Author Topic: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?  (Read 1712 times)

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Offline -Jerry-

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A patent that of Apples I saw today regarding using AR to project interfaces on surfaces for the user reminded me strongly of a piece of technology called SixthSense from an old TED talk from 2009 and it got me thinking about all the other examples of technologies demoed in the past come back around eventually, some sooner than others, and how some predictions were horribly off the mark.

I still remember that talk vividly as one of the most futuristic TED talks from back then, the other two being a 2006 demo of early multitouch from 2006 by a guy named Jefferson Han from NYU. He started a company that Microsoft bought out and ended up turning into the Microsoft Surface. Then there was a piece of technology called Photosynth that promised to be able to create 3D recreations from crowd sourced images, which Microsoft bought and then killed off.
     
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Offline noisyturtle

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I came up with the idea for The Sims video game about 6 years before the first one ever came out. I still have the design docs drawn in colored pencil to prove it! It's actually weird how similar the real game turned out vs a design doc some kid made in their basement. I even had a note scrawled about how they would speak in their own gibberish language no one can understand.


Offline Maledicted

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A patent that of Apples I saw today regarding using AR to project interfaces on surfaces for the user reminded me strongly of a piece of technology called SixthSense from an old TED talk from 2009 and it got me thinking about all the other examples of technologies demoed in the past come back around eventually, some sooner than others, and how some predictions were horribly off the mark.

I still remember that talk vividly as one of the most futuristic TED talks from back then, the other two being a 2006 demo of early multitouch from 2006 by a guy named Jefferson Han from NYU. He started a company that Microsoft bought out and ended up turning into the Microsoft Surface. Then there was a piece of technology called Photosynth that promised to be able to create 3D recreations from crowd sourced images, which Microsoft bought and then killed off.

Multi-touch has been around since the 70s. MP3 players came about in the late 80s. Most new ideas usually sit around for 20 or more years before some major marketing campaigns make people suddenly care. The more I research the history of technology, the more that seems to be the rule and not the exception.

Offline Findecanor

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In the mid '90s I envisioned good large glass flat panel computer with pen input, i.e. like a iPad Pro.
Pen computers already existed but were crude.

1999: A research group I visited had a mock-up of augmented reality "picture frame" with back camera. Again, we had to wait until the iPad before that happened for real.

Back in the '90s, after the rise of networked multiplayer video games I also thought that virtual reality would become popular. I stopped doing research in it in '00 and kept my ideas to myself because I understood that too rich immersion could be harmful.
The headsets are back now, but what I see is mostly single-player, thankfully. Someone else will eventually get the same ideas as I have, but at least it hasn't happened in twenty years.

TV-show QI's "General Ignorance" segment. My name for the show was "Buzzword".

I thought that in the future, we would wear our voice assistants in pendants hanging from around our necks. This seemed much more plausible than stationary speakers or bricks of glass that people are addicted to.
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Offline noisyturtle

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Here's three for the future:
I predict virtual tourism using virtual and augmented reality to become huge business.
I predict 3D printing things at home you purchase off Amazon with an Amazon-branded proprietary 3D printer they will sell at a loss. It could be any company, but Amazon is the one that could do it with the least risk.
Self-driving vehicles will put delivery, rideshare, and long-haul drivers out of business.
« Last Edit: Tue, 21 July 2020, 23:20:28 by noisyturtle »

Offline -Jerry-

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I predict 3D printing things at home you purchase off Amazon with an Amazon-branded proprietary 3D printer they will sell at a loss. It could be any company, but Amazon is the one that could do it with the least risk.

That’s an interesting one and matches some of the choices Amazon has made in the past like the ad-supported Fire tablet. A first party printer and a kindle-like CRM bound object store.
     
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Offline Kitty Stark

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This is probably a little underwhelming but I distinctly recall telling my mother while I was still in high school that someday cell phones would start to loop back and get bigger and heavier, and eventually we'd be back to the flip phone or even the old bricks.

