Author Topic: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)  (Read 4859 times)

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Offline Leslieann

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Last time, I said expect it will actually be 4-5 years rather than the year/year and a half and that they're just trying to be optimistic, those fears are coming to fruition.

The latest projection comes from TV manufacturers and Sony. Sony says Playstation shortages will continue well into 2022 and that certain components have gone up anywhere from 300% to 1400%. TV manufacturers have said to expect a 30% rise in prices as well for the foreseeable future, monitors too most likely. For TVs you can take this to mean they will stay high until the Superbowl AFTER the shortage actually ends as the Superbowl is the driving factor on TV sales. If it ends march 2022, TV prices will not really settle until early 2023.

It's not all doom and gloom though, oh wait, yes it is.
Ford and Tesla have TENS OF THOUSANDS of vehicles (each) sitting around waiting on processors. Ford of course thought this was a great time to unveil and start taking pre-orders for a new electric vehicle which uses even more processors, the new electric F150... They got 45k pre-orders in 48 hours. Auto makers are expecting to lose $110 BILLION in sales this year over this. No way this ends in a single year when they are behind by 50%.

In GPU news...
If you're looking for a used GPU good luck, used GPU market is up nearly 15% compared to a few weeks ago on older better quality high end cards. Better 1070's have been pushed into 1080 territory, with EVGA models hitting $600+, squeezing 1070 TI and 1080's right up into each other with only $50 separating all 3 in many cases. Lest you think this is miners driving prices, the 8gig RX 470-580, the mining card of choice for many, has actually been pretty stable on price, hovering around $500. If you go looking for a card shop up a model or two, you may find it's not that much more to get a better card than you expected. Also, if you're desperate for a card and not wanting to pay through the nose, check out the older 980 models, they're reasonable (by comparison) and still do well on 1080 gaming (a 980 is close to a 1070 in performance).

If you do decide to buy a new PC to scavenge a GPU you also need to beware now.
Apparently some pre-builts are pulling a Chinese trick and using re-manufactured last gen GPUS, as if that wasn't bad enough, then if you upgrade to a newer GPU they are not deducting the price of the one removed so you effectively are paying for two GPUs. Other companies are also downgrading other items when you select an upgrade, such as switching from a nice cooler to a stock cooler because you went to a nicer cpu, and again, not deducting that. And then we have Dell, who has gone back to their ways of proprietary case, mobo, psu, ram and coolers, but wait, there's more! They have also buried on their page a pre-selected warranty upgrade that charges you $10 a month, a warranty that is supposed to be included. They are nice enough to give you the first month free so you don't notice the charge right away. There is a special place in hell for these people.

If you do decide to buy new, make sure to check every option, then check it again and one last time before hitting purchase. Make sure you are not being double charged on the GPU, all of the parts are what you selected and make sure the GPU you select is actually not just a model or brand but a specific, new model. Saying it's an Asus 3070 can mean not just any 3070 but a cut rate special oem model, at least one is shipping a mini 3070 with a blower, that thing is going to thermal throttle all over the place. They wouldn't dare try selling this on it's own but right now GPU shortages are so bad that companies are not even trying, they know you're going to buy regardless and you will take it because what choice do you have. So not only watch who you buy from but also take notes not to buy from these shady f*cks ever again.*


*Stay in I.T. long enough and you'll come to hate all of them for the things they do.


Edit:
Another stimulus just went out in the U.S. and two more monthly ones may be coming.
« Last Edit: Sat, 29 May 2021, 04:02:02 by Leslieann »
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Offline StickyBlueJuice

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #1 on: Sun, 23 May 2021, 09:28:50 »
Grim news indeed.
I had also been optimistic. Not so much for me, but for my friends who are trying to upgrade and build a new rig.
The price hikes are to be expected I think, but for GPUs that is going to mean an insane price for those at the moment.

Offline Signature

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #2 on: Sun, 23 May 2021, 15:43:48 »
Crypto crash 🤞
Very busy with studies atm.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #3 on: Sun, 23 May 2021, 21:43:26 »
Crypto crash 🤞
Buy in the dip.

This won't last.
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Offline MIGHTY CHICKEN

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #5 on: Sun, 23 May 2021, 23:47:59 »
This is sad

Offline Leslieann

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #6 on: Mon, 24 May 2021, 00:40:36 »
Crypto crash 🤞
Buy in the dip.

This won't last.

LLann, Diamond hand ?

