Here's the latest update.
The lead time for chips was something like 4 weeks last year, 6 weeks in January, 11 weeks by June.. It's now at 22(!) weeks with no sign of slowing.
Some companies are now being accused of hoarding, no one is naming names but the one being whispered is Nvidia (though I suspect Apple is also to blame). It's also now come out that not only are companies hoarding but companies are now ordering a YEARs worth in advance out of fears the line will get even longer... Causing even longer lines. Keep in mind, around 2024-2025 they expect demand to outstrip supply, so they have 6-12 months (assuming the lead time keeps growing at current rate) to catch up before it's lost until the new fabs open in 20025 and 2026. As I said in past updates, I'm not holding my breath they get it fixed in time to catch up.
Cars
Car dealers in my area are so short on cars some cannot even keep the spots along the street full let alone lots or even the showroom(!). Volkswagon is at like 20% capacity. Chevy had employee cars in the lot to make it look more full.... What has come out is car manufacturers are using OOOOOOLD chips, so old the fabs have to shut down to reconfigure to make them. The manufacturers abandoned orders to cut costs when Covid hit, not aware once they cancel they can't just jump back in line, instead they start at the end. Manufacturers are angry with car manufacturers because it takes so long to switch over, car manufacturers are crying victim, not wanting to update... Instead of figuring out how to use more modern chips took a different tact, they bought the sand mines and are more or less trying to blackmail their way way into cutting the line and chip makers aren't having it and it could create a standoff. Some say they won't upgrade because of reliability, I'm sorry, but we aren't talking about 4 year old chips, he car companies want 10-15 year old chips. We have newer stuff, they just don't want to use it, some say because cost... Again, BS. One newer chip can do what 4 old ones could, and you can cut costs elsewhere as well on all the necessary connectors and power modulation, etc... But also, we're talking PENNIES, not hundreds of dollars.
Car companies HAAATE actual innovation, once you look at them through that lens it all starts to make sense. They do it their way and they hate having to change it once they figure out out how to pinch every last bit of profit. I have some news for car companies though... They may own the nearby mines, but sand is the most common thing on earth and chip makers will find a way. They don't need car companies but car companies need them, other industries need chips, not more cars so if a standoff happens, expect chip prices to rise and car companies to fall. We may see some car companies fall regardless. As a result, Chevy has idled some plants, Mitsubishi left the US market until they can get enough chips.. Meanwhile Ford is introducing new models but have no stock to actually sell and dealers are taking on a $10k extra charge (or more) on new cars to make up the for the losses.
Computers..
Companies are are short changing all systems, often for zero reason other than money, and by this I mean more than normal. I tried to find an I5 or I7 or AMD equivalent for an office the other day with 16gigs ram and 512gb ssd... Not even with a GPU... yeah right. It was either 256gb ssd or 8gb ram. In 2021. And even then the price was stupid, $700 for that? Get bent. Worse still, the systems were garbage, using too many proprietary parts (making them disposable). Dell and them all know you will buy whatever junk they offer right now and a whole lot of it is just that, junk. Good luck if you want a gpu as well. I saw a 1660 on "sale" for $550, but hey, it was in stock but only because no one was stupid enough to buy it. Avoid buying a prebuilt if you can if at all avoid it.