This is not news. It is the reason why some manufacturers (Razer, TECK, ...) switched to Kailh.
Well I’ve been hearing keyboard makers complaining about switch availability for years, but I don’t think they’ve had >12 month lead times on every variety of MX switch before.
Could also be the other way around, though. Them all switching to Kailh might have caused this. Fewer clients, fewer keyboards, fewer switches.
No way. All these guys would keep using MX switches if they thought they had a reliable source. As Findecanor said, the big reason they switched away is because they can get guaranteed supply from Kaihua. That the switches are a bit cheaper is just an extra bonus.
I think if an alternate switch takes off, it'll have to be Cherry compatible. For that reason, I don't foresee Matias [..] taking off.
Why do you think it has to be MX-compatible? If it’s just for the keycaps, then (a) I have a bigger variety of nice Alps-compatible keycaps pulled from old boards than anyone I know has of MX-compatible ones, and (b) there are various folks currently working on making new Alps/Matias–compatible keycaps.
I think most people buying keyboards don’t really care/worry about what the switches are, even people buying mechanical keyboards. Among the people who are more knowledgeable and picky (and among people selling keyboards), there currently isn’t such great awareness of Matias switches, but I think that will change substantially in the next 1–2 years. The switches are so much better than MX switches that I think they’re going to start seeing more sales once there’s a wider variety of keyboards available.