Yes.
Still holding AMC, Sundial, Bitcoin, Etherium, Cardano and a few others.  I even staked Etherium 2.0
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Offline Signature

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #7 on: Mon, 24 May 2021, 10:16:03 »
Crypto crash 🤞
Buy in the dip.

This won't last.
If i was into crypto I would buy, but the volatility is too high for my liking!
Very busy with studies atm.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #8 on: Mon, 24 May 2021, 22:00:10 »
I get where you're coming from but you're looking at it wrong.
So long as you think/know it will recoup losses then it's only a matter of waiting it out for a great return.

You also have to consider it like the stock market, odds of you losing everything is pretty much nill unless you're borrowing or shorting.  If it drops 20%, you only lose that 20% if you sell in the dip but you still didn't lose everything. This isn't Vegas Poker where you lose everything you put in the pot, you can cut losses or ride it out. I earned enough over the last few months even with the dip I barely lost anything.
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Offline RaggaMuffin

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #9 on: Tue, 25 May 2021, 07:02:15 »
I picked the abosulte worst time to finally push the button on buying a GPU to use as an eGPU. I paid about 400 which is about $600USD for a used GTX 1080. Crazy.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #10 on: Tue, 25 May 2021, 20:58:34 »
I picked the abosulte worst time to finally push the button on buying a GPU to use as an eGPU. I paid about 400 which is about $600USD for a used GTX 1080. Crazy.
Give it a few weeks you can sell it for a profit.
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Offline Altis

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #11 on: Wed, 26 May 2021, 01:09:59 »
I'm happy to make do with what I've got in terms of PC hardware -- provided that software "updates" don't keep grinding things down to a halt.
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Offline Leslieann

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #12 on: Sat, 29 May 2021, 04:03:08 »
Another stimulus just went out in the U.S. and two more monthly ones may be coming.

If you are looking for a GPU, expect prices to go up AGAIN.
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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #13 on: Sat, 29 May 2021, 07:24:45 »
Another stimulus just went out in the U.S. and two more monthly ones may be coming.

If you are looking for a GPU, expect prices to go up AGAIN.

Instead of Gpu, maybe Stonks !!

Offline Sintpinty

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #14 on: Sat, 29 May 2021, 20:56:20 »
bye bye chances of getting a electronic device

Offline Leslieann

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #15 on: Sat, 29 May 2021, 22:24:29 »
Another stimulus just went out in the U.S. and two more monthly ones may be coming.

If you are looking for a GPU, expect prices to go up AGAIN.
Instead of Gpu, maybe Stonks !!
Well considering all the volatile stocks are up, and others earn very little, stock is good long term but not short term.
Coins are also down, one theory is hedge funds are selling their coin to help cover shorts on the stock market (there is lots of things going crazy as a result). Pile this on top of Iran banning some crypto, China banning some crypto and Elon taking down the market to stroke his massive ego.

All that said, coins will recover, it's the best place for you money if you ask me. There is so much good going on in crypto right now and despite that the price is down because of what I said above. There is tons of announcements of mainstreaming of coins so it should be going up and yet it isn't. Great time for people wanting to get in.


Even pro investors are saying everything is upside down and screwy and nothing makes sense, I laughed when I heard that but frankly they're not wrong, things are screwy at the moment. Great time to invest, but in what is the question.  Certainly not Doge.
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Offline Leslieann

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #16 on: Tue, 01 June 2021, 22:28:47 »
Intel's keynote today stated we can expect a couple years of chip shortages, if not more.
Multiple suppliers are running short on supplies, and not just chips, everything. Who could have foreseen that running super lean with little to no spare inventory could bite you in the ass...
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Offline phinix

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #17 on: Thu, 03 June 2021, 02:55:12 »
I don't understand, why ar we having those shortages?
Why they cant produce more?
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Offline fohat.digs

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #18 on: Thu, 03 June 2021, 07:55:49 »

Why they cant produce more?


Seems like it could be done, given the demand.

Vaccines take years to develop, but when it became a crisis last year it happened in a small number of months.

