Author Topic: U|<ra1ne 2o22  (Read 18441 times)

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Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #350 on: Sat, 14 May 2022, 15:07:00 »
What, in your opinion, are some good sources for solid journalism and reliable information ?
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #351 on: Sat, 14 May 2022, 16:51:53 »
There are only partial truths,  whatever we read, as long as we remember to follow the money, that is as good a read on reality as can be gleaned.

Specific to U|<ra1ne, The indian news cycle is more fair and less colored.

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #352 on: Sat, 14 May 2022, 17:40:39 »

follow the money

That's why I am hoping that once Putin is down for the count, getting the sanctions lifted will be Priority 1 for the Kleptocrats. They will have to sacrifice a few mansions and yachts, but hey.

There will be some soldiers tried for war crimes, but money laundering, outside of drug smuggling or funding terrorism, has never been a hot button issue.
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #353 on: Sun, 22 May 2022, 11:41:41 »
The public is increasingly convinced that unless |_|Kra1ne wants to become syr1a or 1raq or afghan1stan,  it must concede territories as putin's off ramp.

Even if the US and EU economy is willing to bore the short term costs (also not a certainty), |_|Kra1ne may lose too much population as things escalate.

In the worst case scenario, If it came down to attrition, at the moment it's 100 soldiers dying a day, escalated, that can easily be 500-1000,  let's say 750,   that's 1.36 million in 5 years. realistically, Ukraine can only sustain something like this for 2-3 years before demoralization kicks in and they have a "worse" negotiated surrender.


IDEALLY of course, there's a massive revolt in Rv55ia, C00p happens. Pudz is removed.



The key thing to remember here is, even if concessions are made, Pudz will be pinched for years to come, so it's not a complete victory, but it's a victory none_the_less.



THAT SAID,  heck, we just don't know,  maybe Rv55 will run out of army guys first.  BIG MAYBE, they don't tell us.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #354 on: Sun, 22 May 2022, 22:28:13 »
The public may be convinced but the public is being told what to think by a bunch of morons.

All one has to do is look at Georgia and Crimea.
You cede territory and they just wait and do it again, and again, and again. They literally move the Georgian border every so often in the middle of the night, go to bed in Georgia and wake up and half your farm is now in Russia, next week even your house is in Russia. Not to mention, would you give up part of the US to thwart further invasion? Blah blah, blah cue the California and Florida comments, but what if it was YOUR state the country chose to give up and you're now stuck behind enemy lines? Still think that's a good solution?

Ukraine just needs to announce they found oil, everyone will come running.
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Offline Findecanor

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #355 on: Mon, 23 May 2022, 05:48:07 »
Ukraine just needs to announce they found oil, everyone will come running.
They do have significant reserves of oil and gas, that have been largely unexploited.
A sizeable pocket of oil was found southwest of Kharkiv in 2020.
If Ukraine had developed them, they could have formed a serious competitor to Russian oil and gas. They already have the pipelines to Europe.

Maybe this is the real reason for the war... I dunno. Only Putin would know (if he knows himself).
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Offline chyros

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #356 on: Mon, 23 May 2022, 07:59:55 »
Do we really still care about oil though? If anything it feels like we're accelerating away from it.

Not that that's a bad thing, mind.
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Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #357 on: Mon, 23 May 2022, 08:28:38 »

you're now stuck behind enemy lines?


And it has been widely reported that Russia has made moving Russian people and technology into occupied territories a top priority so that it will be much harder to win them back when the inevitable referendum is held.

But this is Putin's war, and I doubt that anyone else could/would continue to successfully prosecute it, even if they themselves were hard-line and personally wanted to keep at it.
 
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #358 on: Sun, 29 May 2022, 10:58:33 »
OUR OWN, Dangerous public brainwashing...

recent popular article HEADLINE ::Kremlin officials think Ru551a can win U|<ra1ne war by fall, predicting allies will 'get tired of helping,' report says ::

The framing of the article/ responses from the public has been, Pudz got no teeth, they bull****n',   

SURE, let's stiff upper lip, be brave america, we're "almost there",  That may work to placate the public in the mean time,  HOWEVER, we'd be discounting the fact they CAN destroy U|<R, should it come down to ind1scriminate b0mbardm3nt.   not even taking into effect their nu(lear arsenal. So, we take this stance with ALOT OF HUBRIS of our own.

This is not a realistic picture of the situation.

Let's say Pudz calls our bluff,  he obliterates U|<r,  what would we do, as a nu(lear nation he can insure the destruction of the ENTIRE HUMAN RACE with  HIS OWN Arsenal via nu(lear winter.   This is the nature of the Nu(lear shield as a doomsday tech.  The average person does not understands that he doesn't have to shoot those missiles at "Murica",  Pudz can literally, drop all his b0mbs on Rv55ia itself, and the nu(lear winter would still envelope the entire northern hem1sphere, and end the human race.

It's been suppressed in the mass media, but many academics believe that we may be pushing U|<r to the brink of destruction by not allowing them to surrender.  Because at the MOST FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL,  a Nu(lear war CAN NOT be won.


