The Economic Collapse

[fohat.digs]

chasing bad money with good.

How lucky we are to have a very stable genius at the helm.

[tp4tissue]

chasing bad money with good.

How lucky we are to have a very stable genius at the helm.

He really is the chosen 1,  he's saving the world by destroying the western economy.

You couldn't achieve this with the highest financial jurisprudence.  The greatest climate activist of all of Human History.

[tp4tissue]

Tp4 goes to the outside yea?

The outside people neither appreciate nor understand what's about to happen to them.

Latest Kpler projections, only 45% output will be operational in hormuz in the "Impossible" situation that the war ends tomorrow.


AFTER THAT,  oil will stay at $100+ INDEFINITELY.  (Current realworld price for PHYSICAL barrels of oil is $150-175) This is different from the futures market, that number is the future, which is discounted, it's not real oil.

Who will pay for repairs in the Gulf States, who will come up with the money,  who would INSURE reconstruction.

The FIRST replacement boat won't hit the water for 2-3 months after wars end, IF it even ends. 

The 'Muririikan oil reserve, which we've been SELLING on the open market to keep prices down, runs dry END OF JULY.


In all likelihood, geo-strategically Hormuz will never recover to 100%.


Without Petr0D0llr recycling,  'Muririrkan  stonks and MORE IMPORTANTLY,   BONDZ,   Go Pooooooof.

The entirety of Europe is already hitting the poor house, without oil, it might as well be the Stone Ages.

Without CHEAP energy access, they will DE-INDUSTRIALIZE, as not a single one of their industry is cost competitive.


They're hell bent on atkn' Rvssss 1a.    OK.... sure,  Rvsss just said, no more gas for Europe.   ,  Rvsss 1a also lining up Oresniks to TEST the Article5 resolve.

Ur00p were getting Hormuz gas before,  alot of that output Capacity has been blown up too, and repairs are in the 3-5 year ball park.


Imagine having to close a factory for 3-5 years. You think the owners can handle ANY interest payments with 0 revenue for 3-5 years? 


In principle, yea, everyone can go on vacation, as they eat at the breadline everyday and then back to their Tents at night.   This could be fun, you don't know, alot less showering, one would imagine.

[tp4tissue]

Full war has resumed,

It would seem that dmp did not have any realistic negotiations going on, despite all the apparent lying about it in the last few days, it was yet another stupid attempt at sucker-punch.


What "the wurl" is looking for at this point, is  SOME - Turning point.


Annnnnd,  it would seem that we're NO WHERE CLOSE to it.

Basically, at this point, ECONOMIC """ DEPRESSION """  has been locked in.



There is no political off ramp,  no military off ramp,  NO ECONOMIC off ramp.

[tp4tissue]

A sense of what's here and what's to come.. !!

Tragic America, by Theodore Dreiser (famous author of the fiction, An American Tragedy)

synopsis::: Non-fiction critique on the social-system in the Era of the Great Depression

[tp4tissue]

Tp4's seeing in all likelihood, world GDP 1.5-3% drop 2027.

No one has ever seen a post-growth world.

[tp4tissue]

There is no deal.  MOUs are not deals, anything like this between "Whole Countries" require "Treaties" that are ratified by the Senate w/ 2/3 majority.

Don't believe the hype. All that's happening is they're trying to quiet the markets to STEAL what's left of public funds, 401ks etc,  to pay for their failing STONKS bubble.

They're desperate to steal this money because it's readily obvious, that when you pull THIS MUCH ENERGY out of the economy, ontop of losing Geo-political control over the SOURCE of that energy, it means the total collapse of primacy and borrowing.

Borrowing is all that 'mruruika had, Debt was our only real export. 

The tech bubble is wholly DEPENDENT on energy imports.  Not only have we LOST the excess energy to fuel that bubble, we've also lost the CASH Injection (Petrodollar recycling) to FINANCE it.


ENJORY Camping / AKA homelessness.

[tp4tissue]

What may come to pass.
 
So, If the Murikuzns does a full TahyK0, leaves the mijd-ease, then the dollar system collapses,  the new world will be denominated in RMB.


