I have a couple of good-quality drives that I use for storage. I bought them new and do not use them as "daily" drivers so they have very little mileage on them. I trust them to keep my data long-term.
Do you foresee SSDs being as "dependable" as HD technology for the long haul (ie 1-2 decades and/or until technology completely re-invents itself again)?
As Smknjoe said, more and more servers are switching to them (Ebay, I believe is all SSD now and it saves them a ton of money). Your phone already has one. The Bios in your computers use similar technology and they are decades old, so it's not new technology, just a new use because it has gotten cheap and fast enough in large enough capacity.
So obviously long term storage isn't an issue for them (they are also smaller, more efficient, faster, withstand shock better and can be waterproofed), it's the constant write and re-writes that kills them and not only is that getting better, but also entirely overblown. Yes, constant writes will harm them, but they are smart and reshuffle data so that one spot doesn't wear faster than the rest. Anything getting that much abuse isn't going to last long regardless (as server admins how long drives last). They will last plenty long in a desktop so long as it it's not always 80% full. Remember, most of your data is written once then rarely changes. Cache is actually the only thing that changes often and even most of that remains constant. It's only a few megs that are constantly being re-written.
But... For your computer, it won't matter.
I always tell people expect 5 years from a desktop, which a properly sized SSD should handle, but even that is almost irrelevant as the home desktop will be dead in 5-10 years anyhow. By then, your phone will be as capable as your desktop is now, and have a wireless display, mouse and keyboard. It will have a desktop interface when you connect to a big screen. I suspect tablets and notebooks will follow a similar strategy, becoming little more than varying screen size/interfaces that all run from your phone wirelessly. The Unbuntu phone (not the OS, the phone they plan to build) is exactly as I describe, there is also the
Clambook, which uses your phone for the notebook's processor and HD (it's in development), and there was the
Motorola Atrix, that did similar, but was waaaaaay overpriced and never took off. Apple designed IOS as a branch of OSX, and Win8 is designed for tablets, desktops and to a lesser degree phones. .
We are currently working backwards, we always have our phone with us, and our data stored elsewhere, then try to sync everything. This is wrong. Store everything in your phone, it's right there, and simply run everything from it. Most newer phones can already do this, they only lack a desktop interface (just an app), the wireless screen (Intel has it, it's just not efficient enough for a phone) and the storage (which is coming). Many already have HDMI output and with a bluetooth mouse and keyboard you can already do this. You can also use a USB OTG cable on some devices, which allow you to connect anything USB to your phone. So the groundwork is already in place, it's only a matter of time. I have already used my phone this way, and those new watches that connect to your phone... There you go.
We will still have desktops in the form of workstations for work because you need a bit more grunt and employers would prefer the data to remain on site, servers will of course still be needed, but for homes, expect the desktop tower to disappear, and probably for tablets and notebooks to lose their processors and drives. For extra storage, NAS and home file servers will become more and more common for storing movies and music collections. This has already started, Seagate and Western Digital already sell network connected backup drives, which is just a single drive NAS. Expect all of that to change some as well though, as file servers and NAS boxes don't need a lot of power, you can already run them from a phone, too.
The old saying, everything old becomes new again...
This is basically a return to "dumb terminals", where you have an interface to a mainframe, except in this case, your phone serves as the mainframe. This is why Microsoft is in panic mode and pushing Windows 8 and why Intel is getting into ARM. They both MUST get into the phone market before they become relegated to strictly server rooms and workstations. Intel knows they waited too long and MS is trying to leverage their desktop OS into a phone/tablet OS, which as thus far been a disaster for them.
All those people who (some from the get go) predicted the death of the desktop... Were morons. You have to have something to replace it, something not necessarily faster or more powerful, but something relatively capable, and much more convenient. Until now, there really wasn't anything capable of it. Yes, you could use a laptop as a desktop, but it was a hassle and only offered a minimal experience. It wasn't enough and you had to buy the notebook and adapters. Everyone pretty much has a phone and they already destroyed the GPS market and MP3 player market. Now they are aimed squarely at console gaming, and once that is done, desktops will be next. While it sounds revolutionary, it's actually more evolutionary, as I said, the basics are already there.