So, by supporting U|<r and expanding nato, what we're essentially doing is sacrificing U|<rians to TEST Rv551a's resolve.    This may be considered amoral in it of itself, because we can not guarantee victory in the slightest, neither for U|<r, nor for ourselves (na7o).   It's very much a "maybe", that leans on the side of likely failure.


Certainly, we all hope it doesn't come to that, and Rv55ia has a c0op, fingers crossed.

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #359 on: Sun, 29 May 2022, 11:54:52 »

This may be considered amoral in it of itself, because we can not guarantee victory


Looking at our major post-WW2 expeditionary boondoggles in the world - Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq - the thing that stands out as different about the Ukraine conflict is that the people there genuinely want and need our help with defending their cause. The South Koreans did want help, surely, but that was really a more pure East-West proxy war wherein the Koreans (on both sides) were pawns.

Helping "the good guys" - who are defending the same democratic principles that their allies strive for - is not amoral.

Whether "victory" (what does that even look like?) can be guaranteed is something that is playing out on a much higher level. From the moment that it began, the best course for all concerned would have been (and continues to be) to halt immediately and attempt to start healing.
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #360 on: Sun, 29 May 2022, 12:59:07 »
Helping "the good guys" - who are defending the same democratic principles that their allies strive for - is not amoral.

Whether "victory" (what does that even look like?) can be guaranteed is something that is playing out on a much higher level. From the moment that it began, the best course for all concerned would have been (and continues to be) to halt immediately and attempt to start healing.

We are making these dangerous assumptions.  There aren't clear good/bad guys in this world, only guys who are more or less powerful.

Rv55 is bad because they're not us.  It's not completely clear who the good guy is, and typically the winner determines this designation.

So, IF we COULD guarantee victory, only then are we the definitive good guys. Just as we've lost 4 wars in a row,  In those regions, we are "NOT" the good guys, the local powers all consider US to be the bad guys and over time, assuming their region recovers, are seeds of dissent. We THINK Japan is our friend, but this couldn't be further from the truth, there is significant anti-american sentiment among their educated classes. Even in the NON_educated yakuza controlled locales, for example the Dolphins, they couldn't give a damn about dolphins, they don't hate dolphins, they actively engage in the killing of them simply out of spite, because "WESTERNERS" care about dolphins.  Given the first opportunity, JPN will stab America in the face.  The anti-Nu(lear movement has gotten tramendous traction in Jpn, they IN FACT blame America for their existing nu(lear contamination crisis.

This TYPE of incidence is throughout the world, when our banks came under cyber attack by the 1ranian gov as payback for our meddling in their nu(lear program. 

The point is, it really doesn't take all that much "violence" to unravel society.  And it is with Tremendous HUBRIS, that we are currently making our gambit.    Imagine the mess the Rv55 can do against our digital infrastructure.

We keep pushing this, they go all out, cripple our banking system for what 2 weeks, we'd be at Civil War. The Repooplicans start a co0p.   Now we're really @ ww3.

And we'd have too short of memory to think something crazy like this can't happen, IT NEARLY happened on Jan 6th.

Offline chyros

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #361 on: Sun, 29 May 2022, 13:41:26 »
predicting allies will 'get tired of helping
Not saying that that's going to happen, but it would be a very strange move. This war is actually extremely positive for NATO, and the more Russian casualties come, the more they profit from this. It'd be very foolish of NATO not to back Ukraine as much as possible as this is a no-risk, relatively cheap and very effective proxy war for them so far.
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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #362 on: Sun, 29 May 2022, 14:22:53 »
this is a no-risk, relatively cheap and very effective proxy war for them so far.

It is neither cheap, nor effective if we LOSE.

There is EXTREME RISK.

Offline chyros

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #363 on: Sun, 29 May 2022, 17:18:54 »
this is a no-risk, relatively cheap and very effective proxy war for them so far.

It is neither cheap, nor effective if we LOSE.

There is EXTREME RISK.

This is the most low-risk and cheapest way to make arguably the biggest enemy of NATO decimate itself, in non-NATO territory to top it all off. I don't see what downsides NATO could possibly see in this. They don't even have to commit to anything (which they're not).

Don't get me wrong, I have opinions of my own about the war, and my heart goes out to everyone in Ukraine. I'm speaking purely from what I think the POV of NATO would be in all this.
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Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #364 on: Sun, 29 May 2022, 17:28:38 »
I just read that Putin's contract soldiers' contracts will expire on June 1st.
I doubt that many of them will renew!
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #365 on: Sun, 29 May 2022, 18:53:53 »
This is the most low-risk and cheapest way to make arguably the biggest enemy of NATO decimate itself, in non-NATO territory to top it all off. I don't see what downsides NATO could possibly see in this. They don't even have to commit to anything (which they're not).

Don't get me wrong, I have opinions of my own about the war, and my heart goes out to everyone in Ukraine. I'm speaking purely from what I think the POV of NATO would be in all this.

It's risky because we can not win a war against a Nuclear Shielded Country. Russia has the capability to destroy U|<r,  U|<r DOES NOT have the capability to destroy Rv55ia.

