The Economic Collapse

[tp4tissue]

It seems people are still in denial about the reality of Global Economic Recession.

Please observe this graph,  ENERGY and GDP has NEVER diverged. It simply can not.



Anything you can possible do or intend to do, REQUIRES energy.


Every year, Developed countries only manage 1-3% GDP.  Even Wizard-China, which maintained crazy 15-20% growth has slowed down to only 3-5% post Magic.

20% of global energy (25% of seaborne oil, 20% of LNG) comes out of the Middle East.


WHAT do you suppose is the consequence of a SUDDEN-contraction of this magnitude.


Even if the US withdrew all forces tomorrow,  we would STILL have to negotiate with 1R nto. We chose to atk THEM,

Their Published List of demands:

- That US and 1 srlt , recognize 1Rnto's rights
- That 1Rnto is paid REPARATIONS for the damage to the country and the people we killed.
- Security guarantee that no future wars such as this will ever happen again.


Do you think something this complicated can be negotiated in anything less than 1 month, 2 months, 6 months, 2-3 years?

When oil projections for 1 month is at $200-300 / barrel, $500-600 at 6-8 weeks.  Basic gasoline price will be $10-$25,  Don't forget about diesel, those amazon packages don't arrive by magic.


1 rnto also already has a Tri-lateral agreement with Rvss and China, as a key-founder of BRICS membership,

So you've got SUPER COMPLICATED, negotiations ahead.



NOW,  what they can do is,  IN THEORY, release the choke hold on the StraitofH for the time being DURING negotiations as good faith, 

BUT Would they do that? They can hold it until November, Put the US and Europe into economic meltdown, and take their sweet time watching us burn.

,
The GUY, that they've got in charge now, the ayatlll'4's son,  We bombed his father, his wife, and his baby daughter (3x confirmed dead),  apparently his own legs got blown off (unconfirmed), and he's severely injured.



JUST Sayn',  Blackrock preventing withdraws, what's next.

[noisyturtle]

I don't think it is an economic collapse, but a consolidation of wealth. Elimination of the middle class was always their plan, the ultra wealthy are just able to speedrun it now since they are using cheat modes to bypass corruption filters.

[tp4tissue]

Failure to understand Scaling.


If you have 100 Fuel, you can produce 100 units.

If you have 80 Fuel, you may only be able to produce 40-50 units.


A $1500 PC produce 400fps @ x-settings (9070xt)

A $1200 PC may only produce 100-200fps @ x-settings (4060)


The-Quality-Of-Life, GDP+etcetera, DIMINISHED, will FAR EXCEED that of a 20% reduction in Energy


They will masssage the numbers,  but that will NOT change the underlying physical effects (MEGA INFLATION).


The Rate-of-reduction in energy by THIS EVENT, is 100x that of the Oil Crisis in the 70s.


Buy everything YOU_NEED, NOW, Immediately, it can only get worse. (RICE, Machine tools, PCs, Television, Washing Machine, Oven)

DO NOT BUY, High luxury tax items, especially among categories you don't need.

[tp4tissue]

Hhmm... 

This is basically game over for the American Economy.

We will almost certainly have to Default.


Positive:

We're doing stupid things with oil,  now we can't.

The Petro-Dollar did not belong TO US, we are the Robbers/Parasites upon Mid-Ease oil.  Now it rightly goes back to them.

A more equal world, a more humbling experience.

Potential upside is there,

We go back to a production based economy, we-succeed, free education, fair compensation, you can buy a house and feed your kids.

We beh3 ad a bunch of Billionaires.


Negative:

Possible Dystopia

_US, could go into a state of totalitarianism. TechBro-Feudalism

_Transitional Massive Unemployment.
_The US economy is consumption based, and it finances that consumption by issuing DEBT, DEBT that is pushed forward using MID-EASE petro-dollar recycling.

_Women/Blacks/Latinos will be severely-marginalized, if not outright enslaved
_South Indian/Chinese immigrants might get a slightly better status due to their technical expertise, but over time, they will almost 100% leave.

_Civil war possible
_Racial purges

_Suburbia will erode within 3 years to become unlivable under high energy costs. _if you drive to the grocery store, imagine adding $15-20 of gas to every weekend drive.
_Cities will become the default living space, for efficiency sake, but because of high energy cost, it will mostly be slum like conditions for most people.



_The US will attempt to go back to a production base, but it simply can't compete, as the civilian population is already too old, too lazy, too fat, too uneducated.
_The transition fails, we enter a mad-monarch scenario.


Countries like FRANCE/ JAPAN will also go down in flames, they will also have to DEFAULT.


MOST COUNTRIES, that DO NOT have their own oil, will have to refinance using the YUAN through sips.