Author Topic: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.  (Read 790 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Leslieann

  • * Elevated Elder
  • Thread Starter
  • Posts: 4069
So we all know about the chip shortage, it's why you can't buy a GPU or CPU, or ram, or a car, or pretty much anything...

We've now entered the second stage.
We're now experiencing shortages on all sorts of raw components and companies are desperate to keep things rolling and they will resort to whatever they can get and that's bad.

Some of you may have heard about some Asus motherboards blowing up, reports seem to indicate this was because a capacitor was installed backwards, manufacturers use optical sensors and photography to ensure these parts go on correct so what happened? The most likely scenario is that whoever supplies Asus with these capacitors ran dry and so Asus purchased from another manufacturer. This in itself is not a problem except the sensors (likely) couldn't properly read the polarity marker and instead of reprogramming the machine to identify them and having to reverse it again later Asus just disabled the sensor. Honestly this isn't a big deal so long as the person feeding the machine puts them in the correct way the sensors are just double and triple checking, except this time someone did put them in backwards and the machine wasn't checking and now we have fire.

Things happen, Asus is going to fix it.
The fact that they are working so hard to fix it right away is good, it's how companies work to resolve problems that matters and Asus is trying. I'm not trying to demonize them, they make good stuff, I have my own issues with them, but this is not one of them.


So why should you avoid anything electronic at the moment?
Because all companies are seeking out alternate suppliers.

Have you ever wondered why motherboard boxes used to make such a big deal about solid state capacitors?
Many moons ago in an act of corporate espionage China stole a capacitor formula from Japan, the problem was this formula wasn't complete and it caused capacitors to start to go bad after a year or two. For years companies like Dell had motherboards fail one after another because of these capacitors. Better companies such as Gigabyte and Asus responded by switching to solid state capacitors to get around the problem, alleviate fear and differentiate from those bad boards, it's only been a year or two they quit becoming a major selling point which is silly since everyone either switched to them or went bankrupt. Unfortunately I still see those bad formula capacitors in various electronics, usually very low quality ones because better companies will spend a bit more and buy better parts but those old leaky caps are still sitting in warehouses in China and are sold at bargain basement prices, it is China after all and if everything else is over priced and these are cheap, someone is going to buy them up. You can read more about the capacitor plague here.

As companies fight to keep supply lines going they are using alternate suppliers, you may not get plague capacitors (let's hope), but we will see more instances like Asus had. We're going to see garbage capacitors, recycled capacitors (we already see recycled GPUs and lcd screens in new systems and GPUs!) and much much more. And people will buy it, why? Because it's all they can get. Companies know this and many simply will not care, they'll ship it anyway and you will buy it. We are also going to see more and more garbage built hardware such as OEM GPUs, Dell recently shipped an RTX 3070 with a heatsink that looks like it was built for a old 700 series GTX GPU. A 200+ watt GPU with 100 watt heat sink, needless to say, it throttles like crazy and yet I guarantee you someone bought one and scalped that GPU for what they paid for the entire computer because of course they would.


So what brought this on?
I recently tried to buy a new car (HA!) and due to shortages I actually ended up with lightly used, certified model built in late 2019 instead, as I was driving home I got to thinking about Asus and realized it may have been one of the last cars built before shortages caused companies to skimp and prior to assembly lines running short staffed due to Covid or running with a bunch of miserable workers because they have Covid and worked anyway. I'm not sure I'd actually want a 2021 or 2022 vehicle because nothing is being assembled like it was 2 years ago.

At this point, even if I could find a new GPU, I wouldn't buy one. It's the same for cars, cell phones, TVs, motherboards and power supplies, this entire generation of parts is now questionable. If you can wait don't buy anything like this new if you can avoid it. When new parts do come out and the supply chain issues are fixed, don't go buying this generation either. Yes, some earlier parts are fine, and even some later parts are going to be fine but you have no idea which is which.  Do I question CPUs? No, they're super high tolerance and largely avoid the problem but you still need a motherboard to put it in, this is one of the dirty secrets of buying used hardware, you can find certain generations of CPUs really cheap but they're cheap because there's tons of cpus but no (cheap/functional) motherboards to put them in.