No matter how much na7o likes to publicize, the fact is we can not guarantee victory, so THIS IS A GAMBLE, we're Betting the U|<ra1ne lives that rv551a will back down in a semi_civil manner.

If that does not happen, U|<ra1ne will be oblitera7ed, and na7o will be permanently broken, the periphery countries will see that it's pointless to Join/and/or/Remain na7o allies, because what good is all the world's conventional weapons, when push comes to shove, you come out a LOSER.  This has less to do with Politics/ Economics,  REAL PEOPLE DIE.

Na7o is good for the military industrial, and it's good for oil / energy industrial, it's pretty much bad for all normal human beings. It's posturing, and capable of bullying non_nu(lear shielded, small nations,  it's not capable of actual victory against military of near parities. It's not even very good against those small nations. we lost 4 wars in a row against much weaker militaries.

We're making an insane gamble right now,

I hope we win and land on Rv55ian c0op. If not, U|<r will likely be destroyed.

Offline chyros

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #366 on: Mon, 30 May 2022, 01:19:13 »
I just read that Putin's contract soldiers' contracts will expire on June 1st.
I doubt that many of them will renew!

Hah, that's a good point. But most of the soldiers there are just conscripts anyway - can't they be drafted right back in?

This is the most low-risk and cheapest way to make arguably the biggest enemy of NATO decimate itself, in non-NATO territory to top it all off. I don't see what downsides NATO could possibly see in this. They don't even have to commit to anything (which they're not).

Don't get me wrong, I have opinions of my own about the war, and my heart goes out to everyone in Ukraine. I'm speaking purely from what I think the POV of NATO would be in all this.

It's risky because we can not win a war against a Nuclear Shielded Country. Russia has the capability to destroy U|<r,  U|<r DOES NOT have the capability to destroy Rv55ia.

No matter how much na7o likes to publicize, the fact is we can not guarantee victory, so THIS IS A GAMBLE, we're Betting the U|<ra1ne lives that rv551a will back down in a semi_civil manner.

If that does not happen, U|<ra1ne will be oblitera7ed, and na7o will be permanently broken, the periphery countries will see that it's pointless to Join/and/or/Remain na7o allies, because what good is all the world's conventional weapons, when push comes to shove, you come out a LOSER.  This has less to do with Politics/ Economics,  REAL PEOPLE DIE.

Na7o is good for the military industrial, and it's good for oil / energy industrial, it's pretty much bad for all normal human beings. It's posturing, and capable of bullying non_nu(lear shielded, small nations,  it's not capable of actual victory against military of near parities. It's not even very good against those small nations. we lost 4 wars in a row against much weaker militaries.

We're making an insane gamble right now,

I hope we win and land on Rv55ian c0op. If not, U|<r will likely be destroyed.

Wars don't (have to) end in the total obliteration of the losing party's country anymore, and Ukraine is not part of NATO. Every Russian tank destroyed now is one less that can be used against NATO countries. If Putin can't even take Ukraine, what's he going to do against NATO, especially now that they've been preparing on full alert status for months?
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Offline Findecanor

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #367 on: Mon, 30 May 2022, 07:27:07 »
It'd be very foolish of NATO not to back Ukraine as much as possible as this is a no-risk, relatively cheap and very effective proxy war for them so far.
Calling Russia's invasion of Ukraine a "proxy-war for NATO" would be adopting the Russian propaganda machine's narrative. I would avoid that.

Many countries are sending military equipment to aid Ukraine's military. Not because their governments have an agenda, but because people within these democratic countries think it is the right thing to do.
« Last Edit: Mon, 30 May 2022, 07:35:13 by Findecanor »
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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #368 on: Mon, 30 May 2022, 08:54:26 »
Wars don't (have to) end in the total obliteration of the losing party's country anymore, and Ukraine is not part of NATO. Every Russian tank destroyed now is one less that can be used against NATO countries. If Putin can't even take Ukraine, what's he going to do against NATO, especially now that they've been preparing on full alert status for months?

There is a large disconnect here,  did we totally obliterate germany post ww1,  why did we fight ww2 ?

It was the unresolved tension and our demand for reparations and to carve out pieces of Germany.

NOW,  what are we doing to Rv551a. we are creating the same conditions. Remember, they "believe" with absolute Certainty, that U|<ra1ne is a part of Rv551a.   

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE from ww2,  Rv551a is fully Doomsday Capable.  Nu(lear weapons do NOT have to launch / go anywhere,  You can blow them up where they are, and STILL END the human race.

That's the worst case.   

Milder still,  let's say this goes to full out, and U|<r is down to their LAST army guy, what then, what will the other countries see,   All these guns/ weapons,  Didn't save ANYONE, all the U|<ranians still died.  THEN Na7o is finished,   they will negotiate an even worse outcome, one where all the U|<ran1ans died "GAMBLING" on the small likelihood that Rv55ia would back down.

