The Economic Collapse

[tp4tissue]

It seems people are still in denial about the reality of Global Economic Recession.

Please observe this graph,  ENERGY and GDP has NEVER diverged. It simply can not.



Anything you can possible do or intend to do, REQUIRES energy.


Every year, Developed countries only manage 1-3% GDP.  Even Wizard-China, which maintained crazy 15-20% growth has slowed down to only 3-5% post Magic.

20% of global energy (25% of seaborne oil, 20% of LNG) comes out of the Middle East.


WHAT do you suppose is the consequence of a SUDDEN-contraction of this magnitude.


Even if the US withdrew all forces tomorrow,  we would STILL have to negotiate with 1R nto. We chose to atk THEM,

Their Published List of demands:

- That US and 1 srlt , recognize 1Rnto's rights
- That 1Rnto is paid REPARATIONS for the damage to the country and the people we killed.
- Security guarantee that no future wars such as this will ever happen again.


Do you think something this complicated can be negotiated in anything less than 1 month, 2 months, 6 months, 2-3 years?

When oil projections for 1 month is at $200-300 / barrel, $500-600 at 6-8 weeks.  Basic gasoline price will be $10-$25,  Don't forget about diesel, those amazon packages don't arrive by magic.


1 rnto also already has a Tri-lateral agreement with Rvss and China, as a key-founder of BRICS membership,

So you've got SUPER COMPLICATED, negotiations ahead.



NOW,  what they can do is,  IN THEORY, release the choke hold on the StraitofH for the time being DURING negotiations as good faith, 

BUT Would they do that? They can hold it until November, Put the US and Europe into economic meltdown, and take their sweet time watching us burn.

,
The GUY, that they've got in charge now, the ayatlll'4's son,  We bombed his father, his wife, and his baby daughter (3x confirmed dead),  apparently his own legs got blown off (unconfirmed), and he's severely injured.



JUST Sayn',  Blackrock preventing withdraws, what's next.

[noisyturtle]

I don't think it is an economic collapse, but a consolidation of wealth. Elimination of the middle class was always their plan, the ultra wealthy are just able to speedrun it now since they are using cheat modes to bypass corruption filters.

[tp4tissue]

Failure to understand Scaling.


If you have 100 Fuel, you can produce 100 units.

If you have 80 Fuel, you may only be able to produce 40-50 units.


A $1500 PC produce 400fps @ x-settings (9070xt)

A $1200 PC may only produce 100-200fps @ x-settings (4060)


The-Quality-Of-Life, GDP+etcetera, DIMINISHED, will FAR EXCEED that of a 20% reduction in Energy


They will masssage the numbers,  but that will NOT change the underlying physical effects (MEGA INFLATION).


The Rate-of-reduction in energy by THIS EVENT, is 100x that of the Oil Crisis in the 70s.


Buy everything YOU_NEED, NOW, Immediately, it can only get worse. (RICE, Machine tools, PCs, Television, Washing Machine, Oven)

DO NOT BUY, High luxury tax items, especially among categories you don't need.

[tp4tissue]

Hhmm... 

This is basically game over for the American Economy.

We will almost certainly have to Default.


Positive:

We're doing stupid things with oil,  now we can't.

The Petro-Dollar did not belong TO US, we are the Robbers/Parasites upon Mid-Ease oil.  Now it rightly goes back to them.

A more equal world, a more humbling experience.

Potential upside is there,

We go back to a production based economy, we-succeed, free education, fair compensation, you can buy a house and feed your kids.

We beh3 ad a bunch of Billionaires.


Negative:

Possible Dystopia

_US, could go into a state of totalitarianism. TechBro-Feudalism

_Transitional Massive Unemployment.
_The US economy is consumption based, and it finances that consumption by issuing DEBT, DEBT that is pushed forward using MID-EASE petro-dollar recycling.

_Women/Blacks/Latinos will be severely-marginalized, if not outright enslaved
_South Indian/Chinese immigrants might get a slightly better status due to their technical expertise, but over time, they will almost 100% leave.

_Civil war possible
_Racial purges

_Suburbia will erode within 3 years to become unlivable under high energy costs. _if you drive to the grocery store, imagine adding $15-20 of gas to every weekend drive.
_Cities will become the default living space, for efficiency sake, but because of high energy cost, it will mostly be slum like conditions for most people.



_The US will attempt to go back to a production base, but it simply can't compete, as the civilian population is already too old, too lazy, too fat, too uneducated.
_The transition fails, we enter a mad-monarch scenario.


Countries like FRANCE/ JAPAN will also go down in flames, they will also have to DEFAULT.


MOST COUNTRIES, that DO NOT have their own oil, will have to refinance using the YUAN through sips.

[tp4tissue]

50% of all LNG carrier ships are stuck BEHIND the strait.

Europe would go into severe economic depression.  That's why they're buying ever Cubic of gas from ANYONE selling.


So this idea that Europe is going to give several hundreds of Billions to Rvssss, annnnnnd pretend like they can fund the Vkr1nne front is ludicrous.


Tp4 has said from the beginning, Nato will fight to the last Vkran1an,  and it's turned out to be exactly the case.  Zlentskzzz, turns out he's been stealing from the war fund.  Typical of installed dictators, remember,  Dvmp is a Tv-personality,  Zlentskzz is a LITERAL clown, that was his actual job prior to being installed.

Not saying the Democratically elected OTHER guy is any better,  but the point is,  it's been called from the beginning that they're all going to die.

FOR WHAT exactly?  The aimless cadence of monkey shakespeare.

[noisyturtle]

Capitalism was a huge mistake, because human beings cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving
This has always been our greatest flaw as a species

[Findecanor]

"Free-market capitalism, for "free market" in the libertarian sense, specifically.
Communism suffers from the same fallacy: people with power and influence cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving.

There is no "invisible hand" composed of all parts of the system that is governing things. The system has to be governed by people, through laws and regulations, and enforcement of those laws and regulations.
Conventions are good but not good enough: because that opens up the possibility of someone finding a way to ignore the conventions and disrupting the market.

[fohat.digs]

"Free-market capitalism, for "free market" in the libertarian sense

people with power and influence cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving.

There is no "invisible hand"

because human beings cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving

Capitalism can function well but that requires legitimate competition and regulation.
Included in "regulation" is appropriate taxation to ensure that each entity pays its fair share toward the good of the whole.

[tp4tissue]

Capitalism can NEVER WORK, because it doesn't model the reality of the system.

Capitalism, only attempts to model for "perceptual-happiness."

By turning Trillions of gallons of FUEL into some avenue of Happy, drugs, food, music, pornography, gambling, videogames(simulated murder).


WITHOUT asking,  Happiness for whom or , Happiness for what purpose.


The entirety of the modern economy is WASTE, generate happiness for happiness sake, with ZERO consideration for the ECOLOGICAL systems which ultimately foot the bill.

The SAME ecological system that ALL LIFE on EARTH is dependent on, HAS NO SAY in ANY of human economic systems/thinking.


THEREFORE,   CRASH IS HERE.