You're probably okay with parts made in 2020 as companies held out hope and used up existing inventory, but anything built in 2021 and going forward until all of this is completely resolved is going to be of questionable quality. If you can live with it possibly blowing up and suffering an early death go for it but I wouldn't make any long term product purchases right now.
Novelkeys NK65AE w/62g Zilents/39g springs
More
62g Zilents/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, pic
| Filco MJ2 L.E. Vortex Case, Jailhouse Blues, heavily customized
More
Vortex case squared up/blasted finish removed/custom feet/paint/winkey blockoff plate, HID Liberator, stainless steel universal plate, 3d printed adapters, Type C, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, foam sound dampened, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps (o-ringed), Cherry Jailhouse Blues w/lubed/clipped Cherry light springs, 40g actuation
| GMMK TKL
More
w/ Kailh Purple Pros/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 Magnetic cable
| PF65 3d printed 65% w/LCD and hot swap
More
Box Jades, Interchangeable trim, mini lcd, QMK, underglow, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, O-rings, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, in progress link
| Magicforce 68
More
MF68 pcb, Outemu Blues, in progress
| YMDK75 Jail Housed Gateron Blues
More
J-spacers, YMDK Thick PBT, O-rings, SIP sockets
| KBT Race S L.E.
More
Ergo Clears, custom WASD caps
| Das Pro
More
Costar model with browns
| GH60
More
Cherry Blacks, custom 3d printed case
| Logitech Illumininated | IBM Model M (x2)
Definitive Omron Guide.

Offline suicidal_orange

  • * Global Moderator
  • Posts: 4458
  • Location: England
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #1 on: Sat, 08 January 2022, 12:00:36 »
With this in mind am I right in thinking if you must buy a motherboard you'd may as well buy cheap and plan to replace it sooner or will companies still be trying slightly harder with QC on high end models?  The Asus fire scenario is scary and my computer hasn't died for years so I'm sure it will soon.
120/100g linear Zealio R1  
GMK Hyperfuse
'Split everything' perfection  
MX Clear
SA Hack'd by Geeks     
EasyAVR mod

Offline Leslieann

  • * Elevated Elder
  • Thread Starter
  • Posts: 4069
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #2 on: Sat, 08 January 2022, 13:28:06 »
Sort of...

Intel board will work with only 1-2 generations, after that they stop making them. It's bad they stop making them but good in that at least we know good from bad.
AMD tend to last longer, good if buying new later but will make it more difficult to identify bad ones later.
Novelkeys NK65AE w/62g Zilents/39g springs
More
62g Zilents/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, pic
| Filco MJ2 L.E. Vortex Case, Jailhouse Blues, heavily customized
More
Vortex case squared up/blasted finish removed/custom feet/paint/winkey blockoff plate, HID Liberator, stainless steel universal plate, 3d printed adapters, Type C, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, foam sound dampened, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps (o-ringed), Cherry Jailhouse Blues w/lubed/clipped Cherry light springs, 40g actuation
| GMMK TKL
More
w/ Kailh Purple Pros/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 Magnetic cable
| PF65 3d printed 65% w/LCD and hot swap
More
Box Jades, Interchangeable trim, mini lcd, QMK, underglow, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, O-rings, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, in progress link
| Magicforce 68
More
MF68 pcb, Outemu Blues, in progress
| YMDK75 Jail Housed Gateron Blues
More
J-spacers, YMDK Thick PBT, O-rings, SIP sockets
| KBT Race S L.E.
More
Ergo Clears, custom WASD caps
| Das Pro
More
Costar model with browns
| GH60
More
Cherry Blacks, custom 3d printed case
| Logitech Illumininated | IBM Model M (x2)
Definitive Omron Guide.

