The Economic Collapse

[tp4tissue]

It seems people are still in denial about the reality of Global Economic Recession.

Please observe this graph,  ENERGY and GDP has NEVER diverged. It simply can not.



Anything you can possible do or intend to do, REQUIRES energy.


Every year, Developed countries only manage 1-3% GDP.  Even Wizard-China, which maintained crazy 15-20% growth has slowed down to only 3-5% post Magic.

20% of global energy (25% of seaborne oil, 20% of LNG) comes out of the Middle East.


WHAT do you suppose is the consequence of a SUDDEN-contraction of this magnitude.


Even if the US withdrew all forces tomorrow,  we would STILL have to negotiate with 1R nto. We chose to atk THEM,

Their Published List of demands:

- That US and 1 srlt , recognize 1Rnto's rights
- That 1Rnto is paid REPARATIONS for the damage to the country and the people we killed.
- Security guarantee that no future wars such as this will ever happen again.


Do you think something this complicated can be negotiated in anything less than 1 month, 2 months, 6 months, 2-3 years?

When oil projections for 1 month is at $200-300 / barrel, $500-600 at 6-8 weeks.  Basic gasoline price will be $10-$25,  Don't forget about diesel, those amazon packages don't arrive by magic.


1 rnto also already has a Tri-lateral agreement with Rvss and China, as a key-founder of BRICS membership,

So you've got SUPER COMPLICATED, negotiations ahead.



NOW,  what they can do is,  IN THEORY, release the choke hold on the StraitofH for the time being DURING negotiations as good faith, 

BUT Would they do that? They can hold it until November, Put the US and Europe into economic meltdown, and take their sweet time watching us burn.

,
The GUY, that they've got in charge now, the ayatlll'4's son,  We bombed his father, his wife, and his baby daughter (3x confirmed dead),  apparently his own legs got blown off (unconfirmed), and he's severely injured.



JUST Sayn',  Blackrock preventing withdraws, what's next.

[noisyturtle]

I don't think it is an economic collapse, but a consolidation of wealth. Elimination of the middle class was always their plan, the ultra wealthy are just able to speedrun it now since they are using cheat modes to bypass corruption filters.

[tp4tissue]

Failure to understand Scaling.


If you have 100 Fuel, you can produce 100 units.

If you have 80 Fuel, you may only be able to produce 40-50 units.


A $1500 PC produce 400fps @ x-settings (9070xt)

A $1200 PC may only produce 100-200fps @ x-settings (4060)


The-Quality-Of-Life, GDP+etcetera, DIMINISHED, will FAR EXCEED that of a 20% reduction in Energy


They will masssage the numbers,  but that will NOT change the underlying physical effects (MEGA INFLATION).


The Rate-of-reduction, in energy by THIS EVENT, is 100x that of the Oil Crisis in the 70s.


Buy everything YOU_NEED, NOW, Immediately, it can only get worse. (RICE, Machine tools, PCs, Television, Washing Machine, Oven)

DO NOT BUY, High luxury tax items, especially among categories you don't need.

[tp4tissue]

Hhmm... 

This is basically game over for the American Economy.

We will almost certainly have to Default.


Positive:

We're doing stupid things with oil,  now we can't.

The Petro-Dollar did not belong TO US, we are the Robbers/Parasites upon Mid-Ease oil.  Now it rightly goes back to them.

A more equal world, a more humbling experience.

Potential upside is there,

We go back to a production based economy, we-succeed, free education, fair compensation, you can buy a house and feed your kids.

We beh3 ad a bunch of Billionaires.


Negative:

Possible Dystopia

_US, could go into a state of totalitarianism. TechBro-Feudalism

_Transitional Massive Unemployment.
_The US economy is consumption based, and it finances that consumption by issuing DEBT, DEBT that is pushed forward using MID-EASE petro-dollar recycling.

_Women/Blacks/Latinos will be severely-marginalized, if not outright enslaved
_South Indian/Chinese immigrants might get a slightly better status due to their technical expertise, but over time, they will almost 100% leave.