That is probably not going to happen, regardless of which administration, racist or otherwise, they probably won't allow it.

What does that mean.. Wellllll..... you may think the economics FORCE them to pull a tay(ko, But geo-politically, they will probably become full pirates.


So, the double blockade, if 1rnt is not allowing oil, then the US blokad will ALSO be there indefinitely, 

But this costs FUEL, and enormous amounts resources,   WHO will bear the burden.


The US is probably looking at ur000p thinking, ur000p will not only pay for this war, numbers side of things, but ALSO supply their children (3-5 million soldiers) for the Front lines, most will again die on the beach.  This will be continuous, until the Nv(lr weapons tip, where we all probably die.



That's the only possible outcome if decision making is LEFT to the Oligarchs of each country. 


If you believe the people will have a say about it, Maybe, we could have a short civil war,  if the people come out on top, the 'murikam economy collapses totally, and from total bankruptcy, we balkanize and rebuild from scratch, < the fall of the american union >.
 
This is the less violent option of the 2.



Everything will miraculously be Fine scenario, well,  Unfortunately this is unlikely, because from both end of this, TO THE PEOPLE IN CHARGE, it is Existential.


Tp4 recommends either Moving to your NEAREST nv(lar weapons Big-Country, like Rvss, US, (haiNa.

ur00p is marked for Death by 'Murika, it will be sacrificed.


Our prevailing world structure. (loud noise warning)

[tp4tissue]

Asssssuming the MOU holds.

Tp4 would say, 60/40, favoring holds.

The economic collapse,   on the surface, the bailout is already happening in full swing right now given the stock pumps.

But long run, we've destroyed roughly 15% of world energy production, they were literally blown up, it's done.   This effect will be far excess of 15%.

> 15% physical reduction (already locked, it's gone)
> 20-25% mechanical production "scaling loss"  a $1500 pc vs a $1200 pc,  Night and day difference in performance.
> Any conceivable repairs to oil/gas are 5+ years out. Do we think (the economy) can wait that long..
> 0% Confidence for middle-ezse investment, you might build a refinery in UAE last year, but WOULD YOU EVER AGAIN, now that you see what can happen in the region, when refineries are 20-30 year investments, and might not turn a profit until Year 15.
> 0% Confidence in safety,  if you were an Oil/Gas engineer, would you take your family and move there? you might a year ago, enjoy the brothels/drugs, but today, when NE moment now, bombs could be flying, and they hosed the airport, and people couldn't leave, with NO running water in the middle of a desert?
> Latest Conflict has proven, 'Murikn military technology is obsolete,  they offer 0 protection over the most <volatile> asset on the planet.  = STRANDED ASSETS.

> Stonks are unreliable, because we're in an identical DotCom Dark Fiber situation. Lots of "money" upfront, with NO-realistic-profit-prospective.
> Datacenters CONTRACTED have stalled and / or canceled
>> They run on energy we don't have, can't build.
>> (haiyNa sells the "same tokens." at  1/4 to 1/6th  the price, because of their Industrial Scale.
>> Scale is Everything.

> Locking out (haiyNa from buying western Semiconductor tooling
>> Sounds good right?
>> Stop their AI..
>> Except we forget, technology comes about by way of BRAIN POWER, there's nothing special about it. It's a commodity relative to any large population of humans.
>> East Asians in high tech 'Muririka companies form 15-30% of the Brain-Trust.
>> How come, Genetic Cognitive Superiority + Cultural affinity for education.

>> Official US Doctrine, we're GOING TO WAR with (hyNNA... Look it up, Land and Sea Battle.
>> Let's say you go to war with (hyNA, Kewl kewl kewl.
>>>> Every1 now h8s the yellow people, kewl kewl
>>>> Yellow people go home
>>>> What population can come in and replace these PHDs / Double PHDs, meatbags which took 30 years to train.
>>>> You think the yellow people will just stay around, when you're killing all the yellow people overseas?
>>>> You're going to offer all the koreans and japanese yellow people special Yellow people arm bands so they don't get accidentally racisted ? Hahahahha


>> Historical certainty, Every time US has refused (hyna a technology,
>> (haiNa built it themselves.
>>> Mechanically, we either accept inter-dependence, or we accept defeat by overwhelmingly superior MASS
>>> SCALING is everything, output scales exponentially.