Offline suicidal_orange

  • * Global Moderator
  • Posts: 4458
  • Location: England
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #3 on: Sat, 08 January 2022, 16:07:29 »
I know about the generations and am quite happy on my Z97 so whatever forced upgrade I have to make next was hoped to last for five years, as this one nearly has.  It was supposed to be the best AMD APU and 2x16GB DDR5 meaning if the mobo did die chances are I could pick up a newer one and carry on with the same CPU and RAM.  But if it's going to be crap I could just buy a cheap B series chipset instead of something upper mid tier, then when things return to "normal" pick up a nice mobo and maybe it would last five years from then.  Though if DDR5 remains practically vapourware maybe I should be picking up something from 2020 now before everyone else does.  I've joked for years that something will die meaning I have to buy some DDR4 just before it's obsolete (my first and last DDR3 is in my Z97) but never thought I'd be considering doing so because of a human virus!
« Last Edit: Sat, 08 January 2022, 16:09:24 by suicidal_orange »
120/100g linear Zealio R1  
GMK Hyperfuse
'Split everything' perfection  
MX Clear
SA Hack'd by Geeks     
EasyAVR mod

Offline pixelpusher

  • * Elevated Elder
  • Posts: 3848
  • Location: Tennessee - USA
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #4 on: Sat, 08 January 2022, 16:20:47 »
Okay, that makes sense if you're wanting to upgrade a product.  But if you dont have a GPU, or a TV, or a car... you can't really wait a few years.  So just buy knowing it's not idea circumstances or buy used from 2019 or prior :(
« Last Edit: Sat, 08 January 2022, 16:37:05 by pixelpusher »

Offline Leslieann

  • * Elevated Elder
  • Thread Starter
  • Posts: 4069
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #5 on: Sat, 08 January 2022, 17:29:09 »
I know about the generations and am quite happy on my Z97 so whatever forced upgrade I have to make next was hoped to last for five years, as this one nearly has. 
I actually get annoyed when I see a system I built for someone fail to last at least 7 years with no more than a drive replacement.
This is one reason I also always spec a larger PSU than necessary, they tend to lose some capacity as they age. Last time I saw the system, my first 750 watt PSU was nearing 15 years old and still running an AMD R9 270 for a customer.

Note, If you get frequent brown outs or spikes, invest in an UPS, preferably with power regulation, those kill power supplies which kill your system.


BTW I run a lot of older hardware in my home/shop, much of it as old or older than your system.
1x 5th gen I5 laptop (my personal laptop) (6 years old)
1x 4th gen I3 laptop   (7 years olds)
5x 3rd gen processors (8 years old)
2x 2nd gen celerons  (9 years old)
1x AMD FX hex core GPU test bench (12 years old?)
Novelkeys NK65AE w/62g Zilents/39g springs
More
62g Zilents/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, pic
| Filco MJ2 L.E. Vortex Case, Jailhouse Blues, heavily customized
More
Vortex case squared up/blasted finish removed/custom feet/paint/winkey blockoff plate, HID Liberator, stainless steel universal plate, 3d printed adapters, Type C, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, foam sound dampened, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps (o-ringed), Cherry Jailhouse Blues w/lubed/clipped Cherry light springs, 40g actuation
| GMMK TKL
More
w/ Kailh Purple Pros/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 Magnetic cable
| PF65 3d printed 65% w/LCD and hot swap
More
Box Jades, Interchangeable trim, mini lcd, QMK, underglow, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, O-rings, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, in progress link
| Magicforce 68
More
MF68 pcb, Outemu Blues, in progress
| YMDK75 Jail Housed Gateron Blues
More
J-spacers, YMDK Thick PBT, O-rings, SIP sockets
| KBT Race S L.E.
More
Ergo Clears, custom WASD caps
| Das Pro
More
Costar model with browns
| GH60
More
Cherry Blacks, custom 3d printed case
| Logitech Illumininated | IBM Model M (x2)
Definitive Omron Guide.

Offline tp4tissue

  • * Destiny Supporter
  • Posts: 13380
  • Location: Official Geekhack Public Defender..
  • OmniExpert of: Rice, Top-Ramen, Ergodox, n Females
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #6 on: Sat, 08 January 2022, 21:44:54 »
The motherboards are where the price advantage evaporates for older gen.

haswell kind of is ok, because you can cheap out on the mobo and still get decent OC.  sandy, ivy, ____  coffeelake and above must have good boards..

