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« Last post by tp4tissue on Thu, 09 July 2026, 09:32:35 »
To keep numbers easy to understand.
The whole world is 100million barrel of oil (per day),
~30% of oil from the whole world is convertible to diesel, 7% into jet fuel. They draw on the same middle distillate. We produce 30m diesel 7m jet.
Hormuz transits 25 million barrels of oil, 50-60% is middle-distillate, UNIQUELY suitable for diesel. Unlike 'Murikan sweet crude which yields high for plastics and gasoline, poorly for diesel.
This is also why america is not energy independent, it has to imports lots and lots of crude oil to MAKE DIESEL.
There is no substitution, oils are not all the same. Refinery configurations also CAN NOT CHANGE, you're talking YEARS to a Decade of modification.
12.5m hormuz oil made into diesel+jet
12.5m out of 37m is 33.8%.
Hormuz is responsible for 33.8% of the world's diesel+jet.
After our "murika super Epi ( smart foreign policy plan"
A virtually impossible mid-east Miracle recovery tops out at 45% for the next decade->forseeable future. (Kpler study)
So, you got .55*12.5 = 6.875m lost barrel, 6.875/37 = 18.59% barrel of the world's diesel+jet is GONE,
so 18.59% contraction in world diesel+jet supply is the IMPOSSIBLE BEST CASE.
You throw in inefficiencies, Delays, restarts, forever-wars, politics politics politics.
You're looking at something like 20-25% of diesel supply loss.
This is a big deal. as DIESEL has an extremely Outsized Impact on the Economy and supply chain..
You take the impact of a "butterfly effect" event, turn that into a sledge hammer the size of 20million barrels of oil, AND ask, WAHT is the Economi, going to LOOK LIKE?
E(onoP4 remarks/ rough surfaces, ahead.
Ep4 used low estimates of the oil transit. The real impact is probably EVEN Higher.
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