I would be okay with this, especially if the nonstandard bottom row issues are addressed and corrected.

There's a nonstandard bottom row?

Leopold FC660 has a 6U spacebar.

The 660 *had* a 6u space bar.

http://imgur.com/a/TM7E4

Maybe I'm losing my mind, but I can't tell where they changed it to buy themselves an extra 0.25U. What am I missing?

Left control

I don't think so, see how the 1U winkey lines up with the left shift on both boards?

[potatowire]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

I would be okay with this, especially if the nonstandard bottom row issues are addressed and corrected.

There's a nonstandard bottom row?

Leopold FC660 has a 6U spacebar.

The 660 *had* a 6u space bar.

http://imgur.com/a/TM7E4

Maybe I'm losing my mind, but I can't tell where they changed it to buy themselves an extra 0.25U. What am I missing?

Left control

I don't think so, see how the 1U winkey lines up with the left shift on both boards?

I think the parallax makes it look like it lines up, even though it doesn't. L CTRL does look like a 1.25u on the new board.

[njbair]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

I would be okay with this, especially if the nonstandard bottom row issues are addressed and corrected.

There's a nonstandard bottom row?

Leopold FC660 has a 6U spacebar.

The 660 *had* a 6u space bar.

http://imgur.com/a/TM7E4

Maybe I'm losing my mind, but I can't tell where they changed it to buy themselves an extra 0.25U. What am I missing?

Left control

I don't think so, see how the 1U winkey lines up with the left shift on both boards?

I think the parallax makes it look like it lines up, even though it doesn't. L CTRL does look like a 1.25u on the new board.

I think those are both 6.25 spacebars, guys.

Maybe I was wrong and it wasn't the length of the spacebar but the location of the stems.

[SamirD]

A very unique buckling spring keyboard will emerge in the near future:

1. Space Saving TKL
2. Between 84-94 keys.
3. Fully configurable ~ Programmable.
4. Diode / Fiberglass construction.
5. Custom Bezel (actually can be easily modified)
6. Frame/Scroll buffering up to 255 characters.  (Not exactly NKRO but pretty cool...)
7. There will be several "sizes" for the new board.  (Actually 2-3 options depending on configuration)
8. ANSI and ISO options.
* MASS Production picked up by a MAJOR manufacturer.

I wish.

In a related prediction, buckling spring boards demand falls even more because all the ipeople out there want super silent quiet things that look pretty.    In related news, Apple fanboy gets knocked out with a slap to the head by an F122... )

[Snowdog993]

In a related prediction, buckling spring boards demand falls even more because all the ipeople out there want super silent quiet things that look pretty.    In related news, Apple fanboy gets knocked out with a slap to the head by an F122... )

#4 is the most important part of the whole thing. 
It will be a fiberglass membrane-type design with diodes. 
The springs will be clicking on that fiberglass rather than metal.
It will have a distinctive sound, but not exactly the same as the original Model M. 

[katushkin]

I think those are both 6.25 spacebars, guys.

Maybe I was wrong and it wasn't the length of the spacebar but the location of the stems.

Definitely both 6.25

[Oobly]

DrHubble's MIRA GB will fail dramatically and at best will have a full year of delay.

More people will realise that 65% is the best layout out there, so new 65% boards will arrive.

I would be okay with this, especially if the nonstandard bottom row issues are addressed and corrected.

I quite like the Magicforce 68 key. It uses all standard caps and has 4 edit keys. Downside is it's only 1u narrower than a TKL, but I think it's a good compromise of compactness / functionality. I have 2 on order from Massdrop so I'll how it is to actually use. I suspect I'll be as fast on it as on a TKL, the FN layer arrows and edits on my 60% do slow me down a touch when editing.

[Niomosy]

An ANSI 122 board will come to fruition.
A standard split + tented Cherry MX compatible board will be available... with the 6 on the left side.
Someone will manufacturer small batches of hall effect switches and put Cherry compatible stems on them.
Tall deep dish PBT doubleshot keycaps will become a reality.

I'll wait up from this dream.

[njbair]

All major keycap group buys moving forward, will require photorealistic 3D renders to be taken seriously.

[Steezus]

All major keycap group buys moving forward, will require photorealistic 3D renders to be taken seriously.

It is already becoming the new standard, it does draw in a good bit of interest.

[bcredbottle]

The availability of artisans will massively increase to the point where tier 1 artisan caps are readily available on the primary market.

[davkol]

A standard split + tented Cherry MX compatible board will be available... with the 6 on the left side.

That's not much of a prediction, actually, considering that Kinesis is already running Idk-how-manyeth round of surveys for the gaming Freestyle.

[Dernubenfrieken]

The availability of artisans will massively increase to the point where tier 1 artisan caps are readily available on the primary market.

I think the opposite. It's gonna be really easy to buy lower "tier" keycaps, but the top tier caps are only gonna be traded for other top tier caps.

[Steezus]

The availability of artisans will massively increase to the point where tier 1 artisan caps are readily available on the primary market.

I think the opposite. It's gonna be really easy to buy lower "tier" keycaps, but the top tier caps are only gonna be traded for other top tier caps.

I agree with you, there's a lot of people wanting to become artisans but the quality is no where near. Tier 1 selection will likely stay around the same.