Non-K is not an option because they gated performance so steeply.

Offline suicidal_orange

  • * Global Moderator
  • Posts: 4458
  • Location: England
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #7 on: Sun, 09 January 2022, 04:00:06 »
I run a lot of older hardware in my home/shop, much of it as old or older than your system.
1x 5th gen I5 laptop (my personal laptop) (6 years old)
1x 4th gen I3 laptop   (7 years olds)
5x 3rd gen processors (8 years old)
2x 2nd gen celerons  (9 years old)
1x AMD FX hex core GPU test bench (12 years old?)
This is reassuring.  My CPU was probably abused in it's early life (it's an i7-4890HQ unlocked laptop chip on an adaptor sold as an overclocking beast) and setting a core voltage in BIOS gives inaccurate readings so I'm not 100% confident in the pin mapping - it's lasting pretty well all things considered.

Trying to write this made me think back to what died of what but it's so long ago I don't remember.  What happened to the Pentium D board with a hardware vdroop mod?  I remember selling a CPU and mobo to a friend and giving him the PSU because I didn't trust it and he ran it for at least a year so can't have been too bad, but I think that was a Core 2 quad ES. 

Then I had a 2600K setup bought Jan 2012 which died, the CPU was sold on ebay to a happy buyer so it wasn't that.  I bought my first fanless 400W June 2013 for some reason (distrusting the gifted one?) then bought another identical PSU in November 2016 which was probably to test this combo's death.

Then in June 2018 I returned one of the PSUs due to coil whine, they have a 10 year warranty and I only use one at a time so could have been either of them but assumedly I would have had the 2018 one in the system due to laziness.  Though if I just pulled the cables out the side to test and it was still dead would I bother with all the screws?  When that PSU was sent away I would have put the other one in and probably it "worked", but maybe that was the one that killed the 2600K mobo.

Next build was the short lived i7-5775C where the CPU cracked and burned after a year but the mobo still worked last I tried.  Following this timeline I could have a new from warranty PSU in a box somewhere while I'm running one that was used for 3.5 years before it's current 4 year stretch.  Unless I swapped it to test the 5775, but that died slowly and painfully (no GPU then only booting sometimes then nothing) so it never looked like a PSU problem.  But if I did make that swap in the box could be a PSU that has killed a mobo and CPU...  My head hurts.

Also sorry for going way off topic but at least this important info gets bumped.

Edit:  Found the spare PSU, it's definitely not BNIB as it has a big scratch and no "new" smell despite being in a sealed box.  Not sure that helps.
« Last Edit: Sun, 09 January 2022, 06:47:07 by suicidal_orange »
120/100g linear Zealio R1  
GMK Hyperfuse
'Split everything' perfection  
MX Clear
SA Hack'd by Geeks     
EasyAVR mod

Offline Leslieann

  • * Elevated Elder
  • Thread Starter
  • Posts: 4069
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #8 on: Sun, 09 January 2022, 11:56:12 »
I'm glad it set your mind at ease a bit and this is quite relevant to the topic, longevity is a large part of what I was getting at.


CPU manufacturing is extremely tightly controlled, whereas a motherboard is not only fragile it has parts all sourced from various places and suppliers (lowest bidder) often put together by someone else. Even if you include overclocking, for every cpu I've seen fail I've probably seen 10 or more of everything else fail, it's just not that common. You say yours suffered abuse, it would have much more likely failed in the past, not now. I will say though that if it was to fail from that abuse now it would most likely be a gradual decline in stability, temporarily fixable by lowering clock speeds more and more before it ultimately just becomes unusable. This can happen fast or slow but slow enough for you to notice, it would most likely not just up and die.



Regarding your psu...
If that PSU killed a board, it would have killed this one by now, it's very likely it was the MB that failed. In my experience, even average quality PSUs in general fail less frequently than good motherboards and one thing they pretty much never do is kill one board and allow the next to live happily for years, that's not a PSU problem. 