Let's say the West Doubles Down at this point,  Full Mobilization, Tacticool n00ks everything, It's TRIVIAL to destroy infrastructure with the weapons that exists,   Who would (hina/ 1ndia back,  Probably not "The West",  hypersonic weapons are unblockable. we'll be back in the stone age within months.   Within 6months - 2 years our rad1oa(tive stockpiles rupture, and then Fury Road.

To believe that we can win a war against, All of these countries put together is ludicrous.


I want to believe we can get the rv551an c0op, but it's again a small probability.

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #369 on: Mon, 30 May 2022, 09:12:25 »
I am astonished that Russians in general, and top Russian military in particular, have not deemed Putin to be so bat**** crazy that they needed to move to stop him.

IF he were to order nuclear strikes, would they comply? What will be the last straw when they "just say NO"?

At this point the "value" of Ukraine must be pretty low and if Russia "won" they would be the ones who had to rebuild it all.
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #370 on: Mon, 30 May 2022, 10:07:25 »
I just read that Putin's contract soldiers' contracts will expire on June 1st.
I doubt that many of them will renew!

Hah, that's a good point. But most of the soldiers there are just conscripts anyway - can't they be drafted right back in?
Contract soldiers (mercenaries) are not the same as conscripts.
Not only can the company decide o take or drop a contract, the individual mercs can do the same to the company.


Also enlisted/conscripts are not drafted back in they are simply not released from service.
Depending on your job and what's going on in the world, you sometimes have to run a gauntlet to get out.
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Offline chyros

  • a.k.a. Thomas
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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #371 on: Mon, 30 May 2022, 11:28:00 »
Wars don't (have to) end in the total obliteration of the losing party's country anymore, and Ukraine is not part of NATO. Every Russian tank destroyed now is one less that can be used against NATO countries. If Putin can't even take Ukraine, what's he going to do against NATO, especially now that they've been preparing on full alert status for months?

There is a large disconnect here,  did we totally obliterate germany post ww1,  why did we fight ww2 ?

It was the unresolved tension and our demand for reparations and to carve out pieces of Germany.

NOW,  what are we doing to Rv551a. we are creating the same conditions. Remember, they "believe" with absolute Certainty, that U|<ra1ne is a part of Rv551a.   

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE from ww2,  Rv551a is fully Doomsday Capable.  Nu(lear weapons do NOT have to launch / go anywhere,  You can blow them up where they are, and STILL END the human race.

That's the worst case.   

Milder still,  let's say this goes to full out, and U|<r is down to their LAST army guy, what then, what will the other countries see,   All these guns/ weapons,  Didn't save ANYONE, all the U|<ranians still died.  THEN Na7o is finished,   they will negotiate an even worse outcome, one where all the U|<ran1ans died "GAMBLING" on the small likelihood that Rv55ia would back down.

Let's say the West Doubles Down at this point,  Full Mobilization, Tacticool n00ks everything, It's TRIVIAL to destroy infrastructure with the weapons that exists,   Who would (hina/ 1ndia back,  Probably not "The West",  hypersonic weapons are unblockable. we'll be back in the stone age within months.   Within 6months - 2 years our rad1oa(tive stockpiles rupture, and then Fury Road.

To believe that we can win a war against, All of these countries put together is ludicrous.


I want to believe we can get the rv551an c0op, but it's again a small probability.

But NATO isn't officially involved and Ukraine is not a NATO country. The whole point is that on paper, NATO isn't fighting this war. NATO isn't even AT war atm. They deliberately do this to not illicit a response from Russia. As Zelensky has continuously lamented, NATO is more than capable of making a no-fly zone over Ukraine, but they know that if they do that, it's basically official, and they can't have that.

There are also serious considerations about how nuclear-capable Russia actually is, as all the maintenance money for their weapons appears to have been pocketed by corrupt army officials. It may sound weird, but I'll remind you that nuclear weapons LITERALLY have a half-life; you can't just let them lie around and expect them to still work after a while. Plus there's of course the consideration that even if the order is given, it's not necessarily certain it'll be executed. We've seen it once before in history, and the Russian commander in charge didn't fire the missiles at that time either. Plus, it's EXTREMELY risky for Putin (or anyone else) to genuinely make the step to using nuclear weapons. Carpet bombing cities you can usually get away with nowadays, but if you pull that particular trigger you may find that your allies are no longer your allies, and your enemies start punching you a lot harder.


It'd be very foolish of NATO not to back Ukraine as much as possible as this is a no-risk, relatively cheap and very effective proxy war for them so far.
Calling Russia's invasion of Ukraine a "proxy-war for NATO" would be adopting the Russian propaganda machine's narrative. I would avoid that.

Many countries are sending military equipment to aid Ukraine's military. Not because their governments have an agenda, but because people within these democratic countries think it is the right thing to do.
Again I'd like to stress I'm making that point from NATO's perspective, not my own. I wholeheartedly agree with my own country's sending tons of weapons to Ukraine because it's the right thing to do and not because it's good for NATO, I'm not even that big a fan of NATO to begin with. I even understand Sweden and Finland's reservations about joining it completely.

