Economic Depression.

[tp4tissue]

Seems like, it's a real possibility.

Thoughts ?

[chyros]

Seeing orders and projects getting cancelled or failing already. Pretty sure we're already in it.

[tp4tissue]

And Europe wants to Rearm. That costs money, where's the money coming from.

Oh, Money isn't real,  but someone somewhere has to dig the metals, synth the chemicals to make the boobs.

Here's the stupid part, they just assume all their usual sources will sell them these precursors to weapons. 


Case in point, why is the French so mad at Rv5ia of late, it's because Rv5ia began to support the liberation of French colonialist mining in Africa, uran1vm, such and such.

France realistically, has 3 days worth of Artillery. They'd get rolled after 3 days.

The most credible sources indicate Rv5 has approximately 75% of munition stockpiles remaining.


But Tp4, what's with they is buy Nort coria shells,  reliable sources say that's because they don't need the good shells they make for what is currently a successfully completed campaign. 

[noisyturtle]

If Trump declares martial law on April 20th and starts arresting/deporting/killing US born citizens, an economic depression will be the very least of our worries.
Next week has some real potential to be an actual bloodbath. Innocent, free American blood spilled by the hand of its supposed leader.

[chyros]

Backed several kickstarters, all of them failing due to tariffs, some resulted in companies shutting down and laying off everyone overnight.

Yeah.

[tp4tissue]

Backed several kickstarters, all of them failing due to tariffs, some resulted in companies shutting down and laying off everyone overnight.

Yeah.

In keyboards?

[chyros]

Backed several kickstarters, all of them failing due to tariffs, some resulted in companies shutting down and laying off everyone overnight.

Yeah.

In keyboards?

No, I haven't spent money on keyboards in years. I run entirely on donations.

[tp4tissue]

This thing about truckers.

The Tsunami is happening.

[fohat.digs]

This might look like good news if it wasn't coupled with a boatload of negative factors.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/23/inventory-of-new-houses-for-sale-stuck-at-highest-level-since-2007-driven-by-gluts-in-the-south-west-prices-fall-incentives-soar-sales-rise/

[tp4tissue]

The money is moving towards alternative asset classes, gold, estates.

[Leslieann]

Seems like, it's a real possibility.

Thoughts ?

A little known but good metric to tell how things are going is when roadside billboards are advertising billboards, and I've been seeing them do this a bit. Not a lot, but a few. Radio is doing the same.

My estimate, we're in a recession already. Depression may be coming.

Trump will blame Dems/Biden and the fed but the reality is it's all his own doing. The fed is the only thing keeping inflation from causing a full blown depression.

[tp4tissue]

The smart people @ the office tells Tp4, we're headed into a situation where the Fed's "tools" don't really work, because there's no longer any coherence with policy.

[noisyturtle]

The company I used to work for is raising the price of nearly all their products by $100 due to tariffs and the cost of manufacturing moving forward.
We are talking about items that only cost around $200-400 to begin with, so things are going to get bad.
It's not as if working people are making more money. In fact, I had a creditor call and threaten to garnish my working wages and tax return yesterday if I did not start making payments on my student loans. I told him I've been unemployed for over a year and have zero savings, then laughed and hung up. ****ing idiot, you can't threaten someone who has nothing.

[Leslieann]

The smart people @ the office tells Tp4, we're headed into a situation where the Fed's "tools" don't really work, because there's no longer any coherence with policy.

The fed can only do so much and it needs to go hand in hand with policy.
None of it matters when tarriffs are so high no company can afford or is willing to buy anything overseas (where it all comes from, are you going to place an order when you aren't sure what it will cost by the time it arrives, especially at an insane rate, hell no. You can't do business that way. Just look at the Nintendo Switch 2, that's why they delayed it.

It's already created a 2-3 month backlog, even if corrected today, in a couple months is when you will see the current inventory dry up and prices rise before slowly coming back down over a period of months and only if it stabilize and shipments arrive.

Right now is when companies need to be making their bulk Christmas orders in order to receive it in time, between now and late summer is pretty much the worst time of the year to be playing with tariffs on China. A lot of stores, like Target and Best Buy make 90% of their yearly profit over Christmas, it's why they all have so many registers sitting idle most of the year, they're there for the holiday rush. Best Buy probably won't survive and they won't be alone and that's without a recession, that's just from a small tariff creating instability. One local bike shop here closed its doors the first day they announced the first tariffs.

If it does impact Christmas it's going to be just like the Covid chip shortage except for almost everything from China and it's going to kill a LOT of companies.

[noisyturtle]

Over the next few years we will see middle class and lower income people be forced into hardship and struggle to afford even the basics, while the wealthy amass more wealth and receive deeper tax breaks. The the government will wonder why people are not spending more, creditors are unable to collect, corporations are losing money while raising prices, and people are refusing to have children. Gosh, it's almost as if there's some kinda correlation.

[fohat.digs]

I am feeling more and more like there will be a "blue wave" next year and Drumpf will quickly be gone, but we will still have 2 more years of Bowman (aka JD Vance) who is not insane but is still extremely horrible. It is astonishing to think that, at this point, John Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett are 2 of our country's most important defenders ....

https://roberthubbell.substack.com/p/political-gravity-pulls-trump-back

[tp4tissue]

The political problem is a tiny gear in our catastrophic machine.

We're rearranging the deck chairs to the titanic at this point.

The members of the world entirely / deliberately refusing to awaken to the fact that the ship is sinking, and there are exactly zero lifeboats, and that even if there were, no rescue is coming, and there's no where else in the ocean to sail to.


Every politician of every party have the narrow interest of self delusion.


Climate change is as in Fohat's linked article always going to "settle its account." by, killing all humans.

[fohat.digs]

"Trump voters are starting to turn on him because they took him seriously when he said he would lower costs and didn’t take him seriously when he said he’d act like a dictator. And now they are realizing the opposite is true."

- Chris Murphy 2025-04-27

[tp4tissue]

Tp4 mulling over buying the dip.

In principle, the money has no where to go besides stonks and bitcoin in the short term.

Gold seems good, lots of uncertainty in the market still, so gold is always the haven.  Those costco coins went from 2000 to 3500.


The problem always is, well how do you get rid of it. Because the gold exchange places are really shady.   Gangsters will camp out near them, or get tipped off by the owner.

Then they follow you home after a big exchange, then plan to rob your house. 

This is VERY common. There are gangs that specialize in this type of robbery.

Even if you deposit in a bank right away, NOW YOU'RE MARKED. They know who you are and where you live.

Prolly go with the ETF.

[fohat.digs]

NOW YOU'RE MARKED.

Remember that TP4 lives in  Noo Joisey.

[tp4tissue]

As an ultra poor, Tp4 has to be extra careful robbers don't stealz his gam4n' PC.

This is why Tp4 doesn't go outside, or to any festivals, where someone might ram him with an SUV.  That's the world we live in now.

BC, Vancouver, it's a reasonably ritzy area.