When you send in a part for warranty they do not guarantee you will get a brand new one, you usually get one that has been tested to be sure it works (I always try and return it to the store and get a new one). They get tons of returns that are perfectly fine or just need some minor fix, the concern is that some companies do not actually test anything and just send it out a second or even third time before writing it off (stores also do this but when they do it it's called open box so at least you know what you are getting). I once got a warrantied motherboard from a major brand name with 4 dead memory slots...

The PSU you're using has lasted this long, don't mess with it unless you're having stability issues, maybe load up something to watch voltages, see if they fluctuate but otherwise I wouldn't touch it. It's a known quantity at this point, unlike your boxed one. I also wouldn't use that PSU in the box without first using it on some other (disposable) hardware first and watching voltage stability in bios. That's by no means a thorough PSU test but it's better than nothing. But why change what works and put your system at risk.


Honestly, my primary concern with your system's age is the drives, a stable system is a happy system but hard drives are sneaky little sh*ts.
if you haven't done so, read through this thread.
https://geekhack.org/index.php?topic=115792.0
Novelkeys NK65AE w/62g Zilents/39g springs
More
62g Zilents/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, pic
| Filco MJ2 L.E. Vortex Case, Jailhouse Blues, heavily customized
More
Vortex case squared up/blasted finish removed/custom feet/paint/winkey blockoff plate, HID Liberator, stainless steel universal plate, 3d printed adapters, Type C, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, foam sound dampened, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps (o-ringed), Cherry Jailhouse Blues w/lubed/clipped Cherry light springs, 40g actuation
| GMMK TKL
More
w/ Kailh Purple Pros/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 Magnetic cable
| PF65 3d printed 65% w/LCD and hot swap
More
Box Jades, Interchangeable trim, mini lcd, QMK, underglow, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, O-rings, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, in progress link
| Magicforce 68
More
MF68 pcb, Outemu Blues, in progress
| YMDK75 Jail Housed Gateron Blues
More
J-spacers, YMDK Thick PBT, O-rings, SIP sockets
| KBT Race S L.E.
More
Ergo Clears, custom WASD caps
| Das Pro
More
Costar model with browns
| GH60
More
Cherry Blacks, custom 3d printed case
| Logitech Illumininated | IBM Model M (x2)
Definitive Omron Guide.

Offline suicidal_orange

  • * Global Moderator
  • Posts: 4458
  • Location: England
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #9 on: Sun, 09 January 2022, 13:50:09 »
The replacement PSU was new - Seasonic are (or at least were) good and it's 80+Platinum rated and well reviewed as top tier.  I have no need for big watts but never cheap out on a PSU (these use caps too - you really don't want a covid affected PSU :eek:)  I am no keener to mess about with screws and wiring now than at any other time so it's staying in the box.  I'll have to find a sacrificial system to test it in though I must have thought it was OK when put it in the box or I'd have binned it instead.

Just looked at my spinner against the SMART stuff you were talking about in the other thread, UDMA_CRC_Error_Count = 0 which is good but your closing statement "don't think I've ever actually seen a drive with a read error (line 01) or write error (line C8) that didn't also have other more concerning problems." is scary as my read is slightly(!) more than 0, though it matches the ECC recovered value (195) so maybe this is due to the bad cable last year?