However, let's not forget Russia is the clear aggressor here. There is no propaganda narrative that justifies an unsollicited first strike against a sovereign country. All I'm saying is that by backing the justified party, NATO happens to simultaneously be dealing a blow to its main rival. So they're gaining something out of doing the right thing - a clear win.
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Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #372 on: Mon, 30 May 2022, 12:16:27 »

it's EXTREMELY risky for Putin


Putin set out to re-assemble the USSR, but it is painfully clear that is a fail.

But if he really is near the end of his life, and his "legacy" is irrevocably tainted, then what is the risk ?

I can't help but compare it to these cowardly freaks in this country killing a bunch of school kids and then ending themselves. I can't see the allure of "going out in a blaze of glory" but some people obviously do.

“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline iri

  • Posts: 983
  • Location: England
Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #373 on: Mon, 30 May 2022, 15:05:36 »
The last 3 months clearly show that Finland doesn't need NATO to protect itself from Russia.
(...)Whereas back then I wrote about the tyranny of the majority, today I'd combine that with the tyranny of the minorities. These days, you have to be careful of both. They both want to control you. The first group, by making you do the same thing over and over again. The second group is indicated by the letters I get from the Vassar girls who want me to put more women's lib in The Martian Chronicles, or from blacks who want more black people in Dandelion Wine.
I say to both bunches, Whether you're a majority or minority, bug off! To hell with anybody who wants to tell me what to write. Their society breaks down into subsections of minorities who then, in effect, burn books by banning them. All this political correctness that's rampant on campuses is b.s.

-Ray Bradbury

Offline iri

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  • Location: England
Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #374 on: Mon, 30 May 2022, 17:05:18 »
I am astonished that Russians in general, and top Russian military in particular, have not deemed Putin to be so bat**** crazy that they needed to move to stop him.
Did you move to stop Bush from invading Iraq using a fabricated pretext, which caused over 100000 civilian deaths?
(...)Whereas back then I wrote about the tyranny of the majority, today I'd combine that with the tyranny of the minorities. These days, you have to be careful of both. They both want to control you. The first group, by making you do the same thing over and over again. The second group is indicated by the letters I get from the Vassar girls who want me to put more women's lib in The Martian Chronicles, or from blacks who want more black people in Dandelion Wine.
I say to both bunches, Whether you're a majority or minority, bug off! To hell with anybody who wants to tell me what to write. Their society breaks down into subsections of minorities who then, in effect, burn books by banning them. All this political correctness that's rampant on campuses is b.s.

-Ray Bradbury

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #375 on: Mon, 30 May 2022, 17:27:47 »

Did you move to stop Bush


For the past 4 decades the Republican Party has held effective control over the country (via state legislatures in addition to the Senate and its arcane rules) even during the times when Democratic politicians would appear to be, on paper, in "control".

Look at how thoroughly they have thwarted Biden's attempts at implementing programs that the majority of Americans clearly want.

However, it appears that in Russia Putin is in near-complete control single-handedly, and that his war is impacting the Russian people directly, while we Americans were able to mostly ignore the Iraq occupation.

And yes, I consider the Bush/Wolfowitz/Rumsfeld/Cheney cabal to be guilty of war crimes. And I recognized the subterfuge at the time.

But, surprisingly, Cheney's daughter is demonstrating that even Republicans, at least some of them, are able to sometimes recognize a line that shouldn't be crossed.

“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline iri

  • Posts: 983
  • Location: England
Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #376 on: Tue, 31 May 2022, 04:14:08 »
his war is impacting the Russian people directly, while we Americans were able to mostly ignore the Iraq occupation
You accidentally answered your own question. The difference in outcomes has nothing to do with Putin.
(...)Whereas back then I wrote about the tyranny of the majority, today I'd combine that with the tyranny of the minorities. These days, you have to be careful of both. They both want to control you. The first group, by making you do the same thing over and over again. The second group is indicated by the letters I get from the Vassar girls who want me to put more women's lib in The Martian Chronicles, or from blacks who want more black people in Dandelion Wine.
I say to both bunches, Whether you're a majority or minority, bug off! To hell with anybody who wants to tell me what to write. Their society breaks down into subsections of minorities who then, in effect, burn books by banning them. All this political correctness that's rampant on campuses is b.s.

-Ray Bradbury

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #377 on: Tue, 31 May 2022, 07:16:45 »

Americans were able to mostly ignore the Iraq occupation

You accidentally answered your own question.

How so? Are Russians able to ignore the consequences of the sanctions? Or is that only the ones who enjoyed McDonalds?
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #378 on: Wed, 22 June 2022, 12:41:04 »
Pudz's reg1me must be replaced.  For the sake of Climate Change.

As is, their system has no interest in renewables whatsoever, because their singularly profitable industry is fossil fuel export.    This is why they're also so heavily aligned with the 'murican g0p which is just a mouthpiece for the 0il l0bby.

Their lack of innovation and outlook due to internal mismanagement and corruption is unique. "murica is a p00pb0x in this respect as well , but at least we've got SOME good people, and the DISCUSSION of renewables is possible,  That is NOT true under Pudz's reg1me.

