"Someone calling themselves “Magamyman” just made $553,000 placing bets the U.S. would bomb Iran by February 28 and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be out of power.
The first of several bets they made was placed just 71 minutes before the news broke publicly that air strikes had killed him. When this person bought in, the market had the likelihood of this happening at just 17% probability by February 28. Magamyman turned roughly $87,000 into over half a million dollars overnight. Someone else going by the pseudonym "Curseaaaaaaa," made $757,000 betting Khamenei would be out of power by March 31.
Analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly-created accounts made a profit of $1 million by correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. This is all some lucky, well-timed betting.
The bets were placed on Polymarket, which happens to have Don Jr. as an advisory board member. Jr’s venture firm, 1789 Capital, also made a significant “tens of millions of dollars” investment in Polymarket."