There was also a career day where someone visited our school from Corning Glass (responsible for Corell glassware, Gorilla glass in your phones, Pyrex glass, etc.) and brought a display that was basically a scroll tube, except that it unrolled into a completely clear sheet of glass and it worked as a screen. It was one of the coolest things I'd ever seen, and that was back in ~2009.

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Offline -Jerry-

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There was also a career day where someone visited our school from Corning Glass (responsible for Corell glassware, Gorilla glass in your phones, Pyrex glass, etc.) and brought a display that was basically a scroll tube, except that it unrolled into a completely clear sheet of glass and it worked as a screen. It was one of the coolest things I'd ever seen, and that was back in ~2009.

It’s crazy how things like that exist then don’t get brought to market, isn’t it? Logic dictates that there must be a good reason why they didn’t take off, be it cost or practicality, but still.
     
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Offline fohat.digs

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This is now over 20 years old:

https://www.wired.com/2000/04/joy-2/
Were our leaders just stupid? Well, maybe. But there’s a deeper explanation of the profoundly self-destructive behavior of Trump and his allies: They were all members of America’s cult of selfishness. You see, the modern US right is committed to the proposition that greed is good, that we’re all better off when individuals engage in the untrammeled pursuit of self-interest. In their vision, unrestricted profit maximization by businesses and unregulated consumer choice is the recipe for a good society.
Support for this proposition is, if anything, more emotional than intellectual. I’ve long been struck by the intensity of right-wing anger against relatively trivial regulations, like bans on phosphates in detergent and efficiency standards for light bulbs. It’s the principle of the thing: Many on the right are enraged at any suggestion that their actions should take other people’s welfare into account. This rage is sometimes portrayed as love of freedom. But people who insist on the right to pollute are notably unbothered by, say, federal agents tear-gassing peaceful protesters. What they call “freedom” is actually absence of responsibility.
Rational policy in a pandemic, however, is all about taking responsibility. The main reason you shouldn’t go to a bar and should wear a mask isn’t self-protection, although that’s part of it; the point is that congregating in noisy, crowded spaces or exhaling droplets into shared air puts others at risk. And that’s the kind of thing America’s right just hates, hates to hear. Anger at any suggestion of social responsibility also helps explain the looming fiscal catastrophe.  – Paul Krugman 2020-07-28 NYT

Offline -Jerry-

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #10 on: Thu, 23 July 2020, 03:47:00 »
This is now over 20 years old:

https://www.wired.com/2000/04/joy-2/

Don’t be silly 2000 isn’t 20 years a...oh.. wait.
     
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Offline noisyturtle

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #11 on: Sat, 25 July 2020, 20:29:55 »
Here's one: how about a one-way valve on the side of plastic trash bins so when you pull a full bag out it doesn't get stuck from pressure. The valve can be locked from the outside with a simple latch, and would not be on the direct bottom so trash juice doesn't escape.

Offline -Jerry-

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #12 on: Sun, 26 July 2020, 01:54:38 »
That IS one of life’s great unsolved nuisances!
     
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Offline Olumin

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #13 on: Sun, 26 July 2020, 16:18:52 »
I remember envisioning a flashlight for a science fiction setting, actually is was a weapon light, that would wirelessly interface with the user to automatically adjust brightness, color temperature and focus depending on the environment and the user’s needs.

I recently picked up a Surefire with Intellibeam function, which automatically adjusts the brightness sleeplessly from 1500 to 15 Lumens using a Light sensitive sensor build-into the reflector of the torch. The sensor captures ambient and reflected light to adjust the light intensity depending on how dark/bright the surrounding environment is. It actually works very well, especially outdoors.

I suppose we are still a distance away from auto-focusing and color correcting flashlights.

Someday... 


Offline -Jerry-

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #14 on: Sun, 26 July 2020, 16:28:38 »
I remember envisioning a flashlight for a science fiction setting, actually is was a weapon light, that would wirelessly interface with the user to automatically adjust brightness, color temperature and focus depending on the environment and the user’s needs.