_Civil war possible
_Racial purges

_Suburbia will erode within 3 years to become unlivable under high energy costs. _if you drive to the grocery store, imagine adding $15-20 of gas to every weekend drive.
_Cities will become the default living space, for efficiency sake, but because of high energy cost, it will mostly be slum like conditions for most people.



_The US will attempt to go back to a production base, but it simply can't compete, as the civilian population is already too old, too lazy, too fat, too uneducated.
_The transition fails, we enter a mad-monarch scenario.


Countries like FRANCE/ JAPAN will also go down in flames, they will also have to DEFAULT.


MOST COUNTRIES, that DO NOT have their own oil, will have to refinance using the YUAN through sips.

[tp4tissue]

50% of all LNG carrier ships are stuck BEHIND the strait.

Europe would go into severe economic depression.  That's why they're buying ever Cubic of gas from ANYONE selling.


So this idea that Europe is going to give several hundreds of Billions to Rvssss, annnnnnd pretend like they can fund the Vkr1nne front is ludicrous.


Tp4 has said from the beginning, Nato will fight to the last Vkran1an,  and it's turned out to be exactly the case.  Zlentskzzz, turns out he's been stealing from the war fund.  Typical of installed dictators, remember,  Dvmp is a Tv-personality,  Zlentskzz is a LITERAL clown, that was his actual job prior to being installed.

Not saying the Democratically elected OTHER guy is any better,  but the point is,  it's been called from the beginning that they're all going to die.

FOR WHAT exactly?  The aimless cadence of monkey shakespeare.

[noisyturtle]

Capitalism was a huge mistake, because human beings cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving
This has always been our greatest flaw as a species

[Findecanor]

"Free-market capitalism, for "free market" in the libertarian sense, specifically.
Communism suffers from the same fallacy: people with power and influence cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving.

There is no "invisible hand" composed of all parts of the system that is governing things. The system has to be governed by people, through laws and regulations, and enforcement of those laws and regulations.
Conventions are good but not good enough: because that opens up the possibility of someone finding a way to ignore the conventions and disrupting the market.

[fohat.digs]

"Free-market capitalism, for "free market" in the libertarian sense

people with power and influence cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving.

There is no "invisible hand"

because human beings cannot be trusted to not be selfish and self-serving

Capitalism can function well but that requires legitimate competition and regulation.
Included in "regulation" is appropriate taxation to ensure that each entity pays its fair share toward the good of the whole.

[tp4tissue]

Capitalism can NEVER WORK, because it doesn't model the reality of the system.

Capitalism, only attempts to model for "perceptual-happiness."

By turning Trillions of gallons of FUEL into some avenue of Happy, drugs, food, music, pornography, gambling, videogames(simulated murder).


WITHOUT asking,  Happiness for whom or , Happiness for what purpose.


The entirety of the modern economy is WASTE, generate happiness for happiness sake, with ZERO consideration for the ECOLOGICAL systems which ultimately foot the bill.

The SAME ecological system that ALL LIFE on EARTH is dependent on, HAS NO SAY in ANY of human economic systems/thinking.


THEREFORE,   CRASH IS HERE.

[tp4tissue]

Finance is in the idea phase of doing.

But because "PROGRESS" is shallowly/wrongly defined,  FINANCE becomes Parasitic to the system, as it narrowly aims to FEED itself (to make more money).


This is why we constantly hear about fiscal policy, because Finance fails and we keep pounding down fistfuls of medication.

MEDICATION (Fiscal policy) only affects SYMPTOMS of Financial failure, it does not address the cause (Wrong goals).


Tp4 looks in the mirror. Tp4 is super fat, but instead of improving himself, he messes with the mirror, tries to bend it so as to look skinnier in the mirror.


THAT Horizon is the barrier to human problem solving.