>> Brain power comparison. Engineering graduates.

[tp4tissue]

Future Production Ecnomy.

Some problems.

The China (Machine) is already built, AND, It's hooked up to Rv55n' Nergy.


Our Western (Machine) is not yet built, AND, we Just blew up a huge chunk of its energy pipelines/ contracts / political handshakes.

[tp4tissue]

NE1 do anything to prepare for economic depression?

Seems pretty much 99% locked.

US refiners have already instigated the ask to Washn'ton, on fuel types.

It's either jet-fuel, OR  diesel,  but not both, there isn't enough for both.



Translation::: This is going to be beyond bare-shelves,  Total Catastrophe (Stagflation).



Tp4 has increased the Garden by 100%.  Water's expensive, but cheaper than Store veg.

2 Years stock on RICE.

Thinking about getting a big battery and some panels.

Looked at Roof-Solar, Not a huge fan because they all bolt through, and leaks are an inevitability over time, huge pain to fix. Just got whole new roof last summer.

[tp4tissue]

Also looking into a "serious" xercise routine.

Since, walking / running are going to be extremely "common" in a world without affordable transportation.

[tp4tissue]

People don't get it.

The primary currency of "the World." is not Dollars,  it's OIL.

We held the middle ease Hostage, because all of their money MUST go through our banking system.  That OIL money MUST return into our capital markets.
 
We then borrow against that "incoming" "recycling",  Allowing, us to PRINT,  which amounts to a disproportionate influx of "Resources/Buys" INTO the American ground base.

NOW,    That WHOLE THINGAMaboob, is blown up.


We can NO LONGER enforce this system..  Ontop of the fact,  that "Our Vassals" (the human rulers in the mid-ease) are "Extremely Unpopular.",  These were merely the mud-hut people the British installed when they left and handed the keys to the 'Murikns

For example, Bahrain (royals), they straight up left, poof, if they went back, they would be killed.

That is to say, that whole region may enter Civil war.   and IN CIVIL WAR,   No one controls anything,  that unpredictability makes the coordinated investment REQUIRED to EXTRACT OIL and SELL OIL,  virtually impossible.


This is WHY.... KPLER... project that the Mid-Ease may only achieve 45% of Pre-War output  FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  Representing a 15% immediate contraction of World Energy, and as you know the association between GDP and Energy is .95-.99.


Tp4 doesn't necessarily agree with this,  if they side with the Eastrn security architecture, in principle, the Eurasian powers DO have the economic and industrial capacity to restore Extraction rates,   BUHHHhhhhh,  this makes no difference on OUR end,  WE LOSE. 

So, the power on the "Muriknu' side has to decide, our options are some combination of,  Stagflation, World Conflagration, Deep Economic Depression.  The only other option is to Continue the war, which will lead to Hyper-Inflation in the West.

At this point in time, the only thing that looks certain for America, is Insolvency, should there be a CALL- exercised on part of "The rest of the world".

Assuming they don't do that, basically our wiener falls off anyway.

[tp4tissue]

Ok, so you got alot of these cycles saying, HEY xxxx business will improve, xxxx business will get worse.

EconomiP4 says::

It's all going to be bad.

WHY,   anytime you have a recession/contraction/depression/all the sions,  DISCRETIONARY SPENDING FALLS.

What is the difference between 2026 and 1973.

WELLL,  a MUCH LARGER proportion of capital and markets ARE  Discretionary.

This is the case because we've long-since maxed out the Necessities.  So all growth sectors/perceived wants are in discretionary.

Nintendo/GPUs/AI/eLeCtriK cars.   

<NONE OF WHICH> are <NECESSARY>

 <ALL of WHich> in <A BUBBLE>



The best any sector can do is HANG ON.  Outside of protected sectors such as agriculture/energy/medicine/transport,  everything else will go to pewps.

[tp4tissue]

We're doomed to fail, because people are idiots, and OIL is mis-priced.

Most modern 1st wurlders have not done any physical labor relevant to their survival.

For example,  Digging a hole.