Therefore, we must win or earth is d00med. There isn't an alternative <Time Wise>

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #379 on: Wed, 22 June 2022, 14:29:23 »
That famous Slavic stubbornness is too much in the way. Putin needs *something* to make it look like a win, and a good seaport is probably enough. I fear that Ukraine has been emboldened to want "it all" back and that could mean that the country eventually gets ground down to sand.

My advice would be to let go of a chunk of coast line and try to get everybody else back to a normal life. Who knows, they may get it all back anyway when Putin inevitably expires and Russia falls into chaos - those folks might well rather go back to the way it was.
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #380 on: Wed, 22 June 2022, 15:46:10 »
assuming the c00 doesn't happen, and es(alation occurs  U|<r will likely still have to give up d0nba5 and cr1m3a.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #381 on: Thu, 23 June 2022, 01:19:54 »
Not sure Russia has much left they can escalate with, at least not without compromising home security or Syria.
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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #382 on: Thu, 23 June 2022, 05:41:47 »
Not sure Russia has much left they can escalate with, at least not without compromising home security or Syria.


they can do nvkz

Offline Findecanor

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #383 on: Thu, 23 June 2022, 06:09:08 »
What would Russia nuke? Their goal is to capture the territory from the east along the Black Sea coast to Transnistria.
A nuke in any other part of Ukraine would cause radioactive fallout over Russia, Belarus and/or one of the occupied territories.

Also, as long as western prime ministers visit Kiev regularly without telling Russia first, nuking Kiev could potentially cause a very sticky situation.
Man must shape his tools lest they shape him
-- Arthur Miller

Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #384 on: Thu, 23 June 2022, 07:33:23 »
not so much what,  more of "why."

it'd be ultimate proof that the US Hegemony is paper thin. no quantity of conventional weapons can win a nvkl3ar war.

THEREFORE, protraction of our interference is at its core a waste of money and u|<ran1an lives.  Then you'd have probably some Repooplicant president get re-elected. and so on...

The existing na7o allies would see, well the alliance is worth fvk all if we can't win, what was the point. 

Like I said,  we HAVE TO WIN THIS more quickly, and get that c00p going. Otherwise, it's either U|<ra1ne surrenders territory, or nvks.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #385 on: Thu, 23 June 2022, 11:07:52 »
Not sure Russia has much left they can escalate with, at least not without compromising home security or Syria.


they can do nvkz

As Findecanor said, nuke what?

Any launch of an ICBM would trigger everyone else's arsenal, it only requires 3(!) to have a massive impact on life on earth. There's something around 10k of them remaining and no one is only firing off one. Contrary to how the game Fallout looks, it's pretty much a death sentence for humans in general. Claiming you don't care is easy when you're not actually faced with it.

They could use battlefield mini nukes but I'm not sure they have any, much less enough to matter.  While it would contaminate that area, you could day they don't care about Ukraine, "it's a buffer", it sounds a lot like an invasion looking for an excuse to me so I'm not so sure they want that. They also just got a massive taste of how things would be if they did when their soldiers dug up the red forest.  It would also immediately trigger almost all nations to apply to NATO or create their own similar groups and trigger war crimes against Putin and anyone who fires them. Worse, once one is used, Ukraine would likely be equipped with them as well and they've proven far more effective at fighting than Russia so far. Think Putin is scared now, just wait till someone drops a mini nuke by drone.


I'm not sure what the endgame is but you jump way to quickly to nukes.
Again it's one thing to throw the idea around it's another to actually do it,  we're still a long ways off from that actually happening (look up measured escalation).  No one is threatening Russia directly so there's always options. There's lots of back channel deals that can happen.
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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #386 on: Thu, 23 June 2022, 11:19:11 »
There is a threshold for which n00cl3ar winter is not "soooo bad"

Theoretically, the Pudz can go right up to that limit, and then the ball is in our court,  and we pretty much HAVE to negotiate at that point in a weaker position, because the world has more to lose than the 1 country.

This is fundamentally why the most straightforward solution was to just let Pudz have Ukra1ne in the beginning. Then eventually a55a51na71ng him.

Now that the escalation spiral has begun,  it's lose lose.


Climate change is fundamentally a more pressing issue,  Rv551a is a bigger hurdle in this respect than anything else.    This is the PRIMARY reason why we MUST WIN.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #387 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 01:40:37 »
There is a threshold for which n00cl3ar winter is not "soooo bad"
No, no there is not.

Theoretically, the Pudz can go right up to that limit, and then the ball is in our court,  and we pretty much HAVE to negotiate at that point in a weaker position, because the world has more to lose than the 1 country.

This is fundamentally why the most straightforward solution was to just let Pudz have Ukra1ne in the beginning. Then eventually a55a51na71ng him.
What happens next week when he invades Finland or Norway, do we let him have some of that? What happens when he decides that's not enough? Sounds a whole lot like WW2 and it cannot be allowed to stand.