I recently picked up a Surefire with Intellibeam function, which automatically adjusts the brightness sleeplessly from 1500 to 15 Lumens using a Light sensitive sensor build-into the reflector of the torch. The sensor captures ambient and reflected light to adjust the light intensity depending on how dark/bright the surrounding environment is. It actually works very well, especially outdoors.

I suppose we are still a distance away from auto-focusing and color correcting flashlights.

Someday... 


Reminds me a little of how amazed I was the first time I saw a demo of matrix/multibeam headlights that automatically dipped the headlight only at the part of the road occupied by the oncoming vehicle or road sign. Logically, it makes complete sense, but seeing it as a concept blew my mind somewhat.
     
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Offline Olumin

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #16 on: Sun, 26 July 2020, 19:37:18 »
Color correcting flash light ??  what correction would it do ?

Maybe “correction” is the wrong word, but I suppose such a light would alter its color temperature to make certain colors of illuminated objects more vibrant or visible while subduing others, all depending on the tactical situation and environment.

It might even be able to emit a wide range of wavelengths, into the infrared or UV. It was designed as a weapon light after all, to be used in conjunction with other vision-enhancing gear that would be worn.  When used near another artificial light sauce it could "color correct" it by complementing its light to cancel out any blue or red tones. It would be able provide perfectly white light in all situations.

That was the idea anyway.

Offline noisyturtle

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #17 on: Sun, 26 July 2020, 20:33:32 »
Color correcting flash light ??  what correction would it do ?

Maybe “correction” is the wrong word, but I suppose such a light would alter its color temperature to make certain colors of illuminated objects more vibrant or visible while subduing others, all depending on the tactical situation and environment.
.


Like adding an HDR effect to reality? There are sunglasses that do this.

Offline -Jerry-

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #18 on: Mon, 27 July 2020, 02:53:13 »
Color correcting flash light ??  what correction would it do ?

Maybe “correction” is the wrong word, but I suppose such a light would alter its color temperature to make certain colors of illuminated objects more vibrant or visible while subduing others, all depending on the tactical situation and environment.
.


Like adding an HDR effect to reality? There are sunglasses that do this.

It's almost frustrating, with a photography background, that the world looks far more vibrant with sunglasses on than you capture when you try to take a picture.
     
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Offline Sintpinty

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #19 on: Mon, 27 July 2020, 09:56:17 »
3d printed food might be in fancy restaurants . How would that filament taste like, idk.

Offline Olumin

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #20 on: Mon, 27 July 2020, 10:27:21 »
3d printed food might be in fancy restaurants . How would that filament taste like, idk.

They say replicated food doesn’t taste like the real thing...

Offline Findecanor

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #21 on: Mon, 27 July 2020, 13:45:02 »
3d printed food might be in fancy restaurants . How would that filament taste like, idk.
KFC will be testing 3D-printed "chicken" nuggets in Russia.
Vat-grown chicken cells in a plant-based matrix. Hmm... KFC isn't what I would call fancy restaurant.

Taco Bell (or Pizza Hut outside the US) on the other hand... That's fancy in the future apparently. The only restaurant to survive the franchise wars.
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Offline -Jerry-

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #22 on: Mon, 27 July 2020, 15:00:07 »
I've been eating artificially grown food for decades.

It's grown in massive fermentation vats and then made into meat-like shapes.  It's high in protein, high in fibre, low in saturated fat and contains no cholesterol. Living in the future, people!
     
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Offline Sintpinty

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #23 on: Wed, 29 July 2020, 14:59:24 »
I've been eating artificially grown food for decades.

It's grown in massive fermentation vats and then made into meat-like shapes.  It's high in protein, high in fibre, low in saturated fat and contains no cholesterol. Living in the future, people!

I mean i've tried cricket chips for my sisters science experiment and they weren't too bad.

Offline -Jerry-

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #24 on: Wed, 29 July 2020, 15:09:03 »
I've been eating artificially grown food for decades.

It's grown in massive fermentation vats and then made into meat-like shapes.  It's high in protein, high in fibre, low in saturated fat and contains no cholesterol. Living in the future, people!

