I think the big issue with vinyl over paint, is that if you knock vinyl and pierce it, it's a lot more susceptible thereafter to peeling and the whole finish being ruined. If you just paint it and chip it, there is a lot less of a chance of all the paint coming off than with vinyl.
If you then follow Photoelectric's guide to toughen the paint, and you get the correct paint, it should last a long time. Of course then you need to decide if the design you want comes in paint/you could paint it yourself depending on how complicated it is.