Taking out a world leader is actually "illegal" in the rules of war, especially when not directly at war, the thinking being you need the leaders to be around in order to end it.
And while you see it as a way to end things, the devil you know may be better than the devil you don't. If he dies it creates a power vacuum, who fills that vacuum? Last time Russia had one they got Stalin. Even if you think you know who succeeds him, you never know when a power struggle occurs, nor do you know what kind of government they will wind up with.

Also, you keep talking how NATO will fail, as if you think NATO is weak. If it was that weak Putin wouldn't be so fearful of it.



You don't have to give up land to allow him  to save face, you use back channels to arrange a deal where you trade something else for it. This was how they handled the Cuban Missile crisis, we traded old (soon to be retired) missiles for withdrawal, Russia claimed a win and we simply retired them early. I don't know what they can offer this time (oil in the Arctic?) or if Putin is even open to the idea yet, but that's a possibility and probably already happening.
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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #388 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 07:36:08 »

What happens next week when he invades Finland or Norway, do we let him have some of that? What happens when he decides that's not enough? Sounds a whole lot like WW2 and it cannot be allowed to stand.

Taking out a world leader is actually "illegal" in the rules of war, especially when not directly at war, the thinking being you need the leaders to be around in order to end it.
And while you see it as a way to end things, the devil you know may be better than the devil you don't. If he dies it creates a power vacuum, who fills that vacuum? Last time Russia had one they got Stalin. Even if you think you know who succeeds him, you never know when a power struggle occurs, nor do you know what kind of government they will wind up with.

Also, you keep talking how NATO will fail, as if you think NATO is weak. If it was that weak Putin wouldn't be so fearful of it.

You don't have to give up land to allow him  to save face,


YES, let him have finland/norway, it doesn't really matter, their terribad mismanagement/corruption will solve itself when those nations become increasingly unprofitable.

Taking out world leaders is NOT illegal,  it's more efficient than letting ~10 -100,000 u|<ran1ans die fighting this <under no guarantee of victory>.

The power vacuum is what it is we roll the dice everytime, it's an OK strategy, because we can keep rolling, but <in total> killing fewer people just at the top.

Na7o has already failed. it didn't stop this from happening. we've lost nearly every war (iraq,afghan,syri, etc) since the cold war.   We're putting up a brave face at the moment, but if we keep dragging this out, there is a high likelihood it'll be exactly like the others because we face the SAME problem as the Rv551ans, how do you definitively WIN a war, without k1lling everyone.

this modern concept of "war" is it goes on forever, until someone decides it's too big a waste of money.

FOR NOW,  Euro has decided, well let's try this,   but over time, there is no guarantee they'd want this to continue as it TANKS their e(onomy.   that (hi(ken sh17  Macaroni, is already talking about many capitulations.


The bigger danger here is also our political system at home, military spending means less infrastructure/ social spending,   This makes democrat presidents extremely unpopular,  What if the Repooplicants take the presidency again,   they already have supreme court and will likely take senate.   Then we're super scrooowed.

Our own gov is no less corrupt/ ineffectual..   our ONLY slight edge is tolerance of <a small degree> of free speech.



Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #389 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 08:29:58 »

this modern concept of "war" is it goes on forever, until someone decides it's too big a waste of money.


This is the biggest head-scratcher of all.

Stephen Pinker stated succinctly in his euphoric pre-Trump masterpiece (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature) that "war is simply bad for business". That book caused those of us who read it to feel exhilaration and hope that the planet was dawning into a brighter future. But those hopes were soon to be dashed by the emergence of the "Tea Party" and its hideous deformed offspring, Trumpism. 

The exception to the "bad for business" notion is, of course, of the "military-industrial complex" which has surged mightily in the decade since that book was written. As I repeat so often, the Republican Party has come full circle (well, actually half-circle) since Eisenhower, the last great Republican president, warned of the danger that exists not only here but in many countries, many of them decidedly unfriendly to us.

"A vital element in keeping the peace is our military establishment. Our arms must be might, ready for instant action, so that no potential aggressor may be tempted to risk his own destruction .... American makers of plowshares could, with time and as required, make swords as well. But now we can no longer risk emergency improvisation of national defense; we have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions .... This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience .... Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications .... In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist."
- Dwight D. Eisenhower 1961
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #390 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 10:14:30 »

YES, let him have finland/norway, it doesn't really matter, their terribad mismanagement/corruption will solve itself when those nations become increasingly unprofitable.
Wut?


Taking out world leaders is NOT illegal,  it's more efficient than letting ~10 -100,000 u|<ran1ans die fighting this <under no guarantee of victory>.
War isn't about efficiency.


Na7o has already failed. it didn't stop this from happening. we've lost nearly every war (iraq,afghan,syri, etc) since the cold war.   We're putting up a brave face at the moment, but if we keep dragging this out, there is a high likelihood it'll be exactly like the others because we face the SAME problem as the Rv551ans, how do you definitively WIN a war, without k1lling everyone.
Pretty sure not one of those countries is a NATO nation.