Code: [Select]
ID# ATTRIBUTE_NAME          FLAG     VALUE WORST THRESH TYPE      UPDATED  WHEN_FAILED RAW_VALUE
  1 Raw_Read_Error_Rate     0x000f   080   065   006    Pre-fail  Always       -       115320735
  3 Spin_Up_Time            0x0003   097   096   000    Pre-fail  Always       -       0
  4 Start_Stop_Count        0x0032   092   092   020    Old_age   Always       -       9057
  5 Reallocated_Sector_Ct   0x0033   100   100   010    Pre-fail  Always       -       0
  7 Seek_Error_Rate         0x000f   066   060   045    Pre-fail  Always       -       4560972
  9 Power_On_Hours          0x0032   093   093   000    Old_age   Always       -       6585
 10 Spin_Retry_Count        0x0013   100   100   097    Pre-fail  Always       -       0
 12 Power_Cycle_Count       0x0032   098   098   020    Old_age   Always       -       3029
183 Runtime_Bad_Block       0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
184 End-to-End_Error        0x0032   100   100   099    Old_age   Always       -       0
187 Reported_Uncorrect      0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
188 Command_Timeout         0x0032   100   099   000    Old_age   Always       -       2 2 2
189 High_Fly_Writes         0x003a   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
190 Airflow_Temperature_Cel 0x0022   074   056   040    Old_age   Always       -       26 (Min/Max 15/26)
193 Load_Cycle_Count        0x0032   096   096   000    Old_age   Always       -       9108
194 Temperature_Celsius     0x0022   026   010   000    Old_age   Always       -       26 (0 10 0 0 0)
195 Hardware_ECC_Recovered  0x001a   005   002   000    Old_age   Always       -       115320735
197 Current_Pending_Sector  0x0012   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
198 Offline_Uncorrectable   0x0010   100   100   000    Old_age   Offline      -       0
199 UDMA_CRC_Error_Count    0x003e   200   200   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
240 Head_Flying_Hours       0x0000   100   253   000    Old_age   Offline      -       1315h+05m+38.471s
241 Total_LBAs_Written      0x0000   100   253   000    Old_age   Offline      -       4059874633
242 Total_LBAs_Read         0x0000   100   253   000    Old_age   Offline      -       2704335500
My SATA SSD boot drive also has read errors, though way less.
Code: [Select]
ID# ATTRIBUTE_NAME          FLAG     VALUE WORST THRESH TYPE      UPDATED  WHEN_FAILED RAW_VALUE
  1 Raw_Read_Error_Rate     0x002f   100   100   000    Pre-fail  Always       -       76
  5 Reallocate_NAND_Blk_Cnt 0x0032   100   100   010    Old_age   Always       -       0
  9 Power_On_Hours          0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       4114
 12 Power_Cycle_Count       0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       4606
171 Program_Fail_Count      0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
172 Erase_Fail_Count        0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
173 Ave_Block-Erase_Count   0x0032   097   097   000    Old_age   Always       -       115
174 Unexpect_Power_Loss_Ct  0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       257
180 Unused_Reserve_NAND_Blk 0x0033   100   100   000    Pre-fail  Always       -       59
183 SATA_Interfac_Downshift 0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       2
184 Error_Correction_Count  0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
187 Reported_Uncorrect      0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
194 Temperature_Celsius     0x0022   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       34
196 Reallocated_Event_Count 0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
197 Current_Pending_ECC_Cnt 0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
198 Offline_Uncorrectable   0x0030   100   100   000    Old_age   Offline      -       0
199 UDMA_CRC_Error_Count    0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       6364
202 Percent_Lifetime_Remain 0x0030   097   097   001    Old_age   Offline      -       3
206 Write_Error_Rate        0x000e   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
210 Success_RAIN_Recov_Cnt  0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       0
246 Total_LBAs_Written      0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       17058310789
247 Host_Program_Page_Count 0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       154716591
248 FTL_Program_Page_Count  0x0032   100   100   000    Old_age   Always       -       207130153

Should I be scared?
120/100g linear Zealio R1  
GMK Hyperfuse
'Split everything' perfection  
MX Clear
SA Hack'd by Geeks     
EasyAVR mod

Offline Leslieann

  • * Elevated Elder
  • Thread Starter
  • Posts: 4069
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #10 on: Sun, 09 January 2022, 17:55:04 »
Just looked at my spinner against the SMART stuff you were talking about in the other thread, UDMA_CRC_Error_Count = 0 which is good but your closing statement "don't think I've ever actually seen a drive with a read error (line 01) or write error (line C8) that didn't also have other more concerning problems." is scary as my read is slightly(!) more than 0, though it matches the ECC recovered value (195) so maybe this is due to the bad cable last year?
I think you or I lost something in our interpretation or what you copied was taken out or context.