Get yourself a PickAxe and Shovel.  Try digging a hole just 2 feet deep. It is REALLY exhausting, especially if you've hit some gravel.

Pros can do it decently fast, but the average person will probably take 10-30 minutes.  Then there's clean up, moving plants, filling it, watering.

ALL THAT to plant  ONE THING.


People don't appreciate what ENERGY does.

The energy in a SINGLE-Barrel of oil translated into HUMAN-mechanical-energy equivalent is 5-YEARS of physical labor.


This substance is actually "A GOOD DEAL" at virtually ANY PRICE.

But it's Priced at $60-100,  most recently $150-200.

Even at this very elevated stage, pushing the economic system into near collapse, IT HAS collapsed in many places in Asia,,, Even at this price of $200,   HUMANITY still under-appreciate its true value, and CONTINUE TO WASTE.

OIL does not come back, the next tranch in Energy is not-guaranteed-possible. 

SOLAR / WIND do not replace what OIL does,  neither its Portability, Easy Storage, Liquid at room temp, Does not require pressure vessels, nor its Importance in FEED STOCKS for other materals such as plastic.

Electricity can not replace oil. Not in the slightest in the vast majority of Industries.


Between then and there, is an Infinite set of distractions.


The slums of India, is the best case outcome for the majority of our future timeline.
 

[tp4tissue]

Tp4,  you're on and on about how the wurl's gon' bad.

But how has this affected you personally?  How bad IS the e( onomi?

-- Back in the day, The Histories.

Tp4 used to cook 2 packs of ramen. Just 2 whole packs, threw out the extra set of seasoning, because who cares.

crisys 1,  2 packs of good-ramen, save 1 set of seasoning for another day, very frugal very reasonable, less waste.

crisys 2,  1 pack of good-ramen, 1 pack of cheapo-noodz

crisys 3,  1 pack of good ramen + mix with the day's Rice,  no more secondary noodz pack.

Today, 1 pack of cheapo-noodz + mixed with the day's Rice.   Tp4 not even buying the Shin-Rmen, DestituteP4 Walks quickly past the aisle @ costco.


In a few years, probably just porridge + salted cucumbers.

[tp4tissue]

Dear Tp4,

You're over-reacting,  Plz, Trust Capitalism, Trust that the Market will ****** certain actions, they're crazy but NOT that-Crazy.


O-Rly.   Tp4 works frr Rich people, day in day out,  You know how the pharoahs burried their survents alive?  That's how "Rich people"  relate to the Commoners.

They would not hesitate to throw your life at preserving their status. A War they're Losing? Throw more bodies at it.


Look no further than the 90Billion worth of shorts on the oil futures right now. The $60 Artificially low price,  but when you go to actually buy physical oil,  oh, nope not in stock, you want oil it's $150-200.   But hey look the OIL is back where it is.

They're gambling with the financial solvency of the UNited States people,  from their perspective, you're nothing, and they don't care to depreciate your money and your labor, which is the Whole point of quantitative easing.

[tp4tissue]

You can't use capitalism, to save the world from problems caused BY CAPITALISM.

Something's gotta give,  or that's the hill you all die on.

[tp4tissue]

Analogies.

Let's say USA is the right arm.   Iran is like the knee-cap

Apparently the Arm is very very displeased with the knee-cap.

The Arm spends money, gets a knife, and starts stabbing the knee cap.

You get about 1 stabby stab in, and the whole body writhes in pain.


OH.. I SEE, says the Arm,  the knee-cap is an essential component attached to the whole.


That's where we are,  unfortunately, the Arm spent all that money on buying a knife, and it's looking for other body parts to stab. BECAUSE,  Capitalism and Knife-collections are very important.   

[tp4tissue]

Calling it, tvkr calrs0n is the real krasn0v.

[noisyturtle]

In Seattle they tore down the huge homeless encampment in '19 that had programs for needle exchanges, health care, food banks, addiction specialists. Granted, it was a total eyesore. Literally the first thing you see driving into d/t Seattle, and half the time it was on fire. But now we've got fent zombies just wandering the streets in broad daylight. Bent over at 90° moaning against a wall, or ****ting in the street in view of tourists and children. I feel like it is WAY worse now, and people just walk by, not even commenting. Normalizing this. It is insane.
On the flip side, I've read articles that are deadass serious with working professionals claiming they are making $300K USD A YEAR and somehow it is apparently not enough to get by.