I mean i've tried cricket chips for my sisters science experiment and they weren't too bad.

If it's good enough for the tailies in Snowpiercer, why not, eh?

I prefer my lab grown food to come from mycoprotein :P
     
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Offline 1391401

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #25 on: Wed, 29 July 2020, 15:18:39 »
Sort of the opposite - as a kid I got a used IBM PS1  hand me down and I remember thinking how cool it would be if I could touch the screen to control it but then I immediately though how that's impossible and this is the best its ever going to get and they can't possibly make it smaller or detect a fingerprint on the screen.
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Offline -Jerry-

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #26 on: Wed, 29 July 2020, 15:25:01 »
Sort of the opposite - as a kid I got a used IBM PS1  hand me down and I remember thinking how cool it would be if I could touch the screen to control it but then I immediately though how that's impossible and this is the best its ever going to get and they can't possibly make it smaller or detect a fingerprint on the screen.

I really wish I could remember the model of the first used PC I got given. I remember it was only a monochrome display and had dual 5¼ floppy drives, but I don't recall it having knobs on the right on the screen, so I don't think was a IBM XT. Regardless, I don't recall having any touchscreen thoughts, hehe. It's kind of nice though, that you thought "this is as good as it gets" - it shows an appreciation of what you had then and not a desire for the next cool thing :)
     
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Offline noisyturtle

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #27 on: Wed, 29 July 2020, 16:19:31 »
I predict cannabis-infused products will be sold in USA grocery and corner stores within 5 years. Edibles, drinks, sauces etc

(I know this thread isn't for futurist predicting per se, but it's fun)

Offline -Jerry-

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #28 on: Wed, 29 July 2020, 16:24:28 »
(I know this thread isn't for futurist predicting per se, but it's fun)

Psh, my intentions were very broad, I approve very much of predictions! ;)
     
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Offline Maledicted

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #29 on: Thu, 30 July 2020, 13:35:51 »
Here's one: how about a one-way valve on the side of plastic trash bins so when you pull a full bag out it doesn't get stuck from pressure. The valve can be locked from the outside with a simple latch, and would not be on the direct bottom so trash juice doesn't escape.

How good of an idea this is cannot be overstated. I imagine even just buying trash cans, drilling holes in them, and installing your own cheap valves could net you a nice little side hustle.

Sort of the opposite - as a kid I got a used IBM PS1  hand me down and I remember thinking how cool it would be if I could touch the screen to control it but then I immediately though how that's impossible and this is the best its ever going to get and they can't possibly make it smaller or detect a fingerprint on the screen.

Have you ever seen Die Hard? Those were functional touch screens in the intro, back in 1988. I think touch screens have been around since at least the 70s or so. Also, IBM released their own just one year after the PS/1:

« Last Edit: Thu, 30 July 2020, 16:52:34 by Maledicted »

Offline Findecanor

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #30 on: Thu, 30 July 2020, 17:18:32 »
I think touch screens have been around since at least the 70s or so.
Capacitive touchscreen: UK air traffic control in 1965. (Bill Buxton: Multi-Touch Systems that I Have Known and Loved)
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Offline 1391401

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #31 on: Fri, 31 July 2020, 01:24:46 »
Have you ever seen Die Hard? Those were functional touch screens in the intro, back in 1988. I think touch screens have been around since at least the 70s or so. Also, IBM released their own just one year after the PS/1
I mean I was like 7.   As a 35 year old yes I understand how short sighted my viewpoint was back then.
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Offline captain

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #32 on: Thu, 06 August 2020, 18:12:54 »
Back when, ”640K is all anyone will ever need” I drew up specs for my ultimate Amiga: one GIGABYTE of RAM, and one TERABYTE of hdd.


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Offline -Jerry-

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Re: Do you have any strong memories of predictions of future technologies?
« Reply #33 on: Thu, 06 August 2020, 18:14:56 »
Back when, ”640K is all anyone will ever need”

640k? Nobody needs more than 16k...

     
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