There is a long list of military actions/wars/skirmishes we performed that you missed.
Panama, Libya, Kuwait, Kosovo, Haiti, Bosnia, Lebanon... 
That's not even remotely close to a complete list and some of them, "we" won.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_armed_conflicts_involving_the_United_States


Side note, you say we lost Iraq, that's actually false.
We drove them out of Kuwait the first time, second time we also won and deposed the leader however it created the exact vacuum I described which is what we (and Iraq) have been fighting ever since.


Also it's not a modern version of war that goes on forever, history is full of decades and even centuries long wars, lack of war is abnormal, not the other way around. The period after WW2 is one of the most peaceful in the history of man and it was ushered in by the U.N. and NATO. They didn't fail, they did so well that people forgot what it was like prior to them existing.
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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #391 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 10:19:27 »
There is a long list of military actions/wars/skirmishes we performed that you missed.
Panama, Libya, Kuwait, Kosovo, Haiti, Bosnia, Lebanon... 

That's not even remotely close to a complete list and some of them, "we" won.

Side note, you say we lost Iraq, that's actually false.
We drove them out of Kuwait the first time, second time we also won and deposed the leader however it created the exact vacuum I described which is what we (and Iraq) have been fighting ever since.

We're using "won" very liberally here in the sense that , no they didn't get to kill all our guys,  and we're very good at killing their guys.

The Net effect from our involvement has primarily been negative for those regions. they are no stabler now than before.

You're right in that it's difficult to assign win/loss labels,  and that is precisely the point,  These conflicts can't be won in the traditional sense.   It just costs infinite money, (which we don't have), and what do we get for our trouble ?     FURTHER DELAYS from dealing with the climate crisis.

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #392 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 10:35:56 »

The period after WW2 is one of the most peaceful in the history of man and it was ushered in by the U.N. and NATO.
They didn't fail, they did so well that people forgot what it was like prior to them existing.


Pinker argued in his book (HIGHLY recommended!) that it was not an accident, but that the world was finally understanding the benefits of peace.
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #393 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 20:18:18 »
The Net effect from our involvement has primarily been negative for those regions. they are no stabler now than before.
And yet you still seem to think taking out Putin is going to turn out well.
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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #394 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 20:24:16 »
The Net effect from our involvement has primarily been negative for those regions. they are no stabler now than before.
And yet you still seem to think taking out Pudz is going to turn out well.


Tp4 can't know precisely how it'll turn out, but it is likely to be a better pace than the casualties in play right now.

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #395 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 20:50:20 »

you still seem to think taking out Putin is going to turn out well.


I think that taking out Putin will turn out well for the human race and the planet Earth.

But it would be a 3-ring ****ing nightmare for the people of Russia.

Even if someone just as bad, or even much worse, stepped in they would not have the power and influence and connections that Putin has and so would be mostly ineffectual. Or at least that's what I hope.

Or unless they unleashed The Bomb.
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #396 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 21:54:35 »
Even if someone just as bad, or even much worse, stepped in they would not have the power and influence and connections that Putin has and so would be mostly ineffectual. Or at least that's what I hope.
You hope.
Who do you think would prop this person up and put them in charge... The same people who did it to Putin.
It's not as though those people lost power, just the person.

Same here in the US, we have Mercers, Koch brothers, Rupert Murdock, George Soros... Almost no one gets in without kissing at least one ring along the way.


The difference is we have a very clear, well thought out chain of succession.
People like Putin do not usually appoint actual successors because they fear them trying to make a power grab. When that leader does finally fall it's a power grab and the worst usually rises to the top because they're the ones willing to do whatever it takes. Lenin specifically did not want Stalin to succeed him and yet look what happened.  Even here, Trump refused to even let Pence hold the crown for 45 minutes while undergoing a health screening.

What if Putin dies a hero the next guy is a die hard believer in Putin's vision for the future of Russia?
Unless you know all the players and their plans (I don't), you don't really know what you will get.
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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #397 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 21:57:54 »
LLann,  we don't know,  but we're reasonably sure it's better than killing ~100,000-200,000 U|<ran1ans.

Offline fohat.digs

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Re: U|<ra1ne 2o22
« Reply #398 on: Fri, 24 June 2022, 22:11:22 »

It's not as though those people lost power, just the person.


My impression, and I may be wrong, is that when Putin took the reins around the turn of the millennium, he began systematically assembling his support system from the top down (where he was already sitting from the start by virtue of his deal with Yeltsin).

From what I have read, he was not buoyed up from below like Drumph, but rather he created the network of sycophants below him by rewarding them with wealth. And that there was (and is) very little ideology involved except between his own ears.

 
“In future cases we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”
** by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 2022-06-24 **
- Griswold v. Connecticut is a 1965 decision that married couples have a right to privacy, including on decisions about contraception, and that a Connecticut law banning contraceptive access even for married couples was thus unconstitutional.
- Lawrence v. Texas was a 2003 decision striking down a Texas law banning sexual acts between people of the same sex.
- Obergefell v. Hodges was the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
What all of these decisions have in common beyond that they gave people rights that Thomas does not want them to have is that the court’s decisions invoked “substantive due process,” a legal argument Thomas thinks is in itself illegitimate.