Instead of aiming towards a Utopia, the average Human exposed to technology narrowly pursues Indefinite-Euphoria (in all domains).

There is no medicine/ policy that can fix this at scale.  The machine has crashed.

[tp4tissue]

Look no further than the SWING RIOTS, where disgruntled plebs smashed up England's Threshing machines (wheat) and left a calling card post deed signed "Captain Swing."   

The riots brought wealthy landlords to their knees, they had to reduce rent/tithes and increase wages. Social reform.

When a David fights a Goliath, David's got nothing to lose.  It's always the case that DESTRUCTION is economical vs CONSTRUCTION.

So when it comes to Attrition, unless you have a 10^9999 advantage,  Even something 10000x smaller can emit crippling damage.

Think about it this way, A BEE STING can Kill-some-people. A person is 281,540 x the mass of a BEE.

Asymmetrical Warfare.


1r 3nto's retaliation on qa trr's oil fields, caused 5 Billion in damages, + 20 Billion in ANNUAL lost revenue, projected repair time 5 years.

So, with $200000 worth of weapons, they caused $105,000,000,000 worth of damages.


Iren t0 situation is the Nation-State version of Captain Swing.

[fohat.digs]

nice

[tp4tissue]

Fohat, you've got the worst case of DDS.

|) is the greatest american president ever,  if it weren't for the fact that he's being blackmailed, he would NEVER have gone to war.


On the matter with Maga, know this, Charlie Kirk actually WAS an all-american-Hero, now that we know what got him killed. 

Yea, Charlie kirk does represent the Worst-America, bigotry, sexism, slavery, anti-lgbt, NOT a good guy. For sure.

He was all those things,  BUT AT LEAST, He was FOR America, unlike, you know what.

[tp4tissue]

The "Worst" oil crisis we've ever had,  Oil embargo, 1973, oil price (barrel) increased roughly 3-4x.

NOW,   THAT was around 10% disruption to the oil consumption in 1973.

TODAY, Project 3ps7e zzz Fury is a 20% disruption, and not only that, but also LNG, + 30% of world wide fertilizer (Yes whole world earth).

The dependence in ALL ASPECTS of modern living, ON CHEAP OIL has only increased, NOTHING about the modern economy works without OIL.


The Gulf state, also has a SPECIAL oil, it's very good (economical) for conversion to DIESEL, the True BLOOD of the economy.


Everything will just stop working.

[tp4tissue]

So... them France did some maths.

They say 30-40% mid-eaz oil infrastructure damaged/destroyed.

Now, if you recall from Tp4 lessons,  the Gulf represents 20% rough of world oil. Their oil is Also a SPECIAL oil particularly suited for Diesel vs American tight-oil which is suited for Plastics (not efficient for Diesel).

30-40% infrastructure problem, means at least 10% of world oil supply comes out BROKEN, even if somehow the whole world magically ended tensions overnight.


The 1973 oil embargo was only a 10% disruption.   


That means, what we have going forward is 3-10 year potential Oil Embargo (1973).


PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

[Findecanor]

We like plastics on this forum. /s

There has been hope among some people that the current oil crisis would at least reduce some climate emissions, which have only gone up. Fat chance that it would even make a dent, but we could always hope.

[tp4tissue]

Emissions reduction is entirely hypothetical.

Every little bit counts, but the scientist already said, if you started 10 years ago, it would still be a catastrophic. We've got 3-5 Celcius baked in.

We have to reduce emission at least 50% within 20 years.


That's IMPOSSIBLE.

Which is why,  Tp4 has given you guys the TRUE SOLUTION to climate change, eat 100% Veggies.

The 43% of all surface land used for grazing and growing feed crop represents 3x the NET emissions since the industrial revolution.


THERE IS NO OTHER SOLUTION, Do, or Die.

Clearly the world has chosen to die.

[tp4tissue]

If the weekend's US attack with Trooobs happen,   

We will cross from 3-5 year infrastructure damage into 10-30 year energy infrastructure damage

Europe = Done.
Leave,  if you can, go to (anada.