[tp4tissue]

You live and a bubble, and everything you know is fake.

[tp4tissue]

Good bye e(onom1..

/waves

[fohat.digs]

the cease fire will never work unless Drumpf keeps Netanyahu on a very short leash.

[tp4tissue]

This has nothing to do with netnyootzoo.

People get confused who works for whom.  They're the happy scapegoat. That was the deal.

[tp4tissue]

To keep numbers easy to understand.

The whole world is 100million barrel of oil (per day),

~30% of oil from the whole world is convertible to diesel, 7% into jet fuel. They draw on the same middle distillate.  We produce 30m diesel 7m jet.

Hormuz transits 25 million barrels of oil, 50-60% is middle-distillate, UNIQUELY suitable for diesel. Unlike 'Murikan sweet crude which yields high for plastics and gasoline, poorly for diesel.

This is also why america is not energy independent, it has to imports lots and lots of crude oil to MAKE DIESEL.

There is no substitution, oils are not all the same. Refinery configurations also CAN NOT CHANGE, you're talking YEARS to a Decade of modification.

12.5m hormuz oil made into diesel+jet

12.5m out of 37m is 33.8%.

Hormuz is responsible for 33.8% of the world's diesel+jet.

After our "murika super Epi ( smart foreign policy plan"

A virtually impossible mid-east Miracle recovery tops out at 45% for the next decade->forseeable future. (Kpler study)

So, you got .55*12.5 = 6.875m lost barrel, 6.875/37 = 18.59% barrel of the world's diesel+jet is GONE,


so 18.59% contraction in world diesel+jet supply is the IMPOSSIBLE BEST CASE.

You throw in inefficiencies, Delays, restarts, forever-wars, politics politics politics.


You're looking at something like 20-25% of diesel supply loss.

This is a big deal. as DIESEL has an extremely Outsized Impact on the Economy and supply chain..


You take the impact of a "butterfly effect" event,  turn that into a sledge hammer the size of 20million barrels of oil, AND ask,   WAHT is the Economi, going to LOOK LIKE?



E(onoP4 remarks/  rough surfaces, ahead.

Ep4 used low estimates of the oil transit. The real impact is probably EVEN Higher.

[tp4tissue]

Also,

KEEP IN MIND...

That remaining diesel is NOT evenly distributed.  Eur0op has almost None.

The US has -Some- because we bully Canada for 75% of our domestic use.

[noisyturtle]

I cannot in any way understand this decision. I don't understand...
https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/xbox-ceo-asha-sharma-named-as-adviser-to-us-federal-reserve-on-jobs-and-productivity/

[fohat.digs]

understand this decision.

How far you make it in DC today depends on your skill at stroking the ego of the orange monster.

[tp4tissue]

The western e(onom1 is actually very very simple.

Colonialism is the core of what modern capitalism is.

Produce very little yourself, but if you have extractive colony you can pull resources and labor from, English parasite off India, Capitalism works.

The majority of what made western economies wealthy, post ww2, had been its ability to simply BORROW.

It's able to do this by issuing Debt, (a piece of Paper).

But because US inherited total dominion of the former European colonies,  WE became the Parasite King.

Our inheritance of the Mid-east, we control the entirety of oil wealth, all of the oil sold has to be dollars and all the dollars MUST go through Western banking.    They had no true sovereignty under UK/Europe,   they had no sovereignty under US.

Because the Epst3e3ez class decided they'd rather have private-corporations financialize the entirety of the nation, RATHER than a strong central state, The US became divided into various fiefdoms.

This is the OPPOSITE of efficiency, but it WORKED because we could print, and simply BUY all the "Stuffs."


Ultimately, our monetary system became US prints monopoly money, Europe buys that monopoly money with their own monopoly money,  Everyone else buys monopoly money with a "small portion of their own for settlement" but mostly with REAL GOODS.