Hopefully this is a better explanation.
If there's bad read/write/ECC/CRC without bad sectors = almost always the cable.
If there's bad read/write/ECC/CRC with bad sectors = failing drive.

I was trying to say that while you should watch read/write (and EC/CRC) because it points to problems you need to address, you shouldn't freak out just because of that number. It's when they're tied to sector issues (I.E. more concerning problems) that you need to worry because those indicate drive failure and possible data loss. Cables are a cheap/easy fix compared to a drive and usually Windows will usually alert you when it fails to read or write after a retry or two, no alert means it probably was successful on later attempts, basically it just slows down your system and adds a number on the drive. Hence, needing to watch, but not freak out.


I'm sure your issue was the cable.
The one thing I will recommend is to come back in a week and compare the numbers again.
Are the errors growing, and if so how fast, some growth is normal, if it's growing fast then you have another problem. If a specific error is on both drives its probably a board or driver issue. If a specific error is only one then it's cable or drive issue.


Other than checking the stats in a week, if this was my box, I wouldn't mess with it at all, it's as healthy as I can determine and any attempt to mess with it could introduce problems that were not there, as the saying goes, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it".
Novelkeys NK65AE w/62g Zilents/39g springs
More
62g Zilents/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, pic
| Filco MJ2 L.E. Vortex Case, Jailhouse Blues, heavily customized
More
Vortex case squared up/blasted finish removed/custom feet/paint/winkey blockoff plate, HID Liberator, stainless steel universal plate, 3d printed adapters, Type C, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, foam sound dampened, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps (o-ringed), Cherry Jailhouse Blues w/lubed/clipped Cherry light springs, 40g actuation
| GMMK TKL
More
w/ Kailh Purple Pros/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 Magnetic cable
| PF65 3d printed 65% w/LCD and hot swap
More
Box Jades, Interchangeable trim, mini lcd, QMK, underglow, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, O-rings, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, in progress link
| Magicforce 68
More
MF68 pcb, Outemu Blues, in progress
| YMDK75 Jail Housed Gateron Blues
More
J-spacers, YMDK Thick PBT, O-rings, SIP sockets
| KBT Race S L.E.
More
Ergo Clears, custom WASD caps
| Das Pro
More
Costar model with browns
| GH60
More
Cherry Blacks, custom 3d printed case
| Logitech Illumininated | IBM Model M (x2)
Definitive Omron Guide.

Offline suicidal_orange

  • * Global Moderator
  • Posts: 4458
  • Location: England
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #11 on: Wed, 12 January 2022, 10:53:50 »
Barely used my computer but thought I'd check anyway - no change on the SSD but the spinner still seems unhappy
Code: [Select]
  1 Raw_Read_Error_Rate     0x000f   080   065   006    Pre-fail  Always       -       116724664
up from
  1 Raw_Read_Error_Rate     0x000f   080   065   006    Pre-fail  Always       -       115320735

Hardware ECC is still catching them all but I will re-check/replace the cable.

No friendly messages from windows here, I'm a lazy Linux user who only thinks about system logs when the partition is full :-[
120/100g linear Zealio R1  
GMK Hyperfuse
'Split everything' perfection  
MX Clear
SA Hack'd by Geeks     
EasyAVR mod

Offline Sintpinty

  • Carbon Based Life Form
  • Posts: 1616
  • Location: A can of beans in the cupboard
  • She/they/it
    • My Roblox Profile
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #12 on: Thu, 13 January 2022, 09:47:18 »
Goddammit what am i going to do with my graduation money now