There's going to be no energy replacement.

[tp4tissue]

The sheer quantity of Copium going around right now.

Look how hard it is to build a Gaming PC right now, because of Ram, just this little ol' Ram. Everything else in the pipe is stuck. Lots of smaller PC retailers going out of business or shedding stock with 0 margins,  because MOST stock comes in on Borrowed Money.


NOW imagine the CORE, FUNDAMENTAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE has a giant 20% HOLE in it.

To fill it, you need  2.5x Russia.

This is just a physical reality.

You can magically end the conflict tomorrow, and turn everything back on, and you're still 4-5 years out before restoring energy flows, fixing broken distillation vessels, pipes, well heads.

But, BY THAT TIME,  the industrial process would have Entirely Collapsed in the interim, and permanently shutter the machinery that That-Fuel once flowed into.

So, asssssuming you had the political will and economic WILL to turn the machinery back on, MORE LAG TIME, Another 4-5 years.

The Negative Reverberations will be felt for the next 100 Years. 
   Assummning' we don't bomb ourselves to death.

No one can come in and plug this.  GLOBAL DEPRESSION = GUARANTEED


You're going to see them MESS with the NUMBERS,  this will NOT change the underlying physical reality of horrific pull back in day to day life.


And this WHOLE TIME,  NO ONE is even TALKING ABOUT 100% VEGGIE,

The SINGULAR SOLUTION to our EXTINCTION LVL Crisis via Climate Change.

[tp4tissue]

People are CONFUSED by the State-Of-Events, because they don't understand the Economy, or its History.


Basically, the Petro Dollar System, means, the Money which comes out the Mid-eas Oil, Fundamentally BELONGS to the US.

The installed autocracies in the region, saudi, bahrein, uae, qatar,  are merely US puppets, they're NOT REALLY even Vassel States.,  they're just drugged up local gangsters, that we tell what to do, we also sell them drugs*.

For example, they're allowed to INVEST their oil money IN, US Stock and Bonds, Services, But they have NO CONTROL over US Companies/ Policies in the Companies they invest in, regardless of their share of ownership.  Of course they will have some influence, but NOT REALLY.

That money comes in, it allows the US economy, and its ancilliary the European economy, to BORRRROWW, as people will buy US debt to eventually TRADE for more Oil.

Through this process, The OIL in the mid-ease does not at all belong to the Mid-Eas,  it BELONGS to AMERICA.

America produce some of its own oil + gas, it uses up MOST of it (Diesel oil portion), the (Plastic portion) it sells, and the Mid-Eas oil + our gas, and their gas, it Sells.


The Mid Eas, is essentially an American pocketbook.


How does money even work, well If you didn't inflate, and print, PROFIT wouldn't be possible, it would be Zero-Sum, So by PRINTING, it makes profit possible, but it also mostly keeps the system in balanced debt, moving forward.

Because we control the PETRO DOLLAR, it allows us to PRINT and achieve most of the benefits, we can just keep borrowing and fund "the lifestyle", America, the upper classes anyway, got to enjoy Living-Life, while outputting Minimal labor vs the rest of the world.

For example, a customer in America buys a bag of rice for $25, 15lbs, the farmer in India, was paid around $0.5 for that bag.


Now take the American pocket book away,  WHAT are you left with.  The western idea of A-Life collapses.  If you take $25 and $0.5 lifestyle and you go from one to the other,   you're looking at something like 1/3-1/6 multiple of what the typical Western-Lifestyle is like.

Imagine yourself with 1/3-1/6 the amount of purchasing power/ free time/ vacations.


DO UNDERSTAND 1 Thing,  the LIFE we got to live, was on the Back of modern Slavery and Colonial Exploitation of resources that DID NOT BELONG TO US.  It was Never-Just, infact, it was CRIMINAL.

The reduction will feel catestrophic, but it is at its core, More Equitable.

PREPARE YOURSELVES.