Now, when I hear something like "it takes years to set up a foundry" it makes me think that with the truly colossal pot of money to be made there must be people who would put in a lot of overtime to get there first.
Over the past few decades there has been a redistribution of dignity upward. The Republicans valorized entrepreneurs, CEOs and Wall Street. The Democratic Party became dominated by people in the creative class, who attended competitive colleges, moved to affluent metro areas, married each other and ladled advantages onto their kids so they could leap even farther ahead. There was a bipartisan embrace of a culture of individualism, which opens up a lot of space for people with resources and social support but means loneliness and abandonment for people without. Four years of college became the definition of the good life, which left roughly two-thirds of the country out. And so came the crisis that Biden was elected to address the poisonous combination of elite insularity and vicious populist resentment. A group of people so enraged by a lack of respect that they are willing to risk death by Covid if they get to stick a middle finger in the air against those who they think look down on them. They are willing to torch our institutions because they are so resentful against the people who run them. The Democratic spending bills are economic packages that serve moral and cultural purposes. They should be measured by their cultural impact, not merely by some wonky analysis. In real, tangible ways, they would redistribute dignity back downward. They would support hundreds of thousands of jobs for home health care workers, child care workers, construction workers, metal workers, supply chain workers. They would ease the indignity millions of parents face having to raise their children in poverty.  David Brooks NYT 2021

Offline tp4tissue

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #19 on: Thu, 03 June 2021, 09:11:04 »

Why they cant produce more?


Seems like it could be done, given the demand.

Vaccines take years to develop, but when it became a crisis last year it happened in a small number of months.

Now, when I hear something like "it takes years to set up a foundry" it makes me think that with the truly colossal pot of money to be made there must be people who would put in a lot of overtime to get there first.



It's possible to do it in China,  not anywhere with worker rights/ safety/ unions/ vacation time.

China built Tesla a whole gigafactory in 1 year, reached volume car production in the same year..  How long did that take nevada.



Offline Leslieann

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #20 on: Thu, 03 June 2021, 09:13:35 »
First there was a shortage due to covid, that's still cassing supply issues with parts they need, even raw material is limited.
Peopel working from home decided they needed a/better computer to work from home, that drop up prices and cleaned out what inventory was left.
Car companies, among others, cancelled orders due to covid expecting sales slumps, then expected to just get right back in line for more chips, nope, go to the end of the line and start over. So now they need more to make up for what they didn't order and have to wait, plus they need what they need on a regular basis now since they cleaned out everything they had remaining. Then they all finally decided electric was the way to go and that they need to try and compete with Tesla, so that means even more computers, screens, battery monitors, chargers, etc... Other industries decided to add Google and Alexa to everything including toasters, that also means more chips. So demand shot up even higher. This is on top of the fact that PCs got new higher refresh screens and everyone wants them and the new GPU and CPU to match. Of course miners also want cards (though not at these prices!) and so do A.I. researchers, who have massive grants and corporate backers so they can make those back room deals and buy up inventory before anyone else even sees it. To top it all off, Taiwan is way behind on rainfall for the season and is in such a bad drought they stopped watering cops in hopes of keeping the fabs running and even if you could the shipping lanes are so backed up you would have a hard time getting it here.


Basically the entire supply chain is completely hosed.
Ever been in traffic and one car slams on the brakes and everything behind has a ripple effect for miles, same thing here and we're at the very end of that backup.
« Last Edit: Thu, 03 June 2021, 09:17:07 by Leslieann »
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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #21 on: Thu, 03 June 2021, 09:45:06 »
Ever been in traffic and one car slams on the brakes and everything behind has a ripple effect for miles, same thing here and we're at the very end of that backup.


You mean the very beginning .. projected 3 -5 year recovery.

Offline phinix

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #22 on: Thu, 03 June 2021, 09:59:45 »
First there was a shortage due to covid, that's still cassing supply issues with parts they need, even raw material is limited.
Peopel working from home decided they needed a/better computer to work from home, that drop up prices and cleaned out what inventory was left.
Car companies, among others, cancelled orders due to covid expecting sales slumps, then expected to just get right back in line for more chips, nope, go to the end of the line and start over. So now they need more to make up for what they didn't order and have to wait, plus they need what they need on a regular basis now since they cleaned out everything they had remaining. Then they all finally decided electric was the way to go and that they need to try and compete with Tesla, so that means even more computers, screens, battery monitors, chargers, etc... Other industries decided to add Google and Alexa to everything including toasters, that also means more chips. So demand shot up even higher. This is on top of the fact that PCs got new higher refresh screens and everyone wants them and the new GPU and CPU to match. Of course miners also want cards (though not at these prices!) and so do A.I. researchers, who have massive grants and corporate backers so they can make those back room deals and buy up inventory before anyone else even sees it. To top it all off, Taiwan is way behind on rainfall for the season and is in such a bad drought they stopped watering cops in hopes of keeping the fabs running and even if you could the shipping lanes are so backed up you would have a hard time getting it here.


