Ok some developments on this - It's clearly a switch issue.
I reflowed a few of the diodes, made no difference.
Testing the switch contacts on the pcb with tweezers is a little difficult because a little slip of my finger can result in a double key press. Since the issue I'm experiencing is sporadic anyway (I went a streak of 30+ successful key presses today with the "dodgy" switch while testing), I couldn't be sure whether this test case was actually working fine or the same as the bad switch.
Instead, I have a box of tangerines here and I held one on the back of the pcb and pressed it a bunch of times. It worked perfectly, but the panda on the other side didn't.
I soldered some test wires to the switch contacts to measure the resistance of the switch with a multimeter. This was interesting..
A lot of the time, the resistance of the bad switch showed infinite, even when pressed. I mashed it a bunch of times, as I often have to to get the key to register, and I started getting readings. But every key press was a different resistance, and way too high.
I'd press it once, get a reading of 30 ohms. Again, 15 ohms, again 45 ohms, 8 ohms.. 3 ohms.. 30 ohms. Just all over the place, and occasionally an infinite reading. So it seems like the readings I am getting would correspond to the "working" key presses, but this shows that even those are not functioning correctly. I measured the tangerine switch and it showed 2 ohms every time, which is what I would expect for a closed switch.
I also noticed that wiggling the stem of the switch caused the resistance to change a lot, ranging from high single digits (~8) to infinite.
Edit: Here is one of the bad switches opened up.


I pressed the slider a few times while connected to the multimeter, and it showed the same bad behaviour. Very rarely a reading of <3 ohms.
It seems like maybe I need to slightly bend one of those two copper sheets towards the other. Which one do I bend?
I'm guessing the one on the left (the short, stumpy one).. I've bent the right leaf slightly on a previous switch and it alters the tactile bump significantly, and seems impossible to restore 100% back.
Or maybe I should not touch the leaves themselves but instead try and get the little contact nub to protrude a little more?
I never really bumped these contacts when cleaning or assembling, they seem extremely sensitive to their position and angle. Not sure why I seem to be experiencing this with so many of my switches..