As technology is transferred and re-invented naturally, in states of excess energy, it simply democratizes itself.   There are choke-points on certain natural resources, but there is no true choke-point on technology.

We've reached a point where the rest of the world has decided, they don't need to buy our monopoly money anymore.


NOW we're panicked, because we don't know how to do anything for ourselves, as that wouldn't be colonialism. The only way our system could continue is if we enslaved south america and canada.

There is no other way to maintain the system as is.


Capitalism is supppppose to evolve into Socialism. If it does not, it will Stall + Destroy itself by adding successive barriers to development through rent-seeking.

They've decided at least for now,  we MUST continue the only thing we've been doing for the last 80 years, Rent-Seeking.

[tp4tissue]

Ur0 oop. is done!

Sell everything.. !!

1rn declred,  if they are atkd, WHICH is likely in the coming week,  they will fully close Bab-el-Mandeb strait (Suez canal), AND withdraw from NPT.

That water way is another 10% of global Energy shipping, a full 30% of all container traffic. So assuming any ships even "get out" of the GCC,  they'd incur 10-30 % extra time/ shipping cost sailing around africa.

You'd be lighting up the problem candle on both ends. You have ALOT LESS energy available AND you have to spend MORE Energy in logistics.


Meanwhile, in Grimini,  Let's go 5th reiggch, we're gonna defeat rvssa..


In grandstrategi, it's almost like, well, we'll fight to the last uroopean just like we fought to the last vkr1nian.

Literally, that's what they did, vkr1n1n is already past breaking point, their population is so diminished, the country is no longer viable, it has no industrial/ labor / military strength to sustain any realistic sovereignty. Mechanically, you can consider the nation dissolved..

[tp4tissue]

@ costco today. looks at the baggles, sigh... can't afford them this week. looks at the pita pokets, nope, price went up on that too.

Went to walmart to get some sodaz, even store brand soda is 20cents more than last week.

[tp4tissue]

If they started sailing the Oil, a MONTH ago,  they'd be TOO LATE.

We're out, it's flat as that.

AND THERE'S No more coming. Doesn't look like it.

Not for 6 month to 2 years.

[tp4tissue]

the dm,{vp imposes 20% 'murika tax on hormuz oil ? LOLOLOL whatt??

This literally makes no sense, the oil doesn't have that much margin.

No country could pay this,  Right now, the REAL Out the door price for a refinery BUYING OIL is $110 to $200 per barrel.

If you add 20%, that's $132, to $240

Literally, no one Would or COULD pay this.

[tp4tissue]

Hahahahahahaha...

We're looking at 15-20% maximum hormuz recovery at this point.

Leave ur00p NOW !!

[tp4tissue]

Young people who believe, obrrrmrr,  was a great president.

Under obrrmr, we took interest rate allllll the way down on top of ENORMOUS quantitative easing (Print money), liquidity up

This led to anyone with big-money to BORROW, like crazy.

WHERE did all this money end up,  well, in 'murika,  at this point in our history, no one wants to do anything HARD, because most of those things are very uncertain and they take a LONG time to profit, things like MINES, Factories, Refineries, etc, job-creators, we had NO new jobs, no industrial growth...

SO, all that money ended up in Financial Capitalism, which Bid-Up Assets, like equities, land, HOUSES.

All the big firms buying up HUGE tracks of land and residential, is a DIRECT result of obrmmrmrm's 2 terms.


Young people who are impoverished and can't afford their home, have to directly thank him.  AND YET, the media paints a different picture,  omg,  dvmp is soooo bad,  obbrrmrr so Guuuud'' omg, he's black, omg, diversity.

Obrrmrr, took away any hope they had for owning a home.


He also laucnhed the largest assas55ination campaign ever in the mid east, gainst' Seat1_reeia.

He gave in "assistance", basically money, More than any president in history, to 1s reeeeee Lelt.


Obrrrmrrr,  Screwed young people 10x as badly as bush, easily equivalent of duvpm

 

[tp4tissue]

Red Sea, aka <that Other-h0rmvz>

WE're like 95% trigger likelihood that it will be closed soon.

Brace urseff ur00p.   Xpensive everything ahead.

BUY 9070xt NOW !!