Basically the entire supply chain is completely hosed.
Ever been in traffic and one car slams on the brakes and everything behind has a ripple effect for miles, same thing here and we're at the very end of that backup.

Thanks for explaining it, L  :-*
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Offline fohat.digs

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #23 on: Thu, 03 June 2021, 12:23:24 »

Basically the entire supply chain is completely hosed.


I get it. But my point is that with unprecedented demand and oceans of available capitol, miracles can occur. I have always believed that demand drives supply.
Over the past few decades there has been a redistribution of dignity upward. The Republicans valorized entrepreneurs, CEOs and Wall Street. The Democratic Party became dominated by people in the creative class, who attended competitive colleges, moved to affluent metro areas, married each other and ladled advantages onto their kids so they could leap even farther ahead. There was a bipartisan embrace of a culture of individualism, which opens up a lot of space for people with resources and social support but means loneliness and abandonment for people without. Four years of college became the definition of the good life, which left roughly two-thirds of the country out. And so came the crisis that Biden was elected to address the poisonous combination of elite insularity and vicious populist resentment. A group of people so enraged by a lack of respect that they are willing to risk death by Covid if they get to stick a middle finger in the air against those who they think look down on them. They are willing to torch our institutions because they are so resentful against the people who run them. The Democratic spending bills are economic packages that serve moral and cultural purposes. They should be measured by their cultural impact, not merely by some wonky analysis. In real, tangible ways, they would redistribute dignity back downward. They would support hundreds of thousands of jobs for home health care workers, child care workers, construction workers, metal workers, supply chain workers. They would ease the indignity millions of parents face having to raise their children in poverty.  David Brooks NYT 2021

Offline tp4tissue

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #24 on: Thu, 03 June 2021, 17:03:33 »

Basically the entire supply chain is completely hosed.


I get it. But my point is that with unprecedented demand and oceans of available capitol, miracles can occur. I have always believed that demand drives supply.


If only you can build a fab with just money.

It's not like that fohat,

For example,  When Tp4 was conducting preliminaries for uncle's new club, had to talk to local gangsters,  then more gangsters to not step on supply of local booze, then more gangsters/dealers/pimps to round out the "regulars" who would occupy the club so it looks like a party to the real-customers.

Fabs are the same, except you replace the hookers/dealers/gangsters with  slave labor/ritalin prescriptions/corporate executives.

Honestly it wastes a stupid amount of time, and everyone wants to get drunk for some reason, it's like the totality of people who work contracts are alcoholics.

Theres a huge amount of friction because so many people are involved and wants a cut.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #25 on: Fri, 04 June 2021, 00:35:14 »
I get it. But my point is that with unprecedented demand and oceans of available capitol, miracles can occur. I have always believed that demand drives supply.
It's 4-5 years to setup a fab and get it up to speed.
You can get the building designed and permitted and built within 2 easily, but chip fabs are extremely complicated and you actually spend a lot of time tuning and tweaking them, especially at the high end. It takes Intel months to gear up for a new chip and get production up to full speed and that's in an established, well tuned fab that was dedicated to making only their own chips using their own people, they have the process down. Starting from scratch and being setup for any orders that come your way, with lots of new people is far more difficult. Don't forget, Intel has spent YEARS trying to get to 10nm and failed, forget them doing 7nm like TSMC and Samsung, in fact Intel is considering hiring TSMC to make the next Intel chips because they just can't get it done themselves. Clearly it's not easy.

TSMC was already breaking ground on one fab which was scheduled to open just before demand outstripped supply (4-5 years), but as they were about to break though demand skyrocketed and now they are looking at two fabs on that property to hopefully get open at that time and considering a third someplace else as well.  Demand shot up that fast on them.
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Offline tp4tissue

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #26 on: Fri, 04 June 2021, 07:50:22 »
Intel has spent YEARS trying to get to 10nm and failed,


Intel's 10 is as good as tsmc 7 (in design),  but they just haven't gotten it right yet.

Offline Leslieann

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Re: The great chip shortage 2021 (End of may update it's getting worse)
« Reply #27 on: Fri, 04 June 2021, 19:11:10 »
To a degree, yes, but TSMC is doing 4 or 5nm as well.

Intel is 1-2 generations behind depending on how you look at it and don't forget Intel spun down several of their fabs several years back in anticipation of getting it working. This was why 8th gen (and later) was so limited in supply at the higher end, they had already begin transitioning to something they couldn't get working and just kept digging the hole deeper and deeper. The only good side of this is that it didn't effect other industries too much.
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