Offline fohat.digs

  • * Elevated Elder
  • Posts: 6156
  • Location: 3555'N, 8353'W
  • weird funny old guy
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #13 on: Thu, 13 January 2022, 09:52:57 »
Buy a really good 2-year-old laptop.
But no matter how much smoking-gun evidence Cheney and the January 6 committee uncover, the Fox News crowd and YouTube rabbitholers are dead to the factual world. Their views will never change, and roughly two-thirds of them are still convinced Trump was the rightful winner in 2020, despite his year-long drought of producing a single shred of evidence to back his claim. Frankly, Cheney doesn't have the luxury of time to waste on a bunch of brain dead zombies.
Instead, Cheney made her goals perfectly clear this week, signaling that the committee would produce the evidence necessary to find Trump, and perhaps several of his co-conspirators, criminally liable for violating felony statute 18 U.S. Code 1512. To that end, Cheney used every public platform available to her this week to lay the groundwork for her case.
Kelley Eleveld 2021-12-18

Offline Darthbaggins

  • Posts: 482
  • Location: Acworth, GA
  • PC Cannibal
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #14 on: Fri, 14 January 2022, 08:58:05 »
This is why I bought into the Intel HEDT line-up when I did, has been one of the best investments over the long-haul.  But with as spotty as materials have been, since it impacts my work as well it has directed me in where I need to avoid etc.

 bkrownd:"Those damned rubber chiclet keys are the devil's nipples."   >:D


Offline Leslieann

  • * Elevated Elder
  • Thread Starter
  • Posts: 4069
Re: Chip shortage? Here's why you shouldn't buy anything electronic now.
« Reply #15 on: Fri, 14 January 2022, 09:03:40 »
Goddammit what am i going to do with my graduation money now
Depends on what you want.

Mechanical keyboards are at least semi immune to the problem and easily repaired in most cases.

Console gaming systems, good luck. Considering their history and scalping, a console is probably one of the worst things to buy at the moment.

Cars lose 20-30% of their value in the first  two years.
Buy a certified used from a reputable dealer which will carry a full warranty. Good: Toyota/Lexus/Honda/Acura Bad: Hyundai/Kia (never again, good cars, terrible company/dealers).
Be prepared for sticker shock... Used prices in many cases are almost DOUBLE what they were 2 years ago, new HAHAHAHAHAHA. Don't expect used prices to fall back to normal in a year or even two, it took the better part of a decade for prices to return to normal after the Cars for Cash (clunker program).

Gaming laptops are in the midst of some significant changes (refresh rates), honestly, I'd wait on them to sort things out.
General computing laptops haven't significantly changed in several years other hand cores, and in general an older core I5 is more than enough in most cases. You can save TONS here, just get 16gigs (or more) and try and get something with M.2 if you can. The Lenovo T450 is probably the best bang for the buck used system you can buy (T440 only has single ram slot, T460 only has a better cpu). The only sore spot is a lack of M.2 (use sata) and the trackpad which is coated glass and flakes off (a razor can be used to scrape off the remaining coating).
Novelkeys NK65AE w/62g Zilents/39g springs
More
62g Zilents/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, pic
| Filco MJ2 L.E. Vortex Case, Jailhouse Blues, heavily customized
More
Vortex case squared up/blasted finish removed/custom feet/paint/winkey blockoff plate, HID Liberator, stainless steel universal plate, 3d printed adapters, Type C, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, foam sound dampened, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps (o-ringed), Cherry Jailhouse Blues w/lubed/clipped Cherry light springs, 40g actuation
| GMMK TKL
More
w/ Kailh Purple Pros/lubed/Novelkeys 39g springs, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, Netdot Gen10 Magnetic cable
| PF65 3d printed 65% w/LCD and hot swap
More
Box Jades, Interchangeable trim, mini lcd, QMK, underglow, HK Gaming Thick PBT caps, O-rings, Netdot Gen10 magnetic cable, in progress link
| Magicforce 68
More
MF68 pcb, Outemu Blues, in progress
| YMDK75 Jail Housed Gateron Blues
More
J-spacers, YMDK Thick PBT, O-rings, SIP sockets
| KBT Race S L.E.
More
Ergo Clears, custom WASD caps
| Das Pro
More
Costar model with browns
| GH60
More
Cherry Blacks, custom 3d printed case
| Logitech Illumininated | IBM Model M (x2)
Definitive Omron Guide.