This is a tricky case study: the group buy model does not scale well and this remains a niche hobby. Demand has exploded during COVID lockdowns. Also, tastes change, new designs and products are introduced, and vendors seem to lack capital to stock products in bulk. And part of the fun is that we all can, over time, find the products that speak to us which makes mass merchandising problematic. At this point I have more questions than answers.Anyone following the group buy scene has noticed that GMK lead times are pushing beyond 1 year (and other manufacturers are extending production times also). There has been talk, but no confirmation, about GMK adding new machinery to reduce production time. There have been rumors about supply chain problems. There have been suggestions that designers sent incorrect files (e.g., Yugo). Now it seems the latest issue is color matching.
What there has NOT been is clear communication from GMK. Is this all COVID related? How can sets like Sashin and Monochrome r2 be delayed because price quotes weren't available (is the proxy or GMK at fault)? How can a world-class plastics manufacturer not match RAL colors? Is this the norm as keyset designers are "forced" to go beyond stock GMK colors to create a unique colorway?
Dracula - Round 6 of color matching approved late April 2021; GB ended 10/31/19, now expected to ship to vendors in August 2021 (delivery ca. 22 months)
Yugo - GMK cited issues with banderole art, following 2 rounds of color matching which concluded 09/30/20; GB ended 01/02/20, now expected to ship to vendors 09/06/21 (ca. 20 months)
Masterpiece - Round 3 of color matching rejected on 05/25/21; GB ended 06/02/20, no revised ship date (12+ months, still color matching)
Rouge - Colors approved 10/05/20 but samples not sent until Feb 2021, further delay with renders until 04/20/21 and R2 renders sent 05/13/21 but no sample provided for ♥2 key (GMK render looked sketchy and requires revision); GB ended 06/30/20, no revised ship date (11+ months, design not final)
Sumi - Round 3 of color matching rejected on 05/25/21; GB ended 8/15/20, no revised ship date (9+ months, still color matching)
Stealth - Round 1 color matching rejected 06/01/21; GB closed 01/16/21, no revised ship date (5+ months, still color matching)
I don't know the answers here but I see a real mismatch between supply and demand. One of those two "must" change. So the question, "when do group buys fail?" appears to be a matter of "when," not "if." And how will the business model change in the future given growth of the hobby? (Or will newcomers move on to other hobbies as COVID lockdowns are lifted?) I think there may be lessons to be learned from the clothing industry which caters to all shapes, sizes and tastes. What other business models might apply?